Yahoo Finance Live: US stocks rise with historic SpaceX IPO, Iran peace odds in focus
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以下是Yahoo Finance关于SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO）晨间简报和市场分析节目的摘要中文翻译：
这是一段关于SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO）的Yahoo Finance晨间简报和市场分析节目摘要，涵盖了以下主要新闻和事实：
**一、 SpaceX IPO核心信息与市场情绪：**
* **“SpaceX日”：** 被认为是史上最大的IPO。
* **发行细节：** 销售555,555股，每股135美元，共筹集750亿美元，总估值达1.77万亿美元。
* **市场情绪：** 热情高涨，但也有人持怀疑态度。
* **上市期待：** 嘉宾们讨论开盘价是会“核弹式飙升”还是“温和上涨”。Bloomberg报道可能在上午9:50-10:00开盘报价。
* **埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）：** IPO前解决了特斯拉的薪酬问题，确保了他在SpaceX的完全控制权（通过单一类别股票而非双重类别股票）。他在SpaceX的持股价值6900亿美元，加上特斯拉的2790亿美元，使其有望成为万亿美元富翁。
**二、 投机与预售市场：**
* **Hyperliquid平台：** 在加密货币领域，Hyperliquid等平台上的SpaceX预售股票价格曾达到180美元，后降至173美元，溢价约28%。交易量是平时的10倍。
* **散户投资者：** 许多散户投资者在X（推特）上的投票显示，多数人认为SpaceX开盘价会超过200美元但低于300美元。有少数人认为可能跌破135美元。
* **富达（Fidelity）等券商：** 威胁对短期抛售IPO股票的散户投资者进行处罚，引起了Prasar的质疑，认为这不公平。
* **加密货币与SpaceX：** Zach Guzman认为将加密货币抛售以投资SpaceX的说法是“完全错误的”，更多是为了AI领域。
**三、 IPO定价与市场公平性：**
* **固定价格135美元：** SpaceX的发行价是固定而非区间，被认为是“不寻常”且引发了对价格发现过程的质疑。
* **埃隆·马斯克的权力：** 嘉宾们指出，定价由马斯克决定，以及他在SpaceX拥有85%的投票权，反映了他对规则的改变能力。
* **Facebook IPO教训：** 有人提到Facebook IPO初期表现不佳（60%跌幅），特斯拉也曾经历多年盘整，提醒投资者注意波动性。
**四、 SpaceX的业务构成与风险：**
* **AI而非纯太空公司：** 嘉宾们指出，S1文件显示SpaceX的最大业务增长点（TAM）并非纯粹的太空业务，而是AI（如xAI、数据中心、Grok）。
* **奥本海默（Oppenheimer）报告：** 将SpaceX视为“大数据中心”公司，无论是太空数据中心还是地面数据中心。
* **AI业务的争议：** Justice Parmer认为马斯克的AI业务被低估，认为Grok等产品出现时间短，需要更多时间证明其潜力。
* **未来前景与挑战：**
* **可重复使用火箭：** 被认为是未来十年SpaceX财务成功的关键。
* **星舰（Starship）：** 必须成功才能实现大规模载荷运输。马斯克曾预测五年内每年运输100万吨货物，需要每周发射25艘星舰（每天3艘），目前仍未实现。
* **月球与火星：** 火星殖民是最终目标，但Justice Parmer强调第一步是月球殖民和月球经济发展。他相信在有生之年能看到火星上的活动。
**五、 早期投资者与机构影响：**
* **巨额回报：** Founders Fund（6亿美元投资现值500亿美元）、Andreessen Horowitz（100亿美元持股）、Sequoia（1.5%股份）等早期投资者将获得巨额利润。
* **被动基金：** S&P和Dow Jones指数公司暂时未将其纳入，以避免对市场造成过大冲击，但未来可能因规则变更而被迫纳入，引发Mike Green等人的担忧。
* **锁定期（Lock-up期）：** 内幕人士的股份有锁定期，首次内部人士抛售可能在IPO后六个月，马斯克本人可能在一年后抛售。
* **散户投资者分配：** 最初报道将有20-30%分配给散户投资者，后降至20%左右，但需求巨大（高达1000亿美元），导致许多散户投资者未获配额。
**六、 对市场及相关公司的影响：**
* **纳斯达克（NASDAQ）的胜利：** 纳斯达克赢得SpaceX上市，这对它来说是巨大的声誉提升，尤其是在争取OpenAI和Anthropic等未来AI巨头上市方面。纳斯达克首席执行官阿迪娜·弗里德曼（Adina Friedman）是跆拳道黑带和持证飞行员。
* **传统防御公司：** Nancy Tengler认为，虽然传统防御公司如洛克希德·马丁（Lockheed Martin）仍有其市场，但SpaceX的成功会加速该领域的创新，并使其余公司“落后”。
* **AI公司的影响：** Keith Lerner指出，Mag7（科技七巨头）股票今年整体表现不佳，资金流向了“铲子和镐”（基础设施）类公司。SpaceX IPO不会标志着牛市的结束，但可能带来市场波动。
* **能源与数据中心：**
* **地球能源限制：** James West（Milius Research）指出，AI和数据中心面临的主要瓶颈是电力供应，电网设计不适应当前激增的需求。
* **太空数据中心：** 理论上可在太空获得24/7太阳能，但目前仍是概念。
* **解决方案：** 独立电力生产商（IPP）与数据中心合作，在现场建立发电设施（天然气、太阳能+储能）。
* **监管不确定性：** 监管障碍和地方反对是能源公司股票表现不佳的原因，但James West认为这些问题将很快得到解决。
**七、 埃隆·马斯克的个人角色与风险：**
* **“关键人物风险”：** 多位嘉宾强调，马斯克是SpaceX的灵魂人物，如果他无法管理公司（“香蕉皮”事件），对公司将产生巨大影响。尽管有格温·肖特韦尔（Gwen Shotwell）这样的得力高管，但创新精神可能受损。
* **批评与个人形象：** 马斯克的言行（如Cybertruck、X上的争议言论）受到批评，被Tom Sosnoff称为“坏亿万富翁”。
* **时间分配：** 马斯克身兼多职，他的精力分散也是一个考量因素。
**八、 投资建议与警示：**
* **高波动性：** IPO后股价可能经历剧烈波动，历史数据显示，大型IPO在未来6-12个月内表现往往不佳，一年内最大回撤平均达50%。
* **“呼吸空间”：** Teresa Arago建议客户“让它呼吸一下”，不要基于情绪进行投资，特别是退休金投资。
* **长期投资：** Nancy Tengler建议以3-5年甚至10年的长期眼光看待SpaceX。
* **散户投资者策略：** Tom Sosnoff认为散户投资者足够聪明，会理性对待，也许会很快抛售配股，并在期权市场寻找机会。
* **非认证投资者：** Teresa Arago提醒非认证投资者需谨慎，IPO风险高。
**九、 实时动态：**
* **开盘价指示：** 节目中，SpaceX的开盘价指示从175美元下降到168.75美元，后又降至165美元，显示市场在开盘前仍在进行价格发现和博弈。
* **纳斯达克现场：** Brooke De Palma描述了纳斯达克现场的紧张与兴奋，安保严密，数百人围观。
这是一段关于SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO）的Yahoo Finance晨间简报和市场分析节目摘要，涵盖了以下主要新闻和事实：
**一、 SpaceX IPO核心信息与市场情绪：**
* **“SpaceX Day”：** 被认为是史上最大的IPO。
* **发行细节：** 销售555,555股，每股135美元，共筹集750亿美元，总估值达1.77万亿美元。
* **市场情绪：** 热情高涨，但也有人持怀疑态度。
* **上市期待：** 嘉宾们讨论开盘价是会“核弹式飙升”还是“温和上涨”。Bloomberg报道可能在上午9:50-10:00开盘报价。
* **Elon Musk：** IPO前解决了特斯拉的薪酬问题，确保了他在SpaceX的完全控制权（通过单一类别股票而非双重类别股票）。他的SpaceX持股价值6900亿美元，加上特斯拉的2790亿美元，使其有望成为万亿美元富翁。
**二、 投机与预售市场：**
* **Hyperliquid平台：** 在加密货币领域，Hyperliquid等平台上的SpaceX预售股票价格曾达到180美元，后降至173美元，溢价约28%。交易量是平时的10倍。
* **零售投资者：** 许多零售投资者在X（Twitter）上的投票显示，多数人认为SpaceX开盘价会超过200美元但低于300美元。有少数人认为可能跌破135美元。
* **Fidelity等券商：** 威胁对短期抛售IPO股票的零售投资者进行处罚，引起了Prasar的质疑，认为这不公平。
* **加密货币与SpaceX：** Zach Guzman认为将加密货币抛售以投资SpaceX的说法是“完全错误的”，更多是为了AI领域。
**三、 IPO定价与市场公平性：**
* **固定价格135美元：** SpaceX的发行价是固定而非区间，被认为是“不寻常”且引发了对价格发现过程的质疑。
* **Elon Musk的权力：** 嘉宾们指出，定价由马斯克决定，以及他在SpaceX拥有85%的投票权，反映了他对规则的改变能力。
* **Facebook IPO教训：** 有人提到Facebook IPO初期表现不佳（60%跌幅），特斯拉也曾经历多年盘整，提醒投资者注意波动性。
**四、 SpaceX的业务构成与风险：**
* **AI而非纯太空公司：** 嘉宾们指出，S1文件显示SpaceX的最大业务增长点（TAM）并非纯粹的太空业务，而是AI（如xAI、数据中心、Grok）。
* **Oppenheimer报告：** 将SpaceX视为“大数据中心”公司，无论是太空数据中心还是地面数据中心。
* **AI业务的争议：** Justice Parmer认为马斯克的AI业务被低估，认为Grok等产品出现时间短，需要更多时间证明其潜力。
* **未来前景与挑战：**
* **可重复使用火箭：** 被认为是未来十年SpaceX财务成功的关键。
* **Starship：** 必须成功才能实现大规模载荷运输。马斯克曾预测五年内每年运输100万吨货物，需要每周发射25艘星舰（每天3艘），目前仍未实现。
* **月球与火星：** 火星殖民是最终目标，但Justice Parmer强调第一步是月球殖民和月球经济发展。他相信在有生之年能看到火星上的活动。
**五、 早期投资者与机构影响：**
* **巨额回报：** Founders Fund（6亿美元投资现值500亿美元）、Andreessen Horowitz（100亿美元持股）、Sequoia（1.5%股份）等早期投资者将获得巨额利润。
* **被动基金：** S&P和Dow Jones指数公司暂时未将其纳入，以避免对市场造成过大冲击，但未来可能因规则变更而被迫纳入，引发Mike Green等人的担忧。
* **Lock-up期：** 内幕人士的股份有锁定期，首次内部人士抛售可能在IPO后六个月，马斯克本人可能在一年后抛售。
* **零售投资者分配：** 最初报道将有20-30%分配给零售投资者，后降至20%左右，但需求巨大（高达1000亿美元），导致许多零售投资者未获配额。
**六、 对市场及相关公司的影响：**
* **NASDAQ的胜利：** NASDAQ赢得SpaceX上市，这对它来说是巨大的声誉提升，尤其是在争取OpenAI和Anthropic等未来AI巨头上市方面。NASDAQ CEO Adina Friedman是跆拳道黑带和持证飞行员。
* **传统防御公司：** Nancy Tengler认为，虽然传统防御公司如Lockheed Martin仍有其市场，但SpaceX的成功会加速该领域的创新，并使其余公司“落后”。
* **AI公司的影响：** Keith Lerner指出，Mag7股票今年整体表现不佳，资金流向了“铲子和镐”类公司。SpaceX IPO不会标志着牛市的结束，但可能带来市场波动。
* **能源与数据中心：**
* **地球能源限制：** James West（Milius Research）指出，AI和数据中心面临的主要瓶颈是电力供应，电网设计不适应当前激增的需求。
* **太空数据中心：** 理论上可在太空获得24/7太阳能，但目前仍是概念。
* **解决方案：** 独立电力生产商（IPP）与数据中心合作，在现场建立发电设施（天然气、太阳能+储能）。
* **监管不确定性：** 监管障碍和地方反对是能源公司股票表现不佳的原因，但James West认为这些问题将很快得到解决。
**七、 Elon Musk的个人角色与风险：**
* **“关键人物风险”：** 多位嘉宾强调，马斯克是SpaceX的灵魂人物，如果他无法管理公司（“香蕉皮”事件），对公司将产生巨大影响。尽管有Gwen Shotwell这样的得力高管，但创新精神可能受损。
* **批评与个人形象：** 马斯克的言行（如Cybertruck、X上的争议言论）受到批评，被Tom Sosnoff称为“坏亿万富翁”。
* **时间分配：** 马斯克身兼多职，他的精力分散也是一个考量因素。
**八、 投资建议与警示：**
* **高波动性：** IPO后股价可能经历剧烈波动，历史数据显示，大型IPO在未来6-12个月内表现往往不佳，一年内最大回撤平均达50%。
* **“呼吸空间”：** Teresa Arago建议客户“让它呼吸一下”，不要基于情绪进行投资，特别是退休金投资。
* **长期投资：** Nancy Tengler建议以3-5年甚至10年的长期眼光看待SpaceX。
* **零售投资者策略：** Tom Sosnoff认为零售投资者足够聪明，会理性对待，也许会很快抛售配股，并在期权市场寻找机会。
* **非认证投资者：** Teresa Arago提醒非认证投资者需谨慎，IPO风险高。
**九、 实时动态：**
* **开盘价指示：** 节目中，SpaceX的开盘价指示从175美元下降到168.75美元，后又降至165美元，显示市场在开盘前仍在进行价格发现和博弈。
* **NASDAQ现场：** Brooke De Palma描述了NASDAQ现场的紧张与兴奋，安保严密，数百人围观。
摘要
#yahoofinance #business #stockmarket
US stocks moved cautiously into the green at the opening bell on Friday as SpaceX (SPCX) readied for its historic debut, while investors assessed reports that the US and Iran are closing in on an interim peace deal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped 0.6%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) put on a more cautious 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) hovered at the flatline, following a surge in Wall Street stocks on Thursday as President Trump called off threatened strikes on Iranian targets.
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GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
欢迎来到雅虎财经《早间简报》。我是Julie Hyman，今天真是令人兴奋的一天。是的，今天是SpaceX日。对于那些关注的人来说，这无疑是个大事件，实际上每个人都在关注。Prasar Brumannian和我一起在演播室，还有Zach Guzman，他是雅虎财经的前任职员，也是Trustless Media的创始人。很高兴你回到我们这里。很高兴回来，感觉真好。感谢你在这里。真的感觉很棒。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Welcome to Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman, and boy, is it an exciting day. Yes, it is SpaceX Day. For those of you who observe, and let's face it, everybody observes, Prasar Brumannian here with me on set, and Zach Guzman, Yahoo Finance alum and founder of Trustless Media. It's great to have you back on set with us. Great to be back. Feels good. Thanks for being here. Good. It feels good.
你来这里的时间真是恰到好处，可以说是历史性的一天。对于那些在家观看但还不了解情况的人来说，SpaceX 正在进行史上最大的首次公开募股（IPO），共售出555,555股，每股价格为135美元，总共筹集了750亿美元，使公司总估值达到1.77万亿美元。人们对这次IPO感到非常兴奋。当然，也有一些人对此持怀疑态度，但外界的热情是显而易见的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you're here, obviously, on the day of days, I think we can say. So for those of you who are watching at home who don't know at this point, SpaceX, biggest IPO ever, 555,555 shares being sold at $135 each, raising $75 billion for a total valuation of $1.77 trillion. People are pumped about this IPO. So some people are skeptical about this IPO, but the enthusiasm is palpable out there.
Prasar，你一直在报道这件事。现在终于到了这一天，你有什么感想？这就像是一个很长的积累过程，不是缓慢地一点点渗透，而是逐步走向这个高潮。我们终于到了这一天。你知道，关于SpaceX的IPO，我们已经听了好几年，对吧？现在终于要发生了。我想，马斯克大概已经安排好了一切，对他在特斯拉的薪酬等问题有了妥善的解决。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Prasar, you've been covering this thing. Like, what does it feel like that we're finally at the day when it's happening? I mean, it's just been this long sort of, not really slow drip, but just been a buildup up to this pay. Finally, we're here, you know, hear about the SpaceX, you know, IPO for years now, right? And finally it's happening. Musk, I guess, sort of has his ducks in a row, right? With regards to he's solved his Tesla issues with compensation and things like that.
这和我们现在看到的情况有点关系，他在说，你知道吗？我将完全掌控局面，这是股票的双重股权结构性质。我不会在这个单一股本上搞小动作。是的，基本上，一旦这个东西一开盘交易，你知道，他会过得很好。不过，不仅仅是Starbase的员工，硅谷的许多最大基金和风险投资基金也都会赚很多钱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's sort of tying into what we're seeing here where he's saying, you know what? I'm going to be in full control, the dual class nature of the stockies. I'm not, is that going to mess around the single class here? Yes. And basically, once this thing opens and trades, you know, he's going to be doing quite well. But so will a lot of people, not just the workers at Starbase, but also many of the biggest funds, VC funds in Silicon Valley are going to be making tons of money.
我认为这将是A16有史以来最大、最重大的胜利，我们稍后可以详细讨论。但对我来说，这就是整个过程的最终成果，终于在这里出现。最大的疑问是，它会在哪里上市？是会上涨一个温和的20%还是会上演核弹级别的暴涨？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think it's going to be A16's like biggest, biggest win ever, which we can talk about in a little bit. But yeah, for me, it's just the culmination of this whole sort of process that we're finally seeing coming through here. Where is it going to open, right? That's the big question. Is it going to be just a nice 20% pop or is it going to be a nuclear type of launch to see there?
然后我们就要疯狂了。我们已经看到散户投资者变得疯狂了。银行也急切地想知道接下来会发生什么。所以我们拭目以待。问题是，它什么时候开始交易，对吧？这是一个问题。彭博社报道说，我们可能会在9点50分或10点左右看到报价开始，但我不确定这是否就是它实际开始交易的时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then we're going to be on crazy. And we're already seeing the retail investors go crazy. The banks are kind of already clamoring to see what's going to happen here. So we'll see. The question is, when will it start trading, right? That is the question. That is the question. Bloomberg is reporting that we could see it start to open for quotation around 9.50, 10 o'clock. But I don't know if that means when it will actually open.
画面中是纳斯达克的现场直播。他们通常会将其放在全屏显示。不过，这里没有展示的是活动人士在时代广场放置的那个巨大的埃隆·马斯克半身像。它看起来像通常的那种“大老鼠”充气模型吗？我觉得它比充气老鼠还大。这是一个半身像，真正的半身像，已经成了标志性的存在。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There you see the live shot of the NASDAQ. And, you know, they usually put up on the full screen. What's not pictured in this, by the way, is the big Elon Musk torso blow up that activists put up in Times Square. Is it looking like the rat? Like the normal rat blow up? I think it's bigger than the rat. It's like a bust. It's like a bust. It's a staple. It's truly a bust.
好的。那么，扎克，你现在在加密货币领域的涉足程度比在公共股票领域更深。对的。但是我很好奇。肯定有一个交集。像，那里有什么讨论或氛围吗？我觉得真的有很大的重叠，因为今年我们在加密货币领域看到的最令人兴奋的事情之一就是加密货币与传统金融的交汇。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So, Zach, you are now more steeped in the crypto world than in the public equity world. Yes. But I'm curious. Like, there's definitely a Venn diagram where there is intersection between those. Yeah. Like, what's the chatter? What's the vibe there? There's a huge overlap, I think, honestly, because one of the most exciting things that we've watched in crypto land this year is kind of crypto colliding with traditional finance.
在特别是IPO前的市场中，Hyperliquid已经成为热门平台，甚至连Coinbase也开始大量投资到这个平台。我们一直在关注，因为最近几次IPO，价格走势基本上与实际IPO开始交易时的价格相符合。这表明市场上存在一些投机行为。当然，这些平台上的市场流动性并不算很高，尤其在像Hyperliquid这样的平台上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And specifically in the pre-IPO market, it's been all the rage, Hyperliquid being the big platform that even Coinbase has now been throwing their money into. And we've been watching because for the last few IPOs, actually, price action has pretty much matched where things eventually start trading when the real IPO happens. So, there is speculation. Markets certainly are very – it's not very deep liquidity that we're seeing on platforms like Hyperliquid.
但是，思考一下你提到的一些定价动态是很有趣的。我们会在首日大幅上涨吗？我们拭目以待。但我认为，有些情况实际上与我想象得相符，至少在某种程度上反映出了大家的担忧——也就是IPO的失误，比如Facebook和Figma这样的公司，它们在首日股价飙升，但却错失了大量资金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But it is interesting to think about some of the pricing dynamics that you were talking about. Will we have a big day one pop? We'll see. But I think some of them have matched surprisingly well, at least in capturing what I think – which we can get into – what everyone fears, which is botched IPOs like Facebook and Figma and all these other ones where you have a huge day one pop and you leave so much money on the table.
