Markets Weekly June 6, 2026
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摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:40 - Market Shock
14:27 - Project 2025 Fed
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，朋友们。今天是6月6号，欢迎收听《市场周报》。上周我们告诉大家，市场变得有点无聊，我也提醒大家，市场的调整可能会像小偷夜袭一样突然到来。果然，在上周五，市场非常激动，我们迎来了一个波动事件。今天，我们首先来聊聊市场的最新动态，以及一些关于就业数据的情况。其次，我们还得谈谈“2025计划”，因为有报道称Kevin正在招募人员，而且他聘用了写“2025计划”中美联储章节的作者作为他的顾问。我觉得这会让我们更明白一个“Kevin式美联储”的意义。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is June 6th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week, we were telling everyone about how boring the markets had become. I was warning you that the correction will come like a thief in the night. And on Friday, voila, very exciting day. We had a vol event. So today, first, let's talk about what's happening in the markets, as well as a bit on the labor data front. And secondly, we have to talk about Project 2025, because reporting suggests that Kevin is staffing up, and he hired the author of the Fed chapter of Project 2025 as one of his advisors. So I think that's going to shed light on what a Kevin Fed would mean.
好的，首先讲讲市场。如果回顾过去几周的市场表现，基本上都是一路上涨，对吧？就像我们一直讨论的那样，这都是杠杆和动量的结果。不是那些奇怪的盈利报告或其他因素。市场就是杠杆和动量的体现。在过去，人们通过保证金买股票来加杠杆，这可以推动市场上涨。但今天，杠杆主要通过看涨期权表现出来。当你查看单只股票的看涨期权时，不论是通过隐含波动率还是通过看涨偏斜等指标，你可以很清楚地看到，市场上有很多人都在大量买入看涨期权，特别是在像美光这样的芯片类股票上。这基本上推动了所有股票的上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the markets. So if you look back at the markets the past few weeks, it's basically gone straight up, right? Basically, like we've been talking about, it's all leverage and momentum, right? None of this bizarre earnings, whatever. Markets are just leverage and momentum. In the past, people were just lever up by buying stock on margin, and that could push up the markets. But today, leverage is exposed through call options. And when you're looking at single stock call options, you can see very clearly, whether it be through implied vol, whether it be through call skew or something like that, that the market, a lot of people were just loaded up on calls, especially in the chip stocks like Micron. And that was basically pushing everything up.
但是，当你的杠杆率很高时，市场当然会变得脆弱。因为一旦价格出现小幅下跌，可能有人会决定，他们赚够了钱，准备去杠杆化，锁定一些利润，这会导致价格进一步下跌。这样很容易引发连锁反应，导致大规模去杠杆化事件的发生，价格会一下子大幅下滑。这是一种群体性行为，我们经常能看到这种情况。所以，当时的市场状态本身就很脆弱，只需要一个导火索。上周我们看到了一些这样的导火索，很可能会把市场推向更大的去杠杆化周期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But when you are highly levered, of course, the market becomes fragile. Because once you have a small decline in prices, you know, maybe someone decides to, you know, I've made enough money, I'm going to deleverage, I'm going to take some profits, and that leads the price to drop even more. And so you can easily have a cascading effect where you have basically a huge deleveraging event where prices kind of all drop suddenly, right? It's herd-like behavior, stuff that we see all the time. So that was the state of the market. It was in a fragile situation. All it needed was a catalyst. And we got a couple catalysts last week that seemed to be able to tip the market into more of a deleveraging cycle.
首先，KOSPI指数下跌了5%。KOSPI指数是韩国股市。如果你看看韩国股市，它基本上是直线上升的，对吧？今年它几乎翻倍了。韩国股市主要由两大存储芯片公司的股票推动，如三星和海力士。这些公司从巨大的AI热潮中受益匪浅。随着大型云数据中心的建设，它们需要购买大量的内存。内存主要由几家公司生产，而这些韩国公司正是内存的主要生产商之一。由于需求超过供应，他们能够提高价格。因此，内存价格的巨大通胀另一面是这两家韩国公司获得了巨额利润。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So first off, of course, was the 5% drop in the KOSPI index. The KOSPI index is the Korean stock market. And if you look at the Korean stock market, it's basically gone vertical, right? It's basically doubled this year. So the Korean stock market has largely been driven by two memory chip stocks like Samsung and Hinex. These guys have been benefiting from the huge AI boom. As the hyperscalers build out their data centers, they're needing to buy a lot of RAM. RAM is largely produced in just a few companies. And these Korean companies are one of the big producers in RAM. And as demand exceeded supply, they have been able to raise prices. So the flip side of huge inflation in RAM is huge profits by these two Korean companies.
