Markets Weekly June 13, 2026
发布时间 来源
Episode 设置
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:53 - Peak Inflation
08:10 - Equity Supply Coming
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
大家好，今天是6月13日，欢迎来到《市场周报》。本周市场波动很大。周初时，我们似乎进入了一个“逢高卖出”的新阶段，开盘时大幅上涨，但在收盘前被大力抛售。不过，在周中的后半段，市场情绪出现了变化。伊朗方面出现了积极进展，这极大地提振了市场情绪，使得我们本周基本上以持平收尾。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is June 13th, and this is Markets Weekly. Alright, so this week was a very volatile week in markets. Earlier in the week, we seemed to be in a new sell-the-rip regime where we had big rallies at open that were sold off aggressively into the close. Towards the second part of the week, though, there was a change in tone. We had positive developments on the Iran front, and that really boosted sentiment such that we ended up the week basically unchanged.
现在，今天，我们来谈两件事情。首先，我们讨论一下过去一周的通胀数据，这表明我们可能正处于通胀的高峰期。其次，我们谈谈SpaceX的首次公开募股（IPO），这是有史以来规模最大的IPO。当然，也要谈谈即将到来的庞大股票供应，这对SpaceX来说肯定不利，可能对整个市场也会有负面影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about the inflation data we got the past week and how it seems like we're at peak inflation. And secondly, let's talk about the SpaceX IPO, largest IPO ever, and of course, the upcoming flood of equity supply in the coming months that will definitely be bad for SpaceX and probably for the broader market as well.
好的，我们先来看一下通货膨胀。上周我们得到了CPI（消费者价格指数）数据，结果不是很好。CPI的年同比增长率达到了4.2%。这意味着通货膨胀率又回到了4%以上。但是，当你仔细查看CPI的详细数据时，会发现情况其实更乐观一点。详细数据表明，CPI的上升完全是由于能源价格的上涨。伊朗战争导致原油价格上涨，进而影响到汽油、航空燃油和各类能源价格，从而推高了CPI。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with inflation. So last week, we got CPI, and it was straight up not good. CPI, headline CPI on a year-over-year basis was 4.2%, guys. So inflation is back to a four-handle. But when you look at the details of the CPI print, though, it's much more encouraging. Looking at the details, you can see that CPI is high entirely due to high energy prices. The war with Iran drove up crude oil, and that bled into gasoline, jet fuel, and all sorts of energy prices, and that is boosting CPI.
当你查看核心CPI，即剔除食品和能源后的CPI时，按月计算仅为0.2%。根据来自Anna Wong和彭博社的图表，你可以看到通胀率，即核心CPI，基本上达到了美联储的目标。如果能源价格继续保持稳定，我们会看到通胀趋势下降。几周前，原油每桶价格超过了100美元，但最近有所下降，尤其是上周由于伊朗方面的利好消息而显著下降。如果这种趋势持续下去，那么我们可以期待CPI下降，这表明通胀至少目前已经达到顶峰。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When you look at core CPI, that is to say, CPI excluding food and energy, on a month-over-month basis, it's only 0.2%. So if you analyze that, looking at this chart from Anna Wong and Bloomberg, you can see that inflation, core CPI is basically at the Fed's target. Now, if energy prices continue to cooperate, we will see inflation trend down. Now, energy prices, if you look at the barrel of crude oil a few weeks ago, was over $100, but it's been moving lower, and this past week moved lower aggressively on positive news on the Iran front. So as long as that continues, then we can see that CPI come down, and that suggests that inflation has peaked, at least for the moment.
