以下是内容的中文翻译： 由 Robert Leonard 主持的播客节目“千禧年投资”邀请了“投资者播客网络”的联合创始人 Preston Pysh，作为两集深入探讨比特币、区块链和加密货币系列的第一部分。Robert 承认他个人对此持怀疑态度，并且知之甚少，甚至讲述了一个他购买比特币后又迅速卖掉的故事，因为他“感觉不适”且不理解它。Preston 以其价值投资背景和对沃伦·巴菲特的研究而闻名，他以充满热情且看涨的视角探讨这些话题，这引起了 Robert 的浓厚兴趣。 Preston 首先将区块链定义为一种能够实现“数字稀缺性”的技术，类似于发送一张数字图片，但不同于传统的数字副本，区块链确保了只有一个独特的副本存在。这一基本概念促成了“数字单位”或加密货币的创建。比特币尤其被强调为最去中心化的加密货币，它运行在一个协议上，总供应量固定为 2100 万单位（目前约为 1820 万）。与可以随意印刷的法定货币不同，增加比特币的供应量需要所有网络参与者的普遍同意，这使得其难度极高。Preston 澄清道，虽然比特币的总量有上限，但单个单位可以被分割成非常小的分数（小至 10 的负八次方），确保了其在全球范围内的充足流通。 讨论随后转向比特币的“市值”，这是一个通常与股票相关的术语。Preston 解释说，市值是通过将流通供应量（例如 1820 万比特币）乘以每个比特币的当前价格（例如 10,211 美元）计算得出的，从而得出大约 1860 亿美元的市值。他指出，虽然随着新币的挖出，比特币确实存在少量通货膨胀率，但与法定货币的通胀率相比，它显著更低且更可预测，尤其是在考虑到丢失的币之后。 讨论的一个关键点是各种加密货币的激增，以及为什么比特币被认为是潜在的“明显赢家”。Preston 强调了“网络效应”的力量，他打了个比方：iPhone 用户在相互通信时会显示蓝色文本气泡，而非 iPhone 用户则显示绿色。这为更广泛地采用相同的技术创造了激励。比特币庞大的用户基础以及围绕它构建解决方案（如用于比特币交易的移动应用程序）的工程师生态系统的不断发展，都证明了强大的网络效应。他提到了 Trace Mayer 关于比特币网络效应的研究，以及 Twitter 上一位名叫“100 Trillion USD”的量化分析师开发的“存量-流量模型”（stock-to-flow model）。该模型通过比较现有供应量（存量）与年度新增供应量（流量），显示出与比特币价格惊人的 95% R 方相关性，预测在其即将到来的减半事件后 1-1.5 年内，价格将达到 100,000 美元。这一高度相关的模型，得到了协整测试（co-integration test）的支持，表明了稀缺性与价值之间存在根本关系。 Preston 还澄清了其他“比特币”变体（如比特币现金 Bitcoin Cash 和比特币 SV Bitcoin SV）的存在，解释说它们是由于对协议变更（例如，区块大小）存在分歧而产生的“分叉”。市场在网络效应的驱动下，最终选择了原始比特币，因为它具有强大的去中心化和安全原则。他将比特币与瑞波币（Ripple）等中心化加密货币进行了对比，他称瑞波币是“预挖矿”的，并由一个中央基金会操纵，缺乏使比特币稳健的“工作量证明”机制和固定的货币基础。 Robert 提出的最关键问题是：“我们为什么需要一种新的货币形式？美元有什么问题？”Preston 解释说，问题不在于在星巴克进行更便捷的交易，而在于全球法定货币体系的根本性缺陷。他回顾了一段历史：始于 1944 年的布雷顿森林协定（Bretton Woods Agreement），该协定将美元与黄金挂钩，并将其他世界货币与美元挂钩，从而创建了一个看似固定的货币基础。然而，他用大富翁（Monopoly）游戏做比喻，说明中央银行（美国政府）如何通过操纵其货币供应量（1944-1971 年间的货币乘数）在全球贸易中获得不公平的优势。这最终导致美国在 1971 年脱离金本位制，因为它没有足够的黄金来支撑其印刷的货币，标志着瑞·达利奥（Ray Dalio）所称的“缓慢违约”。 自那时起，全球货币已脱离任何稀缺商品，这使得中央银行可以通过量化宽松和调整利率来操纵货币政策。这导致了一个利率处于历史低位，甚至在某些国家出现负利率的时代。Preston 强调了全球令人震惊的 15 万亿美元负收益债券，这代表着“一份保证资本损失的双方合同”。他认为，中央银行持续向经济注入流动性，主要通过资产通胀使“顶层”受益，正在导致一种类似于资产价格恶性通货膨胀的局面，这让人联想到德国的魏玛共和国。在这种环境下，像比特币这样的固定货币基础成为了必不可少的对冲工具，类似于过去货币贬值时代中的黄金。他最后坚定地指出，比特币是“当今的黄金”，它提供了卓越的特性，例如便捷、廉价和安全的全球转移，以及可验证的纯度，远远超越了实物黄金的局限性。

This podcast episode, "Millennial Investing" hosted by Robert Leonard, features Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor's Podcast Network, in the first part of a two-episode deep dive into Bitcoin, blockchain, and cryptocurrencies. Robert admits his personal skepticism and limited knowledge, even recounting a story of buying and quickly selling a Bitcoin because he "felt sick" and didn't understand it. Preston, known for his value investing background and work on Warren Buffett, approaches these topics with a passionate and bullish perspective, intriguing Robert. Preston begins by defining blockchain as a technology that enables digital scarcity, similar to sending a digital picture where only one unique copy can exist, unlike traditional digital copies. This fundamental concept allows for the creation of "digital units" or cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, in particular, is highlighted as the most decentralized cryptocurrency, operating on a protocol with a fixed supply of 21 million units (currently around 18.2 million). Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will, increasing Bitcoin's supply would require universal agreement from all network participants, making it prohibitively difficult. Preston clarifies that while the total number of Bitcoins is capped, individual units can be divided into very small fractions (down to 10 to the negative eighth power), ensuring ample supply for global distribution. The discussion then moves to Bitcoin's "market cap," a term usually associated with stocks. Preston explains it's calculated by multiplying the circulating supply (e.g., 18.2 million Bitcoins) by the current price per Bitcoin (e.g., $10,211), yielding a market cap of approximately $186 billion. He