莫尼什·帕伯莱（Monish Pabrai）是一位著名的投资者，也是《投资者播客网络》（The Investors Podcast Network）的挚友，拥有令人瞩目的投资记录。自1999年以来，他的旗舰基金年回报率接近12%——比标普500指数高出整整4个百分点。除了卓越的投资能力，帕伯莱还是一位天赋异禀的教师和作家，其著作《Dhandho投资者》尤为著名。他以“克隆”（cloning）和“围拢马车”（circling the wagons）等独特的思维模型而广受赞誉。 帕伯莱的核心理念围绕着“无耻地克隆”传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格的习惯和策略。他曾以65万美元竞拍下与巴菲特共进慈善午餐的机会，他认为“物有所值”，后来与芒格建立了深厚的友谊，每周一起打桥牌。这种与最优秀者的直接接触，深刻地影响了他的投资方法。 帕伯莱在2023年伯克希尔周末演讲中的一个核心主题是“围拢马车”。这个比喻灵感来源于19世纪的拓荒者，表示在不确定环境中采取的防御性策略。在投资中，它强调尽管做了很多决策，但只有一小部分（大约4%）对长期回报产生深远影响。巴菲特自己也承认，他大部分的资本配置决策都“平平无奇”，伯克希尔的非凡成功是由“大约十几个真正好的决策”推动的。帕伯莱解释说，关键不仅在于做出这些好的决策，更在于 *持续持有* 这些投资的纪律。这体现在一句格言中：“不要剪掉鲜花，却给杂草浇水。”像Naspers多年持有腾讯、尼克·斯利普（Nick Sleep）推荐持有亚马逊、好市多和伯克希尔，以及本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）从盖可（Geico）获得的卓越回报，都强调了识别大赢家并无限期持有的力量。少数几个“驿马车”（即大赢家）能够保护整个投资组合免受市场波动的影响，使其在几十年内以惊人的速度复利增长。 帕伯莱也从他的导师那里汲取了人生经验。他讲述了巴菲特衡量诚信的非传统“内在尺度”问题（是做最伟大的情人却被世人认为是糟糕的，还是反之）。另一个他所“克隆”的习惯是“拒绝”的力量。通过观察巴菲特几乎空荡荡的日程表，帕伯莱学会了保护自己的时间，专注于深度工作，而非无休止的会议。这种理念延伸到他的个人生活，他对人际关系进行严格筛选，重视质量而非数量，甚至邀请潜在的朋友喝“印度奶茶”（chai），以评估是否合得来。 他的投资方法优先考虑巨大的上涨潜力。帕伯莱对那些仅仅被低估10%的公司不感兴趣；他寻求五倍或更多回报的机会。他批评典型的基金经理持有过多股票、支付过高费用、交易过于频繁，导致“狂热的活动”却收效甚微。相反，帕伯莱体现出“极度的耐心”，他将自己比作一个在溪边等待“肥美多汁的鲑鱼”的渔夫。他避免像初创企业、IPO或做空这样复杂或本质上高风险的投资，更喜欢“简单、现有的业务”，这些业务风险低但具有高不确定性。 这引出了“Dhandho”概念——一个古吉拉特语词汇，意指创造财富的努力，或者，正如帕伯莱所定义的那样，找到“几乎没有风险却有巨大上涨潜力的赌注”。他用帕特尔家族的故事来说明这一点，这个印度家庭在1970年代经济衰退期间，用很少的资金，利用经济衰退购买了陷入困境的汽车旅馆，他们住在旅馆里以节省成本，并迅速扩大了他们的商业帝国。帕伯莱自己的Dhandho故事是他用极少的积蓄和刷爆的信用卡创办了一家软件公司，鉴于他当时年轻且没有家属，他认为破产的个人风险很低。Dhandho利用了卖家因不确定性而有出售动机的时机，为有耐心的投资者创造了机会。 最终，帕伯莱的历程强调了投资是一场游戏。要获胜，必须向最优秀的人学习，克隆他们的策略，拥抱极度的耐心，并专注于少数几个高确定性的赌注。他强调，真正的乐趣并非源于金钱，而是来自游戏本身引人入胜的挑战。正如他那句名言所说：“买入股票时你不会赚钱，卖出股票时你也不会赚钱。你赚钱是通过等待。”

Monish Pabrai, a renowned investor and close friend of The Investors Podcast Network, boasts an impressive track record, with his flagship fund returning nearly 12% annually since 1999 – a full 4% more than the S&P 500. Beyond his investment prowess, Pabrai is a gifted teacher and writer, notably with his book, *The Dhandho Investor*. He is celebrated for his unique mental models, including "cloning" and "circling the wagons." Pabrai's core philosophy revolves around shamelessly "cloning" the habits and tactics of legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. He famously paid $650,000 for a charity lunch with Buffett, which he deemed "worth every penny," and later developed a close friendship with Munger, playing bridge weekly. This direct exposure to the best has deeply influenced his approach. A central theme from Pabrai's 2023 Berkshire weekend talk is "circling the wagons." This metaphor, inspired by 19th-century pioneers, signifies a defensive maneuver in an uncertain environment. In investing, it highlights that while many decisions are made, only a small percentage (around 4%) profoundly impact long-term returns. Buffett himself admits most of his capital allocation decisions were "so-so," with "about a dozen truly good decisions" driving Berkshire's extraordinary success. The