上周，我们还获得了PPI数据，这是企业支付的价格。现在，这个指数也在上升。当然，企业也面临较高的能源价格，同时，我们正在进行的人工智能建设也带来了一定的制造业繁荣，这也推动了价格的上涨。所以，PPI仍然在高位。但是，美联储关注的目标并不是CPI或PPI，而是另一项衡量消费者价格的指标，PCE。如果你知道PPI和CPI，你就可以比较准确地预测PCE的走势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, last week, we also got PPI, which is prices paid by businesses. Now, that was also elevated. Of course, businesses face high energy prices as well, and of course, we have an AI build-out that's leading to a bit of a manufacturing boom, so that's been pushing our prices as well. So again, PPI is also elevated. But what the Fed targets is not CPI or PPI, but PCE, another measure of consumer prices. If you have PPI, if you have CPI, you can make a pretty good prediction of what PCE is.
根据克利夫兰联储的说法，PCE（个人消费支出）仍然较高，但从环比角度来看，情况明显在改善。原油价格走势下降，这意味着能源价格正在下跌。通胀方面的一个积极信号是，我们还从密歇根大学消费者调查中得到了通胀预期数据。中期的通胀预期出现了明显下降。因此，可以这样理解美联储：他们不仅关注实际的通胀水平，更是关注通胀预期。因为美联储认为，通胀预期会引导或至少会影响实际的通胀情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So according to the Cleveland Fed, again, PCE will be elevated, but on a month-over-month basis, it looks like it's definitely improving, right? Crude oil prices are trending lower. That means energy prices are coming down. Now, what was really positive on the inflation front is that we also got inflation expectations from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. And inflation expectations on the medium term had a discrete decline. So one of the ways that you can think about the Fed is not just not really targeting spot inflation, but targeting inflation expectations, because the Fed thinks that inflation expectations lead, or at least cause, realized inflation.
现在，随着通胀预期的下降，这当然让美联储感到安心，因为它们不必担心通胀失控。因此，在接下来的几个月里，是否会加息或降息完全取决于中东局势，这当然会影响油价，而油价又推动了通胀上升。所以，看起来伊朗方面确实有非常积极的发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, with inflation expectations coming down, that, of course, is very comforting to the Fed, such that they don't have to worry about inflation going out of control. So whether or not we are going to have rate hikes or rate cuts in the coming months is really just going to completely depend on what happens in the Middle East, which, of course, is what is impacting oil prices, which is what's driving inflation higher. So it looks like we do have very genuinely positive developments on the Iran front.
从战争一开始，总统就一直在宣传一个和平协议。我记得有一家媒体统计过，总统可能说了30多次协议即将达成。但现在伊朗的局势似乎真的发生了改变。所以我们也了解到更多关于为什么油价比很多人预测的要低得多的信息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the president has been touting a peace deal basically since the beginning of the war. I think some journal counted maybe 30 some times the president is telling everyone a deal was close. But now there seems to be a legitimate change in what's happening with Iran. So we also have a lot more information as to why oil prices have been much lower than what many have projected.
所以尽管霍尔木兹海峡大致上已经关闭了，比如说，有三个月的时间，但有消息透露出，上周在美军的帮助下，确实有一些油轮成功通过。因此，部分供应仍在继续。第二个要点是，美国一直在积极消耗其战略石油储备（SPR），这在一定程度上缓解了霍尔木兹海峡的供应短缺问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So although the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed for, let's say, three months, present revealed last week that actually with the help of the US military, some oil vessels have been getting through. So some supply has been getting through. The second point is that the US has been aggressively drawing down on its SPR. So it's strategic patrolling reserve. And that's been buffering the shortage from the Strait of Hormuz.
中国似乎也在积极减少其储备。中国的战略储备中有超过十亿桶石油，而在过去几周里，他们一直在减少这部分储备，导致从全球进口的石油减少。当中国进口的石油减少时，这意味着其他地方可以获得更多的石油。所有这些因素一起导致了油价低于预期。不过，如果你看这张美国战略石油储备（SPR）水平的图表，就会发现储备也在快速减少，并且已经接近最低的操作水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also we can we've learned that China seems to be aggressively drawing down on its buffer as well. China has over a billion barrels in its strategic reserve. And over the past few weeks, it's been drawing some of that down such that it's been importing less oil from the world. And when it imports less oil from the world, that's more barrels that can go to other places. So all of this together has been contributing to oil prices that are lower than expectations. But if you look at this chart of US SPR levels, you can see that it's been drying down aggressively and that we're very close to minimal operational levels.