那巨大的利润增长基本上让他们的股票呈现抛物线式上涨，推动整个KOSPI指数也跟着大涨。现在，有一点关于韩国人的是，他们非常喜欢投资股市。他们的风险偏好很高。所以你会看到很多报道，说韩国人基本上贷款很多钱去加杠杆，追逐市场热潮。这种现象在美国也会看到，有许多韩国投资者来到美国市场投资，同样是在追逐涨势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that huge surge in profits has been basically making their stocks go parabolic, driving up a whole KOSPI index go parabolic as well. Now, one thing about Koreans is that they really like to invest in the stock market. They have a very high risk appetite. So you had seen many reports of people in Korea basically taking out huge loans to go and just, you know, lever up and chase the momentum. This is something that you actually see in the U.S. as well, where you have a lot of Korean investors who actually come in and invest in the U.S. stock market, chasing momentum as well.
其实，韩国证券存管所公开了一些数据，显示了韩国投资者持有的一些最大的海外股票。我几个月前查看过这些数据，基本上都是些垃圾股票，比如便士股和高波动的动量股票，类似的东西。这在当地的投资文化中非常普遍。因此这就像出现了一个裂缝，股价下跌了5%。这显然会影响到美国的记忆体股票和人工智能交易，不仅仅是因为市场情绪直接受到影响，还可能因为部分韩国投资者需要变现他们在美国的持仓。这就是动量中的一个小裂缝。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So actually, there's public data from the Korean Security Depository where you can actually see some of the largest overseas stock holdings from Korean investors. I looked at this a few months ago. It was basically garbage. Basically, penny stocks and huge momentum stocks, stuff like that. So it's very much in the investor culture there. So you had kind of a crack in that, in the call speed, down 5%. And that obviously is going to reverberate into the memory stocks, the AI trade in the U.S., both through just outright sentiment, but also as maybe some investors in Korea have to deliver their U.S. positions. So that's one crack, that one little crack in the momentum.
另一个关键点出现在劳动力数据上。为了给大家一个背景，我们在本周早些时候发布了首份劳动力数据，也就是JOLTS数据。JOLTS反映了美国的职位空缺数量，数据显示职位空缺大幅增加。这表明劳动力市场正在改善，因为随着职位发布的增加，对劳动力的需求也在增加。另外，我们还获得了ADP的数据，指出就业情况在改善。当然，被认为是最权威的数据是非农就业数据。而星期五的数据显示，这份非农就业数据表现非常亮眼，句号。我们创造了近20万个就业岗位，这远高于市场预期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The other momentum crack came with the labor data. So for context, we had our first labor data earlier in the week, the JOLTS data. JOLTS shows the amount of job openings in the U.S., and we showed a huge surge in job openings in the U.S. So that suggests that the labor market is improving because demand for labor is increasing as there's more job postings. Now, the real big job, oh, we also had ADP data that suggested the jobs situation is improving. But of course, the gold standard is the non-forms payrolls print. And on Friday, it was a blowout print, full stop. We created almost 200,000 jobs. So that was much higher than the market had anticipated.
如果你拉远视角看这个趋势，你会发现，就业岗位增长的移动平均线真的在出现转机。去年美国似乎没在创造就业，反而像是在失去工作岗位。但现在来看，移动平均线稳步上升。看来我们确实在创造更多的就业机会。而且不仅限于卫生保健领域，也包括地方政府等领域的工作。因此，看来就业市场正在改善。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if you zoom out and you look at the trend, you can see that it looks like the moving average of jobs created is really turning a corner, whereas the U.S. last year, it seems like we're not creating jobs. It seems like we're losing jobs. Right now, it seems like the moving average is solidly ticking upwards. And so it does seem like more jobs are being created. And not just jobs in, say, you know, health care, but it seems like we had jobs in local government and stuff like that. So it seems like the job market is improving.
当你查看就业报告的其他细节时，你会发现，上个月的数据被向上修正了，这个变化是好的。有趣的是，失业率仍然保持在4.3%。所以最终这有点令人困惑，因为当我们失去工作岗位时，大家都在讨论失业率维持在4.3%。当时的理论是盈亏平衡的新增就业岗位很少。但现在新增的就业岗位猛增，失业率仍然是4.3%，这就成了一个谜。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when you look at other details in the jobs report, you can see that, you know, we had revisions from last month, revised higher. So that's good. An interesting thing is that the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. So at the end of the day, it's kind of a puzzle because everyone was talking about the unemployment rate staying at 4.3% when we were losing jobs. The theory at the time was that the break-even job rate is very low. But now that we have a jump in jobs created, it's still 4.3%. So that's kind of a mystery.