或者你会看到一些散户交易者在这些交易中遭受损失。是的，这就是最大的担忧。因此，很多散户交易者表示他们不想参与其中，因为他们觉得那些在市场上待了很久的大玩家会先退出，从而让他们在早期阶段蒙受损失。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Or that you see a bunch of retail traders maybe get burned in some of these trades as well. Yeah. That's the big fear. And that's why a lot of retail traders have said they don't want to get into this because they feel like, you know, the big guys who have been in it for a while, they're going to exit and then leave them with losses, at least early on.
顺便说一下，你提到了Hyperliquid。我上次看到它的股票大约是$180。我最近没有查看过。据彭博社今早的报道，它涨了大约30%，对吧？是的，没错。现在看来，交易量也比平时高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
By the way, you mentioned Hyperliquid. The last I saw, the shares were there around $180. I haven't checked it. I haven't checked it lately. It's like a 30% pop, right? That's what Bloomberg was reporting this morning. It's like a 30% pop, right? Yeah, exactly. Which is bringing up right now. And the volume there has been, I think, higher than usual.
关于首次公开募股（IPO），对于您提到的几点，有几件事值得一提。首先，价格定为135美元，而不是在一个区间内，这的确很不寻常。有人对此进行了一些讨论，比如说，这是否在IPO过程中剥夺了价格发现的元素？我们需要区分IPO过程中人们获得股票分配的阶段和首次公开交易日，价格发现发生在股票进入公开市场之后。我觉得这是一个值得进行的健康讨论：如果不允许价格发现过程，是否减少了某些重要环节？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So to your point, like a couple of things to mention about the IPO. The fact that the price was $135 and not indicated for a range was unusual, right? It was. And so there has been some debate about, like, does that take out the price discovery element of it in the IPO process? And let's distinguish the IPO process where people get an allocation of shares and the first day of trading when price discovery happens once it hits the public market. So, and I think that's a healthy debate to have. Like, was this a, you know, is there something taken away by not allowing that process to happen?
我认为这对市场影响很大。不知道未来我们会不会被打脸呢？谁知道呢？结果可能会非常成功。但至少从市场应有的功能来说，市场应该是提供一种最公平的方式，并为个人投资者提供机会。我喜欢在雅虎财经工作，因为我总感觉我们站在个人投资者这一边。不过，这似乎的确削弱了市场的一些公平价格发现和透明度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think it takes away a lot. And I guess we'll see. We'll see if we eat our words on this. Who knows? Everything could be a slam dunk success here. But I think just in terms of at least what markets are supposed to be about, providing kind of the most fair way to go about this and providing access for retail traders. I loved working our Yahoo Finance because I always feel like we're on the side of retail traders mostly. But it does seem like it does remove at least fair price discovery, transparency from a little bit of this.
当然，我们也可以谈谈这件事，顺便说一句，可能我离开这个行业太久了。但看到富达和一些零售经纪公司威胁要对在一定时间内抛售股票的零售交易者限制首次公开募股（IPO）分配，我感到有些不适。这种做法一直都是这样吗？我知道这并不是一直以来的情况。尽管在其他发行中也出现过这种情况，但看到这种现象仍然让我感觉不太好。因为这样不仅意味着你不能以好的价格进场，而且即使进场后也不能轻易退出，否则就会被惩罚，是吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we can also talk about, by the way, maybe I've been out of the game too long. But seeing Fidelity and some of these retail brokerages kind of threaten bans on, like, IPO allocations for retail traders who dump shares within a certain amount of time. That, to me, I don't know. Has that always been the case? It rubbed me the wrong way. I know it hasn't always been the case. I mean, it has been the case for other issuances. But it rubbed me the wrong way seeing that, right? Because you're not only going to say you're not going to get in on the good price, you're going to get in later. And then when you get in, you can't get out. Otherwise, we're going to penalize you, right?
我有个问题想问Zach。不过，你认为人们在卖掉加密货币以投资SpaceX吗？我觉得这完全不真实，而且我们也听到很多人这样说。我知道你一直以来与Michael Saylor的采访都很棒，我很喜欢看这些采访。看到他努力推动这个想法——所有人都在抛售加密货币因为他们想投资SpaceX。我觉得这完全是错的。我觉得确实有一些人卖掉加密货币去投资人工智能，一般来说是为了追随下一个热门趋势，而在SpaceX方面可能只是在边缘上有一点影响。但是，我不觉得有多少，因为市场已经下跌了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I had a quick question to Zach, though. But do you think people are selling crypto to get into SpaceX? I think that was not real at all. And we heard that from a lot of people. I know you've, by the way, your interviews with Michael Saylor have been phenomenal. And I've enjoyed watching those all the time. And seeing him kind of try and push that idea, you know, everyone's just dumping crypto because they want to get into SpaceX. I think that's totally false. I think there was some crypto selling to get into AI, generally, to sort of just, like, follow the next momentum thing, maybe at the margin for SpaceX. But I don't know that there was any. I mean, it had already sold off.
好的。你的观点是对的，我确实查看了Hyperliquid，确实，成交量增加了大约10倍，股价降到了每股173元，这很有趣。我们确实在Twitter上做了一个调查，哦，不好意思，说习惯了，应该是在X平台上，看看大家觉得股价会如何开盘。得票最多的人认为会超过200元，但不会超过300元。根据我们的调查，少数人认为价格会保持在135元左右，大约19%的人认为在150元左右，约27%的人认为会超过200元，还有一些人认为会超过300元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yes. I mean, to your point, I did look, by the way, on Hyperliquid, and you are right, volumes are up, like, 10x, and the pricing there is 173 a share, which has come down. Which is interesting. Okay, so we did a poll, actually, on Twitter to see, on X, excuse me, old habits die hard, to see where people thought it would open. And the majority, the biggest votes went to above 200, but not above 300. So there's our poll, though, there are people, you know, the minority said it'll stay around 135, around 150 was, call that 19%, above 200 was like 27%, and then some people thought it would go above 300.
那么，关于我刚刚提到的那个事情，就是Hyperliquid，你说的，178？173？现在是173。这是一个28%的增长。所以相比于其他一些指标，这并不是非常大。对，但这个增长在20%到30%之间，挺不错的，说明你对它的估值还挺准确的。没有什么太夸张的地方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So just the back of the thing I meant, that Hyperliquid, that one, what did you say, 178? 173? 173 right now. It's a 28% pop. So not as big as some of the other indications. Right, but that's a pretty good, you know, 20 to 30%, it's like not bad, it's like you valued it pretty good. It's not crazy.
你知道的，在讨论价格是否合适这个话题时，另一面是马斯克，据说是他提出了这个数字。就像，他很清楚这家公司的价值，他认为这就是它的价值。人们也许会因此纷纷认同并跟随他的看法。这确实是个巨大的赌注，毕竟在计算交易之前估值是收入的100倍。有人认为他确实对情况了如指掌。他是一位知道如何筹集大量资金的人，而这就是股票的价值，也可能会一直保持在这个水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, to get back on that valuation thing about whether the price is right, on the flip side of the discussion is Musk, supposedly the one that came up with that number, and it's like, this guy knows what his, he's like, I know what this company's worth. This is what I think it's worth. And people sort of fall in line with that, and people sort of, maybe they agree with that, right? It's like, it's a big bet, 100x revenue, right, pre the compute deals. The argument is that he actually knows what's going on. He's a guy who knows how to raise a lot of money, and that's what the stock is worth, and that's probably where it'll be around.
好吧，因为你也可以说他的才华不一定是创新，虽然你可以这样争辩。营销，对吧。他的才华在于营销。他的才华在于讲故事。他的才华在于叙述。我的意思是，这周不止一个人对我说过，他在出售一种叙述。事实上，我想是SpaceX的早期投资者查德·安德森告诉我的，他说，人们是在购买叙述。我说，但在某个时候，这个叙述必须是真实的。所以，这也引出了另一个问题：很多人会说，谢谢，但我会观望一下，看看股票的表现，以及公司是否能够兑现所有承诺。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, because you could also argue his genius is not necessarily an innovation, although fine, you can argue that. Marketing, right. His genius is marketing. So, like, his genius is storytelling. His genius is narrative. I mean, more than one person has said that to me this week, that he's selling the narrative. In fact, Chad Anderson, I think, is the one who said that to me, who's an early SpaceX investor. He said, people are buying the narrative. I said, at some point, though, the narrative has to be true. And so that sort of is the other thing, is that there are a lot of people who say, no, thank you. I'm going to wait, see what this thing does, both what the stock does, and if the company can fulfill all of the promises.
是啊。我是说，显然，与太空有关，对吧？Pross，你比任何人都了解这一点。就像他们在这里出售的是一种叙述，我同意这一点，但这是围绕一个没有人真正理解且每个人都可以想象的事物的叙述。就像“最后的边疆”这个概念，你随便说什么都听起来合理，因为我们以前看过科幻小说。所以我确实认为这就是他在推销的东西。这有点像，嘿，它可以价值无限。因此，在这个IPO中，深入研究财务状况几乎是个无关紧要的问题。因为我们可以说，当然，从边际上来看，这些亏损在不断增加。但是，如果你成为占领太空的公司，这还重要吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I mean, obviously, with space, right? And Pross, you know this better than anybody, probably. Like, the idea of what they are selling here is the narrative, I would agree, but it's a narrative around something that no one really understands and everyone can imagine. Like, the final frontier is literally you just throw anything out there and it sounds reasonable. Because we've seen science fiction before. And so I do think that is what he's selling here. It's kind of like, hey, it could be worth anything. That's almost why with this IPO, it's kind of a moot point to dig into the financials. Because, like, we could say, sure, on the margin, hey, these losses are stacking up. But does it matter if you become the company that captures space?
好的，另一个问题是，我今天早上在会议上提到的事情：你认为有多少人知道SpaceX实际上不是一家以太空为主的公司？换句话说，他们在S1文件中提到的巨大的市场潜力中，最大的一部分并不完全与太空有关，而是与人工智能有关。没错，正如你所说，这涉及到他们的前AI业务、数据中心，还有一个在大型语言模型领域不算太突出的Grok。我不确定大家是否完全了解这一点，他们以为这是一家火箭公司。也许，他们知道Starlink这个项目，对吧。但是他们并不了解很大一部分资金是通过AI业务烧钱投资的，对吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, but the other thing is, like, the thing that I was talking about this morning in our meeting is, like, how many people out there do you think know that SpaceX is not a majority space company? In other words, like, the biggest part of the huge TAM that they came out with in the S1 is not about space per se. It's about AI. You're right, right. It's about the ex-AI business. It's about data centers. It's about Grok, which is, you know, sort of an also-ran when it comes to the LLMs. And I don't know that people fully understand that. They think that this is a rocket company. And maybe, like, a little, maybe they know about Starlink. Starlink, yeah, yeah, yeah, right. But they don't understand so much of it is an investment of cash burn from the AI business, right?
然后，像是上周，马斯克就说：“嘿，这是我们新的AI卫星。这里是它的工作原理。实际上，它比星链卫星还要简单。”我们想，嗯，好吧。不过，这也是那个愿景的重要部分，只是普通的零售投资者群体不一定都知道这些。我是说，买了的人可能知道，但我指的是一般的公众文化。最近奥本海默有一个报告指出，他们对这个领域的估值是每股190美元，并给出了优于大盘的评级。不过，他们的重点是，这一切实际上是一个大型数据中心布局，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, like, Musk had, you know, just last week, here's our new AI satellite. You know, here's how it works. It's actually simpler than a Starlink satellite. We're like, hmm, okay. But, yeah, that is a big part of that vision also is what's not necessarily well-known amongst the retail investment community. Yeah, I mean, people who are buying it might probably know. But I just more mean, like, people in general culture. Yeah, I mean, there was a note out from Oppenheimer about the, they value space, like, a 190 share, outperform rating, et cetera. But their whole thing is that this is all, this is a big data center play, right?
如果这都是关于太空中的数据中心，他们是可以做到的。他们可以发射这些中心。你知道，这需要很多次发射和大量的努力，但这是他们的一大赌注，对吧？如果他们不能做到这一点，他们在地面的项目也有很多进展，比如Colossus 1和2。他们已经证明他们能建造这些东西。所以，他们的一个保险是，他们实际上不必进入太空，他们可以在地面完成。当然，那些真正从事这个行业的超大型企业并没有那样的估值，而且他们确实在赚钱。我只是说这是他们的说法，对吧？我知道，我知道，我知道。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If it's all about data centers in space, they can do it. They can launch it. You know, it's going to take a lot of launches. It's going to take a lot of, you know, working it out. But that's their big bet, right? And then the backup is, oh, if they can't do that, they have a lot going on terrestrial, right? They have Colossus 1 and 2. They've shown they can build these things. So that's, like, the hedge is they don't actually have to go to space. They can do it out here. Sure, but the hyperscalers that are actually in that business, they're not valued like that, and they actually make money. I'm just saying that's what they say. Right? Like, I know, I know, I know.
我不是这样。伙计们，我们快点往下讲，因为你们之前提到过这个话题。早期投资者即便不能马上出售股份，也将从中赚取巨额利润。Founders Fund购买了3%的股份，花费6亿美元，现在这一部分股权价值500亿美元，回报相当可观。根据彭博社的报道，Andreessen Horowitz拥有大约100亿美元的股份，这是他们历史上最大的回报。红杉资本则持有约1.5%的股份。这些早期投资的基金不断增持股份。此外，还有一位名叫Justin Fisher-Wolfson的人在137 Ventures，他一点一点地持有，现在拥有公司约1%的股份。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm not. Guys, I want to move on just quickly, because you mentioned this earlier. Like, all of the early investors that are going to be making huge, huge money on this, even if they can't sell right away, right? You've got Founders Fund that bought 3% for $600 million. Now that stake is worth $50 billion. Pretty good return here. Andreessen Horowitz, according to Bloomberg, it's, I think, about a $10 billion stake, and they got the biggest return on anything in their history. Sequoia has about 1.5%. So, all of these funds that got in early and started adding and adding and adding, then there's the one guy at 137 Ventures, Justin Fisher-Wolfson, who, like, just chipped away at it and now owns about 1% of the company.
翻译成中文如下：
就像，所有这些人，你知道的，然后还有你提到的那些员工，Cross，他们正在赚很多钱。所以，我觉得今天这些人肯定在庆祝。我觉得我们也可以谈谈与这次上市相关的一些规则变化，特别是关于被动基金的。我们前不久在Coinage节目上采访了Mike Green，他谈到了他的担忧。是的，简而言之，他很长时间以来一直在讨论被动基金遇到的问题。随着这次的规则变化，我不知道你们是否也有同感。但基本上，是的，这些人肯定过得不错。但当所有这些指数更改了规则，使得SpaceX被强制纳入，而被动投资者可能不想在我们可能看到的价格水平上配置时，会发生什么呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, all these people that are just, you know, and then there's the employees that you mentioned also, Cross, who are making a lot of money. So, all of these people, for sure, I think, are celebrating today. I think we can also talk about some of the rules that are changing around this listing, too, when it comes to passive funds. We had Mike Green on the show on Coinage not too long ago kind of talking about his fears. Simplify, right? Yes. And he's been talking about that for a very long time, about passive funds are running into issues. And with this one and the rule changes, I don't know if you guys feel the same way about that, too. But basically, yes, these people are certainly doing great. But what's going to happen when all of these indexes have changed their rules so now SpaceX becomes forcibly in there and you have passive investors who might not want to be allocated to this at the prices we're going to see?
然后会发生什么呢？好吧，辩方认为他们只出售5%的流通股，因此最初的权重不会很大。但最终，随着那些早期投资者开始出售他们的股票，流通股会增加，权重也会增加。我必须说我同意这个观点。我觉得标准普尔做出了正确的决定，通过暂缓将其纳入来处理这一问题。我理解因为这个项目的规模和人们对此的兴趣，存在拉扯，但说实话，如果人们对此感兴趣，他们完全可以直接购买。即便不是马上买，他们可以在15天后，或者14天后，也就是无论什么时候这个项目进入纳斯达克时购买。总之，人们是可以购买的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then what happens to that? Well, the defense is like they're only selling 5% of float, so the weighting will not be heavy at first. But eventually, as people, as those early investors start selling their shares, the float will grow and the weighting will grow. I have to say I agree. I think that S&P, Dow S&P made the right call. By holding off. To not put it in right away. And I think, you know, but I understand the push-pull because of the size of this and because of the interest in it. But, like, if people are interested in it, they could just buy it. I mean, even if it's not right away, they can buy it, you know, in 15 days when it's going to go or 14 days, whatever it is, when it goes in the NASDAQ anyway. Like, people will be able to buy it.
是的，我的意思是，关于标普和道琼斯指数的观点确实很有道理，这两个指数在这方面显得相对谨慎。他们表示，我们设置了一些规则是有原因的，因为我们是美国甚至全球的基准指数。对于这只只有4.2%流通股的股票，我们需要小心。此外，你提到这里会有几个阶段，其中会有许多股票被解锁。我相信有一个条款指明，如果他们达到某些第二季度收益和收入指标，那些内部人士将获得更多股票出售的机会。首批的内部人士股票销售大约是在IPO的六个月之后。而其中最大的一次是在一年后，也就是马斯克可以开始抛售他的股份的时候。所以，我认为到那时你会看到大量的流动性涌入，这对股价来说可能是一个下行压力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yes. Yeah, I mean, it's a good point on S&P and Dow Jones actually being kind of a bit sober here on that, saying, hey, we have rules in place for a reason. We're the benchmark index in the U.S., perhaps the globe. Let's just be careful with this stock with only 4.2% float or whatever that might be. But also, you talk about there's going to be phases here where a lot of shares are going to be unlocked, right? There's a, I believe there's a clause that if they hit certain Q2 earnings stuff, revenue metrics, it'll unlock the ability for insiders to sell more. And then the first tranche of insider selling is, I think, it's six months after the IPO. And the big one is a year when Musk can start unloading his stuff if he wants to. So, I think that's when you're going to see massive amount of liquidity come in. And then that's a, you know, potentially down draft for the stock, right?
“是啊，那部分我不知道。我很想听听你们的看法，因为我已经不再每天关注IPO了。当我在想这会是什么样子时，我忍不住想起了Facebook的IPO。不是为了暴露我的年龄，但那时我就在校园里，就在马克创立公司的地方，看着这一切发生。那是2012年。如果有人知道Zach，他总是会在聊天中提到他上过的学校，而那所学校就是哈佛。嗯，这一次的情况还挺有共鸣的。是跟Facebook相关的，所以很合适。这是一个很自然的转折，来聊聊Facebook。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, that's the piece that, I don't know. And I'd love to hear what you guys think as, you know, as I've stepped away from covering NIPOs every single day. But the idea of kind of what this will look like, I was having massive flashbacks to Facebook and that IPO. And not to date myself, but I was on campus right next to where Mark started the company, watching that play out. And in 2012. If anyone knows, who knows Zach, he tends to drop in casual conversation where he went to school. And that school was Harvard. Well, you know, it's relatable this time around. It's a Facebook idea. It's relevant. It's relevant. Sure, sure. Totally natural segue. It was a natural segue to get into Facebook.
但就在那天，大家可能还记得，那种情况有点像你刚才说的，人们当时并没有真正意识到 Facebook 的潜力。他们只是把它看作一家广告公司，没有理解它未来可以成长到什么程度。但那次 IPO 确实很糟糕。我想我们都同意，那次情况更糟糕。你本可以等一等，在价格下跌 60% 的时候再进入市场，从而避免损失。顺便说一下，特斯拉其实也是类似的情况，对吧？它也经历了多年的缓慢发展，并没有太大动静。所以你有足够的机会去入手，但它当时并没有像这次这样被大肆炒作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But then on that day, as you guys remember, it was kind of one of those situations where I think similar to what you just said is like people didn't really appreciate what Facebook would be. They looked at it as an advertising company and didn't understand what it could grow into. But that was a terrible IPO. I think we'd all agree that was worse. You could have waited and had plenty of entry points where you would have saved yourself a 60% decline. I mean, you know, Tesla, by the way, is kind of the same way itself, right? That, you know, it kind of bumped along for years and didn't do anything. So you had ample opportunity to get in, but it wasn't as hyped as this one.
对，你说得对。然后事情就爆发了，对吧？对，最终确实如此。我的意思是，自那以后一直很不稳定。但最终确实起飞了。所以当今天开始交易时，马斯克基本上可以确定会成为万亿富翁，对吧？他的SpaceX股份在价格达到135时价值6900亿美元。特斯拉方面，他的净资产约为2790亿美元。所以，如果股票有所上涨，他很可能会实现这一目标。此外，回到NASDQ大楼外的那起事件，可以明显看到他随着个人形象和财富的增长也伴随着一些批评，对吧？有些活动家作为富人反对他，此外，他去年与政府的牵涉也没有对情况有所帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, you're right. And then it just went nuclear, right? Yeah, eventually it did. I mean, it's been volatile since then. But yes, eventually it did take off. So when this starts trading today, Musk is pretty much guaranteed to become a trillionaire, right? Even at 135, he's a trillionaire because his SpaceX stake is worth $690 billion at that 135. Tesla, his net worth there is about $279 billion. So, you know, it looks like he's probably going to make it if the stock gains at all. And, you know, going back to the torso, you know, the blowup outside the NASDAQ there in Times Square, I mean, obviously his growth in profile and wealth has come with, you know, some criticism, right? That activists have pushed back against him as a rich person, you know, but also his government involvement last year didn't help matters.