很多石油公司的首席执行官在电视上频频露面，他们告诉白宫以及所有人，如果这个问题不能很快解决，比如在这个月月底之前，我们将无法再从战略石油储备中提取石油。因此，到那时，油价可能会大幅上涨。所以总统的时间所剩无几了。如果他不尽快采取措施，石油价格将会上涨。而且，这对他来说是一个不利时机，因为我们有7月4日的庆祝活动、世界杯，还有中期选举。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So a lot of oil CEOs have been making the rounds on TV, telling the White House, telling everyone that if this is not resolved very soon, say by the end of this month, we're going to not be able to draw down the SPR anymore. And so at that point, you can have oil prices really spike. So the president has basically run out of time. If he doesn't fix something soon, oil prices will spike. And this is a bad time for him because we have the 4th of July celebration, we have FIFA, and of course, we have midterm elections.
看起来总统正处于达成对伊朗非常有利的协议的边缘。当然，目前细节仍不清晰。美国似乎打算取消对伊朗的制裁，并释放大量资金。最终，这场战争在政治上对总统代价高昂，背叛了他的支持者，使得油价上涨，对中期选举造成了困难。这对美国的盟友也很不利。想想中东的盟友，还有韩国和日本，他们不得不派遣一些军事导弹去支持中东的战争。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it seems like the president is on the cusp of making some kind of deal that is really favorable to Iran. So far, of course, details are still murky. It seems like the US is going to lift sanctions and release a lot of funds to Iran. And so at the end of the day, this was a war that was politically very costly for the president. It betrayed his base. It made gas prices higher, so it made it difficult for the midterms. It was something that was bad for US allies. Think about the Middle East allies. Think about Korea, Japan, which had to send over some military missiles to support that warfare in the Middle East.
总而言之，美国付出了所有这些代价，却一无所获，这与在阿富汗和伊朗发生的事情一致。所以基本上，这是完全可以预料的。但好消息是，这场噩梦似乎结束了。通货膨胀将会下降。如果情况果真如此，从利率市场的定价来看，伊朗协议有望达成的积极消息已经让市场预期的加息路径略有下降，未来几个月到明年仍可能有大约两次加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And at the end of the day, it's very clear that the United States got nothing for all its costs, which is consistent with what happened in Afghanistan and Iran. So basically, totally predictable. But the good news is it seems like this nightmare is over. Inflation will come down. And if that's the case, if you look at what's pricing in the rates market, at the positive news of the potential Iran deal, you had the market pricing in a slightly lower rate path, still about two hikes in the coming months into next year.
如果出现真正的和平协议，并且油价真的下降，那么美联储可能会转向中立立场，也就是既不加息也不降息。随着时间的推移，市场可能会预计利率下降。因此，如果中东局势的发展有利，利率市场可能会出现较大波动。不过，一切都存在变数，一旦中期选举结束，一切都有可能改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Should there be a genuine peace deal and should oil prices really do come down, you could easily see that the Fed move to a neutral position. So the Fed not hiking or not cutting. And over time, the market price and rate cuts. So you have some potential for pretty big moves in the rates market should developments in the Middle East prove favorable. Again, everything is in the air and everything could change once the midterm elections are over.