一种可能性是，这只是一个滞后的现象。因此，随着美国经济继续创造更多的就业机会，也许失业率会降低。然而，工资增长并没有显著变化。这表明劳动市场并没有真正改善，对吗？通常情况下，如果劳动市场在改善，我们会期待失业率下降，而且随着劳动力变得稀缺，工资也会上涨。但现在我们并没有看到这种情况。所以，目前还是一个需要继续观察的状态。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One possibility is that it's just, you know, lagging. And so as the U.S. economy continues to create more jobs, maybe the unemployment rate will go lower. However, though, wages still, wage growth really hasn't changed as well. So that does not, that argues for a labor market that's not quite improving, right? So if you have an improving labor market, you would expect the unemployment rate to go lower. And as labor becomes scarce, you'd expect wages to go up as well. We're not seeing that, you know? So it's still very much a wait and see event.
目前，美国劳动力市场似乎正在稳定并改善。这对利率市场产生了巨大影响。市场立即把整个利率体系向上调整，特别是短期利率，因为市场开始预期美联储会加息。所以，如果你认为劳动力市场状况良好，这意味着美联储不需要通过降息来拯救劳动力市场，因为没有需要拯救的地方。然而，如果你看看通货膨胀，似乎在接下来的几个月中，视具体的进展，通胀率将会超过4%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But at the moment, it does seem like the U.S. labor market is stabilizing and improving. Now, that really had a big reaction in the rates market. You immediately have basically the entire rates complex shift up, particularly in the front end as the market began to price in Fed hikes. So if you think the labor market is OK, that means the Fed doesn't have to cut to save the labor market. There's nothing to save. And yet, if you look at inflation, it looks like we're going to head to inflation that's going to be above 4% in the coming months, depending on what happens with the straightforward moves.
显然，美联储目前面临通胀问题。劳动力市场状况良好，因此美联储可能需要加息。因此，市场已经完全消化今年一次加息的可能性，同时明年可能再加息一次。随着市场对这些加息的预期，整个收益率曲线必然会向上移动。而收益率曲线向上移动，这对风险资产来说不是好消息，对吗？因此，风险资产和股票市场不喜欢更高的利率，它们更希望利率保持在较低水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So obviously, the Fed has an inflation problem. The labor market is OK. So the Fed will probably have to hike. So the market fully prices in one hike this year and a good chance of another hike next year as well. So with the market pricing that in, of course, the entire curve had to shift upwards. And if you have the curve shifting upwards, that's another knock on risk assets, right? So risk assets, equities don't like higher interest rates, would prefer interest rates to stay low.
因此，来自韩国的波动加上强劲的就业数据和市场脆弱的定位，似乎引发了一次大规模的去杠杆事件。Spot Gamma 网站有一个很好的图表显示这一情况，基本上前一天大家大量持有看涨期权，而到了周五，他们不得不大举抛售。因此，市场的下跌在纳斯达克指数中最为明显，这也是当然市场中涨得最高的部分。你可以看到纳斯达克100指数有非常明显的下跌。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So both that hiccup from Korea, both the strong labor print and the fragile positioning of the market seems to have set off a big deleveraging event. So Spot Gamma has a really good chart about this, showing you how basically the day before everyone was super long calls. And on Friday, they basically have to puke that out. So the decline in markets was most obvious in the NASDAQ, which was, of course, the most stretched market. You can see a very discrete decline in the NASDAQ 100.
现在话虽如此，如果你只看基本的动量分析、基本的移动平均线之类的东西，你会发现市场仍然维持在一个上升趋势中。所以很难从中解读出任何看跌的信号。似乎我们只是经历了一次理应发生的调整，因为之前市场一直在直线上涨。所以，尽管我相信我们处于一个泡沫中，最终会有一个缓慢下跌的熊市，很多人将蒙受巨大损失。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that being said, if you look at just basic momentum analysis, basic moving averages and things like that, you can see the market continues to be very much in an upwards trend. So it's really hard to look at this and interpret anything bearish. It seems like we're just kind of having a correction as we should since we've gone straight up. So whereas I believe that we are in a bubble and that we will eventually have a bear market that grinds lower slowly and that many people will lose a lot of money.