好的，我的意思是，如果你看看数据，自特朗普当选以来，他赚了大量的钱，对吧？他的整个赌注都为他带来了巨大的回报。不过，是的，他与白宫和政府有联系，但他在X上的很多发言本身也是一个话题。事实上，他发表的许多言论都相当有争议，甚至冒犯了一些人，但这似乎并不重要。他没有像普通的CEO那样受到惩罚，比如丢掉工作、公司股价下跌。似乎在SpaceX的情况下，这一切都被原谅、被遗忘了。不仅仅是SpaceX，对他而言，通常的规矩似乎都不适用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. I mean, if you look at the numbers, he's made a tremendous amount of money since Trump was elected, right? That whole bet has paid off big time for him. But yeah, you have the connection with the White House and the administration, but also just a lot of things he's posting on X, which is a story in itself. And the fact that he's putting a lot of stuff out there is pretty controversial and offensive to some people. And it doesn't seem to matter. It doesn't seem to be, he's not being punished like a normal CEO would have been punished, right? Like lost his job, company shares going down. It doesn't seem to matter when it comes to SpaceX. Like, that's all forgiven, all forgotten. Well, not even just SpaceX. It seems that the rules, normal rules in general do not apply to him.
我意思是，这可以追溯到他在SpaceX中拥有85%的投票权。这也反映了他以135美元的价格设定某个标准，并且很霸气地说“我宣布”。另外，这还涉及到所有券商限制散户投资者的问题，基本上就是这些人暂时不能出售他们的股票。我认为，这一切都与埃隆·马斯克的影响力有关。确实，不久以前，当特斯拉股票受到压力时，他还在做狗狗币的事情。这两者之间还是有些不同的，毕竟特斯拉的客户群更大，买车的人显然多于买飞船的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, and that goes back to the fact that he has 85% voting share in SpaceX as well. It goes back to the fact that he put it at 135 and he's just like, I declare. It goes back to the fact that all the brokerages are restricting people from retail investors, that this is the price of admission, that they're not allowed to sell their shares for a while. Like, to me, that all comes back to the power of Elon Musk. Right. I mean, it wasn't too long ago when you think about kind of when Tesla shares were under pressure back when he was still kind of doing the Doge things. And that was, I guess, a little bit different because there was a way, obviously with Tesla, more people buy cars than spaceships.
我认为普通消费者可能有办法反击。或者说，我们看到很多贴纸上写着“我是在马斯克成名之前买的这辆特斯拉”。所以，我觉得这种情况下是有一点区别的，因为这更像是企业对企业（B2B）的行为，而不是企业对消费者（B2C）的行为。但是，我认为很多人当时觉得这是一个糟糕的决定。现在，我想这就是一个很明显的例子，有一个非常富有的人做了这个赌注，现在结果正在显现。而且，就像你说的，Julie，你有机会改变所有的规则。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think there was a way for the average consumer to maybe fight back. Or maybe, you know, we saw all the stickers of, like, I bought this Tesla before Elon was Elon. And so, like, there is a little bit of a difference, I think, with this one, specifically just because of it being more of a B2B than a B2C play. But I think, you know, a lot of people thought that that was a terrible move back then. And now, I guess, you know, this is one of those clear cases of someone in this camp, a very rich man, makes the bet. And now it's playing out. And to your point, Julie, you're getting to change all the rules.
我不知道如果他几年前没有调整自己的立场，多少规则能够被改变。我只想提到，刚才发言的是阿迪娜·弗里德曼，她是纳斯达克的首席执行官。他们成功获得这个上市资格对于纳斯达克来说是一个真正的荣誉。但是，正如我们多次提到的，现在的压力在于如何确保一切顺利，而不是重蹈覆辙——比如当年Facebook的情况。那已经是很久以前的事了。人们会想，他们应该已经解决了那些问题。因为很多人不记得当时的情景了。他们确实是在门洛帕克的园区里完成了那件事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I don't know how many of those rules would be able to be changed if he didn't kind of align himself a few years ago. I just want to mention that's Adina Friedman, who is CEO of NASDAQ, who's speaking there. Them getting this listing was a real feather in the cap of the NASDAQ. But as we have alluded to multiple times, the pressure is now on to make it go right and not have – I mean, Facebook was a long time ago now. It was. One would think that they have – Fixed those glitches. Because many people don't remember. That was – they did that, right, at the campus in Menlo Park.
就像这是他们所谓的敲响了警钟的地方。是的，是的，所以那天有点尴尬，因为他们都站在那里，然后就说，嘿，这里有些技术故障。这看起来有点糟糕。所以，是的，已经过了很长时间了。可以推测，他们已经解决了那些问题。但是，压力很大。是的，确实压力很大。我觉得如果我们能在1点左右交易，应该没问题。但如果更晚的话，就开始有点担心了，对吧，开市会发生什么。这大概3点半才开市。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, that's where they rang the proverbial bell. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so it was an awkward day because they're all standing around and they're like, hey, there's some technical glitches here. And that was kind of a tough look. So, yes, it's been a long time. Presumably, they've gotten those ironed out. Yeah. But a lot of pressure. Yes, definitely a lot of pressure. I think if we get traded by 1 o'clock or so, we'll be fine. But any later in the day, it gets kind of worrisome, right, what's going to happen when it opens. It's going to open, like, 3.30.
不，我认为他们会尽可能早地促成这件事。顺便提一下，还有其他需要提到的事情。即使在开放之后，仍可能会因波动性而暂停交易，对吧？如果波动达到10%或以上，根据交易所的规则，就会暂时停止交易。我们看到其他地方的信息，纳斯达克称，他们不是负责开盘的那一方，开盘的是主要的市场做市商。所以，开盘不是由我们决定的，而是由他们决定的，看是否有足够的买卖双方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
No, I think they're going to make it happen as early as they possibly can. By the way, something else to mention. Even after it opens, you could have halts for volatility, right? If it swings by 10% or more, that's just the rules of the exchanges is that you get a temporary halt when that happens. And we've seen some other kind of sourcing. NASDAQ says they're not the ones that open the stock. It's the primary market maker that opens the stock. So, like, it's not in our hands to open the stock. Right. It's when they decide, you know, are there enough buyers and sellers on either side?
他们定下了合理的价格了吗？还有一个名叫绿鞋期权的东西，对吧？《华尔街日报》今天早上对此有个很好的解释。我听过很多次，但不确定自己完全理解了整个过程。基本上，承销商会卖出比发行量更多的股票，以便在有必要的时候再买回这些股票来支持股价。因此，这也是在这种情况下可以提供一些支持的手段。顺便提一下，SpaceX的格温·肖特维尔刚刚也被介绍了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Have they come to the price that makes sense? Also, there's something called the green shoe option, right? The Wall Street Journal had a good explainer on it this morning. I've heard it many times. I'm not sure I ever entirely understood the whole process. So, basically, the underwriters sell more shares than the offer size so that they can then come in and buy those shares to help support the price if necessary. So, that's, you know, so that's something also that can give a little support for that kind of situation. There's Gwen Shotwell of SpaceX who just got introduced as well.
她跑上去。我不知道你们有没有看到那个视频。她非常兴奋，这也在意料之中。一般来说，铃声会响起。然后，我们会等待一些开盘的指示。至少，通常都是这样进行的。你知道吧，接下来就是关于价格范围的报告，大家会讨论这个范围。但是我不确定这次是否会按这种方式进行。有些变化。就像我之前提到的，我们进行了一个关于股票开盘价的调查。我今天早上还另外做了一个调查，就是图个乐。我在X上玩的很开心，那里有很大的投票功能。是的，投票很热闹。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
She ran up. She was – I don't know if you guys saw the video. She was very excited, of course, as you might imagine here today. So, the way it works is the bell will ring. Then we'll wait for sort of opening indications. At least that's how it usually happens. You know, you get some reporting on, like, this is the range. This is where they're talking about. You get a drumbeat. But I don't know if that will happen that way this time around, right? Something else. Like I mentioned before, we had our poll about where the stock could open. I also did a separate poll this morning just for fun. I've been having fun with this on X. Big polling features. Yeah, big polling.
我问道，SpaceX的股票什么时候会跌到135以下？啊，这是个好问题。一些人——我本以为第一个反应会是零。我以为没人会说它今天就会跌到那儿。但有很多人，大约五分之一，认为今天可能会发生。我觉得承销商今天不会允许它跌到135以下，但谁知道呢？大多数人认为会在90天内。一些人说一年内。而当然，还有一大部分人认为永远不会。这些人是真正的信仰者，特斯拉的铁粉。你知道，他们就是那些想要获得配售的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I asked, when will the SpaceX shares fall below 135? Ah, that is a good question. Some people – I thought the first thing was going to be zero. I thought nobody would say it would happen today. But a bunch of people, like about a fifth, said it could happen today. I don't think there's any chance the underwriters would allow it to fall under 135 today. But who knows? The majority said within 90 days. Some people said within a year. And then, of course, there was a pretty strong contingent who said never. Yeah. They're the people who are the real believers. Tesla fanboys. You know, they're the people who are trying to get those allocations.
你们怎么看？我大概有50%的可能性支持这个观点。你认为在90天内会发生。我觉得是可以的，肯定会的。尤其是当你解锁更多的时候。Zach，你怎么看？老实说，我支持“今天就会发生”的那一派。我不知道这算不算是一个惊人的观点。哇，这真是个惊人的观点。我不认为那会发生。只是因为，我们没有按照你的观点来，没有那些我们平时应该享受到的东西，比如我们有多接近目标。对，范围变化了多少？之前的范围是什么？我们都是基于五倍以上的报道来判断的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What do you guys think? I'm in the 50% camp there. The one that – You think within 90 days. I think it will test that. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Yeah. Especially when you have more – when you unlock more – Yeah. What do you think, Zach? I think, honestly – put me in the today camp. I don't know if that's a hot take or not. Wow. That is a hot take. I don't think that will happen. Well, I just think, you know, we don't have – to your point, we don't have any of the things that we normally get to enjoy, which is, hey, how close were we? Right. How has the range changed? Right. What was the range before? We're going off the reporting of just, you know, five times over –
这家伙又回来了？是的，瑞恩又出现了。他还没有白头发，真不错。他要一直坚持到开市钟声响起。好吧，那我问你个问题。你觉得股票什么时候会跌破135呢？我一定要做这个预测吗？你从来不做预测，为什么我得做？我改变了，以前不做预测现在开始做了。我认为不会跌破135，只会继续上涨。永远不会吗？嗯，我不知道啊。永远吗，朱莉？我得先看看那份盈利报告。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
With this guy back in the building? Yeah. Ryan's rolling in here. No gray hair yet, man. That's awesome. He's going to take it to the opening bell here. Okay, so I'll ask you this question. Yeah. When do you think the stock will test 135 and go below? Do I have to give that prediction? You never give predictions. Why do I have to give a prediction? I've changed my tune. I'm starting to give predictions. It's not going to go below 135. I think it's going to just keep going. Ever? Well, I don't know. Ever, Julie? I've got to see that first earnings report.
嗨，快速说一下。你在介绍Adina Friedman——对，Friedman。顺便说个有趣的小知识，她拥有跆拳道黑带和飞行员执照。真厉害，Adina Friedman。对你来说，今天是个大日子，Adina。真是太给力了。我之前完全不知道这些事。说真的，她现在可能真的能打趴我。如果我说了SpaceX的坏话，她可能马上就能把我制服。我不确定。哦，你刚参加了High Rocks比赛，所以——不不，Adina真的很厉害。好吧，她能干掉我。如果你这么认为的话。我不清楚。那Elon呢？你觉得他能——不，绝对不行。绝对不。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hey, real quick. You were showing Adina Friedman – Friedman, yeah. Friedman. Fun fact, she is a black belt in taekwondo and a licensed pilot. Badass, Adina Friedman. Big day for you, Adina. Crushing it. I didn't – I didn't know any of those things. She could really, honestly, probably beat my ass right now. If I said anything bad about SpaceX, she could probably take me down and choke me out. I don't know. You just did that High Rocks race, so – No, no. Adina's badass. Okay. She'll kill me. If you say so. I don't know. What about Elon? You think he could – No, definitely not. Definitely not.
你看到他在时报广场露出的“男士胸肌”了吗？我看到了，那简直是他气球造型的主要特点之一。我只是想听你形容给他听。他必须要和Sazi训练。他一定得和Sazi训练。我对此持开放态度，对吧？两个亿万富翁一起训练。是啊，他之前可能要和扎克打一场，但最后没有成行。你开心这快结束了吗？事实上，这并没有结束。你的头发曾经全是黑色的。我知道，兄弟。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You see those man boobs on him out in Times Square? I did. That was definitely one of the primary characteristics of the blow-up thing. I just wanted to hear you describe it to him. No, no. He's got to train with Sazi. He must have got to train with Sazi. I'm open to it. Right? Two trillionaires training together. Yeah. Well, I mean, he had that whole fight that was maybe going to happen with Zuck. And then, of course – Are you happy this is almost dark? It never played out. It's not done. It's not done. Your hair was actually all dark. I know, dude.
但我知道我已经准备好结束这一切了。这是黑暗的交易。每个人得到的都是——随便什么。工作交接完毕。这是件好事。但这永远不会结束。永远不会结束。现在它要成为一家上市公司了。我们将不得不一直谈论它。每天，每天。好了，大家，这很有趣。Saz 会接手并——是的，我很激动。我准备好了。敲响战鼓。是的，我准备好了。它实际上开始交易。Zach，很高兴见到你。感谢你让我回来。非常感谢你的到来。随便拿些百吉饼，免费的。我会的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I know I'm ready for this to be over. It's dark trading. Everyone gets – whatever. Off and charge of work. It's good stuff. It's never going to be over. It's never over. Now it's going to be a public company. We're going to have to talk about it all the time. Every day. Every day. Well, guys, this has been fun. Saz is going to take it and – Yeah, I'm pumped. I'm ready to go. And beat the drum. Yeah, I'm ready to go. And it actually starts trading. Zach, lovely to see you. Thank you for having me back. Thank you so much for coming in. Grab some bagels. Free bagels. I will.
我们会在SpaceX日当天等待股票开盘时，一整天都会讨论这件事。这就是我们上午简报的全部内容。接下来是这位。他已经准备好起飞了。你能闻到Celsius的味道。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be talking – we'll all be talking again throughout the day as we wait for the stock to open up on SpaceX Day. That's us for a morning brief. This guy is next. Get ready to blast off. He's ready. You can smell the Celsius.
是的。孩子、兄弟姐妹、父母。这在很多时候是件大事，当你发现自己在观看某些事情时，似乎遗漏了许多人。孩子似乎是被错过的一个重点。这在很多时候是件大事，当你发现自己在观看某些事情时，似乎遗漏了许多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. The children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people. That it seems to be a child. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people.
在很多时候，当你看到手表时，你会发现遗漏了许多人，这是一件重要的事情。在很多时候，当你看到手表时，你会发现遗漏了许多人，这是一件重要的事情。在很多时候，当你看到手表时，你会发现遗漏了许多人，这是一件重要的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people.
很多时候，当你看到手表时，意识到错过了很多人，这是一件大事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people. It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people.
在很多时候，这是一个很重要的事情，当你观察时，你会发现你错过了很多人。你没有留意到很多人，这件事情在许多人中都很重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's a big thing in a lot of times when you see watch that you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people. It's a big thing in a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人，错过了很多人，错过了很多人，错过了很多人，错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人，你真的错过了很多人，你确实错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人，真的错过了很多人，真的特别特别多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人，真的错过了很多人，确实错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人，你错过了很多人，你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people and you're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你已经错过很多人了。你已经错过很多人了。你已经错过很多人了。你已经错过很多人了。你已经错过很多人了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你遗漏了很多人。你遗漏了很多人。你遗漏了很多人。你遗漏了很多人。你遗漏了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
有许多人你没有考虑到。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你漏掉了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。你已经错过（遗漏）了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。你已经错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。你错过了很多人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people.
你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你漏掉了很多人。你遗漏了很多人。Rocket Labs 在今天表现不错，此前在星期四上涨了9%。一些重要的承销公司，如摩根大通和高盛，股票表现良好。你也要关注这一点。它们可能会在第三季度的IPO中获得可观的费用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. You're missing a lot of people. Rocket Labs is putting a good showing out of the gate today after a 9% pop on Thursday. Shares with some of the key underwriters in the space. You have to watch this too. Are in the green, namely J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Each could show sizable fees in the third quarter from the IPO.
我们将在雅虎财经全天对SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO）进行全方位报道。我的意思是，真正的全方位报道，不仅会在我们的网络上进行直播，还会在雅虎财经首页、我们的应用程序Alpha Space以及我们的社交平台上发布。这是零售投资者社区的一个重要日子，我们将为您提供全程服务，毋庸置疑。我们的记者Brooke De Palma正在时代广场的纳斯达克现场进行报道。Brooke，你听到了一些Elon的评论。你见到May了吗？我在大厅里见过May，但没有看到她在开市钟声期间出现。May Musk当然就是Elon Musk的妈妈，今天她显然在庆祝。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We will have wall-to-wall coverage of the SpaceX IPO here at Yahoo Finance all day. And, I mean, wall-to-wall, not just live on our network, but on the Yahoo Finance homepage, our app, Alpha Space, and our social channels. It's a big day for the retail investing community, and we got you full stop. No doubt about it. Y'all finds Brooke De Palma is right in the middle of the action of the NASDAQ in Times Square. Brooke, you caught some of those Elon comments. Have you seen May at all? I did see May in the lobby. I did not see her come out during the opening bell. May Musk, of course, that's Elon Musk's mom, certainly celebrating today.
SpaceX如今正走向历史上最大IPO，这是一项惊人的成就。这实际上是埃隆·马斯克自己都难以想象的事情。事实上，他甚至在SpaceX总部和纳斯达克的员工面前表示，当有人告诉他这一切即将发生时，他说：“你是在开玩笑吧。”这是马斯克今天在纳斯达克开市钟声前对员工所说的话。我告诉你，布莱恩，我从未感受到像今天早上一样的IPO氛围。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's an amazing accomplishment that SpaceX is now headed towards being the largest IPO in history. It was actually something that Elon Musk seems like he could even wrap his head around. In fact, he even told his workers at the SpaceX headquarters and the NASDAQ, the employees right behind me, tuning in remotely. He said that actually when someone told me this was going to happen, I said you must be smoking crack. That's what Elon Musk had told employees during today's opening comments before that bell ringing at the NASDAQ. And I'll tell you, Brian, I have never felt an energy around an IPO like this one this morning.
是的，Brooke，今天真的是不寻常的一天。这一刻令人难以忽视。我是说，这对全球投资者和市场来说都是历史性的一刻。你可以看到在纳斯达克的活动，这是有史以来规模最大的一次IPO，Brooke。今天将会是重要的一天。期待看到那只股票上市开盘。我们会很快与你保持联系，Brooke。感谢你。好了，现在我们有Tom Sosnoff，他是Lost Dog的创始人兼首席执行官，也是TastyTrade的创始人和前首席执行官。还有Truist的首席投资官和首席市场策略师Keith Lerner，以及Laffer Tengler投资公司的首席执行官兼首席投资官Nancy Tengler。大家早上好，今天真的是一个具有历史意义的日子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, Brooke, it is quite the day. You can't help but to -- it is a moment. I mean, it is a historic moment for investors, for markets all around the world. The largest ever IPO you see in the activity right down there at the NASDAQ, Brooke. It's going to be a big day. Can't wait to see that stock open. We'll be in touch with you soon, Brooke. Appreciate it. All right. Here to break it all down, we have Tom Sosnoff, Lost Dog founder and CEO and the founder and former CEO of TastyTrade. Keith Lerner, Truist chief investment officer and chief market strategist. And Nancy Tengler, Laffer Tengler, investment CEO and CIO. Good morning to you all on really what is a historic day.
汤姆，让我先从你开始。帮我梳理一下这里的一些基础设施和流程。吸收这些股份有多困难？这是一个相当合理的问题。嗯，显然并不难，因为这次发行已被超额认购，似乎有非常多的兴趣。你看，这已经成为大家现在谈论的热点话题。所以，我的意思是，当你谈论吸收这些股份时，这个市场几乎能吸收任何东西。而这次，我觉得，从1到10的难度等级来看，我会说它是10，吸收起来相当容易。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Tom, let me start with you. Walk me through some of the plumbing and the infrastructure here. How hard is it to absorb all of these shares? That's a pretty fair question. Well, obviously not very hard because the offering is oversubscribed and it seems like there's an incredible amount of interest. And look, it's all everybody's talking about right now. So, I mean, when you talk about absorbing it, this market's been able to absorb virtually anything. And this one seems like, I mean, on a scale of 1 to 10, I would say it was a 10, pretty easy to absorb.
Keith，你知道，我回顾了你在这次IPO之前所做的工作。跟我们简单讲一下，因为关于SpaceX的一切总是有很多炒作。但我们要记住，炒作并不保证SpaceX在今年剩余时间里会有更大的增长。从历史来看，情况并非总是如此。是的，当然。我还想补充一下关于最后一个问题的内容，你知道，市值是750亿美元，所以并不是说马上就会有一万亿美元的股票上市。我认为随着时间的推移，锁定期解禁会增加供应。但目前来看，这还是可以管理的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Keith, you know, I was going back to the work that you put out there in the lead up to this IPO. And walk us through it a little bit because there's a lot of hype, of course, with all things related to SpaceX. But let's keep in mind, it's not guaranteed that the hype carries SpaceX to bigger gains for the rest of the year. That's not how historically this works. Yeah, sure. And I would also just mention on the last question, you know, it's $75 billion. So, it's not as though a trillion dollars' worth of shares are coming to market right away. I think over time we'll see those lockups add more supply. But it's manageable, you know, at this point.
