You don't actually know what your future self wants | Shankar Vendantam
发布时间 来源
Episode 设置
摘要
"You are constantly becoming a new person," says journalist Shankar Vendantam. This week we’re revisiting a talk full of beautiful storytelling, where Vendantam explains the profound impact of something he calls the "illusion of continuity" — the belief that our future selves will share the same views, perspectives and hopes as our current selves — and shows how we can more proactively craft the people we are to become. Stay tuned after the talk as Modupe shares a clear-eyed and empowering perspective on your future self’s feelings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
在1999年，我在商学院的第一年参加了一门必修的领导力课程。在这门课的最后作业中，我们需要写一篇两页的回忆录，描述我们在毕业后10年，也就是2011年的生活。教授要求我们准备两份，一份上交，一份留作自用。我至今还留着我的那份。我的回忆录中写到，2011年时我会在西非居住，结婚并有三个孩子，为联合国儿童基金会工作。这对我来说并不奇怪，因为当时我认识的人中，几乎没有中年但没有孩子的人，而且我在进入商学院前还在非营利组织工作过。所以这些细节对我来说非常合理。然而，毕业10年后，我的生活完全不是这样。现在的生活更是截然不同。我住在家乡纽约市，是一名商学院教授。我结过婚，并且很开心地选择了不生孩子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In my first year of business school, way back in 1999, I took a required leadership course where our final assignment was to write a two-page memoir detailing what we would be doing in 2011, 10 years after graduation. My professor had us bring in two copies, one to turn in and one to keep. And yes, I still have mine. My memoir says that by 2011, I would be married with three kids, living in West Africa, working for UNICEF. It's no surprise to me that this was my vision. I knew very few people at the time who were in their mid-30s, without kids, and I had done some work in the nonprofit world before business school. So all the little details just made sense. But 10 years after graduation, my life looked nothing like that. And my life today is even more different. I live in my hometown, New York City. I'm a business school professor. I've been married. And I'm happily child-free.
这是一个提醒，让我们意识到预测未来是多么困难。那么，为什么我们却如此容易认为今天的我们会与10年后的我们是同一个人呢？我是Madhupia Akinola，这里是TED商业。今天的演讲者是Shankar Vedantam，他是一位记者，也是播客《Hidden Brain》的主持人，该节目探索驱动人类行为的潜意识模式。在这次演讲中，Shankar解释了为什么我们相信未来的自己会与现在有相同的观点、看法和期望，并展示了我们如何能够更积极地塑造未来的自己。演讲结束后，我还将分享我们如何在预测未来情绪时也可能出错。但在此之前，我们先稍作休息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Which is such a reminder that it's so hard to know what the future will hold. So why is it so easy for us to assume that who we are today is the same person we'll be 10 years from now? I'm Madhupia Akinola. This is Ted Business. Our speaker today is Shankar Vedantam, journalist and host of the podcast Hidden Brain, a show that explores the unconscious patterns that drive human behavior. In this talk, Shankar explains why we believe our future selves will share the same views, perspectives, and hopes as our current selves. And shows how we can more proactively craft the people we are to become. Then after the talk, I'll share how we can be wrong about our future emotions too. But first, a quick break.
当我12岁时，我在踢足球时摔断了脚。我那天晚上回家后没有告诉父母，因为第二天我爸爸要带我去看电影，一部关于足球的电影。我担心如果告诉父母我的脚受伤了，他们会带我去看医生。我不想去看医生，我只想去看电影。第二天早上，我爸爸说，今天天气不错，我们为什么不步行去电影院呢？那是1英里之外。在路上，他问我为什么一瘸一拐的，我告诉他我的鞋里有东西。电影非常精彩，讲述了一些足球巨星，尤其是巴西球星的故事，我非常兴奋。电影结束后，我告诉爸爸我的脚受伤了。他带我去看了骨科医生，医生把我的脚打了三周的石膏。我今天讲这个故事，是因为四十年后，我已经不再是一个足球迷了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When I was 12 years old, I fractured my foot playing soccer. I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night, because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie. A soccer movie. I worried that if I told my parents about the foot, they would take me to see a doctor. I didn't want to see a doctor. I wanted to see the movie. The next morning, my dad goes, it's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater? It was a mile away. As we go, he says, why are you limping? I tell him I have something in my shoe. The movie was spectacular. It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars, great Brazilian players. I was ecstatic. At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot. He took me to see an orthopedic doctor who put my foot in a cast for three weeks. I tell you the story today because four decades later, I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.