实际上，我的预期是下周所有的开发买家和卖方都会进场，我认为我们可能会回升。不过，需注意的是，这个过程可能还没有完全成熟。我在收盘后注意到，我们在期货市场又出现了一波抛售，这通常是保证金催缴的典型迹象。这意味着有很多人毫无准备，不得不被强制平仓。因此，纳斯达克期货下跌5%是很严重的情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Actually, my expectation is that next week all the dev buyers will come in, the vol sellers will come in, and I think we'd probably go back up. Now, one caveat to that is that it may not fully be developed. So one thing that I noticed at aftermarket close is that we had another wave of selling in the futures. That's classic sign of margin calls. So there were a lot of people who were totally caught off guard and who had to be liquidated. So 5% decline in the NASDAQ futures is significant.
翻译如下：
如果你是一个加杠杆的Momo追逐者，你很可能无法在这种情况下幸存下来。现在有一个担忧，我也有同感，那就是这种情况发生在韩国和其他亚洲市场关闭时。因此，当这些市场在周一早上（美国时间周日晚）重新开放时，他们可能也需要进行一些清算。如果你是一位在那边投资美国市场的投资者，你醒来后可能会收到追加保证金通知，被迫平仓，并可能需要出售自己市场的一些股票来弥补损失。因此，韩国综合指数可能会再下跌5%到10%，这可能进一步引发美国市场指数的去杠杆化。所以，去杠杆化的过程可能还没有结束。但从长远来看，整体趋势似乎依然是向上的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's very highly unlikely that if you are a livered Momo chaser that you would have survived that. Now, there's a concern, and I share this, is that this happened when Korea and other Asian markets were closed. So when those markets reopen on Monday morning, so Sunday evening U.S. time, they may have some liquidations to do as well. If you are an investor over there with levered positions in the U.S., you would have woken up and you would have gotten margin called, you would have gotten liquidated, and you may have to sell some stocks that you hold in your own market to kind of cover that. So you could have maybe another 5% to 10% down day in the cost fee, and that could potentially kick off more deleveraging in the U.S. indexes. So it's possible that the deleveraging cycle is not over. But again, zooming out, it seems like the trend is still solidly upwards.
现在，我们在股市中看到的损失也传导到了其他许多市场。我们看到黄金和白银大幅下跌，比特币也是如此。人们认为的硬通货或类似的交易，确实受到了严重打击。尤其是黄金，跌破了维持已久的200日移动平均线，很多人认为这是一种判断黄金是否仍处于上升趋势的重要信号。因此，一旦失守这一点位，就会引发更多的抛售，因为顺应趋势的投资者会调整他们的策略。因此，这是一种剧烈的波动，很可能尚未结束。所以，我认为这一天很激动人心，但完全在意料之中。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the damage we saw in the equity market did reverberate in many other markets as well. We saw huge declines in gold and silver, and also Bitcoin as well. So what people think of as the, you know, hard money or whatnot trades, those really got wrecked bigly. And gold in particular lost the 200-day moving average, which is a moving average that it's kept for a long time and that many people perceive to be kind of an important trigger as to whether or not we are still in an upwards trend. And so once you lose that, you trigger a lot of more selling because people who are trend followers, they see that and they have to adjust. Now, so it's a violent move that probably is not over yet. So, yeah, I think this is a pretty exciting day, but not at all unexpected.
现在，我认为有趣的是，随着SpaceX的IPO现在定价为大约1.7万亿美元市值，我们知道会有大量的股票供应增加。不过，这些股票并不是一下子全部上市的。它们只出售750亿美元的股票，但这仍然是750亿美元的供应。接下来几个月，SpaceX的员工们可以出售他们已经持有的SpaceX股票。目前他们是不能卖的，但在IPO后，会有一个解锁期，在接下来的几个月里，他们可以出售这些股票。我认为这会取决于他们的合同等因素。员工们将能够兑现他们多年持有的SpaceX股票，这样就会出现渐进式的股票抛售。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, one of the things that I thought was interesting is that just as we know that we have a big increase in equity supply coming forward with the SpaceX IPO that's now priced, I believe it's like $1.7 trillion market cap. Again, that's not all coming online at one time. They're only selling $75 billion, but that is $75 billion of supply. What will happen is that over the coming months, people who are employees of SpaceX who already have SpaceX stock, they will be able to sell their stock. There's a period where they are not able to sell it. But after UIPO, there's an unlock period in the coming months where they are able to sell it. And I think that's going to depend on their contract and stuff like that. But they're going to be able to monetize SpaceX stock that they've had for many years. And so that's where you can have gradual selling.