关于IPO的问题，首先，我们回顾了过去15年的情况，研究了大约30个主要IPO的表现。研究结果显示了几个关键点。首先，在短期内，也就是从首日交易结束后开始的几个月里，IPO的表现往往略有正向偏差。但当观察6到12个月的表现时，情况就变得有些不同，事实上，这些IPO在这个时间范围内上涨的几率只有大约40%。不过，这其中的差异还是非常大的，布莱恩。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And to your point around IPOs, just as a starting point, what we did is we looked at the last 15 years, and we looked at performance of the major IPOs, probably about 30 of them. And what we found in the research is a couple of things. First, I think in the near term, from the close of the first day, there's a bit of a positive skew over the next few months. But as you look at six to 12 months, there's actually been more of a negative skew with those IPOs only up about 40% of the time. But there's a huge variation, Brian.
我们在工作中发现的一个非常显著的点，我认为这对于观众理解非常重要，那就是当我们观察下一年的最大涨跌幅时，平均值大约是50%，而最低值是20%。这意味着什么呢？这并不是说股票没有上涨，而是说在某个时候达到了高点，然后出现了下跌，有时候下跌幅度还非常大。因此，我建议投资者们要有心理准备，做好紧抓不放的准备。因为在这些首次公开募股（IPO）中，尤其是在刚上市时，波动性是很高的。但请记住，一只股票某一时刻可能下跌了20%或50%，这样的波动是非常大的，不是一般股票在下一年会经历的情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The one thing that really stood out in our work, and I think this is really important for the viewers to understand, is that when we looked at the maximum peak to drawdown over the next year, the average was about 50%. And the lowest was 20%. So, what does that mean? It doesn't mean that actually the stocks didn't go up. It means at some point it hit a high and you saw a drawdown and sometimes pretty violent. So, I think investors just be aware that you have to hold on, strap in tight because with these IPOs, especially as discovery as they come out, the volatility is high. But again, think about something that was down at some point 20% or 50%. That's pretty big and not something that an average stock sees during the next year.
南希，你认为这是否是因为埃隆·马斯克在这里的参与度很高，这是另一家埃隆·马斯克的公司，人们对获得更多关于他和SpaceX的信息充满了强烈的兴趣？SpaceX会不会是打破上市后低迷趋势的一家公司？这有可能，比恩。我觉得这些警告是合理的。但如果回顾以往，虽然有人把它与Meta相比，但我们认为与亚马逊更为相似，因为亚马逊是彻底改变我们生活和商业方式的公司。自上市以来，亚马逊的股价上涨了243,000%，并且上市一年后就出现了巨大的涨幅。所以问题是，这是否是一家能够激发投资者想象力的公司及其上市？对于我们而言，我认为确实是这样的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Nancy, do you think it's because Elon is so involved here, this is another Elon Musk company, there's been a large appetite to get another piece of Elon Musk and SpaceX? Is SpaceX the one that bucks this trend, this post IPO hangover? It could, Brian. I mean, I think the warnings are well-placed. But if you go back and look, I mean, the analogy has been drawn to meta, but our analogy is closer to Amazon, which was a company that changed the way we lived and did business, right? And so, Amazon, since the IPO is up 243,000%, and it was up quite dramatically one year out. So, the question becomes, is this an IPO and a company that captures the imagination of investors? I think it is for us, it certainly is.
我们有一个以主题为基础的投资组合，其中一个主题是太空。因此，我们看到资金来源于Rocket Lab、Rocket Labs、Planet Labs，未来可能还有英伟达。因此，我们正在购买其中一些公司的股票，并且已经下单购买SpaceX的股票。我们的投资时间跨度是三到五到十年，而不是只看一年。南希，你觉得五到十年后SpaceX会怎么样？哦，我的意思是，你得理性看待一些预测，比如埃隆提到的可达市场规模为28.5万亿美元。有趣的是，其中大部分来自目前烧钱厉害的AI业务部分。但我们预期将在2027或2028年与特斯拉合并。因此，我不知道，你可能会看到这家公司的市值和收入的增长真的会呈现指数级增长，现在我甚至无法量化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We have a thematic portfolio that is one of the themes is space. And so, you know, we're seeing the source of funds coming from Rocket Lab, Rocket Labs, Planet Labs, and then potentially Nvidia. And so, we're in buying some of those names and we have our orders in for SpaceX. So, our time horizon is three to five to ten years, much more so than a year from now. Nancy, where do you see a SpaceX five to ten years from now? Oh, well, I mean, you have to take some of the predictions with a grain of salt. So, Elon's talked about a total addressable market of 28.5 trillion. Interestingly, the majority of that is coming from the current cash incinerator, which is the AI portion of the business. But we're expecting a merger with Tesla in 2027, 2028. And so, you know, I don't know. You could see this company's not only market cap, but revenue growth really be exponential. And I can't even quantify it at this point.
汤姆，让我把你拉进来。关于SpaceX的前景，有一点被提到了，而且我想很多人也已经讨论了一下，但我还是想再提一下。特斯拉现在拥有SpaceX的1900万股股票。是不是因为这种关系，这两个公司的股票会同步交易呢？我对此不太确定，至少不会马上。我认为SpaceX会处于自己的一个波动性较大的状态，直到大家弄清楚它的情况。尤其是因为特斯拉最近的表现有些疲软。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Tom, let me get you in here. You know, as part of the perspectives on SpaceX, it was noted, and I think a lot of folks have talked about this in a bit, but I'm going to bring it back up. Tesla now owns 19 million shares of SpaceX. Are these stocks, SpaceX and Tesla, now, because they're so intertwined through that perspective, they're likely to trade in unison? I don't know about that, at least not at least not right out of the chute. I think SpaceX is going to be in its own little volatile world until everybody kind of figures it out. So I especially because, you know, Tesla's been a little bit more on its butt lately.
所以我会说，作为一名交易员，我并不认为这两者必须紧密关联在一起。因此，我会分别交易它们。我认为大多数其他人至少在未来一年左右也会如此独立地进行交易。汤姆，如果有人相信马斯克和他的SpaceX愿景，他们应该如何交易SpaceX呢？嗯，有所谓的“马斯克效应”。实际上，我觉得这有点可怕，因为我不太喜欢这种情况。就像我有“好亿万富翁”和“坏亿万富翁”之分，而我将埃隆归在“坏亿万富翁”的那一类。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I would say that, you know, and as a trader, I'm not looking at those two to kind of be attached to the hip. So I'm going to trade them. And I think most other people are going to trade them very independent of one another, at least at least for the next year or so. Tom, if one is a believer in Musk and his SpaceX vision, how should they go upon trading SpaceX? Well, there is this Elon Musk effect. And it's kind of actually, I find it to be scary because I don't like, you know, I actually, I have this good billionaire, bad billionaire thing. And I've got Elon in the bad billionaire camp.
为什么呢？我其实不太喜欢所有与埃隆·马斯克相关的东西。我认为你提到的有可能是一个单点故障的问题。为什么你将埃隆归为不好的亿万富翁行列？首先，他创造了赛博卡车。我讨厌在这些车后面开车，汤姆，所以我同意你的看法。另外，我觉得自己是一个有点人道主义视角的人，而27万名公务员因为他成为最富有的人而失去工作，这让我对他没有好感。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Why is that? So I don't really love, you know, everything tied to Elon. I think there's, you know, you are talking a little bit about a single point of failure potentially. Why do you have Elon in the bad billionaire camp? Well, for starters, he created the cyber truck. I hate being behind those things, Tom. So I agree with you there, man. Yeah. And, you know, the other thing is, look, I like to think of myself as somebody that has a little bit of a humanitarian view of the world. And I think 270,000 civil servants losing the job because of him being the richest person, it doesn't make me love the guy.
好的。Keith，你认为在SpaceX上市之前，被用作资金来源的一些股票会怎样？我指的是Mag7以及热门的人工智能股票，比如美光和Sandisk。市场上都有传闻说这些股票被抛售，是为了让普通投资者有足够的钱去投资SpaceX。对，这很有趣，Brian。我认为除了SpaceX之外，还有其他因素。如果你看看今年的Mag7整体情况，你可能会惊讶地发现它们总的来说今年是下跌的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Fair enough. Keith, what do you think this moment means for some of the stocks that have been used as sources of funds in the lead up to the SpaceX IPO? I'm looking at the Mag7. I'm looking at a lot of the hot AI names of Micron and Sandisk. You know, the chatter in the market has been these stocks have been sold, so the average investor has enough money to go out and play SpaceX. Yeah, you know, it's interesting, Brian. I think there's other factors besides this, you know, SpaceX. If you look at the collective Mag7 this year, I think it would surprise people that they're actually collectively down this year.
我相信实际上只有七个中的四个有上涨。而且值得注意的是，标普小盘科技股上涨了50%。所以，我认为过去几年这些公司已经有了很多发展。这些是万亿美元市值的公司。我觉得我们已经看到了一些关于供应增加的担忧。但同时也有关于资本支出和债务增加的问题。资金实际上已经流向了其他领域以及基础设施类的公司。因此，我认为两者都有发展的空间。如果您从整体市场的角度来看，人工智能和科技是主要趋势。从历史来看，这种主导趋势往往会持续到牛市的结束。所以，如果您认为牛市仍在继续，我认为两者都有发展的空间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I believe only four of the seven are actually up. And what's also notable is the S&P small cap tech is up 50%. So, you know, I think there's already been some, you know, these companies have moved a lot over the last couple of years. They're trillion dollar companies. And I think part of what we've seen is maybe there's some concern about more supply coming in. But there's also the question about all the capex spending and the debt raising. And money has actually been trickling down to other areas and the picks and shovels. So, you know, I think there's room for both. I think, you know, as you think about overall the market of the AI and tech is the dominant theme. And when we look back at historically, that dominant theme tends to persist to the end of the bull market. So, if you think the bull market's still in place, I think there's room for both.
但我仍然认为市场正在超越Mag7寻找其他机会，这已经发生了。现在有一个关于太空经济的新前沿问题，我认为这将开始真正开放，并会有更多关于这意味着什么以及谁可能受益的讨论，也许现在还不是上市公司，但可能是未来的上市公司。Keith，你认为这次的IPO，历史上最大的IPO，标志着牛市的结束吗？不，我不这么认为。你知道，有时候我们经历过的历史情况是，某个主导牛市的主要行业在达到高峰时出现一些事情。但就像我们之前谈到的一些事情一样，你可以回顾一下，比如现在的Facebook或Meta。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I still think kind of what's already happened is the market is seeing beyond the Mag7 for other opportunities. And now there's this whole question about this new frontier as far as space, the space economy, which I think will start to really open up and more discussion around what that means and who are some of the other players that could benefit, maybe not even public companies today, but the public companies of tomorrow. Keith, do you think this IPO, biggest IPO in history, this marks the end of the bull market? No, I don't think so. You know, I know sometimes that we have had historically, you know, where you have something come out towards a peak as far as the main sector driving the bull market. But, you know, as we kind of talked about some things earlier, you know, you look back at, you know, Facebook or Meta today.
当时它刚出来的时候，我们都知道在三个月内跌了45%。但那是在2012年，那并不是顶点。今天的谷歌或Alphabet是在2004年出现的，那也并不是牛市的结束。我想说，在调整之前，科技行业曾在短时间内反弹了47%。因此，我认为我们一直在期待科技股交易的暂时停顿，尽管我们仍然看好，因为盈利表现依然良好。但直接回答你的问题，我并不认为这标志着结束。不过，显然由于这个原因，短期内确实带来了一些兴奋。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when it came out, we all know it was down, I think, you know, 45% over three months. But that was in 2012, that didn't, you know, that wasn't the peak. And when Google or Alphabet today came out, I think it was 2004, that wasn't, you know, the end of the bull market. I do say, you know, we've had this, you know, off the lows before the pullback, tech had a 47% move over a short period of time. So, I do think, and we've been looking for more of a pause in the tech trade, even though we're still positive because the earnings are there. But no, to answer your question directly, I don't think this marks the end of it. But obviously, some excitement has come in here short term because of it.
在 SpaceX 即将进行首次公开募股（IPO）的时候，我们走上街头，询问普通投资者和普通人，他们对马斯克和 SpaceX 的看法。听听他们的意见吧。我想了解，SpaceX 是否是一个明智的投资选择？社会对一个人成为美国的万亿富翁有什么看法？这对我们的社会有什么影响？南希，这次 IPO 对社会有什么影响？
嗯，听我说，杰夫·贝佐斯曾在一次采访中提到，大家可能会因为我是亿万富翁而讨厌我。但如果你看看亚马逊为普通消费者所做的一切，它节省了时间、麻烦和金钱。怎么能给这些东西定价呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, it's in the lead up to the IPO, SpaceX IPO, guys, we hit the street. You know, we're asking that average investor out there, the average person, what they thought about Musk and SpaceX. Take a listen. I'd like to hear, does it make sense as an investment? What is kind of the opinion on having an individual human being as a trillionaire in America? What are the implications that it has for our society? Nancy, what implications does this IPO have for society? Well, I mean, listen, there was a great interview with Jeff Bezos where he said, you know, you can hate me because I'm a billionaire. But if you go back and look at what Amazon has done for the average consumer, it's save time, hassle, money. What how do you put a price on that?
所以，如果我们在太空中建造数据中心，并且实现了招股说明书中所提到的一半内容，尽管要注意其中存在的关键人物风险因素，我认为可以说这对社会和普通投资者有积极的影响。我不喜欢整件事情的政治方面，那对我来说无所谓。我持有很多公司股票，但并不一定喜欢那些公司的CEO，但这并不意味着他们不是出色的企业运营者和富有远见的人。我认为埃隆·马斯克已经证明了自己是一位优秀的运营者，尽管有时会有延迟，同时也是一位有远见的人。而且，如果你仔细看特斯拉的超级电池业务，它在可再生能源方面的储能对社会以及普通能源消费者都有深远的影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if we get data centers in space, if we see half of what's outlined in the prospectus with the caveat that there's a definite key man risk factor. I think you can say this has a positive implication for society and for the average investor. So I don't like the political side of the whole thing. I don't really care. There's a lot of CEOs I own stock in their companies and I don't like them as individuals. But that doesn't mean they're not really good operators of their business and visionaries. I think Elon Musk has proven he is a good operator with some time lags and a visionary. And, you know, if you just look at the mega pack battery business in Tesla, energy storage for renewable energy, that has a profound implication for society and for the average consumer of energy.
所以，有很多值得喜欢的地方，也有许多让人讨厌的东西。但在这次特别的IPO中，我觉得你应该参与，我也认为这将最终对社会有益。南希，作为一个研究过很多财务报表并进行了大量数据分析的人，这次IPO对老牌国防企业如洛克希德·马丁、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼，甚至试图与埃隆·马斯克一较高下的波音意味着什么？这些投资现在真的不吸引人吗？我不认为它们不吸引人，我认为它们在某些投资组合中仍然有一席之地。不过，你要考虑到那个关于深度搜索的宣布和齐文斯悖论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there's a lot of things to love, a lot of things to hate. But in this particular IPO, I think you want to participate and I think it will ultimately be good for society. Nancy, as someone that studies a lot of financial statements, crunches a lot of numbers, what does this IPO mean for the old school defense plays like a Lockheed Martin, a Northrop Grumman, even a Boeing, which has tried to go toe to toe with Elon Musk. Are those just really unattractive investments at this point? I don't I don't think they're unattractive. I think they have a place in certain portfolios. But, you know, you go back to the whole deep seek announcement and Jevon's paradox.
我们在购买那些被重创的股票。通常，当某个特定行业或主题获得巨大成功时，会引起关注。现在，我们发现资金来源至少在我们看来来自于Planet Labs、Rocket Labs、Kratos等公司。我们将拭目以待投资者是否会重新关注这些公司。我认为他们也会重新关注视频行业。实际上，我们已经将其添加到我们的价值投资组合中，信不信由你。两年前，在Bard发布后谷歌被市场抛弃时，我们将谷歌纳入了我们的价值投资组合。所以在这个细分市场中仍有机会。但是毫无疑问，其他公司在此方面是落后的。而且，众所周知，有一篇重要文章讨论了洛克希德·马丁公司为何需要这么长时间来制造爱国者导弹。所以我们必须寄希望于这能加快实施进程。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We were in buying a lot of the names that were getting clobbered. What often happens is that a big success in a particular sector or theme will draw attention. Now, we have seen the source of funds, at least in our view, has come from Planet Labs, Rocket Labs, Kratos. We'll see if investors return to those names. And I think they will in video as well. We actually added it to our value portfolio, believe it or not. We had we added Google two years ago to our value portfolio when it was left for dead after the Bard announcement. So there are opportunities in here for other aspects of the segment. But make no mistake, these other companies are behind. And, you know, there was a big article about why it takes Lockheed Martin so long to build a Patriot missile. So you have to hope that this will speed up implementation.
我想回到街头调查一下。我们也问了一些人，他们认为这次IPO会成功吗？来听听他们的看法。我想问，现在投资会不会太晚了？你觉得它真的会成功吗？汤姆，从IPO的角度来说，这次是成功的吗？特别是它即将上市，看起来可能会在中午前开放交易。要谈谈它的成功，我觉得，这真是一次绝妙的公关操作。他们从这次IPO中获得的宣传效益不可思议，相当于价值上百亿美元的宣传和营销等。因此，从这个角度来看，我认为这是非常成功的。那些参与并分配到股票的人会不会有回报呢？我认为答案是肯定的，原始股东也会有回报。所以从这个角度来看，我觉得这肯定是一次成功的IPO。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I want to take it back to the streets. We also asked folks if they thought this would be a successful IPO. Take a listen. I would say, is it too late for me to invest now? And do you think it's actually going to be successful? Tom, is this a successful IPO just from the standpoint that it's coming public and it looks like it might open before noon? I mean, if you want to talk about it success wise, I mean, it's one of the most brilliant PR moves. The way the amount of PR that they got from this IPO is just incredible. I mean, it's tens of billions of dollars worth of PR and marketing and everything else. So from that standpoint, I would say, yeah, it's a hugely successful. Are people that are participating in the, that were allocated stock, are they going to be rewarded? And I think the answer is yes. And the original shareholders are going to be rewarded. So from that standpoint, I think, yeah, it's a successful IPO for sure.
当你看今天的市场时，标普指数下跌，纳斯达克也在下跌。市场的反应，今天开盘时很多股票的表现有点奇怪。你可能没想到会这样，但我们来看看市场会有怎样的反应。我觉得你的另一个问题也很有意义。你知道，这会是市场的转折点吗？将来回过头来看，我们会说“这就是牛市的最高点”吗？我不知道，但这很有趣。汤姆，我一直知道你是散户投资者的支持者。这对普通投资者来说也是一个重要的时刻，因为股票在各种平台上的分配，比如Robinhood之类的，都具有一定影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When you look at the markets today, you know, S&Ps are down, NASDAQ's down. The market's not, the reaction of a lot of stocks just on the opening today is kind of strange. You wouldn't, maybe you wouldn't have thought that this would happen, but, you know, so let's see how the market reacts. And, and I think your other question was pretty fair. You know, is this a, is this a transformational moment in the market? Is this, is this what we're going to look back at and say, hey, you know what? This was the top of the bull market. I don't know, but it's interesting. Tom, I've always known you to be the champion of the retail investor. And this is also a big moment for the average investor out there. Just given how the stock was allocated on various platforms, Robin, and you name it.
你觉得散户投资者会被套牢吗？我不这么认为，我觉得散户投资者相当聪明。如果有人会被套牢，那很可能是那些机构投资者。那些觉得自己必须参与的机构，或者是未来几周里没有提前行动的指数基金持有人。我认为会有很多401k计划和各种被动型指数基金受影响。我觉得个人投资者不会在购买方面碰这些产品。如果他们已经分配了资金，我认为他们会在第一天就卖掉。不过，我认为下周期权市场一推出，这将成为交易方面最热门的新产品之一。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Do you think the retail investor will be left holding the bag? No, I think the retail investor is too smart. I think if anybody gets left holding the bag, it will be, it'll be the institutions that feel like, you know, the, I mean, it'll be a couple of things. It'll be institutional institutions that think they have to participate, or it'll be potentially index fund holders over the next couple of weeks if they haven't already, you know, tried to front run this. I think it'll be a lot of, you know, 401ks and a lot of just different in passive index funds. I think the individual investors won't touch this from a buying standpoint. And if they were allocated, I think they'll sell out first day. But I think next week when they launch the option markets right away, I think this will be one of the hottest new offerings as far as, you know, trading goes.