key, Pabrai explains, wasn't just making these good decisions, but the discipline to *continue holding* those investments. This is encapsulated in the adage: "don't cut the flowers and water the weeds." Examples like Naspers holding Tencent for years, Nick Sleep's recommendation to hold Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire, and Ben Graham's exceptional returns from Geico, all underscore the power of identifying big winners and holding them indefinitely. A few "stagecoaches" (big winners) can defend an entire portfolio from market volatility, allowing it to compound at remarkable rates over decades. Pabrai also draws life lessons from his mentors. He recounts Buffett's unconventional "internal yardstick" question (being the greatest lover but known as the worst, or vice versa) to gauge integrity. Another cloned habit is the power of "saying no." Observing Buffett's nearly empty calendar, Pabrai learned to protect his time, focusing on deep work rather than constant meetings. This ethos extends to his personal life, where he applies strict filtering to his relationships, valuing quality over quantity, even inviting potential connections for "chai" to assess compatibility. His investment approach prioritizes massive upside potential. Pabrai isn't interested in companies that are merely 10% undervalued; he seeks opportunities for fivefold returns or more. He criticizes typical money managers for owning too many stocks, paying too much, and trading too often, leading to "frenetic activity" with little reward. Instead, Pabrai embodies "extreme patience," comparing himself to a spearman waiting by a stream for a "fat juicy salmon." He avoids complex or inherently risky ventures like startups, IPOs, or shorting, preferring "simple existing businesses" with low risk but high uncertainty. This leads to the "Dhandho" concept – a Gujarati word for wealth-creating endeavors, or, as Pabrai defines it, finding "nearly risk-free bets with massive upside." He illustrates this with the story of the Patels, an Indian family who, with little capital, leveraged a recession to buy distressed motels in the 1970s, residing in them to save costs, and rapidly expanding their empire. Pabrai's own Dhandho story involves launching a software business with minimal savings and maxed-out credit cards, viewing bankruptcy as a low personal risk given his youth and lack of dependents. Dhandho capitalizes on moments when sellers are motivated by uncertainty, creating opportunities for patient investors. Ultimately, Pabrai's journey highlights that investing is a game. To win, one must learn from the best, clone their strategies, embrace extreme patience, and focus on a few high-conviction bets. He emphasizes that the real joy comes not from the money, but from the engaging challenge of the game itself. As he famously states, "You don't make money when you buy stocks and you don't make money when you sell stocks. You make money by waiting."