现在，除此之外，上周谷歌突然提交申请，计划通过出售股票在市场上筹集资金。其中一部分通过定向增发以优惠价格卖给了伯克希尔·哈撒韦。也许如果你购买100亿美元，你会得到一个批量折扣。但其中一半将通过"随时出售"的方式进行。从下个月开始，谷歌将直接出售股票。基本机制是，如果你的股票很贵或者你认为它很贵，平衡的方法就是出售更多股票。作为投资者，你可能会尝试卖空。但如果你是公司本身，你会以市场价格将股票出售给愿意购买的投资者。他们给你现金，你给他们股票，然后你可以用这些资金去开发更多的人工智能项目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, on top of that, we also had last week Google filing suddenly out of the blue that they were going to raise capital in the markets by selling equity. Some of it went to Berkshire Hathaway through a private placement and they got a discount on that. Maybe if you buy, I think, $10 billion, maybe you get a bulk discount. But half of that is going to be through an at-the-market offering. So starting, I think, next month, they'll be selling stock outright. So you have this basic mechanism where your stock is expensive or you think it's expensive. And so the balancing mechanism is that you'll sell more, right? If you are an investor, maybe you try to short sell. But if you are the company itself, well, you just sell stock to, you know, willing investors at market prices. And they give you cash and you give them stock and you get to go and build more AI stuff.
现在，有一个与高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门的播客节目在上周的Odd Lots中提到，他认为其他公司也会这样做。而在周五，我们也收到消息称，Facebook可能也会进行股票发行。因此，面对市场过热和泡沫的自然对策就是公司增发股票。我们在GameStop上也看到了类似情况。当一群散户投资者将GameStop股票炒高时，GameStop开始卖股票并筹集资金。这是他们的CEO和CFO非常聪明的举动。而现在似乎这种情况也在发生。因此，未来几个月，市场可能会因这些股票供应增加而承压。这不会马上发生，而是逐渐进行。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, there is a podcast with Golden CEO David Solomon on Odd Lots last week suggesting that he thinks that other companies will also do that. And on Friday, we also had news that Facebook is also going to be maybe having an equity offering. So a natural counterbalance to very elevated, frothy markets is the companies coming and selling stock. We saw this in GameStop as well. When, you know, a bunch of DJs were driving GameStop stock to the moon, GameStop began to sell stock and raise cash. Very smart move by their CEO, CFO. And it looks like that's happening as well. So you have this equity supply that's going to weigh on markets in the coming months, right? It's not going to happen immediately. It's going to be something gradually.
请注意，通常情况下，如果你是一家大型科技公司，你会将股票作为薪酬的一部分发放给员工。这本来会稀释公司股票。然而，公司也会通过回购股票来抵消这种稀释。但随着公司在人工智能上的支出增加，它们不像以前那样频繁进行股票回购。因此，稀释效应会更强烈。未来几个月，市场上将会有更多的股票供应，这将在接下来的几个月中（不是立刻）继续对市场产生压力。这一点需要注意。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Also note that normally, if you're a big tech company, you give shares to your employees as part of the compensation. Now, that should be diluting your shares. But what also happens is that you have buybacks to offset that dilution. So as companies spend more money on AI, they're not really doing as many buybacks as they used to. And so that dilutive effect is going to be stronger. So, again, you have more equity supply going forward in the coming months, and that's going to continue to weigh on markets in the, let's say, in the coming months, not immediately. So something to keep in mind.
好的。星期五是令人兴奋的一天。我认为星期一可能也会很激动。但同样地，购买低点、承担风险的心态以及波动率卖家这些人都很强大。当然，我们正进入六月的结算窗口。通常在我们进入这个时间段时，波动率会有一定程度的压缩。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So exciting day on Friday. I think Monday will probably be exciting. But, again, the buy the dip, the risk mentality, the vol sellers, these guys, they're powerful. And, of course, we're heading into June off X. And usually as we head into this window, you have some degree of vol compression as well.
好的。我们要谈的第二个事情是“2025项目”。当我提到“2025项目”时，它其实是特朗普竞选活动的计划之一，用于特朗普第二次竞选。当时，他自己也表示对这个“2025项目”毫无头绪。他不知道这是什么。但是，我们看到过去一年，这个项目的一些作者实际上被任命为政府中的高级官员。看来这次又有一位作者要加入美联储。来自《华尔街日报》的Nick透露了一个消息，说Kevin正在招募顾问，其中一位是Paul，他撰写了“2025项目”中关于美联储的章节。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So the second thing that we have to talk about is Project 2025. When I talk about Project 2025, you know, that was kind of the game plan for the Trump election campaign for Trump version two. And at the time, he was like, I have no idea what this Project 2025 is. I don't know. But as it turns out, we've seen that over the past year, a lot of the authors of the Project 2025, I guess, think piece, actually were hired into pretty senior administration jobs. And it looks like one more author is being hired this time into the Fed. You have Nick at the Wall Street Journal with a scoop that Kevin is staffing up and he's hiring advisors. And one of them is Paul, who wrote the Project 2025 chapter of the Federal Reserve.