所以我认为你将会看到大量的散户投资者。我认为将在接下来的几周内成为大家关注的热点。我觉得它将成为交易最活跃的标的，涉及期权和股票。我们在投资者教育方面做了充分的准备。我想展示一下这个图表，这是Rand Group那边的人做的，真的显示了IPO常见的生命周期。当然，大家可以看到很多炒作，股票继续上涨。然后会进入一个价格下跌或横盘整理的阶段，这时候公司需要通过财务报告、财务报表、公司业绩电话会及投资银行介绍来证明自己的实力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think you're going to see a ton of retail investors. I think this is going to be the thing everybody gravitates to in the next couple of weeks. I think it'll be the, I think it'll be the most actively traded underlying both options and stock. We have a good dose of investor education. I want to put up this, this graphics, this illustration from the folks over at Rand Group, really showing the life cycle of what normally happens with an IPO. Of course, you can see a lot of the hype there. Stock continues to go up. And then there's a period of down to sideways trading action as the company tries to prove itself via financial reporting, its financial statements, its earnings calls, its investment bank presentations.
凯斯，你认为这对于像SpaceX这样的公司来说也适用吗？是的，我认为这是独特的。首先，我们之前一直在观察这种超级流动市场中的交易情况。我们从未见过市值达到1.7万亿美元的公司，这让它跻身所有美国公司前十名。但我认为你会看到的趋势是，从IPO（首次公开募股）开始的兴奋，到后面逐渐评估其实际表现。所以，我认为这是一个历史周期是有道理的。那么，这个周期在SpaceX身上也会重演吗？实际上，很难说。我还认为，整体市场环境也很重要。听着，我不是专门分析这只股票的分析师，所以我们没有给出建议。但是我会思考，如果是大多数分析师的话，他们会进行部分估值分析，但要达到这个市值确实很难。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Keith, is that, you think this will hold true with the likes of a SpaceX? Yeah, I think it's unique in that, first of all, we've been, you know, seeing how it's been trading in this hyper liquid market beforehand. And, you know, we've never seen a valuation of a $1.7 trillion company, which puts it in the top 10 of all U.S. companies. But I do think that the trend that you see there is you go from excitement initially with an IPO to, you know, measuring the output. So, you know, it makes sense to me that that's been a historical cycle. Again, is that the same cycle this one will have? It's really, you know, hard to say. And I also think it matters about the overall market. And listen, I'm not an analyst that covers the stock per se, so we don't have a recommendation. But I would think about this, I mean, for most analysts out there, you do some of the parts valuation, it's tough to get there.
那么你在赌什么呢？你是在赌埃隆和他的未来愿景，这似乎更像是风险资本主义，要么成功，要么失败。不过，我认为狂热情绪是一种指引，但这次情况很独特，尤其是在它上市的方式以及长期处于私有状态。Keith，一个简单的问题，可能没有那么简单的答案。这个IPO引起了许多人的兴奋，但为什么市场在今天这样的日子没有更强势地开盘呢？有时候，这些事情可能会显得有点反高潮。我还想说一下，虽然我们昨天市场表现不错，但还是出现了一些这样的修正走势，特别是在科技领域，从高位回落了大约9%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what are you betting on? You're betting on Elon and his vision for the future, which is, you know, it seems like more like venture capitalism, that it's either going to work or it's not. But again, I think Hysteria is a guide, but this one is very unique in how it's coming to market and how long it's been private for. Keith, simple question, maybe not such a simple answer. A lot of excitement, of course, with this IPO. Why isn't the market come out stronger out of the gate on a day like this? You know, sometimes these things are somewhat anticlimactic. And I'd also just say, you know, market, even though we had a really nice day yesterday, you've had a bit of this kind of corrective move, especially in tech, you know, off the highs, it was down about 9% off the highs.
最近你可能看到OpenAI讨论可能会降低价格，这有点像是价格战。同时，这些公司在资本支出（CapEx）上花费了大量资金。因此，在科技行业短时间内增长47%后，人们对于期望值提高后的一些持续担忧依然存在。尽管油价下降，市场对可能接近战争结束的积极反应不错，但市场早已预期战争即将结束，这也是油价下降的原因。所以，我认为总体上市场常常呈现出一种"三步向前，两步后退"的节奏。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then you recently just saw OpenAI discussed maybe cutting prices, so a little bit of a pricing war. At the same time, a lot of these companies are spending a lot of money on CapEx. So, I think there's just some kind of lingering concerns after you had a 47% increase in tech in a short period of time where expectations have risen. And then also, even though oil prices are down and the market initially had a good, you know, positive reaction on potentially, you know, coming to the end of this war, the market has already believed that we were coming to the end of this war. That's why oil prices are there. So, I just think in general, markets are often three steps forward, I'm sorry, two steps forward, one step back.
我们确实向前迈进了三步，但也略微往后退了一小步。我认为我们现在会经历一个波动的时期。我觉得即使SpaceX上市本身也不足以改变这个整体趋势。此外，流入市场的资金量相对较小。以我在纳斯达克看到的为例，即便有资金流入，可能也不到1%。因此，仅靠这一点不足以撼动整个市场。Nancy，对于OpenAI或者Anthropic的IPO，你是否会像对SpaceX一样感到兴奋？要知道，Sam Altman和Dario Amadei（Anthropic的CEO）毕竟不是Elon Musk，不过他们确实是在为AI领域设定基调的具有远见的高管。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We've really gone three steps forward and a little bit of a little short step back in. I just think we're going to have a choppy period here in general. And I think the SpaceX IPO by itself is not enough to change that overall theme. And again, the flow coming to the market is somewhat small. What I've seen in the NASDAQ, even when it comes in, it will likely be less than 1%. So, it's not enough by itself to move this overall market. Nancy, would you be as excited as you are on SpaceX for an open AI IPO, Anthropic IPO? Now, look, Sam Altman, Dario Amadei, Dario, of course, the CEO of Anthropic, they're not Elon Musk. I mean, I'm trying to hint out here, but they are visionary executives setting the tone for all things AI.
或者这只是一个由埃隆·马斯克领导的时刻吗？嗯，我不这么认为。我的意思是，我确实认为SpaceX是唯一一个实现垂直整合的AI公司。他们拥有资金、数据、大型语言模型、硬件、制造能力和工程人才。但话虽如此，我觉得其他公司也很重要。与OpenAI相比，我们对Anthropic更感兴趣。不过，这只是现阶段的情况，明天可能会因为行业内的军备竞赛而发生改变。但不，我认为还有很多有趣的公司正处于观望阶段。再一次，配合我们的主题化投资组合，我们对这一切领域都非常感兴趣，顺带一提。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Or is this just an Elon Musk led moment? Well, no, I don't think it is. I mean, I do think SpaceX is really the only vertically integrated AI company. They have the capital, they've got the data, large language models, they got the hardware, the manufacturing and the engineering talent. But that said, I think you need these other companies. We would be more interested in Anthropic than we would be in OpenAI. But that's today, that could change tomorrow, you know, depending on the arms race in that business. But no, I think there's a lot of interesting companies that are sort of in the wings. And we, again, with our theme, Matic portfolio, we're really interested in all of these spaces, no pun intended.
因此，空间、机器人、量子和核能。这是我们正在寻找的机会。当其他公司上市时，我们也会寻找机会。我们仍然在等待SpaceX的首次交易。你正在观看时代广场外的电子广告牌。汤姆、基思和南希，非常感谢你们在这个重要的日子里提供的观点。非常感谢。好吧，我们接下来会有更多关于SpaceX首次公开募股的报道。我将在Market Catalyst中与朱莉·海曼一起参与。接下来就是。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, space, robotics, quantum and nuclear. So, we're looking for opportunities. And when these other companies come public, we'll be looking for an opportunity there. And we're still looking for that SpaceX first trade. You're watching the digital billboard out there in Times Square. Tom, Keith and Nancy, I appreciate the perspective on this very important day. Thanks so much. Thank you. All right, we have much more coverage on SpaceX's IPO straight ahead. I'll be joining Julie Hyman in Market Catalyst next. That was next.
在地球上或其他地方，正如我所说，这为全世界的人们提供了一种激励和灵感，让人们看到未来的希望与激动，感受到作为人类的自豪。非常感谢你们。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . on earth or somewhere, you know, and it provides, as I said, inspiration for people throughout the world to say, here's something you can look forward to that is exciting and inspiring. Something that makes you glad to be human. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
我们开放了市场，现在让我们准备开始交易。谢谢大家。欢迎来到市场催化剂节目，我是Julie Hyman。今天是SpaceX的大日子，我们正在等待SpaceX的交易开始。这是历史上最大的一次IPO，筹集了750亿美元，总估值达到1.77万亿美元。所以这次的规模非常大。和我在一起的有长期报道特斯拉和SpaceX的Subramanian教授，还有Brian Sazi。同时，Brooke De Palma在纳斯达克进行现场报道。我们团队的成员都在这里。我看到一些迹象表明开盘价可能会达到175美元，而股票定价为135美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We opened the markets, and now let's get ready to start trading. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. It is SpaceX Day. We're awaiting the start of trading for SpaceX. It is the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion for a total valuation of $1.77 trillion. So we're going big here. I'm here with Prof Subramanian who has been covering Tesla and SpaceX for a long time now. Brian Sazi with me as well. And Brooke De Palma is live at the NASDAQ. The gang's all here. And I'm seeing indications here that we could possibly, you know, we see indications until the thing opens. But right now it looks like that the indications for open at $175 after the stock priced at $135.
布鲁克，我先问你。在纳斯达克，这次的气氛与平常的IPO相比如何？我知道埃隆·马斯克通过远程方式从德克萨斯讲话，但现场有很多人。今天纳斯达克那边的情况怎么样？朱莉，一切都和典型的IPO大不相同。在纳斯达克外面，开市钟声还没响之前，当地警察局（NYPD）已经在开市钟背后的窗户周围设置了路障。因为有大量人群聚集，希望能看到埃隆·马斯克，他目前在SpaceX总部。也许他们能稍微偷看到一点。但你知道，人群被推到了后面。我们说的是成百上千的人，只是希望能瞥见一些即将成为百万富翁、亿万富翁的SpaceX高管，还有今天就要成为万亿富翁的埃隆·马斯克。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Brooke, I'm going to go to you first. What, how does the vibe compare at the NASDAQ compared to a normal IPO? And I know that Elon is, you know, sort of speaking remotely from Texas, but there are a lot of people there. What are things like there at the NASDAQ today? Things are completely different than a typical IPO, Julie. Outside the NASDAQ, ahead of the opening bell, NYPD, the local police department, put up barriers around the window behind where they do the opening bell. So that a large, large crowd that came together and hopes to see Elon Musk, who once again is at the SpaceX headquarters. Maybe they can get a little sneak peek. But, you know, the crowd was pushed back. I mean, we are talking hundreds of people gathering outside just to hopefully get a glance of some of the SpaceX executives who are going to become millionaires, billionaires and Elon Musk a trillionaire today.
照片拍了大约半小时。通常我只需要佩戴一个徽章即可入场。但今天，我还必须佩戴一个标明我是媒体成员的徽章。这里的气氛非常紧张。今天在纳斯达克的安保人员比平时多出了一倍、甚至两倍或三倍。不过，尽管如此，现场充满了兴奋，最后拍了许多照片，还有很多非常开心的SpaceX员工。当然，还有很多早期投资SpaceX的风险投资人也很开心，他们预计会有不错的收益，尽管他们的一些股份还被锁定着。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also, too, photos lasted for about a half hour. And also, too, typically I just walk in with just my one badge. But today I'm required to wear this badge as well that says that I am part of the press. This is a very heightened environment. There is double, if not triple, if not quadruple, the security guards around the NASDAQ today. And there is just lots of excitement, though, at the end of the day, lots of photos being taken and lots of very happy SpaceX employees. Yes, most definitely. And lots of happy, you know, sort of VC folks who got in early in SpaceX as well, who are going to be doing well, at least presumably, although they've got some lockups.
谢谢你，Brooke。各位，我们也做了这一行一段时间了，熟悉这个行业已经不是一天两天的事。这一次，确实感觉不仅仅是 SpaceX 的一个里程碑，更像是多年来公司在私营市场中停留更久、变得更大的一种结果。从不再仅仅是独角兽公司，到现在的十角兽公司，这种转变让市场进入了一个不同的时代，尤其是随着 SpaceX 的公开上市。这些公司和高管们不想让财报电话会议受到审视。不妨想想，与多年前埃隆·马斯克带着特斯拉在纳斯达克上市时相比，如今的环境已经有多大的变化。那时埃隆还在纳斯达克为特斯拉首次亮相，而今天，游戏规则已经完全不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Brooke, thank you. Guys, we've all been doing this for a minute or two. We've been covering this industry for a while. A hot minute. A hot minute. And it just it does feel like this is not just a milestone for SpaceX. It feels like sort of this culmination of years of companies staying private for longer, getting larger, you know, for longer in the private market. And, you know, not just being unicorns anymore, but like decacorns. And, you know, it just feels like a different era in the market at this point with SpaceX going public. I mean, these companies and these executives don't want the scrutiny. They don't want the scrutiny coming on earnings calls. They don't want – just think how the environment has changed compared to when Elon took Tesla public many years ago. Elon was at the NASDAQ for that debut. Different ballgame today.
他现在在SpaceX工作。他没有在纳斯达克和一群人一起支持上市，因为他们不想要成为上市公司后所带来的各种审查。所以，为什么不选择长期保持私营状态呢？私营市场在过去十年间发展了很多。现在，如果你可以在私营市场通过更高的估值来继续融资，那干嘛还要上市呢？是的，这确实是一个很好的观点。如果你两年前问我SpaceX是否会上市，我会说他们不需要。何必呢？他们是一家非常有前瞻性的企业，可能会有几年的亏损。如果可以不断从外部融资，为什么还要上市呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He's now at SpaceX. He's not at the NASDAQ supporting with all his crowded – with all the whole crowds of folks. But they just don't want that scrutiny that comes with being a public company. So why not stay private for longer? The private markets have come – have evolved a lot since over the past decade. And they are at a point now where if you can continue to raise rounds at higher valuations, why bother even coming public? Yeah, you know, that is a great point here. Because if you had asked me two years ago would SpaceX go public, I would say they don't need to. Why bother? They're running – you know, it's a very vision-forward enterprise that is probably going to have several years of losses. Why would they need to go public if you can keep raising outside?
没错。在这方面，这真是一家与众不同的公司。但我认为类似Starlink这样的项目已经扭转了局面，因为这项业务正在迅速增长并开始盈利。也许他们可以帮助证明这一点。Saaz可能会说，现在我们需要很多资金。对我来说，这就是关键的区别。所需的资本投入发生了变化，因为不仅仅是火箭，还包括建设数据中心、探索太空中的数据中心是否可行。这些都是字面意义和比喻意义上的“登月计划”，对吧？但同时，还需要为员工和早期投资者带来流动性。因为如果没有这些，那些SpaceX的员工知道会去哪里吗？就是像OpenAI、Anthropic这些热门的AI公司，可能会为他们带来更大的赞助商。还有Blue Origin。没错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's correct. It's just such an out there company in that regard. But I think things like Starlink have turned the tide in the sense that this business is growing tremendously, showing profits. Maybe they can help build the case. And then maybe now, Saaz, they're saying, you know, we need a lot of money. Right. That, to me, is the key difference. The capital intensity that is needed has changed because it's not just rockets. It's building out data centers. It's exploring whether data centers in space are possible. You know, it's those, like, literal and figurative moonshots, right? But it's also, you have to bring – the other component here, too, is bringing liquidity to the employees. Because without – And the early investors, yes. That's correct. Because without that, those SpaceX workers, you know where they're going? OpenAI, Anthropic, and all these other hot AI companies for potentially bigger patrons. Blue Origin. Blue Origin, yeah.
没错。尽管大多数我们交谈过的人都表示，SpaceX在这个领域是遥遥领先的，但由于这个原因，你仍然面临着员工之间的竞争。这在这里是有道理的。而且，就像我一整天都在说的那样，我们一直在乐此不疲地对人们进行调查，看看他们认为股票在第一天以及接下来的几个月里会如何表现。据说，这件事情引起了巨大的零售兴趣。有报道说，分配可能在20%到30%之间。不过，据报道，最终的分配似乎更接近于20%。然而，这个股票的超额认购是数倍，我们谈论过它的超额认购。特别是在零售方面，有报道提到，约有1000亿美元的股份被请求认购，而他们只出售750亿美元的股份。如果20%分配给零售，很多人会因为没有得到他们的分配份额而失望。他们错过了特斯拉的机会，这次他们不想再错过。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's right. Even though, you know, even though most people we talk to say SpaceX is sort of far and away, the leader in this space. You know, you still have competition for employees for that reason. That makes sense here. And, you know, we've been having fun, as I've been talking about all day, like, sort of surveying people on X where they think the stock is going to go, both on the first day and sort of over the next several months. And, you know, there is, reportedly, enormous retail interest in this thing. So, it was reported there could be a 20% to 30% allocation. It seems like, again, reportedly, the allocation is closer to 20%. But that it was many times – we talked about it being oversubscribed. In particular, on the part of retail, there were reports that $100 billion in shares had been requested. They're only selling $75 billion. And if 20% is going to retail, there are a lot of disappointed people out there who do not get their allocation. That missed out on the Tesla story. And they're not going to miss out again.
我认为这种观点，即这些零售商或散户投资者只是为了快速获利而进入市场，是不正确的。我们和许多这样的人交流过，他们实际上希望长期持有这家公司，大约10年。他们的目标是到退休时在银行里拥有1000万、1500万或2000万美元，因为他们相信埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）。过去很多年，他们没有机会这样做，那时都是内部人士和那些想涉足二级市场的人。现在他们终于有机会购买一两股，甚至三股。你能感受到他们的兴奋，就像我们在X.com上的感觉一样。是的，是的，是的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think this notion that, you know, these retailers or these retail investors are coming in for a quick flip, like, you talk to a lot of them like we do. Yeah, I don't. No, that's not the case. You know, they want to own this company for the next 10 years. And they are looking at retiring with $10, $15, $20 million in the bank account because they're betting on Elon. Yeah, and they didn't have a chance to do that before that for many years, right? It was all insiders and people who wanted to dabble in secondary markets. And now they finally have their chance to get, you know, one share, two shares, three. I don't know what you want to call it. There's the excitement there, kind of palpable. You can kind of feel it. Just like on our X.com. Yes, yes, yes.
当然，这里还有一点，你提到了稍微停顿一下的问题。假设这只股票以150美元、80美元开盘。不论是多少，就绝对金额而言，仍然比一些"MAG-7"公司的股票便宜。但这不是评估公司的正确方式。你知道的，不应该这样做。来吧，你知道更好的方法。人们会说：“布莱恩，我想买NVIDIA的股票，但是股价太高了，我觉得这样不划算。”那就买一部分股票吧。我的意思是，我们都知道这不是评估公司的方式，对吧？但我经常被问到这些问题。从心理上讲，这确实很有道理。我可以花1,000美元买10股，但我不想花1,000美元买1股。你懂我的意思吗？是的，是的，我明白你的意思。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the other thing here, too, is you mentioned a little bit of pause, too. This stock, let's say it opens at $150, $80. Whatever it is, it's still on a dollar amount cheaper than some of these MAG-7 stocks. And that's not how you're supposed to value companies. No, you are not. You're not supposed to do it. Come on, you know better. No, but people, they say, Brian, I want to buy shares in NVIDIA, but the stock price is too high and I make the value. So buy a fraction of the share. Well, that's what I'm saying. That's not how, we know that. Right, right, right. But these are the questions I get. Psychologically, it makes a huge amount of sense. Yes. I can buy 10 shares at $1,000, but I don't want to buy one share at $1,000. You know what I mean? Yes, yes. It does the same thing. But yes, I get your point.
翻译如下：
"我们要在这里说明一点，这并不是百分之百确定的事情。让我们说清楚一点，去火星并不是百分之百有把握的，对吧，Julie？没错。但很多人确实认为这是确定的。他们认为如果能以13.5万美元买到这些股份，他们就能靠这些钱退休，对吧？但如果他们是打算五年后退休，也许需要重新考虑一下。因为即使从长远来看这最终成功了，比如把数据中心建在太空中，这也不是短期内能实现的。这些都是非常长期的投资，可能永远不会实现。Proz可能在这方面比我了解更多。但最基本的一点是，未来十年中，推动SpaceX财务增长的最大因素将是可重复使用的火箭。"
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And like, the disclaimer here is, this ain't a sure thing. Let's be clear here. What, going to Mars is not a sure thing, Julie? Yes, it is. But many people do think it's a sure thing. To your point, they think if they get these shares at $135,000, they're going to retire on that money. Right? Now, if they're retiring five years from now, maybe they need to think again. Because even if it does work ultimately over the long term, his data centers, even if it works to put a data center in space, it's not happening in the short term. No. These are very long term bets that might never come to fruition. And Proz could talk about this more than I can. But the bottom line is, the single biggest thing that is going to feed the financial statements of SpaceX over the next decade is reusable rockets.
为了实现他们在招股说明书中提出的终极财务成功，他们需要能够把这些火箭发射到天空，在几个小时后将其带回来，加油，然后尝试在空中为它们加油，并再次发射。但他们还没有做到这一点。需要特别说明的是，他们还没有在负载条件下实现这一点。他们需要“星舰”项目成功运作。马斯克谈到在五年内，我们可以每年运送一百万吨货物上去。经过一些简单的计算，这在当时是可行的。好的，明白。Ed Ludlow Bloomer实际上进行了数学推导。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In order for them to have the ultimate financial success that they're pitching here on the prospectus, they need to be able to send these rockets up in the sky, bring them back in a couple of hours, refuel them, and then all try to refuel them on air, too, and use them, launch these things. And they're not doing that yet. And they're not doing that yet. To be clear, they're especially not doing it yet with the payload, with the weight. They need Starship to work out. That they need to take. Yeah, I mean, just sort of some back of the hand math show. Yeah. Musk was talking about in five years, we're going to have a million tons. It's doable to have a million tons of cargo going up at that point, right? Like annually or? Well, yeah, annually. Okay. So in five years. Gotcha. And Ed Ludlow Bloomer did actually look at the math.