当然，我们也应该注意到，在阿拉伯石油禁运期间，真正让我们开始意识到经济损失的严重性是禁运结束之后，市场的运营也在那之后遭受了极大的打击。所以，在接下来的几个月里，我们将会了解到油价和供应流动需要多长时间才能恢复正常，以及对全球经济造成的持久损害有多大（如果有的话）。不过，目前为止，还是有不少好消息的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And of course, we should also note that during the Arab oil embargo, once the embargo ended is actually when we began to become more aware of the actual economic damage and the operating market suffered tremendously afterwards. So we'll find out in the coming months how long it takes to normalize the oil and supply flows and just how much lasting damage, if any, was done to the global economy. All right. So, so far though, very positive news.
好的，接下来我们要讨论的第二件事就是，当然，SpaceX的首次公开募股（IPO）。在周五，SpaceX进行了IPO。从《金融时报》的这张图表可以看出，这是迄今为止规模最大的IPO。SpaceX的IPO取得了巨大成功，使得埃隆·马斯克成为了万亿富翁，对，就是一万亿美元的富翁，远远超越了他最接近的竞争对手。这次IPO也让成千上万的SpaceX员工成为了百万富翁。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. The second thing we want to talk about is, of course, the SpaceX IPO. On Friday, SpaceX IPO. And if you look at this chart from the Financial Times, you can see it was the largest IPO ever by far. So the SpaceX IPO was a resounding success, making Elon Musk a trillionaire, right? A thousand billions, a trillionaire, far above his closest competitors. And it also made thousands of SpaceX employees millionaires as well.
现在，埃隆·马斯克对SpaceX的员工非常慷慨，给予了他们大量的股权奖励。当然，在过去的几年中，这些股权能否值钱并不是很确定。但现在，持有这些股权的人肯定非常高兴。不过，需要注意的是，从传统的股权估值指标来看，目前SpaceX的估值为2万亿美元。而去年和前年，它都亏损了几十亿美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, Elon has been very generous to SpaceX employees, giving them a lot of equity rewards. And of course, in the past few years, it really wasn't sure if they'd be worth anything. But now, of course, people who hold on are definitely very happy. Now, something to keep in mind, though, is that, you know, from a traditional equity valuation metric, SpaceX right now is valued at $2 trillion. And last year, it lost a few billion. And the year before, it lost a few billion.
因此，对于一家每年亏损数十亿美元的公司来说，其估值达到2万亿美元并没有多大意义。市场在很大程度上依赖于杠杆和动量。而埃隆·马斯克一直是一个能够为他的公司激发大量热情的人。我想，以特斯拉为例，它让很多做空者和看空者都破产了，因为它的驱动力并不完全是利润和亏损之类的指标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it doesn't make a lot of sense for a company that loses billions every year to be valued at $2 trillion. Again, markets are largely leveraged and momentum. And Elon has always been a person that has been able to inspire a lot of, I guess, enthusiasm for his companies. Tesla, for example, has bankrupted many, many, many short sellers, many bears, because it's not really driven by profit and loss and things like that.
SpaceX 再次展示了这是一家典型的埃隆公司。然而，尽管SpaceX的市值已经达到2万亿美元，但实际上只售出了750亿美元的权益。显然，过去几年持有SpaceX股份的许多人都想要套现。众所周知，这是一家很优秀的公司，并且可能会有杰出的成就。然而，在这个价位上，投资者可能会感到不安。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So SpaceX, again, is showing that this is consistent with an Elon company. That being said, though, now, although SpaceX is at a market cap of $2 trillion, only 75 billion in equity was sold. So a lot of people, a lot of SpaceX equity holders, obviously, who've been holding over the past few years, would like to cash out, right? So everyone knows that, you know, this is a great company, and probably going to do great things. But at this price is probably a pretty shaking thing.