我认为这有助于我们了解他对美联储未来发展的愿景。这个章节不长，内容十分简洁。我会把它分成两个部分。一部分是比较哲学性的，更多是关于国会需要做的事情，这部分谈及他对于美联储是什么以及应该是什么的看法，但没有具体的行动建议。另一部分则是美联储本身可以采取的行动，这部分内容更具可操作性，与可能影响市场的因素关系更直接。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's I think that's helpful in giving us an idea as to his vision of what the Fed will be. So the chapter isn't very long. It was very concise. And I would split it into two portions. One portion is that stuff that's more philosophical, more about stuff that Congress would need to do. So it's more about how his approach to what the Fed is and should be and not actually actionable. And the other part is stuff that the Fed actually can do itself and that is more actionable and more directly related to what could impact markets.
大体上来说，他的观点是，他认为美联储（Federal Reserve，简称Fed）不好。他希望美联储变得更小一些，因为他觉得这样会更好。这也反映了他的经济哲学以及他对美联储角色的看法。他提出的一些建议需要国会来实施，有些建议比较不切实际，比如回归商品标准，如金本位制。大家都知道这根本不可能发生。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So broadly speaking, just looking at his philosophy is that he thinks the Fed is not good and he thinks it's not good. And he would like the Fed to be smaller and a smaller Fed, he feels like, would be better. And that kind of goes to more of his philosophy, more of his role of what the Fed would be in the economy. So some of his suggestions that could only be implemented by Congress, some of them are kind of silly, like go back to a commodity standard, like the gold standard. Guys, that's never going to happen.
回到自由银行的时代，让银行发行自己的货币。现在银行其实已经在创造货币了，就像JP摩根发行自己的存款一样，这样他们可以和其他银行竞争。这种市场机制能够确保私人银行管理得更好。然而，这种情况也不太可能发生。更有趣的是，我认为更有政治支持的是将现行的双重任务（即促进就业和控制通货膨胀）转为单一任务，只关注通货膨胀控制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Go back to free banking where banks issue their own money. But they create money now, but kind of like JP Morgan issuing JP Morgan deposits so they can kind of compete with other banks. So that this market mechanism will make sure that private banks are more better managed. That's not going to happen either. And more of a interesting and something that I think has a little bit more political support, and that is the removal of the dual mandate to just a single inflation mandate.
很久以前，美联储基本上只是最后贷款人。在20世纪70年代，由于我们经历了显著的宏观经济不稳定、高通胀和高失业率，我们还放弃了金本位制，美联储获得了更多的宏观经济任务，包括充分就业、价格稳定和调节长期适度的利率。他不喜欢所有这些任务。他希望美联储只有一个任务，其他任务比如就业之类的可以由国会来负责。我觉得这样的观点很合理。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So once upon a time, the Fed was basically just a lender of last resort. In the 1970s, as we had significant macroeconomic instability, high inflation, high unemployment, and also at that time we also went off the gold standard, the Fed was given more of a macroeconomic mandate, full employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates. So he doesn't like all that stuff. He would like the Fed to just have one mandate and maybe have Congress work on the other stuff, right? Like employment and things like that. And this is something that I think makes total sense.
当美联储有两个使命时，基本上就是给了美联储一张空白支票，因为有了两个使命，实际上他们可以做任何事情。你总是可以提高利率，理由是通货膨胀，不管它是真实的、预测的，还是想象中的。你也可以总是降低利率，理由是失业率过高，然后用一些捉摸不透的方法来计算你认为的自然失业率。那么，当美联储有两个使命时，就赋予了央行很大的自由裁量权。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So when you have the Fed with two mandates, you're basically giving the Fed a blank check because you can basically do anything if you have two mandates. You can always hike interest rates and point to inflation, whether real or projected or imagined. And you can always cut interest rates, pointing at unemployment being too high and just coming up with some hocus-pocus measure of what you think the natural rate of unemployment is. So you give a lot of discretion to a central bank when you have two mandates.
归根结底，美联储实际上无法真正实现其任何使命，对吧？通货膨胀和失业率这些都是非常复杂的宏观经济问题，还取决于贸易政策、人口结构、税收政策、财政支出等等。所以说实话，即使在价格稳定方面，美联储也无法单靠自己实现目标，因为利率只是影响经济活动的众多因素之一。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And at the end of the day, the Fed really can't really accomplish any of its mandates anyway, right? Inflation, unemployment, these are very complicated macroeconomic problems that depend on things like trade policy, like demographics, tax policy, fiscal spending, and all that. So honestly, the Fed is, even in the price stability sense, it's never going to be able to accomplish it itself because interest rates are only one factor among many that determine economic activity.