今天，我对运动的狂热关注转向了另一种足球。现在，我12岁的自己不仅会觉得这难以理解，还会认为这是背叛。你可能会说，我们从12岁起就开始改变了。那让我快进十年，到我22岁的时候。当时，我刚刚在印度南部成为一名电子工程师。我完全没有想到，三十年后，我会生活在美国，成为一名记者，并主持一档名为《隐藏大脑》的播客节目。这是一档关于人类行为及如何将心理科学应用于生活的节目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football. Now, my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible. My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal. Now, you might say we all changed from the time we're 12. So let me fast forward a decade. When I was 22, I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India. I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States, that I would be a journalist, and that I would be the host of a podcast called Hidden Brain. It's a show about human behavior and how to apply psychological science to our lives.
在我大学毕业的时候，我们还没有播客。我们也没有随身携带智能手机。所以，我的未来不仅是不确定的，甚至是无法预知的。过去三年中，我们都经历了这种感觉，当我们慢慢从新冠疫情中走出来时。如果我们回顾三年前疫情前的自己，我们能看到自己的变化。我们能看到焦虑、孤独以及生活和工作中的各种动荡如何改变了我们，改变了我们的态度和观点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, we didn't have podcasts when I graduated from college. We didn't walk around with smartphones in our pockets. So my future was not just unknown, it was unknowable. All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic. If we think about the people we used to be three years ago before the pandemic, we can see how we have changed. We can see how anxiety and isolation and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods, how this has changed us, changed our outlook, changed our perspective.
但是这里有一个矛盾，这个矛盾在于，当我们回顾过去时，我们可以看到自己经历了巨大的改变。然而，当我们展望未来时，我们往往认为自己会一直保持不变。当然，我们想象世界会不同，知道人工智能和气候变化将带来一个非常不同的世界。但我们没有想象到自己在未来会有不同的视角、不同的观点和不同的喜好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But there is a paradox here, and the paradox is when we look backwards, we can see enormous changes in who we have become. But when we look forwards, we tend to imagine that we are going to be the same people in the future. Now, sure, we imagine the world is going to be different. We know that AI and climate change is going to mean for a very different world. But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives, different views, different preferences in the future.
我称之为连续性的错觉。 我认为这种现象出现的一个原因是，当我们回顾过去时，与今天的自己相比，过去的自己形成了鲜明的对比。 我们能很清楚地看到自己已经变成了不同的人。 而当我们展望未来时，可以想象自己会稍微变老、头发会变白。但我们并不会设想自己会有根本不同的看法或观点，也并不会认为自己会变成不同的人。因此，这些变化看起来更加模糊不清。 今天，我想向你们证明，这种错觉有着深远的影响，不仅仅局限于我们是否成为足球运动员或播客主持人，它还与生死攸关的问题有关。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I call this the illusion of continuity. And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards, the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear. We can see it so clearly that we have become different people. When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older, a little grayer. But we don't imagine fundamentally that we're going to have a different outlook or a different perspective, that we're going to be different people. And so those changes seem more amorphous. I want to make the case to you today that this illusion has profound consequences, not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts, but for matters involving life and death.