notes that while Bitcoin does have a small inflation rate as new coins are mined, it's significantly lower and more predictable than the inflation rates of fiat currencies, especially when accounting for lost coins. A key point addressed is the proliferation of various cryptocurrencies and why Bitcoin is considered the potential "clear winner." Preston emphasizes the power of "network effects," using the analogy of iPhone users having blue text bubbles when communicating with each other versus green for non-iPhone users. This creates an incentive for wider adoption of the same technology. Bitcoin's extensive user base and the growing ecosystem of engineers building solutions around it (like mobile apps for transacting Bitcoin) demonstrate a strong network effect. He references Trace Mayer's work on Bitcoin's network effects and the "stock-to-flow" model developed by a quant known as "100 Trillion USD" on Twitter. This model, which compares the existing supply (stock) to the annual new supply (flow), shows an astounding 95% R-squared correlation with Bitcoin's price, predicting a price of $100,000 within 1-1.5 years after its upcoming halving event. This highly correlated model, backed by a co-integration test, suggests a fundamental relationship between scarcity and value. Preston also clarifies the existence of other "Bitcoin" variations like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV, explaining they are "forks" resulting from disagreements over protocol changes (e.g., block size). The market, driven by network effects, ultimately chose the original Bitcoin due to its strong decentralization and security principles. He contrasts Bitcoin with centralized cryptocurrencies like Ripple, which he describes as "pre-mined" and manipulated by a central foundation, lacking the proof-of-work mechanism and fixed monetary baseline that make Bitcoin robust. The most crucial question posed by Robert is, "Why do we even need a new form of money? What's wrong with the US dollar?" Preston explains that the problem isn't about easier transactions at Starbucks, but rather a fundamental flaw in the global fiat currency system. He provides a history lesson, beginning with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, which pegged the US dollar to gold and other world currencies to the dollar, creating a seemingly fixed monetary baseline. However, he illustrates with a Monopoly analogy how a central banker (the US government) manipulating its money supply (money multiplier 1944-1971) could gain an unfair advantage in global trade. This ultimately led to the US coming off the gold standard in 1971, as it didn't have enough gold to back its printed currency, marking what Ray Dalio called a "slow-motion default." Since then, global currencies have been untethered from any scarce commodity, allowing central banks to manipulate monetary policy through quantitative easing and adjusting interest rates. This has led to an era where interest rates are historically low, and in some countries, even negative. Preston highlights the astonishing $15 trillion in negative-yielding bonds globally, representing "a contract between two parties that guarantees the loss of capital." He argues that central banks' continued insertion of liquidity into the economy, primarily benefiting the "top" through asset inflation, is leading to a situation akin to hyperinflation in asset prices, reminiscent of Germany's Weimar Republic. In this environment, a fixed monetary baseline like Bitcoin becomes an essential hedge, analogous to gold in past eras of currency debasement. He concludes by firmly stating that Bitcoin is "today's gold," offering superior features like easy, cheap, and secure global transfer and verifiable purity, far surpassing the limitations of physical gold.