而且，或许价格会上涨，或许不会，最好还是先锁定一些利润。这不仅仅对于SpaceX的员工适用，我们还要考虑所有风险投资基金和其他早期投资SpaceX的专业投资者。在接下来的几个月里，他们将能够出售自己的股份。事情的经过是这样的：在首次公开募股后，现有持股人何时能够出售股票是有很多规定的。因此，在未来几个月里，你可以预计员工和早期投资者会希望兑现他们的一部分收益。当然，这并不是因为他们不看好公司，而是因为需要规避风险，或者可能想去实现买那艘大游艇的梦想之类的东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, maybe it goes higher, maybe it doesn't, it's probably best to lock in some profits. And that's not just employees of SpaceX, but we'll think about all the venture funds and all the other professional investors that were early investors into SpaceX. Now, over the coming months, they are going to be able to sell their equity. So the way this works is that there's a lot of rules governing when existing holders can sell their stock after an initial public offering. And so over time, over the coming months, you can expect that employees, early investors are going to want to monetize some of their some of their some of their gains, of course, not that they don't believe in the company. But you know, you got to hedge risk, and maybe you want to go and finally buy that huge new yacht or something like that.
因此，你可以预期未来几个月将有大量股票供应涌入市场。这会对SpaceX造成很大的阻力。回顾历史数据，我们会发现许多大型公司上市后，即使最终非常成功，在上市后的第一年表现往往并不理想。除此之外，还有消息称会有更多股票被出售。上周，Essent和Supermicro也宣布他们将出售股票。请记得，这已经是发生的事情了。上周，我们讨论了谷歌突然推出了大宗股票发售计划，随后Meta也表示他们计划出售股票。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you can anticipate a flood of equity supply coming online in the coming months. And that's, that's going to be a big headwind for SpaceX. And if you look at how IPOs behave, historically, a lot of times, even the really big companies that eventually become very successful, after their IPO, they don't do that well in the in the first year or so. Now, in addition to that, though, we also have additional news that there's going to be more shares sold. So the past week, we had Essent Supermicro also come out and announce that they're going to be selling stock. Remember, this is something that's already happened, right? Last week, we talked about how Google suddenly had a big at the money offering. And then Meta came out telling everyone they want to sell stocks.
所以，大家都知道这里有点泡沫。所以你要明白，你得试着套现并利用这个机会。Supermicro（SMCI）宣布他们计划出售大约70亿美元的股票，这导致他们的股价大跌。上周，他们的股价下跌了大约30%。对于一家市值原本就不大的公司来说，70亿美元确实是个大数目，所以这对他们的股价产生了很大的影响。不过，展望未来，我认为我们可能会看到其他一些大公司的类似举动。他们可能也会选择出售股票，以利用他们的高股价来筹集资金，从而支持其在人工智能领域的建设和发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So everyone knows there's kind of a bubble here. And so you got to be, you know, you got to try to cash out and take advantage of that. So SMCI said everyone that they were going to sell about $7 billion in equity. And you know, that really tanked their stock. They were down about 30% the past week. Supermicro, of course, $7 billion is a lot for a company whose market cap isn't that large to begin with. So that did so that obviously had a big impact. Going forward, though, I think we could expect maybe other Big Ten companies to come out and sell stock as they tried to raise money capitalize on their high stock prices and raise money to be able to finance what's happening in their AI build out.
再次强调，人工智能的开发本质上是不确定的。我们并不真正知道会有怎样的回报，这项技术能否成功。因此，对于一家公司来说，找到能在一定程度上分担潜在损失的融资方式是很有意义的。如果你在债务市场借款来资助人工智能开发，而人工智能不成功，你仍然需要偿还在债务市场借到的钱。因此，这对一个风险较高的项目来说是相当危险的。但是如果通过发行股票来融资，那么即使股价下跌，那也不是他们的问题。此外，Anthropic和ChatGPT（即OpenAI）也正在筹备上市，这也提供了另一种资金来源。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Again, AI build out is inherently something that's very uncertain. We don't really know what the returns would be, how successful this would be. So it makes a lot of sense for a company to be able to finance that in a way that will share in the potential losses, right? If you borrowed in the debt markets, which some do to finance AI, and the AI is not successful, then you still have to pay back what you borrowed in the debt market. So that's pretty risky for a risky venture. But if you borrow in equity, then, you know, stock prices go down. That's not their problem. And also, of course, in addition, you have new IPOs from Anthropic and from chat GPT, open AI coming online. So another supply as well.