基本上，这意味着你需要让所有这些星舰都在运行。他们甚至还没有成功地发射过一次，对吧？但如果从五年的角度来看，这基本上意味着每周需要发射25次星舰，大约每天三次。全年每天如此。而他们甚至还没有成功发射过一次。要实现每年一百万吨的运载能力，这是一个巨大的挑战。你还要考虑到可重复使用火箭的问题，这些火箭可以重复使用大约十次，并不是永久可用的。它们需要翻新，而且有其使用寿命的终点。因此，要想发射一百万吨的货物来建造一个数据星座，这将是一个很大的要求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And basically what that means is you need to have all these Starships going. They haven't even successfully launched that properly, right? But essentially what it means, if you look at it over five years, it requires 25 launches a week, right, of Starship, which is like three a day or something like that. Every day for a year. And they haven't even gotten there yet with one. To get to a million tons a year. So that's a massive undertaking. And you talk about reusable rockets. You know, these rockets are reusable for like 10 times. Like they're not like forever reusable. They have to be refurbished and they're end of life. So it's a big ask to send up a million tons of cargo, which that would be required to build a constellation of data, a data constellation.
好的。所以还有很长的路要走。但同样的，未来正在发生，对吧？我不太喜欢用这个词，但是我们确实看到了一些进展。电池和发射技术等方面可能会有指数级的突破。另一个值得注意的方面是，我们看到埃隆·马斯克在纳斯达克或他在德克萨斯的总部，他今天花了很多时间在SpaceX的上市上，与员工、纳斯达克的人交流等，这些时间自然就无法用在特斯拉上。我并不是说他不关心特斯拉，但这是另外一个需要考虑的点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So there's a long way to go. But again, it's the future is happening now, right? I hate to use that term, but it's sort of, you know, we're seeing that happen. And it could be exponential sort of breakthroughs in batteries and launch technology, et cetera. And the other aspect here, too, is, you know, we saw Elon there at the NASDAQ or home base for him in Texas. And the amount of time he's spending today on the SpaceX IPO, talking to employees, NASDAQ people, whatever it is, that's time he's not spending at Tesla. I'm not saying he's not thinking about Tesla. But that's the other point here.
他是SpaceX的首席执行官、首席技术官和董事长，同时还是特斯拉的首席执行官。他拥有Neuralink和The Boring Company。他已经决定要买下特斯拉。如果埃隆·马斯克突然去世，这个复杂的网络会发生什么变化呢？他的所有权和一切相关事务都会受到影响。此外，别忘了他在社交平台X上花费了大量时间回复别人，实际上是在亲自打字。金博尔·马斯克不会来接管SpaceX。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He's the CEO, CTO, and chairman of SpaceX. And he's also the CEO of Tesla. He's got Neuralink. He's got the boring company. He's done because he's going to buy Tesla. He's a, he's a, there's, there's, there's, there's, keep me on risk here. If Elon today drops dead, like what happens to this web of networks? Right, right. And then ownership and everything. And then also, don't forget the amount of time he spends on, on X, replying to people. Yeah. Like actually typing. Yeah. Kimball's not going to come in here and run. Kimball Musk is not coming here to run SpaceX.
好的。我是说，Kimball，也许他能经营一家餐馆，但他不在这里，他没有运营SpaceX。好的，大家稍等一下，因为我们想介绍一位早期投资者，也就是我们一直提到的那种人。他在SpaceX上市前就已经拥有股份了。这位是Justice Parmer。他是Fortuna Investments的首席执行官，这是一家在SpaceX有投资的风投公司。Justice，我想您今天一定很高兴，不过，您对整个过程怎么看？他们定价在135美元就这么定了，您有什么看法？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I mean, Kimball, I mean, he can maybe run a restaurant, but he's not here. He's not running SpaceX. Okay. Um, guys, hang on for just a minute, because we want to bring in, um, one of those early investors that we've been talking about. Somebody who already owns a SpaceX even before the IPO. That is Justice Parmer. He is CEO of Fortuna Investments. It's a venture capital firm invested in SpaceX. Uh, Justice. Um, so, uh, I imagine you're pretty happy today, but, um, you know, what do you make of this whole process? The idea that they set it at one 35 and that was it.
嗯，你对今天和接下来几周的股市有什么期待呢？当然，能再次见到你很高兴。我的意思是，有几个因素对股市产生影响。其中最大的变化因素是埃隆的零售支持者团队。总的说来，他们显然在股票交易中被排挤在外，确实没有太多参与的方式。我希望或相信，他们中有一部分人今天能够通过Robinhood、E*TRADE等平台参与进来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and what are you expecting from the stock today and in the coming weeks? Sure. Uh, great to see you again. Um, I mean, a couple of things, right? There's a lot of things at play here. Right. And so the big X factor is, is Elon's, uh, you know, army of, uh, retail supporters. Right. And so largely speaking, they've been obviously boxed out of the, out of the stock, right? There's, there's really been no way to play it. My hope or my belief is I'm, I'm hoping that a chunk of them were able to, uh, you know, participate today via Robin hood, via E trade, you know, a lot of those sorts of platforms.
嗯，我可以证明，这个产品通过所有渠道都超额认购了。所以我觉得今天无论是谁想要得到什么，最终可能都减少了很多，包括我们自己也是。因此，这确实是一个非常有趣的情况。我要强调的是，我不希望看到这样的情况：就是这个东西直接飙升到一个非常高的估值，比如三四五万亿美元之类的，然后再进行价格发现。这里有许多微妙的因素，比如长期的考虑，还有对于早期股东的锁定期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I can attest to the offering was very, very oversubscribed through all channels. So I think whatever anybody was trying to get today was, you know, significantly reduced even ourselves included. And so, you know, it's, it's a really interesting setup, right? So what I, what I don't want to see is let's start with that. I don't want to see this thing just totally skyrocket to some, you know, crazy valuation of three, four, $5 trillion or something very heavy. And then it's got to really do the price discovery, right? And you've got all the different nuanced things. You've got a long-term, you know, you've got lockup for earlier shareholders.
您有纳斯达克的纳入，还有潜在的其他ETF。所以，再次强调，这里有很多的动态因素，但我希望能看到某种正常的价格发现和稳定性。希望它能在这个基础上向前发展。Justice，你们在IPO时有请求更多的股份吗？我们确实请求了更多股份。你们得到了吗？是的，我得到了其中的一部分。我们与几个银行合作，因为有很多银行在参与，所以采取了不同的方式。不管怎样，我们确实获得了一部分分配。就像他们常说的，你永远得不到你想要的那么多。所以情况大概就是这样。但不管怎样，我们非常满意。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You've got the inclusion of the NASDAQ and then potential other ETFs. So again, there's a hundred different kind of moving parts, but what I would love to see is some sort of normal price discovery and stability. And hopefully it can work off of that base moving forward. Justice, did you guys request more shares on the IPO? We did request more shares on the IPO. Did you get them? That's right. I got a portion of them. You know, we deal with a couple of the banks who were kind of, you know, going a couple of different avenues, given that there was a lot of, a lot of banks on the file. But yeah, so we did get an allocation. It wasn't, you know, you know how they say, right? You never get enough of what you want. So that was kind of the situation. But regardless, we're extremely happy.
正义先生，当您查看我们公司的商业模式时，我想，我不能替所有人说话。但我对我们在招股说明书中了解到的AI业务规模感到有些意外，以及有多少东西依赖于这个业务。那么，您怎么看待不同的业务呢？您认为最大的发展机遇在哪里？而这些业务中最大的风险又在哪里？
这是一个很好的问题，这个情况显然是很独特的，因为在过去六个月中，实际上有三家公司合并了。说到AI业务，我听到过两种不同的观点。我觉得AI业务有时被低估了。我之所以这么说，是因为有很多比较，比如OpenAI和Anthropic。要知道，OpenAI已经成立十多年了，而Anthropic大约五年。Elon才刚刚起步。因此，他实际上还没有足够的时间和充裕的资金来推动AI业务的全面发展，所以目前进行直接比较可能有些不公平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Justice, what do you, you know, as you look at the business model, which I think, I mean, I can't speak for everyone. I was somewhat surprised at the size of the AI business and how much is riding on that business that we learned about in the S1. So as you look at the various businesses, you know, where do you think the biggest opportunity lies? And where is the biggest risk in those businesses? That's a great question. And it's obviously quite unique, given that three companies have essentially merged the last, you know, six months or so. And so a couple of things, right? So the AI business, I hear it both ways. I see it both ways. You know, he gets, you know, I would say he sometimes gets short-changed on the AI business. And the only reason I say that is, you know, there's a lot of comparisons thrown around with, you know, OpenAI, Anthropic. You know, keep in mind, OpenAI has been around for over a decade, right? Anthropic, five years, right? Elon's just getting out of the gate. So there is a certain element of he hasn't had enough time and real velocity of capital to really get the thing off the ground to make a more direct comparison.
好的，但如果直接比较的话，那就要拿Grok与那些进行对比了。当然。这也已经存在很长时间了，我是说，作为一个面向公众的语言模型，从时间上看，它与那些差不多，是吧？嗯，我的意思是，Grok存在的时间更长，但一直没有真正的动力去把它打造成类似于其他公司那样的独立AI平台，对吧？他直到18个月前才开始接受资本投入。我的日历不在手边，也许是24个月前，但肯定不是十年前。所以我的意思是，我认为你必须给他和那个业务领域足够的时间，才能真正看到他们能做些什么。考虑到Elon及其多个业务的过往记录，这家伙几乎一直是百战百胜。也许这次不是最成功的一次，但从概率上讲，Elon的胜算无疑是很大的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, but the direct comparison would be with Grok specifically to those. Sure. And it's been around as long, I mean, as an LLM available to the public, it's been around about the same amount of time, hasn't it? Yeah. I mean, the Grok has been around longer, but there wasn't a real impetus to we're going to make this a sole standalone AI platform similar to those, you know, other companies, right? He never took, you know, he never took capital on up until maybe 18 months ago. My calendar's not in front of me. Maybe it was 24 months ago, but it wasn't a decade ago, right? So I'm just, I guess what I'm trying to say is I think you're gonna have to give him and that segment of the business long enough time to really kind of see what they can do. And given the track record of Elon and his multiple businesses, this guy's pretty much, you know, batting a thousand percent. Maybe this isn't the one that hits, but you know, the odds are definitely in Elon's favor.
我们做了一件有趣的事，走上纽约市的街头，与人们交谈，问他们一些关于SpaceX的问题，并请他们提问关于首次公开募股（IPO）的疑问。我想播给你听其中一个问题，Justice，看看你会如何回答。请留意听。问题是，现在有没有真正的竞争对手出现，因为目前基本上没有什么真正的竞争者。比如，贝佐斯的公司怎么样？它真的发展得好吗？他们刚刚才损失了一枚火箭。所以我好奇他们的表现如何。我希望市场上能有更多的竞争，甚至再出现一个类似Starlink的公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We did something fun where we went out and talked to people on the streets of New York City, asked them some questions about SpaceX and also asked them what questions they had about the IPO. So I want to play one of them for you, Justice, and see what your answer to this question would be. So listen up. I mean, are any real competitors going to come out because they currently have basically no real ones. I mean, what is it, Bezos' company? Is it even doing that well? They just lost the rocket. So I'm wondering how they're doing in comparison. I would love for there to be some more competition in the market. Even another Starlink.
好的。所以，正义，我的意思是，很明显这里不是在谈论人工智能业务，而是在谈论火箭业务。但是，你知道，你如何看待SpaceX与Blue Origin或其他一些竞争对手之间的比较呢？当然。另外，我在当前环境中不是很喜欢的一件事是，你们知道，Brian和Press，你们之前也提到了这一点，很多公司，包括Blue Origin，大约95%到99%的普通投资者是无法参与其中的，因为有某种障碍将他们挡在了门外。很遗憾，散户被排除在外。所以，我只是想从这里开始讨论一下。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So, Justice, I mean, obviously that's not talking about the AI business. It's talking about the rocket business. But like, you know, how do you think about SpaceX versus a Blue Origin or some of the other competitors out there? Sure. And I mean, the other thing is, what I don't necessarily love in this current environment, you guys, you know, Brian and Press, and you guys kind of hit on it earlier, is a lot of these companies, the Blue Origins included, there's no way for 95 to 99 percent of the investing public to play it because they just, there's a velvet rope there and the other on one side or another. And unfortunately, retail gets boxed out. So I just want to kind of start with that.
翻译如下：
具体来说，关于航天产业，我更偏向于传统航天领域，而不是比如说人工智能领域。Julie，我不确定你是否还记得，但几年前我上过你的Yahoo节目。那一期节目在讨论是该买入还是该告别。是的，我记得。两年前，我主要推荐的股票是Rocket Labs，当时股价在4到5美元左右。今天这只股票的价值已经涨到了120到130美元。所以我一直非常喜欢Rocket Labs，现在也是Rocket Labs的股东。目前而言，除了Rocket Labs，几乎没有很多专注于航天的公司可供投资。虽然有一些其他公司，但目前市场很狭小。作为投资者，我希望在航天、航空航天甚至国防产业领域会出现更多公司进入市场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And specifically as it pertains to the space industry, and I'm more atypical space than, let's say, AI. And Julie, I'm not sure if you remember, but it was a couple of years ago, I was on your show on Yahoo here. It was a good buy or good buy, like see you later. Yes, yes, I do. Yeah. My number one recommendation two years ago at the lean price of $4 or $5 a share was Rocket Labs. Today that stock is, you know, $120, $130. And so I loved, and I still love Rocket Labs, shareholder of Rocket Labs. And so there's not that many pure space ways to play the industry with the exception of Rocket Labs. You've got, you know, a few other companies, but it's a very shallow market at the point. My hope as an investor is that there's an emergence of more names that actually hit the market in the space and aerospace and kind of even defense industries.
所以，这就是我对未来的希望。而且无论这有多大影响，我希望它们不会都被抬高到1万亿、2万亿、3万亿、4万亿、5万亿美元。我希望能有更多机会回到像亚马逊上市时那种4亿美元的复兴时期。我稍微停一下，4亿美元，这实际上就是一只仙股，对吧？所以我希望有些公司能更早一些上市，而不是等到它们完全成熟后才上市，让CEO们为盈利担惊受怕。我希望未来能有更多更深层次的上市公司发展方式，如果有可能的话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so that's my hope for the future. And I hope for whatever it's worth, they don't all get floated at $1, 2, 3, 4, 5 trillion dollars. I'm hoping that there is a little bit more of an avenue back to the Renaissance days of, you know, Amazon going out at $400 million. I'm going to stop for a second, but $400 million, I mean, that's effectively a penny stock, right? And so I'm hoping that some of these companies do come out a little bit earlier and they don't become fully matured and the CEOs are scared of earnings and things like that. But I would love a little bit more deeper, more public company way of the future, if at all possible.
顺便提一下，很多这些太空股票，尤其是那些公开交易的，今天实际上正在回调。最近我们在这个领域看到很多热情。但是你知道的，你可以看到这些股票的一些下跌，挺有意思的。Justice，我想给你播放另一个问题，这是我们在纽约街头采访时被问得最多的问题之一。那么下一个问题来了。我想知道一些时间线。我这一生能看到火星殖民吗？制造一艘能够安全前往其他星球的宇宙飞船需要多长时间？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And a lot of these space stocks, by the way, the publicly traded ones are actually pulling back today. We've seen a lot of enthusiasm in that space recently. But, you know, you can see here some of the declines that we're seeing in these stocks, which is interesting. Justice, I want to play for you the other question that was probably the most asked question that we got when we were talking to people on the street of New York City. So here's another one coming your way. I'd love to know some timelines. Am I going to see this Mars colonization in my lifetime? How long does it take to make a spaceship that safely goes to other planets?
我的意思是，我会问他们，他关于不久后就能登陆火星的预测有多可行。我觉得这个想法真的很有雄心。我确实认为这是下一步。但我真的很好奇，这真的可能实现吗？他给出的时间表很紧，我不确定这是否真的会发生。所以，Justice，你怎么看？在我们这一生中，登陆火星真的会实现吗？所以我想这样分解一下你的问题。我喜欢你这样提出问题，是说可能还是不可能。我很不愿意给出一个具体的时间表，我更倾向于关注我们能否做到这件事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, I would ask them just how feasible his predictions are of going to Mars soon. I mean, I think it's really ambitious. I do think that's the next step. But I'm really curious, like, is that really possible? I mean, he's given some tight deadlines. I don't know if it's actually going to happen. So, Justice, what do you think? Is the Mars thing actually happening in our lifetimes? So I'll break it down this way. I mean, I'll double clip on it this way. So I like the way you frame that question is, is it possible or not? I'm very reluctant to give a timeline. I would more focus on, like, can we even do this thing?
所以，那些评论中可能遗漏的一步是，火星实际是第二步或第三步。第一步实际上是月球。因此，大家的目光都会聚焦在月球上。大量资金将用于月球。因此，我们要搞定月球，要在这方面做得很好。他希望在月球上进行制造以及各种各样的事情，发展月球经济。所以我认为这才是我们能否顺利进行并评估整体情况的更佳指标。显然，如果他做得很好，可能会比我们预期的要花更长时间。但如果月球上建立了一个殖民地，开展了制造活动，那么实现去火星的下一步就是可能的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so the one step that was, I guess, maybe forgotten in some of that commentary is, Mars is essentially step two or three. The first actual step is the Moon. So all eyes are going to be on the Moon. A lot of this funding is going to go towards the Moon. And so let's nail the Moon. Let's do a good job of the Moon. He wants to get, you know, manufacturing and all sorts of things into the Moon and the lunar economy. So I think that's the better barometer of how we'll be able to play that and assess things. And so, look, obviously, if he does a great job, maybe it takes longer than we expect. But if there is a colony on the Moon, there's manufacturing on the Moon, I think then that next step of Mars is possible.
如果逼我说，我毫不怀疑在我有生之年会看到人类在火星上的活动。我今年43岁，我认为这将会是令人难以置信的。虽然具体会是什么样子我并不清楚，但那就是目标。这也是为什么埃隆建立这些巨型公司来资助他到达火星的计划，推动人类文明迁移到火星上。Justice，很高兴见到你。我是Brian，有个问题想问你。看看，我们都是普通人。如果埃隆出现意外，比如踩到香蕉皮，那谁会接管SpaceX？你认为有多少因为马斯克的影响而产生的溢价已经体现在SpaceX的价格中了？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you put a gun to my head, I unequivocally think that within my lifetime, I'm 43 years old, I think there will be activities on Mars in my lifetime, which will be incredible. What that looks like, I don't exactly know, but that is the goal. And that is why Elon's building these mega companies to fund his endeavor to get to Mars, to move civilization to Mars. Justice, good to see you. It's Brian here. Question for you. Look, we're all human. If Elon slips on a banana peel, something happens to him. Who runs SpaceX? And how much in your estimation, how much Musk's premium is priced in here at SpaceX?
是的，那是个很好的问题，布莱恩。很高兴见到你。我是说，就是这样。大家总是担心公司的一些事情，通常是关于估值、数字、股票价格这些相关的因素。真正的问题其实是关于关键人物保险。无论出于什么原因，他不能继续管理公司，这家公司就会完全不一样。即便如此，他在所有业务上构建了非常强大的壁垒。我觉得这可以和史蒂夫·乔布斯类似，当富有远见的创始人不再在那里时的情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, and that's a brilliant question, Brian. Great to see you. I mean, and that's just it. Everyone, you know, worries about certain things about the company. Usually it's about valuation and numbers and stock price and, you know, all that sort of collateral. The real problem is the key man insurance, right? For whatever reason, he's not able to run that company anymore. That's a totally different company. That said, he's got such a moat around all of his businesses. You know, I would like it, you know, I'd make it akin to maybe a Steve Jobs or something like that, where the visionary founder is no longer there.
但这家公司规模如此庞大、实力如此雄厚，仍能继续前进。不过，那种强硬的创新精神和创始人的独特风格可能不再存在。然而，它依然会是全球最有价值的公司之一，就像特斯拉等等，因为它们在各方面都领先很多。但公司的初衷、创新的起源可能不再存在。这只是一个有趣的想法，仅供参考。从SpaceX的角度来看，Gwen是一位出色的总裁。她在公司工作已经超过20年。虽然我不想说她就是整个业务，但她确实是公司不可或缺的一部分。她每天都在实际运作中掌舵。因此，我认为公司有她掌管是很好的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But the company is so big, so robust, it's able to move on. But maybe that hard line of innovation and true founder feel of the company wouldn't be there anymore. Still going to be one of the most valuable companies in the world, as is Tesla, et cetera, because they're so far ahead of everything. But the genesis of the company, of the innovation will probably no longer be there. So that's just an interesting kind of side thought for whatever it's worth. From the SpaceX perspective, Gwen is a tremendous president. She's been there for over 20 years. She, you know, I don't want to say she is the business, but she's a very, very integral, not figurehead aspect of the business. She's day to day. She's running the show. And so I think the company's in great hands.
