The Intrinsic Value Podcast, on its third week of seeking portfolio candidates, introduces Ulta Beauty (ULTA) as a potential addition. After passing on Madison Square Garden Sports and Coupang due to valuation and competency concerns respectively, host Sean O'Malley highlights Ulta's impressive financial track record: over 50% average Return on Equity, 26%+ Return on Invested Capital, 14% decade-long revenue growth, 42% gross margins, and a reasonable P/E with a 5%+ free cash flow yield. These metrics, alongside a past investment by Berkshire Hathaway, make Ulta a compelling candidate.
Ulta, founded in 1990, is a major brick-and-mortar cosmetics retailer in the U.S., offering a diverse range of hair, skin, body, makeup, and fragrance products. Its unique selling proposition has always been its "universal, practical beauty retailer" approach, blending both drugstore and high-end cosmetics under one roof, alongside salon and beauty services. Mary Dillon, CEO from 2013 to 2021, is credited with transforming Ulta into a digital leader, growing online sales from 0.5% to 25% of revenue, and solidifying relationships with both premium and emerging brands. Dillon's departure, and the subsequent retirement of her successor Dave Kimball (whose tenure saw a significant contraction in Ulta's P/E ratio), has led to Keisha Steelman taking the helm.
Currently, Ulta operates nearly 1,400 stores, with plans to reach 1,500-1,700, and has a strategic partnership with Target, hosting 500 mini-Ulta stores within its locations, with potential to expand to 800. The company targets "beauty enthusiasts," who represent 65% of shoppers and 80% of beauty spend, emphasizing beauty as self-care and wellness. Its stores feature open, bright layouts, often in power centers, and leverage technology like augmented reality in its app to enhance the shopping experience.
Ulta's robust loyalty program is a key competitive advantage, with over 44 million members accounting for 95% of sales. The tiered program (Platinum, Diamond) offers significant points back and exclusive benefits, making it more generous than competitors like Sephora, which targets a higher-end, luxury market. While Sephora has a larger global presence and social media following, Ulta holds its own, demonstrating strong brand resonance.
Financially, Ulta boasts net income margins of 11.5% and free cash flow margins over 9%, outperforming many brick-and-mortar retailers. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with low debt. While it doesn't manufacture its own products, relying on brand partners (top 10 account for over 50% of revenue), it benefits from vendor allowances that boost gross profit margins. Challenges include "shrink" (theft/damage), which impacted gross margins by 0.4% in 2023, and employee sentiment, with mixed reviews on Glassdoor regarding demanding expectations.
Using John Huber's framework for intrinsic value compounding, Ulta has historically reinvested about 27% of its earnings at approximately 70% returns on capital, leading to a net income compounding rate of about 17.5% annually. Despite this, its stock price appreciation has been hampered by a P/E ratio contraction from 32 in 2014 to around 17 today. Ulta has also been an aggressive share repurchaser, shrinking its share count by 3% annually, further enhancing shareholder value.
Looking ahead, O'Malley believes Ulta is attractively valued. Despite slowing growth post-pandemic and competitive pressures, he argues the market's current sentiment is overly pessimistic. Conservative projections, assuming earnings growth of just 2-8% annually and continued share buybacks, still yield acceptable annualized returns of 8-15%. The stock's current valuation, historically low P/E, and high free cash flow yield offer a strong margin of safety. While competitive risks (Amazon, Sephora, Target) and potential tariffs are acknowledged, Ulta's strong brand, customer loyalty, and ability to generate high returns on capital make it a "fairly safe pick with a good bit of upside potential."
Concluding that Ulta is likely undervalued, O'Malley decides to make it the first addition to the intrinsic value portfolio with a 5% weighting, expressing personal intent to invest.