让我向你介绍约翰和史蒂芬妮·林克。几年前，我们为《隐藏的大脑》做过一个关于他们的报道。这张照片拍摄于1971年，他们结婚的那天。约翰和史蒂芬妮当时私奔，并在马萨诸塞州的剑桥市政厅结婚。约翰那时22岁，史蒂芬妮19岁。约翰告诉我，他们结婚后曾到全国各地旅行，最终定居在北卡罗来纳州。约翰成为了一名高中篮球教练，史蒂芬妮则成为了一名护士。由于他们住在偏远的地区，她经常需要上门探访病人。她见到的许多病人病情都很严重，身患绝症，生活质量很低。史蒂芬妮每次从探访回来时，情绪常常很受影响，她会对约翰说，如果我得了绝症，请不要采取任何措施来延长我的痛苦。我更看重生活的质量而不是长度。在她情绪激动的时候，她甚至会说，约翰，如果我病得那么重，就一枪毙了我吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinker. We did a story about them for Hidden Brain some years ago. This photograph was taken in 1971 on their wedding day. John and Stephanie had just eloped, gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts. He was 22. She was 19. John told me that after they got married, they traveled to different parts of the country. They eventually settled in North Carolina. John became a high school basketball coach. Stephanie became a nurse. And because they lived in a rural part of the state, she would often make house visits to patients. Many of the patients she saw were very sick. They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life. And when Stephanie came home from these visits, she was often shaken. And she would tell John, John, if I ever get a terminal illness, please do nothing to prolong my suffering. I care more about quality of life than quantity of life. In her more dramatic moments, she would say, John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me. Just shoot me.
约翰·林克总是满怀爱意地看着他的妻子，他健康的妻子，他会说，好了，斯蒂芬。时光飞逝了几十年，在她五十多岁的时候，斯蒂芬妮开始说话含糊不清。她去看医生，经过一些检查后，医生诊断她患上了肌萎缩侧索硬化症（ALS），也称为卢·盖里克病。医生告诉她这种病是致命的，目前无法治愈，并告知她将来有一天她将无法自主呼吸。但斯蒂芬妮一如既往地积极，从生活中尽可能多地汲取快乐和乐趣。她与朋友和家人共度时光。随着病情加重，斯蒂芬妮和约翰一起去了他们都喜欢的一座美丽的海滩。然而，最终有一天，斯蒂芬妮真的无法自主呼吸了。她大口喘着气，约翰赶紧带她去医院。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And John Rinker would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife, and he would say, OK, Steph. OK. Fast forward a couple of decades. In her late 50s, Stephanie begins to slur her words. She goes to see a doctor who runs some tests, and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease. He tells her it's fatal, it's incurable, and he tells her that a day is going to come when she is no longer able to breathe on her own. Stephanie, being Stephanie, decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can. She spends time with friends and family. As she gets sicker, she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love. But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe. She is gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.
在医院里，一位护士问斯蒂芬妮（史蒂芬女士），您想让我们给您上呼吸机吗？斯蒂芬妮回答说想。约翰感到大吃一惊。他们就这个问题已经谈了30年了，他肯定这不是斯蒂芬妮真正想要的。但他什么也没说。第二天早上，他问：“斯蒂芬，昨天护士问你是否想上呼吸机时，你说想，这真的是你的决定吗？”斯蒂芬妮·瑞克回答说是的。也许有人会说，如果斯蒂芬妮事先写好了一份预先指示，或者她在失去意识的情况下被送进医院，当护士问约翰，他的妻子会希望怎样做时，约翰会毫不犹豫地说：“她当然不想上呼吸机。我们应该尽量让她感到舒适，让她能够有尊严地离世。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And a nurse at the hospital asks Stephanie, Mrs. Rinker, would you like us to put you on a ventilator? And Stephanie says yes. John is flabbergasted. They've been having this conversation for 30 years. Surely that's not what Stephanie wants. He doesn't say anything. The next morning, he says, Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator and you said yes, is that really what you want? And Stephanie Rinker said yes. Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive, if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious, if the nurse had asked John, what is it your wife would want, John, without hesitation, would have said, of course she does not want to go on a ventilator. We should try and figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible so that she can die with dignity.
当然，这只解决了法律上的难题，但并没有解决这里的伦理问题。伦理问题在于，39岁的斯蒂芬妮在身体健康时，并没有真正设想过59岁身患绝症、呼吸困难的自己会希望什么。对年长的斯蒂芬妮而言，年轻时的她就像是个陌生人，一个试图为她做出生死决定的陌生人。多年来，哲学家们一直在讨论一个思维实验，有时被称为忒修斯之船。伟大的战士忒修斯在完成冒险后回到家乡，他的船停泊在港口作为纪念。然而，随着岁月流逝，船上的部件逐渐腐朽和老化，因此被新的木板替换。最终，忒修斯之船的每一个部分都变成了新的材料。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum. It doesn't solve the ethical problem here. And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy, had no real conception of what Stephanie, at age 59, with a terminal illness, gasping for air, would really want. For the older Stephanie, her younger self might as well have been a stranger, a stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her. Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment. It's sometimes called the ship of Theseus. The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits. His ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial. And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay. And as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks. Until eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus was built from something new.