所以，从我的理解来看，国会内部也有人支持让美联储成为一个只有单一目标的中央银行。这将使他们的角色更加专注，权力更小。也许他们能够更专注于控制通胀。如果我们有一个单一目标的中央银行，我认为目前利率可能会更高，因为通胀率是4%。但这需要国会来决定，而不是Kevin或他的团队可以处理的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this is something that I think, from my understanding, on Congress, there's also some support with just having the Fed become a single mandate central bank. And that would make their role more tailored, less power. And maybe they might be able to be more focused on inflation. Inflation would be lower, right? If we had a single mandate central bank, I think we would probably have higher rates right now since inflation is, you know, 4%. But that's a question for Congress, and it's not really about what Kevin or his staff can do.
不过，凯文和他的团队可以做的事情是本章中的其他四项建议。首先，我会简单列出这些建议，然后再逐一讨论。首先，当然是缩小资产负债表，这我们都知道是凯文擅长的事情。第二项建议是拥有仅限国债的资产负债表，这实际上是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的共识立场，所以这必定会实现。第三项是让美联储的放贷政策更加严格，减少优惠措施，特别是在贴现窗口的政策上。他们不希望被视为在补贴银行的不当行为，希望对贴现窗口的访问限制更多。最后一项，更有趣的是，他们希望取消银行系统的超额准备金利息（IOR）。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But what Kevin and his staff can do, though, are four other recommendations that were in this chapter. So the first, I'll just list them and we'll talk about them. First, of course, is smaller balance sheet, which we all know is kind of Kevin's thing. The second is have a Treasury-only balance sheet, which actually, I think, is a consensus position on the FOMC. So this will happen. Third is having a Fed that, so less giving, so having discount window policy that's more strict. So basically, they don't want to be seen as kind of subsidizing the bad behavior of banks. They want access to the discount window to be a lot more limited. And lastly, and this is more interesting, is that they want the end of interest on excess reserves. So no IOR for the banking system.
所以，这些事情完全在美联储理事会的权力范围内，不需要与国会达成任何协议。如果他们有足够的政治支持，他们就可以实现这些目标。我们知道，总统仍然在努力掌控美联储理事会。目前，有针对丽莎·库克的诉讼正在进行。上周，一个有趣的动态是，在某种情况下获得了丽莎·库克房贷文件并引发整个诉讼的FHFA主任普尔特被提升为国家情报局局长，我想在那里他将能接触到更多的文件。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So these are things that are actually fully within the power of the Fed board and don't need any agreement with Congress. So these are things that they could accomplish if they have, I guess, if they have enough political support. And we know that the president is still trying to take control of the Fed board. There's ongoing lawsuits against Lisa Cook. An interesting development last week is that Director Pulte of FHFA, the person who somehow obtained the mortgage documents of Lisa Cook and created this whole lawsuit, he's promoted to Director of National Intelligence, where I imagine he will have access to a lot more documents.
所以我猜想你会查看美联储所有成员的三年级成绩单，确保从来没有任何可疑的事情发生。因此，我猜测我们会看到更多来自Pulte主任对美联储的控制努力。不管怎样，从缩小资产负债表开始，这是美联储可以做到的事情。但目前，我认为他们没有足够的支持来实施。例如，Waller对此不支持。我们有Bowman州长，她似乎对此没问题。但目前，他们还没有足够的支持来这么做。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so I guess you're going to be looking at their third grade report cards and all that for everyone on the Fed to make sure that nothing, nothing ever, ever sketchy has ever happened. So I'm guessing that we're going to see more efforts to control the Fed from Director Pulte. In any case, starting with having a smaller balance sheet, that's something that the Fed can do. But at the moment, I don't believe they have enough support to do it. I think, for example, Waller is not supportive of this. We have Governor Bowman. It seems like she's okay with it. But at the moment, it's not something that they have enough support to do.
即使他们做了，我认为来自秘书贝桑特的意见也表明，他们会慢慢进行。因此，这不会立即发生。然而，他们可以较为稳定地实现只持有国债的资产负债表。他们这样做的理由是，美联储在抵押贷款市场的活跃会扭曲市场，并导致2021年房价的大幅飙升，这是完全正确的。因此，他们不希望美联储在房地产市场上制造泡沫。我认为这是大家达成的共识。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And even if they did, I think even comma to you from Secretary Besant suggests that this is something that they'll do slowly. So it's not something that's going to happen immediately. Having a Treasury-only balance sheet, though, is something that they can do pretty steadily. Now, their rationale for this is that having the Fed active in the mortgage markets distorts the markets and also contributed this huge, huge surge in home prices in 2021, which is totally true. So they don't want the Fed to be in there blowing bubbles in the housing market. And I think that's a consensus position.