有一张来自彭博的图表，基于美联储的数据，显示股票供应量至今一直在缓慢上涨。而且这还不包括SpaceX的IPO和其他即将推出的项目。如果你看这张图表，你会发现过去几十年里，美国股市中的股票供应量往往在减少，因为公司们更倾向于回购股票而不是发行新股。所以我们现在看到的状况并不常见：公司实际上有净发行股票。如果关注那些大型科技公司，你会发现他们在过去的十年里一直大量回购自己的股票。像苹果、谷歌、亚马逊这样的公司赚了很多钱，并且持续进行股票回购。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there's this nice chart from Bloomberg showing based on Fed data that equity supply so far has been ticking upwards. And that's without counting the SpaceX IPO and all the other stuff that's coming down the pipeline. And if you look at this chart, you can see that over the past few decades, equity supply tends to decrease in the US equity market companies are buying back shares. So rather than issuing new shares. So what we're seeing right now is something that's that's something that's not that common. Companies actually having net issuance. Now, looking at the big tech companies in particular, you can see that they've been big buyers of their own stock over the past past decade, Apple, Google, Amazon, all these guys make a lot of money and they keep buying back stock.
当然，他们这样做的部分原因是为了中和发放给员工的股份。这对他们的股价起到了非常支持的作用。如果他们中的一些公司不再这样做，因为他们需要把资金投入到人工智能上，这意味着支撑他们股价的一个重要支柱正在消失。当然，如果他们决定发行更多股票，那么这将是一个阻力。因此，这一点在未来几个月需要注意。当然，这不是唯一重要的因素，但它是股市中可以观察到的一个非常有趣的变量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Part of that, of course, is to neutralize the share issuance they give to their employees. So that has been very supportive of their stock prices. And if some of them are not doing that anymore, because they need to spend money for AI there, that that means a big pillar of support for their stock prices is going away. And of course, if they decide to issue more stock, then it becomes a headwind. So that's something to keep in mind in the coming months. Again, it's not the only thing that matters. But it is a very interesting variable that you can see that has changed in the equity market.
我们看到很多公司曾经在缩减其流通股数量，而现在它们开始发行更多的股票。至于结果如何，还有待观察。本周是新任主席凯文主持的首次美联储会议，我们将看到结果如何。有传言称，他可能想要改变沟通方式，可能会放弃点阵图。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We were much companies were once shrinking their float. Now that now they're issuing more shares. And that's something that we'll see how that turns out. Now, this coming week is the first Fed meeting for Chair Kevin. And so we'll see how that goes. Rumors suggest that he might want to change his communication style, maybe go away with the dot plot.
我们到时看看他会说些什么。目前的预期是，美联储会改变他们的声明，使默认政策不再明确表示下次政策行动一定会是降息，而是变得更中立、更开放，声明中既可能是降息也可能是加息。这就是会议前的默认立场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll see what he talks about then. The expectation right now is that the Fed change their statement such that their default policy is not signaling that the next policy move would definitely be a cut, but become more neutral, open, have a statement that is open to both cuts and hikes as the next move. So that was the default heading in to the meeting.
但随着伊朗局势的变化，如果这种变化能够持续下去，我认为这真的加强了美联储在面对能源价格上涨时的决策能力。我觉得，由于这些政治发展的影响，出现意外的风险更大。好吧，我们几天后会知道结果，我会回来分享我的看法。到时候再聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But with the change on the Iran front, should that prove durable? I think that really strengthens the hand for people at the Fed to look through the rise in energy prices and such that I think that there is more of a potential for a devilish surprise simply due to these political developments. All right, so we'll find out in a few days and I'll be back to give you my thoughts. Talk to you guys then.