哲学家们曾问过一个问题：如果忒修斯之船的每一个部分都是新的，那这艘船还是忒修斯之船吗？你我就是忒修斯之船的活生生的例子。我们的自身不断地在更新。你十年前的人已与现在的你不同。从生物学角度，你已经变成了不同的人。但我相信，在心理层面上，发生了一些更加深刻的变化。因为你可以说，一艘船不仅仅是一堆木板的组合。一个身体也不仅仅是细胞的组合。正是木板的组织方式构成了船，细胞的组织方式构成了身体。如果你保持那种组织方式，即使木板或细胞进行了更换，仍然还是同一艘船，同一个身体。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And philosophers have asked the question, if every part of the ship of Theseus is new, is this still the ship of Theseus? You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus. Ourselves turn over all the time. The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today. Biologically, you have become a different person. But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level. Because you could argue, a ship is not just a collection of planks. A body is not just a collection of cells. It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship. It's the organization of the cells that make the body. If you preserve the organization, even if you swap planks in, in and out, or cells in and out, you still have the ship. You still have the same body.
在心理层面上，每一个新的层次都与之前的不同。我们常听说的大脑的可塑性意味着，在不断变化的过程中，你一直在成为一个新的人。这对我们生活的各个方面都有着深远的影响。比如，我有这样的错觉：12岁的我想成为足球明星，52岁的我是一个播客主持人，而82岁的我希望能在美丽的海滩上生活——这些都是同一个人。真的是这样吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But at a psychological level, each new layer that's put down is not identical to the one that came before it. The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about means that, on an ongoing basis, you are constantly becoming a new person. This has profound consequences for so many different aspects of our lives. You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar, who wanted to be a soccer star, and 52-year-old Shankar, who is the podcast host, and 82-year-old Shankar, who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach, that these are all the same person. Is that really true?
让我们先把哲学问题放一边，改天再讨论。我来跟你说说这个问题在实践中的一些挑战。当我们对别人做出承诺时，比如承诺要爱一个人直到死亡将我们分开，其实是要求未来的自己去履行这个约定。未来的我们可能会有不同的观点、不同的看法、不同的期待。而当我们把人关起来并丢掉钥匙时，也要意识到，30年后被关押的人也会变得不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day, and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges of this problem. When we make promises to other people, when we promise to love someone till death do us part, we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep. Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes. When we lock people up and throw away the key, it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years from now.
三十年后，我们将变得不同。我们对报复和复仇的需求可能不会像今天这样。当我们制定法律时，通常是为了建设一个更好的国家，改善我们的国家。但任何存在了几十年的国家，都有许多当初制定时合理的法律。事实上，这些法律在当时被视为开明。然而，如今它们看起来过时、荒唐，甚至令人无法接受。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We are going to be different 30 years from now. Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today. When we pass laws, we often do so with an intent of making a better country, improving our country. But any country that's been around for a few decades has numerous laws in the books that made perfect sense when they were crafted. In fact, they were seen as enlightened when they were crafted. And today they seem antiquated or absurd or even unconscionable.
所有这些例子都源于同一个问题，那就是我们认为自己是历史的终结，未来只不过是现在的延续。对此，我有三点建议。这个问题相当复杂，因为我们大多数人花费很多时间在让未来的自己感到幸福，却很少停下来问问自己，20或30年后，我们的未来会不会对现在的自己感到困惑或不满。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And all of these examples stem from the same problem, which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history. That the future is only going to be more of the same. I have three pieces of advice on how to wrestle with this wicked problem. And it is a wicked problem, because all of us spend so much of our lives trying to make our future selves happy. We don't stop to ask, is it possible that in 20 or 30 years, our future selves are going to look back at us with bewilderment, with resentment?