目前关于美联储的问题是如何实现只持有国债的投资组合。你会选择出售抵押贷款支持证券，还是只是在再投资时逐步把到期的抵押贷款转入国债？这个过程将历时30年。因此，他们将在接下来的会议中继续讨论这个问题。至于更严格的最后贷款人职能，比如减少贴现窗口的使用，这有点愚蠢，因为说实话，在现代银行系统中，基本上没有人使用贴现窗口。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The question on the Fed right now is how to get to a Treasury-only portfolio. Are you going to sell mortgages or are you just going to have your reinvestment policy gradually reinvest maturing mortgages into Treasuries? That's going to be a 30-year process. So that's something that they'll continue to be paid in the coming meetings. Having a more strict lender of last-retort function, so less access to a discount window, that's kind of stupid because, honestly, in the modern banking system, basically no one uses a discount window anyway.
我觉得这在美联储早期是比较常见的，或者至少那时候更活跃。但如今这基本上不成问题了，所以我甚至不明白为什么我们还要讨论它。最后一个问题，关于利息支付终止（IOR），这非常有趣。关于IOR，有些人认为这基本上是给银行的大额馈赠。比如说，如果有三万亿美元的储备，IOR利率是4%的话，每年光是利息收入就给银行超过一千亿美元。这基本上就是银行业的免费资金，是一种补贴，并且是在金融危机后故意设定的补贴。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think that was pretty frequent, or at least much more active in the early days of the Fed. But it's basically a non-issue today, so I don't even understand why we talk about it. The last issue, the end of IOR, that's very interesting. Now, IOR, so some people look at this as just basically a huge giveaway to banks, right? If you have three trillion in reserves and you have IOR, let's say at 4%, you're giving like over $100 billion to banks just in interest income every year, right? That's basically free money to the banking sector. It's a subsidy, and it was intended to be a subsidy after the great financial crises.
银行非常脆弱，资本不足，状况不佳。因此，美联储希望对它们给予一些支持。此外，由于美联储拥有大量资产负债表，其利率控制机制的一部分是通过超额准备金利率（IOR）。如果你今天想要终止IOR，这完全是可行的。你需要改变货币政策的实施方式。也许可以设立一个分层机制，就像其他一些地区所做的那样。比如，你可以对大部分准备金不支付利息，但对部分准备金支付一些利息，这样就能保持对隔夜利率的控制能力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Banks were very weak, undercapitalized, in poor condition. So the Fed wanted to support them a little bit. And also, as the Fed has a large balance sheet, part of their rate control mechanism is through IOR. Now, if you wanted to end IOR today, it is totally doable. You'd have to change how you implement a monetary policy. Maybe you could have a tiering mechanism, like what they do in other jurisdictions. Maybe you pay zero interest on the bulk of reserves, but pay a little bit of interest on some reserves, and that can maintain your ability to control overnight interest rates.
这确实是美联储可以做的事情。我不这么认为。这不可能与一个更小的美联储资产负债表同时进行，也不一定非要这样。他们完全可以通过巧妙的设计来实现这个目标。我实际上并不认为美联储理事会的其他人会对这个想法有太多的反对意见。我只是不确定他们是否有真正有能力实施这个计划的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that is definitely something that the Fed can do. I don't think so. This couldn't come in tandem with a smaller Fed balance sheet. It doesn't have to. With a clever design, they could definitely achieve this. I don't actually think there's going to be much pushback from other people on the Board of Governors to this idea. I'm just not sure if they have people that honestly have the capability of implementing it.
但这可能是在所有事情之中，他们可以做的更为紧迫的潜在成果之一。我们来看看他在即将到来的会议中是否会提到这件事。请记住，凯文即将在几周后主持他的第一次会议，有人建议凯文可能想要改变美联储的沟通结构，比如可能不再有点阵图，或减少美联储会议。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But this is probably among everything else. One of the more immediate potential deliverables that they could do. Let's see if he actually talks about it in his coming meeting. Remember, the first meeting where Kevin will chair, who is coming in a couple weeks, there is some suggestion that Kevin might want to change the communication structure of the Fed, such that maybe we won't have a dot plot anymore, or maybe have fewer Fed conferences.
所以我们会在几周内了解更多信息。好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收看。下周再和大家聊。谢谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we'll find out more in a couple weeks. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week. Thank you.