正义，今天早上能和你聊聊真是太好了。显然，这是激动人心的一天，非常感谢你。很高兴见到你。谢谢你，Julie。我们正在等待SpaceX股票的开盘。我们看到的最新指示价格大约是175，但开盘可能即将到来。我们显然会非常密切地关注它。我们马上回来。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Justice, awesome to get some time with you this morning. Obviously, it's an exciting day. Thank you so much. Great to see you. Thanks, Julie. So we are waiting for SpaceX shares to open. The latest indication that we saw was around 175, but we could have an opening be imminent. We are going to obviously be watching it very, very closely. We'll be right back. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
让我们回到纳斯达克，听听我们的高级记者布鲁克·德帕尔马的现场更新，因为我们正在等待SpaceX开始交易。布鲁克，我们一直在讨论这个IPO不寻常的一个主题，就是面向散户投资者的股票分配。据报道，这次将有20%到30%的股份分配给散户。我们也知道请求购买这些股票的人数超过了可满足的数量，对吧？
没错，朱莉。据说这次确实有30%的股份分配给散户投资者。也就是说，普通投资者可以通过Robinhood、E-Trade或Fidelity等平台来购买这家公司的股份。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's go back to the NASDAQ now for a live update from our senior reporter, Brooke DePalma, as we wait for SpaceX to start trading. Brooke, one of the themes that we've been talking about that's unusual about this IPO, among many, is the allocation for retail investors, that reportedly there was going to be 20% to 30% going to retail. And we know a lot of people asked for those shares, more than they could satisfy, right? That's correct, Julie. I mean, this was unique in the fact that, reportedly, there was 30% of retail investor allocation. So, AKA, everyday investors can head to Robinhood or E-Trade or so on, Fidelity, to, you know, seek out a stake, a share within this company.
因为我听到的需求，不仅是从报告中了解到的，也包括我自己从消息源获得的信息，显示需求量很大，所以现在零售分配略有下降，大约是20%。请记住，通常首次公开募股（IPO）的零售分配仅占5%到10%左右。因此，起初的30%已经相当高了。现在预计会在20%左右。不过，过去几天我们看到Vanda Research的抛售，这份今早的报告在很大程度上表示，这可能是散户投资者在把握这个历史性的IPO机会之前退出他们的仓位，Julie。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But because of the demand that I'm hearing, not just from reported, but also from sources myself, that there just has been such a volume of demand that that now retail allocation is coming in slightly lower, more towards 20%. Keep in mind, typically, IPOs only have about 5% to 10% of retail allocation. And so that 30% to begin with was quite high. Now we're seeing it's expected to be around 20%. But over the past few days, we've been seeing this sell-off in Vanda research coming out of the note this morning, largely saying that that potentially could be retail investors moving out of their positions in order to get in on this historic IPO, Julie.
这次首次公开募股（IPO）还有一个不同寻常的地方，就是金融行业中那些势不可挡的大公司推出与之相关的新产品的速度非常快。比如，今天就要开始交易的单一股票ETF，以及杠杆单一股票ETF。此外，正如我们之前提到的，这些股票很快会被纳入由纳斯达克和罗素等指数编制公司跟踪的各种指数。因此，所有这些都可能在股票开始交易后的日子里增加潜在的市场波动、买盘压力和卖盘压力等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And one of the other unusual things about the IPO is how quickly the sort of juggernaut of the financial industry is introducing new products linked to it, right? So you have already single stock ETFs that are supposed to start trading today, leveraged single stock ETFs that are supposed to start trading today. It'll go into, as we've been talking about, various indices that are tracked by NASDAQ and Russell indexes where it's going to be added soon. So all of this could add to potential volatility, buying pressure, selling pressure, what have you, in the days after it starts trading.
好的，你也需要记住，因为这次IPO是首批或可能是首个快速进入那些主要指数的事件之一，这可能会对关联NASDAQ 100或S&P 500的退休账户产生影响。因此，如果未来几天因为SpaceX而出现波动，美国人可能会在他们的退休账户中看到这种反映。我们会关注这一点，不要被即将到来的波动吓到。但是，过去几天我交谈的很多消息人士中，目前我们知道的是，账本正在建立，买卖双方正在进行大量谈判，以确定IPO首发价，这个价格似乎很快就会公布，可能就在几个小时内。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. And also, too, you have to keep in mind that because this IPO is one of the first or if not the first to get fast-tracked into those major indices, this could also have implications for any retirement accounts that are tied to the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P 500. So if you do see volatility because of SpaceX in the coming days, Americans could look at their retirement account and also see that reflected within it. We'll look at that and don't get too spooked with the volatility to come. But so many of my sources that I have spoke with over the past few days, largely what we know right now in this moment is that that book is being billed, that there is buying and selling and lots of, you know, negotiating happening on the second floor here at the NASDAQ in order to get to that IPO debut price, which seems like could be coming in the matter of moments or hours.
由于需求量很高，Julie，这次IPO可能会需要更长的时间才能进行首次交易。但与此同时，显然大家都很期待这家公司上市并开始交易。提醒一下，最新的报价大概在174到175之间。我们拭目以待最终会是多少。不过正如你所说，市场做市商正在协商，弄清楚买卖双方的数量以及他们愿意买卖的价格，然后决定股票的开盘价。我也很好奇，Brooke，不仅是今天的开盘价，还有今天的收盘价，以及当天的走势会如何发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it seems like over time, because of the high demand, Julie, that this IPO has, it could take longer to make that official first trade. But at the same time, it seems like the excitement is there to get this company out there and begin trading. Right. And just a reminder, the last indication that was reported on was for around 174, 175. So we'll see where that ends up going here. But to your point, you know, you have the market makers kind of negotiating, figuring out how many buyers and sellers you have on both sides, at what price they are willing to buy and sell and then where that stock is going to open as a result. I'm really curious also, Brooke, not just where it's going to open today, but where it's going to close today, what the trajectory of the day is going to look like.
好的。请注意，这是一个在文件中一开始就设定为在135美元开盘的公司，通常你会有一个范围，然后在前一晚会有一个指示价。然而，现在指示价为175美元，这比135美元的IPO价格高出了大约29%的溢价。似乎他们会等到确定合适的价格后才开盘。当然，纳斯达克在这方面经验丰富，仅今年就已经完成了38次IPO。但需要理解这次IPO的重要性，他们计划筹集750亿美元。而在今年至今上市的38家企业中，总共筹集了230亿美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. And keep in mind that this was a company that, you know, typically you have that range and then you have the indication the night before. But from the get go within the filing, this company was set to debut or, you know, indicated to open at 135. And so now with this 175 indication, that would be about a 29 percent premium to that 135 IPO price. And it seems like they're not necessarily going to open until they have it exactly right. Of course, the Nasdaq does this hundreds of times. In fact, just this year, there already have been 38 IPOs. But just understand the gravity of this particular IPO. They're looking to raise seventy five billion dollars. And of those 38 IPOs, Julie, that have come to market so far this year, they all together have raised twenty three billion dollars.
这与我们之前见过的其他IPO有很大不同，朱莉。这次的估值达到了一点八万亿美元。在纳斯达克，这真是令人惊叹的一天。你可以看出，不仅是SpaceX团队，连纳斯达克团队也充满了兴奋。像其他IPO一样，这个项目有数十甚至上百人参与，但我认为他们确实对这次IPO给予了特别关注。是的，他们还在为即将到来的OpenAI和Anthropic的IPO做好准备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so this a much different story, Julie, than maybe other IPOs we've seen come to market. This valuation reaching one point eight trillion. And I mean, it's truly a remarkable day here at the Nasdaq. And you could tell that there's such an excitement from not only the SpaceX team, but also the Nasdaq team. There are dozens, hundreds of people working on this particular IPO, as there is with others. But this one, I really think that they're putting, of course, a very close look to. Yeah, I mean, and they're still going to be battling it out for the open AI and anthropic IPOs that are coming at some point as well.
Brooke，非常感谢你。我们当然会继续关注。接下来，我们将深入探讨SpaceX如何应对太空中的AI计算资源短缺问题。我们还会谈论接下来的能源问题。我们会持续关注。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Brooke, thank you so much. We'll be checking back in, of course. Coming up next, we're going to dig into SpaceX's plans to tackle the AI compute crunch in space. We're going to talk about the power equation next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们稍后会再回来查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们下次会再回来检查。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。我们稍后会再回来查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们下次会再回来查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们会在下次回来看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们稍后会再来查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们会在接下来查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。我们接下来会再回来查看。
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We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
我们将在接下来的一段时间再回来查看。
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We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next. We'll be checking back in next.
SpaceX的一个最大目标之一是在太空中建设AI数据中心。在其S1文件中，埃隆·马斯克的公司阐述了在AI计算市场中竞争的计划，并指出可以提供持续的太阳能，以及绕过地球能源限制的途径。今天与我们一起探讨这个话题的是詹姆斯·韦斯特，他是Milius研究公司的能源与动力研究部门负责人，也是地球能源限制方面的专家。詹姆斯，能在这个SpaceX的特别日子看到你，真高兴。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One of SpaceX's biggest ambitions is to bring the AI data center build out to space. In its S1 filing, Elon Musk's company laid out plans to compete in the AI compute market and noted it can offer continuous solar power and a path around Earth-bound energy constraints. Joining us for more is James West, an expert in Earth-bound energy constraints, Milius Research Head of Energy and Power Research. James, it's good to see you on this SpaceX day.
你也一样，Joy。你知道，我确实想谈谈地球上的能源问题，但让我们先从地球之外的能源开始。好的。听着，我们知道这件事还没有发生。我们不知道它什么时候会发生，也不知道它是否会发生。但地球上的能源不够吗？我意思是，我们知道有一些限制，但把卫星或数据中心送到太空是解决办法吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You too, Joy. You know, I do want to talk about power on Earth, but let's begin with power above Earth. Sure. Listen, we know that this is not happening yet. We don't know when it's happening. We don't know if it's happening. But is there not enough power on Earth? I mean, we know there are constraints, but like is the answer to send satellites into space, data centers into space?
我认为随着时间的推移，太空无疑会成为一个权力市场。在太空中，可以随时随地利用太阳能。我们已经将其用于太空计划和卫星计划。这是一种已知的资源和实体。地球上我们可能只用了不到1%的太阳能，所以在太空中我们可以利用更多。然而，你知道，在地球上，数据中心和人工智能面临的最大限制其实是能源。我认为这种限制非常严重。每个大型科技公司都会告诉你，他们目前面临的最大限制就是能源。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think over time, certainly, space becomes a market for power. You do have 24/7 solar power in space. We use that already for the space programs, for the satellite programs. And so it's a known quantity and a known entity. And we only use probably less than 1% of the sun's solar power on Earth. And so we could use a lot more when we're in space. But really the biggest constraint, as you know, to data centers and AI on Earth is power. It is. I mean, you know, but at the same time, like I guess how serious and severe do you think the constraints are terrestrially right now? So I think the constraints are very serious. I think every single hyperscaler will tell you that their biggest number one constraint today is power.
因此，速度和功率的问题。获取电力的能力也是个问题。因为地球上电力缺乏，AI模型的发展受到了阻碍。我们的电网，尤其是在美国，被认为是现代经济的奇迹。但这个电网是为缓慢而渐进的电力增长而设计的，而不是为我们现在看到的电力激增准备的。因此，您怎么看待这些问题被解决的程度？这些问题被多紧迫地解决？ 在您看来，目前，私人市场正在绕过传统的垄断性公用事业公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so the speed to power is an issue. The ability to get power is an issue. AI models are being held up by the lack of power on Earth. We have a grid that was built, particularly in the US, which is a miracle of the modern economy. But the grid was built for slow, incremental additions of power, not this surge in power that we're seeing right now. And so in your view, you know, how adequately is it being addressed? How urgently is it being addressed? You know, is it. So what you're seeing right now is the private market is going around kind of the traditional monopoly utilities.
独立发电商和像KKR这样的公司正在推动新的发展。你可能看到他们昨天宣布成立了一家新公司，名为Helix，该公司将提供数据中心和电力服务。他们计划在数据中心旁边设置电力供应，包括天然气发电、太阳能和储能发电等任何可行的方式。小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）也将成为其中的一部分，这与Vistra Energy有关。因此，这方面会有私营市场的推动。我认为还应该在受监管的公用事业公司内部推动进一步的去监管。这一趋势始于20世纪70年代，在90年代和2000年代初得到了鼓励，最终导致了独立发电商的兴起。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the independent power producers and other entities like KKR. You saw an announcement yesterday of a new company they started called Helix, which is going to provide data centers and power. They're going to put co-located power in place. So thinking about natural gas power, thinking about solar and storage power, whatever it takes to get this done. SMRs as well are part of that and that with Vistra Energy. And so there's going to be this private market push. But I also think there should be a push within the regulated utilities to cause further deregulation. Something that started really in the 70s and got encouraged in the 90s and early 2000s and led to the IPPs.
我们需要更多的独立电力生产商（IPPs）。这些公司是最适合解决这一问题的。他们行动最快，也最有能力积极应对电力消耗需求。不过，整个供应链也需要加速增长和提升能力，以便能够提供涡轮机、传输设备、开关设备等所有必要的东西。那么，如果我们看到进一步的电力市场放松管制，对居民用电价格会有什么影响？我认为，目前我们看到的是针对大型贷款中心的一个平行市场正在形成。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We need more IPPs. These are the best companies to attack this. They're the fastest movers. They're the ones that can most aggressively address the power consumption needs. But then the whole supply chain's got to surge and lever up and be able to supply the turbines, the transmissions, the switch gears, everything else. And what are the implications for residential rates then if we see further deregulation? Right. So I think right now what we're seeing is a parallel market being created for large loan centers.
我认为数据中心、高级制造业和零售市场都在努力保护自己。对于数据中心和大型科技公司来说，他们并不想对零售市场和家庭造成影响。他们不希望看到电力波动或电价上涨。为了确保新的发电设备——其成本会更高——由数据中心和大型科技公司来承担，而不是影响普通用户的费用。我们知道，美国的电力供应变得越来越依赖太阳能和天然气等能源。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think data centers and advanced manufacturing and the retail market trying to be protected. None of the data center for hyperscalers want to impact the retail market, the households. They do not want to see power surges, power price increases there. They want to make sure that the new generation that's built, which is going to be at a much higher price point, is paid for by the data centers and the hyperscalers and not impacting rate pairs. We know that the sort of power picture across the U.S. has become more dependent on things like solar and natural gas.
风能越来越多地被排除在考虑之外，因为特朗普总统不喜欢它。如果我们真的想大力发展，这会是个问题吗？其实，我们这个月刚刚启动了美国最大的风力发电场，所以风能并没有完全停滞。不过，新的许可审批的确变慢了。这届政府实际上并不支持风能市场，还有一些涉及国家安全和风能的问题是由国防部提出的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Wind is being taken out of the equation more and more often because President Trump doesn't like it. Is that going to be a problem going forward if we're trying to really ramp up? Well, we just started the largest wind farm in the United States this month, so it's not like wind has stopped. Now, new permitting has certainly slowed. This administration is not really behind the wind market and there's some issues around national security and wind. The Department of War has brought up.
总体而言，我认为太阳能加储能（只要我们能实现长时间储存）是足够的。天然气非常可靠，美国的天然气资源非常丰富。目前，新发电设施中有75%使用天然气，并已获得许可。美国以及世界上其他许多地方都拥有大量的天然气储量，特别是在美国，这足以提供所需的电力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I think that overall, solar plus storage, as long as storage we can get to long duration storage, is adequate. Natural gas is very reliable. It's abundant here in the U.S. Seventy-five percent of what's being built today on new generation and has permits is natural gas. And we have a ton of natural gas in this country, and in lots of pockets around the world, too, but especially in this country, to be able to provide that power.
James，现在很多大型云计算公司都在与那些独立电力生产商达成类似“表后协议”（即在电表后直接获得电力）。在某些地区，政府正试图将此作为接入电网的条件，强制执行。你认为市场会自行解决这个问题，并将其作为这类协议的标准吗？目前，我们看到联邦能源监管委员会（FERC）在不同市场上行使监管能力，要求这些公司在建立数据中心的同时，也要有能力建立“表后”电力设施，因为连接到电网可能需要五到七年时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
James, a lot of these hyperscalers are making these sort of behind-the-meter agreements with those independent power producers. There are some jurisdictions that are trying to mandate that, right, as a condition of hooking up here. Do you think the market's going to kind of take care of it and that that is going to be the standard for these types of arrangements? What we're seeing right now is FERC, with the regulatory capabilities on the various markets, is telling them that you need to have a way to build power, build data centers at the same time as you build behind-the-meter power, because your grid connection may not come for five to seven years.
因此，让他们去建设电力，在可能的时候进行连接，希望届时你能够实现电力的双向销售，从而为电网创造更多的稳定性。 但就目前而言，由于连接的排队时间很长，采用“表后”的解决方案确实是正确的选择。詹姆斯，电力公司曾经在一段时间内表现很好，但如今不少公司整体上有些停滞不前。比如，今年标准普尔的公用事业指数上涨了3.5%，表现略逊于市场。一些在这个领域有很大杠杆的公司，比如Constellation，今年下跌了29%。这里究竟发生了什么？因为我知道你依然看好很多这些股票。我们确实喜欢所有这些股票。我认为这是监管方面的不确定性。PJM通过联邦能源监管委员会(FERC)进行干预，迫使他们进行市场干预，并且可能会在今年9月进行一次非市场化的拍卖。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, let them build that power, connect it at some point when you can, hopefully, then you can sell power back and forth to the grid and create more stability for the grid. But for right now, because the interconnection queues are so long, behind-the-meter is absolutely the right solution. James, the power companies had a really, you know, they had a rip, and then they've, many of them, and collectively, have kind of stalled out. Like, if I look at the S&P Utilities Index this year, it's up three and a half percent, so it's underperforming the market. Some of the big guys that are really leveraged to this, like a constellation, it's down 29% this year. What's going on there? Because I know you still like a lot of these stocks. We like, really, all those stocks. I think it's regulatory uncertainty. You know, PJM had to come in via FERC, forcing them to do a market intervention, and they're going to have a backstop auction probably this September, which is not a market-based function.
他们实际上正在进入并改变至少一个拍卖流程的游戏规则。所以，我们需要观察事情的发展或最终的形成情况。我们知道有关评论，公司方面的言论，以及FERC（美国联邦能源管理委员会）发布的初步信息，但我们需要PJM发布的最终版本。PJM需要向FERC提交最终文件，然后FERC需要批准。同时，德州的监管机构对于ERC的介入表示，我们要批量处理而不是一个一个处理。我认为正是这种监管的不确定性让这些股票停滞不前，而与此同时，我们看到对用于人工智能的芯片、内存等需求在加速增长。没有你刚刚在屏幕上列出的公司，所有这些都无法实现。对吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, they're actually coming in and changing the nature of the game for at least one auction process. And so, we need to see how that plays out or how that's going to be formed. We know what the commentary has been, what the companies have said. We've seen the initial, what FERC has been out with, but we need the final version that they -- sorry, PJM has been out with. PJM needs to come out with the final filing to FERC, and then FERC has to sign off. And then ERC had an intervention as well by the Texas regulator saying we're going to go to batches instead of one-by-ones. I think it's more of the regulatory uncertainty around this that has kept these stocks at bay, whereas we're continuing to see, you know, the acceleration and demand growth for chips, memory, et cetera, that are going into AI. Well, you can't do any of that stuff without the list of companies you just put on the screen. Right.
那么，你认为接下来的突破点是什么呢？是否解决这些监管问题才是关键？我认为是的，而且解决方案即将到来。我们在谈的可能是在接下来的几周内进行的拍卖会，PJM的拍卖会会在九月进行，但我们认为需要在此之前进行双边交易。我觉得你可能已经开始看到这方面的第一步了，比如昨天KKR与他们的合作伙伴NVIDIA和Invistra的宣布，我相信你会看到更多这样的事情。然而，独立电力生产商（IPPs）与大型云计算企业之间的谈判并未减缓。他们现在正在进行场景分析，只是希望在签署最终协议之前看到最终的监管框架。如今，我们已经完成了99%的工作。我并不是在开玩笑，这跟伊朗协议之类的不一样，我的意思是，我们在现实世界中确实已经完成了99%的工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, what do you think is going to be the unlock then? Is it sort of the resolution of some of these regulatory issues? I think it is. And the resolution is imminent. We're talking the next few weeks in the auction in PJM is going to be in September, but we think we need to have bilateral transactions that occur well before that. And I think you started to see the first of that with a KKR announcement yesterday with their partners, NVIDIA and Invistra, and I think you'll see more of that. But there's been no slowdown in negotiations between the IPPs and the hyperscalers. Those that have continued their running scenario analysis right now, they just want to see kind of the final regulatory framework before they start on the dotted line. But we're 99 percent of the way there. I don't mean that as like the Iran deal run. I mean, we're actually 99 percent of the way there. In reality, in the real world.