将来我们会问自己：“你怎么会认为那是我想要的？”我给出的第一个建议是，如果你接受你将在30年后成为一个不同的人的观点，那么你应该积极塑造未来的自己。你应该成为未来自己的策展人，成为未来自己的设计师。那么，这是什么意思呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That our future selves will ask us, what made you possibly think that that is what I would want? The first piece of advice I have is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person in 30 years' time, you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become. You should be the curator of your future self. You should be the architect of your future self. Well, what does that mean?
和不仅仅是你的朋友和家人在一起，花点时间与其他人交流。参与一些你平时不常做的兴趣爱好和职业追求。拓宽你的视野，因为你终将成为一个不一样的人。既然如此，不如亲自决定这个人会是什么样子。我的第一个建议就是保持好奇心。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family. Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits that are not just what you do regularly. Spend your horizons, because you're going to become someone different. You might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be. So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.
其次，当我们在社交媒体、政治论坛或晚宴上发表言论时，请记住，可能与我们意见相左的人中，包括未来的我们自己。因此，当我们以极大的确定性和信心表达观点时，别忘了加入一丝谦逊。顺便说一句，这不仅仅适用于个人层面，也同样适用于组织层面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums or at dinner parties, let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us are our own future selves. So when we express views with great certitude and great confidence, let's remember to add a touch of humility. This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level. It's also true at an organizational level.
不久前，我和一位年轻且出色的女士交谈。她刚刚在她的单位获得了一个权威职位，并且有很多理想主义的想法，希望改变她的组织。她问我，该如何进行这些改变，以确保将来不会有人推翻她所做的改革。这是很人性化的想法，但它源自于一种错误的信念，即我们对历史的看法是最终的结论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I was speaking some time ago with this young woman, wonderful woman. She had just reached a position of authority at her organization, and she had many idealistic ideas of how she wanted to change her organization. And she asked me, How do we make these changes so that in the future, no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made? And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief that our perspective on history is the final word.
很简单，这是错的。第三点，我已经给出了一些方式，说明未来的我们会比现在的我们更加虚弱和衰老。这是事实，也是其中的一部分。但是，这只是故事的一部分。未来的我们也将拥有我们今天不具备的能力、力量和智慧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And quite simply, this is wrong. Three, I've given you a number of ways in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today. And that is true. That is part of the story. But it is only a part of the story. Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths and wisdom that we do not possess today.
所以当我们面对机会而犹豫不决时，比如我对自己说，我觉得自己没有能力辞职创办自己的公司，或者我对自己说，我觉得自己没办法在52岁时学习一种乐器，或者我对自己说，我觉得自己无法照顾一个有残疾的孩子，其实我们真正应该说的是，“今天我可能还做不到这些事情。” 这并不意味着我明天也无法做到。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate, when I tell myself, I don't think I have it in me to quit my job and start my own company, or I tell myself, I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument at the age of 52, or I tell myself, I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child, what we really should be saying is, I don't have the capacity to do those things today. That doesn't mean I won't have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.
所以，第三个课程就是要勇敢。我相信，如果你能做到这三件事：保持好奇心、练习谦逊以及保持勇敢，那么未来的你在20或30年后回顾现在的自己时，不会是带着怨恨或困惑，而是会对你说，谢谢你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So lesson number three is to be brave. I believe that if you can do these three things, if you can stay curious, if you can practice humility, and you can be brave, then your future self will look back at you in 20 or 30 years, will look back not with resentment or bewilderment, but we'll look back at you and say, thank you.
这次谈话让我心里感到温暖，它提醒我们要对自己温柔一些。我们不可能什么都知道，犯错是正常的。事实上，不仅仅是可以犯错，我们对自己未来的认知出错也是常态。还有一件我们经常弄错的事情，就是我们未来的感受。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This talk just warmed my heart, as it's a reminder to be gentle with ourselves. We can't know everything, and it's okay to be wrong. It's not just okay to be wrong. It's normal to be wrong about our future selves. You know another thing that we also get wrong? How our future selves will feel.