是的。最后，詹姆斯，我很好奇，我们在全国各地的某些地方看到针对大型项目的强烈反对意见。你认为这是一种实质性风险吗？因为这似乎拖慢了进程。确实是一种风险，可能会让进程变慢。我觉得数据中心的大型企业在选择房地产时考虑到了这些因素。例如，德州已经表示不要制造噪音，某些市场也说要暂停一下。但总的来说，发展的动力依然很强。因此，在某些郡，当你进入这些地方，与当地人沟通，展示税收优惠和就业机会时，这些项目一般都会顺利进行。所以我认为这是一个短期内的问题。坦白说，我认为AI公司在解释AI方面做得不够好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yes. Just finally, James, I'm curious, you know, we've seen this big backlash in various municipalities around the country against these big projects. Is that a material risk, do you think? Because it has seemed to slow it down. It is a risk. It could slow things down. I mean, I think the data center hyperscalers are looking at their real estate shopping. I mean, Texas has said, hey, don't make it noisy. Certain markets have said, let's pause on this. But I think overall the momentum is still very strong. So, certain counties, and when you go into the counties and you talk to the people, you show them the tax benefits, you show them the job creation. Generally speaking, these things start to move forward. So, I think it's a near-term kind of concern. I think the AI companies, quite frankly, have not done a good job of explaining AI.
你知道，出来说我们要剥夺你们一半的工作岗位，没有人愿意听到这样的话。不过，实际上证明了这种说法并不准确，人工智能实际上创造的就业机会比它取代的要多。我认为，随着人们逐渐认识到这一点，人们对数据中心的接受程度会提高。他们也会更容易接受水的使用，因为现在这些都是封闭循环的，所以不会污染水源，不会把水变成像美国国会议员AOC所展示的那种棕色的液体。这种情况在数据中心的实际运作中并不存在。詹姆斯，非常感谢你的加入，真的很感激。绝对的，谢谢你，朱莉。很高兴和你交流。我们继续等待SpaceX以每股135美元的价格将股票出售给公众后的首次交易。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, coming out and saying we're taking half your jobs. Nobody wants to hear that. So, look, I think as that kind of proves itself not to be actually accurate, that AI actually creates more jobs than it takes away. I think people get more comfortable with data centers. They get more comfortable with the water usage. It's all closed loop at this point now. So, you're not contaminating the water. You're not browning the water like, you know, you have AOC of Congress showing bottles of water with brown liquid in there. That's not actually what's happening on the ground at the data centers. James, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Absolutely. Thanks, Julie. Good to talk. We continue to await the first trade after SpaceX sold shares to the public at 135 apiece.
现在，彭博社报道最新的迹象显示，股票开盘价预计为168.75。这一数字有所下降，但各方仍在角力、定位和谈判。当然，我们会继续为您跟踪报道首次交易。我们马上回来，谢谢，谢谢。我们目前正和NASDAQ现场的Brian Sazie以及坐在我旁边的执行编辑一起等待首次交易。我所看到的最新预估是168.75，比我们的调查结果和我的估计都要低。Julie，你说得对，一切都在于收盘价。收盘价很重要，收盘价具有决定性意义。我想无论如何，收盘价很重要。而且还取决于股票接下来几天的表现。Brooke，很有趣看到这些迹象并没有显示股价大幅上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, Bloomberg is reporting that the latest indication is for the shares to open at 168.75. That number has been moving lower a little bit, but they're still jockeying. They're still positioning. They're still negotiating. And, of course, we will keep you posted on that first trade. We'll be right back. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. With us from down on the NASDAQ and Brian Sazie, our executive editor, here with me at the desk as we await that first trade. The latest indications that I've seen, 168.75. So lower than our poll would have indicated. Lower than I guessed. You said it right, Julie. It's all about the close. It's all about the close. I guess it's all about the close. It's all about the close. It's all about the, also like how the stock is going to do in the coming days. Brooke, you know, it's interesting to see this thing not go sky high in the indications.
当然是这样的，Julie。嗯，看，我不是故意用双关语的，对不起。用“天空高”和“火箭”等词，对不起，真的不是故意的。今天我们可以用各种双关语，Julie，不用担心。根据我的消息来源，兴奋的情绪是确实存在的。我之前提到过，由于需求非常高，我们现在所要做的就是观察事态的发展。当然，目前的价格仍高于最初设定的135美元。这意味着任何高于这个价格的情况都是超出我们之前预期的，Julie。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It certainly is, Julie. Well, look, I didn't mean to do that pun. I didn't mean to do the pun. Sorry. Sky high. Sorry. Sky high, rocket, out of this world. I mean, we could use all the puns today, Julie. It's okay. It's okay. I think that what we're hearing from my sources from here, the excitement definitely is there. And I think that because of the fact that this has seen such high demand, as I was saying before, that it kind of is waiting and seeing where exactly this all plays out. Of course, we're still above where exactly it was set to debut at that $135 mark. So anywhere above that would still be a premium to what we had previously expected, Julie.
Saz，我们今天早上也在讨论，不仅是关于SpaceX本身，还讨论了它对华尔街生态系统的影响。这意味着，纳斯达克赢得了这次IPO，对它有什么意义？对其他大型即将到来的IPO有什么影响？这又对那些零售交易者通过的证券公司意味着什么呢？华尔街所有的承销商都在关注。过去几周，我们谈了多少人，当我们问起SpaceX，他们说因为自己公司参与了IPO所以很难发表意见？很多，几乎是所有人。所以，这种大的光环效应真的很有趣。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And Saz, you and I were talking this morning as well, not just about SpaceX for itself, but what it means for the ecosystem of Wall Street. So that means, what does it mean for NASDAQ, the fact that it won this IPO? What are the implications for the other big IPOs coming? What does it mean for all these brokers through which retail traders requested stuff, right? Feasting. All the underwriters, like everybody on Wall Street. How many people have we talked to in the past couple of weeks who we've asked about SpaceX and they said, well, I'm constrained from what I can say because my firm was involved in the IPO? A lot of them. Everybody, yeah. So it's just interesting, that big halo effect.
请记住，纳斯达克是一家上市公司。我觉得现在是个好时候，可以回头开始计算纳斯达克的潜在估值，因为今天你看到的是一场历史上规模最大的SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO），而且它很有可能会顺利进行。虽然我们不该过早乐观，但它在时代广场的纳斯达克屏幕上看起来赏心悦目，同时在SpaceX的总部也显得一切就绪，工作完成得很出色。纳斯达克在处理IPO方面非常在行。如果我是Anthropic的山姆·奥尔特曼或达里奥·阿马代，我看到这次IPO进行得很顺利，我会立刻联系纳斯达克的人，看看可以怎么合作，把自己的公司推向市场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Keep in mind, NASDAQ is a public company. And now would be a good time, I think, to go back and start crunching numbers on potential valuations for NASDAQ because this is what you're seeing today, a SpaceX IPO, world's largest in history, that looks likely it's going to go off pretty darn well without a hitch. Visually. Don't jinx that. No, I know, but also visually pleasing at the NASDAQ at Times Square, also looks to be a job well done at SpaceX HQ. NASDAQ does IPOs very well. And if I'm Sam Allman, if I'm Dario Amadei over at Anthropic, I see this going off very well. I'm calling up the NASDAQ people and seeing what I can do with NASDAQ to bring their companies to market.
纳斯达克的表现更出色。我并不是说纽约证券交易所不擅长运作，它可是纽约证券交易所。但我认为这对纳斯达克来说是一个非常重大的胜利。从投资角度看，我会重新审视纳斯达克的年度报告，了解它们是如何转型的。同时，需要明确的是，对于由洲际交易所（ICE）拥有的纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克来说，上市业务其实只是它们业务中的一小部分。然而，在提升声誉和形象这个方面，它的影响力却非常重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
NASDAQ hack is down. Now, I'm not saying New York Stock Exchange doesn't know what it's doing. It's a New York Stock Exchange. But I think this is a very, very big win for NASDAQ. And from an investment standpoint, I'm going back to the annual report on NASDAQ and understanding how they have transformed their business. Well, and just to be clear here, and this is something I've said many times, for both NYSE, which is owned by ICE, and NASDAQ, this is a minority. This is not a huge part of their business, the listings business. But in terms of, again, that halo effect, that reputational boost that it gets, it is very significant.
布鲁克，你刚才提到纳斯达克的人有多激动，因为活动在他们那里举行。没错，朱莉。而且，要记住纳斯达克的具体位置。我们就在时代广场的街角，也就是第43街和百老汇大街的交汇处。再加上世界杯和尼克斯的比赛，纽约的氛围已经非常热闹了。现在再加上这个活动，吸引了数百人的人群。仅仅是因为它所在的位置，就位于纽约市中心和心脏地带，这一地理位置也非常重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, Brooke, you were talking about just how pumped all the NASDAQ people are that they have this event happening there. Exactly, Julie. And also, keep in mind about where exactly the NASDAQ sits. I mean, we are at the corner of Times Square. We're at 43rd and Broadway. And between this, the World Cup, the Knicks, I mean, the excitement in New York has already been buzzing. And now you bring in this, and it garnered a crowd of hundreds of people. So even just the seat and where it sits right in the middle and really the heart of New York City, it definitely speaks volumes to just physical location of where it is.
就像我今天早些时候说的那样，今天所需要的安全措施和协调工作量很大。连SpaceX都在他们位于德克萨斯和这里的总部敲响了钟声，他们的表现确实引人注目。即使是现在，银行家们也在努力搞清楚这一切将在何处开启，而在楼上，那位最终会按下首次交易按钮的人正在与银行家密切合作，正如我们之前说过的，他们正在一起进行买卖，努力确定首次公开募股（IPO）的开盘价。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also just, like I said earlier today, the amount of security, the amount of coordination that this has taken today. Even SpaceX, you know, ringing the bell at both their headquarters in Texas and here, they definitely have put on a show. And even when you think about where exactly, you know, the bankers right now trying to understand where exactly this is going to open, there's currently an entire show happening upstairs as that person, who ultimately will hit the first trade button, sort of works with bankers. And like we said before, works with bankers to buy and sell and get to that IPO, that first trade price.
当前在纳斯达克进行的活动，正如Brian所说，人们正在关注。这其中有一些细微的差别，我认为关键在于背景：首先，这是纳斯达克第二次让Elon Musk的公司上市，第一家公司显然是特斯拉。此外，Brooke，我们两个月前报道过这一点，纳斯达克还赢得了沃尔玛。沃尔玛从纽约证券交易所转到了纳斯达克，我认为这向许多其他公司传达了一个重要的信号。而且，到目前为止，共有500多家公司从纽约证券交易所转到了纳斯达克，涉及12个行业。这相当有意义，这表明纳斯达克继续在其作为技术导向的交易所的地位上积累势头，这也正是这些公司应该去的地方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so the show happening right now at Nasdaq, like Brian said, people are watching. It's small nuance here. I think it's important, like context. One, this is the second Elon Musk company that Nasdaq has brought public. Obviously, of course, the first one there is Tesla. Also, too, Brooke, you and I reported this two months ago. You know, Nasdaq also won Walmart. Walmart moved from the New York Stock Exchange over to Nasdaq, which really set a statement, I think, to a lot of other companies. And just to add on that, to date, 500 plus companies have switched from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq across 12 sectors. And so that is pretty significant. It's like Nasdaq continues to build on this momentum that they are the heart, the tech-focused exchange where these companies should be going.
我们知道，沃尔玛一直在努力变得更加“科技驱动”或“人性化科技驱动”，更专注于科技。因此，这些公司将纳斯达克视为类似的平台。而当我去纽约证券交易所报道那里的IPO时，尽管同样令人兴奋并充满活力，但往往会更多地涉及面向消费者的公司，比如餐馆或餐饮品牌或快消品牌。这是一个有趣的区别。正如我们所知，纳斯达克也更改了其规则，以便将SpaceX纳入其各个指数中，这一点并不简单。顺便一提，目前股票的指示仍在下跌。根据彭博社的最新报道，价格已降至165美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we know Walmart has been trying to be more, what's their phrase, tech-powered or human-powered, tech-focused. And so these are companies that see that Nasdaq as something like that, whereas when I go to the New York Stock Exchange to cover IPOs down there, which is also exciting and lots of momentum, it does tend to be more consumer-facing companies like a diner or a restaurant or a CPG brand. Yeah, that is an interesting distinction here. And as we know, Nasdaq also changed its rules for SpaceX to be included in its various indices, which is not insignificant. It used to be Elon. The indications, by the way, for the stock are still falling. $165 is the latest that I'm seeing reported by Bloomberg.
非常有趣。不是175美元吗？ 是的。对，非常有趣。我们会一直关注这个情况，是的。朱莉，要记住，价格只要保持在135美元以上，埃隆·马斯克依然是万亿富翁。这就是大家都在谈论的：他成为世界上第一个万亿富翁。只要价格保持在135美元以上，人们就会让它实现。不管怎样，似乎一切都对埃隆有利。他有签署捐赠承诺吗？是的，对吧。好吧，不捐赠承诺。他承诺保留所有。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Very interesting. Wasn't it $175? Yes. Yeah. So very interesting. We're going to keep monitoring that, obviously. Yeah. Julie, keep in mind, I mean, anything above $135, though, still makes Elon Musk a trillionaire. And that's what everyone's been talking about, him becoming the world's first trillionaire. As long as it stays above $135, then people will make that work. Everything's coming up, Elon, no matter what, I guess. Did he sign the giving pledge? Yeah, right. All right. Non-giving pledge. Non-giving pledged. They keep it all pledged.
好的，继续喝那些Celsius，布莱恩。布鲁克，我们会和你回来。萨尔会和我一起回来。接下来，我们将讨论首次公开募股（IPO）及其对退休基金的影响。这是一个重要的话题。我们马上回来。所有的目光都集中在SpaceX身上，因华尔街正为史上最大规模的上市敲鼓助威。SpaceX的IPO也将影响到退休收入，因为公司股票的波动会影响到退休基金。我的下一位嘉宾称SpaceX的IPO是为退休客户准备的“赌城资金”。现在请看，本周特别节目“FA角”邀请到了GenWealth Financial的财务顾问特蕾莎·阿拉戈，由资本集团赞助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Keep pounding those Celsius, Brian. All right. Brooke, we're going to be back with you. Sal's going to be back with me. Coming up, we're going to talk about the IPO and its effect on retirement funds. Important topic there. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. All eyes are on SpaceX as Wall Street beats the drum for the largest public listing of all time. SpaceX's IPO will also have impacts on retirement incomes as exposure to the company ripples into retirement funds. My next guest calls SpaceX's IPO Vegas money for retirement clients. Joining me now, Teresa Arago, financial advisor at GenWealth Financial for this week's FA Corner brought to you by Capital Group.
有很多的兴奋和炒作，大家议论纷纷。特蕾莎，你告诉你的客户什么呢？因为我确定有些人想参与其中。是的，我确实和很多客户进行了交流。有趣的是，有一些平时非常保守或者要求我帮他们保持保守的客户也开始联系我。我的立场一直是教育客户关于IPO（首次公开募股）是如何运作的，以及它在二级市场上运行的方式，然后根据他们的计划做出是否参与的决策，看这是否合理。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There is a lot of excitement. There's a lot of hype. There's a lot of talk. Teresa, what are you telling your clients? Because I'm sure some of them want to get in on this. Yes, I've actually had a lot of conversations with clients. What's been interesting is I've had conversations with clients who historically are very conservative or ask me to help them stay very conservative and they've been reaching out too. And my stance with my clients is always to educate them about how an IPO works, how it works when it gets on the secondary market and then make a decision based on their plan, whether it makes any sense or not.
但是，各个年龄段的人们对此都非常关注。所以，当你考虑你的客户在投资方面的目标时，不论他们是在20多岁、30多岁、40多岁，还是50多岁，接近退休的年龄，你会如何看待诸如IPO这样的事情，以及他们是否愿意承担这种风险？具体来说，我在LPL Financial工作，我们一般不参与IPO。因此，我不会鼓励他们参与或不参与。但是，我希望他们了解IPO的运作方式，因为有些客户会主动询问。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But there has been a lot of buzz among everybody across the age bands. And so, you know, when you think about your client's sort of horizon, right, on investment, whether they are in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, you know, closer to retirement, how do you think about then something like an IPO and whether they want to take on that risk? Specifically here, I work with LPL Financial. We do not participate in IPOs in general. So I'm never really going to be in the position to encourage them to participate or not. But I do want them to understand how it works because some of them will reach out.
具体来说，在SpaceX的情况下，很多股票分配给了散户投资者，这很不寻常。但我必须与他们讨论的一件重要事情是成为合格投资者。你知道，首次公开募股（IPO）有很大的风险。公司可能表现出色，也可能在市场上表现不佳。他们尚未在市场上经受考验。所以，如果他们不是合格投资者，未达到相关要求，就需要立即暂停。你知道，我不能告诉你如何处理自己的钱，但我确实希望你能考虑可能存在的限制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And specifically with SpaceX, there were a lot of shares allocated to retail investors, which is abnormal. But one of the most important things that I had to talk to them about was being an accredited investor. You know, an IPO has a lot of risk to it. The company could be great. The company could not do so great on the market. They've not been battle tested on the market. So if they're not accredited and meeting those requirements, then it's an immediate, hey, pause. You know, I can't tell you not to do that with your own money, but I definitely want you to consider the limitations that you may have there.
但说到退休，那就是完全不同的话题了。在你的退休计划中，股票确实有其一席之地。在我看来，把参与IPO作为退休计划的一部分是非常棘手的。当然，有些人最终可能会持有这些股票，不管他们是否特意选择它们。这是因为，如我们所知，罗素指数和纳斯达克已经修改了他们的规则，使SpaceX能够更快地进入他们的各种基准指数。你知道，有点像快速通道。是的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But when it comes to retirement, that is a totally different conversation. There is a place for stock in your retirement. Taking part in an IPO would be very tricky, in my opinion, in being part of your retirement plan as a holding. I mean, of course, some of these folks are going to end up owning it, whether they choose it specifically or not. And that's because, as we know, Russell and NASDAQ have changed their rules to allow SpaceX to enter their various benchmarks much quicker. You know, sort of a fast track. Yes.
你怎么看待这个问题呢？你是否引导客户选择标普指数，因为它们不会那么早纳入SpaceX？我对客户的建议是，对于SpaceX或者任何新上市的股票，我们都应该稍等片刻，给它一点时间，就像泰勒·斯威夫特巡回演出时，票价暴涨远超常规一样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so how do you think about that? And are you steering clients to the S&P indices because they won't have SpaceX as early? I think for my clients, what we've talked about when it comes to SpaceX and really any newer stocks that come onto the market is to let it breathe for a minute. You know, it's sort of like when Taylor Swift was on her tour, right? The tickets were just exponentially higher than they normally would have been for a concert.
当您遇到这样的情况时，这种情况往往会发生，大家都感到非常兴奋。参与首次公开募股（IPO）的机构通常是根据数据进行投资。但是，普通投资者往往是基于兴奋或情绪来买入。而在退休规划中，重要的是分析数据，而不是依赖情绪。所以，我知道在某个时候我们会讨论这个话题。但最初，对于很多人来说，这可能并不是最合适的选择。他们需要和他们的理财顾问沟通，确保从整个财务计划的角度来看，这是否合适，而不只是因为它是一个新的热门事物。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that tends to happen when you have one of these where there's this excitement. You know, the institutions that are participating in that IPO, they're buying based on data. But the retail investors are usually buying based on excitement or emotion. And when it comes to your retirement, it's about analytics, not emotion. So I know it's going to be part of our conversation at some point. But initially, for a lot of people, it may not be the best fit. They need to talk to their financial advisor and make sure that in the scope of their entire plan, that this makes sense regardless of whether it's the new shiny thing or not.
你认为纳斯达克和罗素快速地将其纳入是错误的选择吗？完全不是。我认为他们比我们大多数人掌握了更多的数据。因此，他们做出这个决定是基于对其过程有利的假设。所以，我不反对他们把它纳入其中。但我只是希望个人投资者在迅速做出这一决定之前，能够理解这一总体范围。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Do you think that NASDAQ and Russell made the wrong choice in deciding to include it more quickly? Not at all. I think that, you know, they have a lot more data than most of us do. And so they made that decision assuming that it would be good for their process. So I don't have an issue with them involving in including it there. But I just want to make sure the individual investor understands the overall scope of that instead of making that decision quickly.
你知道，我们非常倡导在退休问题上不要感情用事，尤其是整体来看。因此，我们总是会说，让我们确保了解数据，并确保它在大局中有意义。特蕾莎，非常感谢你。我们很感激。这是由Capital Group为您带来的F8角落。但我们仍在等待SpaceX股票的开盘。根据彭博社的报道，最后的迹象显示，这次公开出售的SpaceX股票可能会以165美元的价格进行首次交易，而最初向公众出售的价格是每股135美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, we're big fans of not making emotional decisions when it comes to your retirement, especially in general. So we're always going to say, let's make sure we understand the data and that it makes sense in the bigger picture. Teresa, thank you so much. Appreciate it. That was F8 Corner brought to you by Capital Group. But we are still waiting for those SpaceX shares to open up. At last check, the indications, again, as reported by Bloomberg, 165 could be the first trade of SpaceX after it sold shares to the public at $135 apiece.
我们会密切关注。当那些股票开始交易时，我们会再和大家联系。所以请继续锁定雅虎财经。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be watching it very closely. And we will come back to you when those shares do start trading. So keep it right here on Yahoo Finance. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.