哈佛大学的社会心理学家丹尼尔·吉尔伯特研究了一种叫做情感预测的概念。他将其定义为对一个人未来情感的预估。吉尔伯特指出，当我们尝试预测自己的情感时，通常会考虑这些情感是积极的还是消极的，它们会持续多久，我们会有多强烈的感受，以及具体会感受到哪些情感。是内疚？愤怒？还是兴奋？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Daniel Gilbert, a social psychologist at Harvard University, has studied this concept of affective forecasting, which he defines as the prediction of one's future emotions. Gilbert highlights that when we try to predict our emotions, we generally think about whether these emotions will be negative or positive, how long these emotions will last, how intensely we'll feel them, and which specific emotions we'll feel. Will it be guilt? Anger? Excitement?
你知道吗？我们在预测自己的情绪方面很不擅长。以下是一些例子来说明这个概念：我们可能会期待完成一项大型工作项目后，会因此更加热爱工作；害怕去看牙医；期待自己在喜欢的运动队获胜时会感到激动不已。然而，我们都知道，很多时候当那个大项目完成后，你可能会问自己：现在我的目标是什么呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And guess what? We are very ineffective at predicting our emotions. Here are some examples that highlight this concept. Anticipating that completing a big project at work will make you love your job. Dreading a visit to the dentist. Expecting you'll feel thrilled when your favorite sports team wins. And we all know that often, when that big project is done, you're left wondering, what's my purpose now?
那次让人害怕的牙医拜访结果却很好。你甚至可能惊讶地发现自己没有蛀牙。你的运动队赢了比赛，但随后你感到难过，因为赛季快结束了。我们有时是糟糕的预言家。为什么会这样呢？因为我们有偏见，而且经常高估自己情绪的强烈程度和这些情绪对我们的长期影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That dreaded dentist visit ends up being fine. Heck, you might be surprised that you have no cavities. Your sports team wins, and then you're sad, because the season's almost over. We can be poor forecasters. And what are some reasons for this? Well, because we're biased, and we often overestimate the intensity of our emotions and the long-term impact they will have on us.
我们常常不太擅长回忆过去发生的事情，因此可能错误预测自己对类似事件的未来情感反应。而且，我们常常忘记自己会在多大程度上调整对重大事件的想法和感受，无论是有意识还是无意识地调整。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We can be poor at recalling memories of past events, and therefore misforecast our future emotional reactions to similar events. And we forget about how much we adjust our thoughts and feelings in response to big things that happen to us, both consciously and unconsciously.
因此，现在知道我们很难准确预测未来的自己和情感，请想象一下：根据我以前的设想，我本该已经结婚，育有三个孩子，住在西非，还在运营联合国儿童基金会。但实际上，我现在的生活和当初的想象截然不同，而我非常热爱现在的生活，并且从中获得了很多快乐。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So now knowing that we can poorly forecast our future selves and our emotions, recall, I'm supposed to be married with three kids, living in West Africa, and running UNICEF, which is dramatically different from my current life, which I love and brings me so much joy.
从尚卡尔的演讲和对情感预测的研究中可以汲取的一个观点是，你认为完美适合自己的工作，可能是基于对未来自己或对那个职位感受的错误理解。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One thing to take from Shankar's talk and the research on affective forecasting is, okay, maybe the job you thought was perfect for you was based on an inaccurate understanding of who you would become or how you would feel about that position in the future.
或许是时候开始更多地探寻你现在是谁了。谦逊地承认我们在预测方面的不足，接受你当时对未来的不了解并不意味着你现在有问题，也不是因为工作不如意。勇敢一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So maybe it's time to be more curious about who you are now. Show some humility about how poor we are at forecasting and embrace that your lack of knowledge then isn't indicative of something wrong with you now or that darn job. And be brave.
迈出第一步，去发现现在的自己会认为比过去更有趣的事物。可能有更大更好的事情在等着你。寻找它就靠你自己了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Take the initial step to discover what your present self would think is more enjoyable than your past self. There truly could be something bigger and better waiting for you. It's up to you to find it.
今天的节目就到这里。本集由Kiara Powell制作，Matias Salas负责事实核查。特别感谢Anna Phelan、Michelle Quint、Corey Hajim，以及Colin Helms。我是Madhu Bakanola。下周再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's it for today. This episode was produced by Kiara Powell and fact-checked by Matias Salas. Special thanks to Anna Phelan, Michelle Quint, Corey Hajim, and Colin Helms. I'm Madhu Bakanola. Talk to you again next week.