Markets Weekly June 20, 2026
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以下是内容的中文翻译：
这期于6月20日录制的《市场周刊》节目聚焦两大全球性进展：美伊冲突的解决和正在显现的“中国冲击2.0”。
第一个重要的事件是美伊冲突的解决（至少是暂时的），这导致了油价的暴跌。尽管出现了这种去通胀浪潮，全球各国央行预计仍将继续其小幅加息周期。发言人详细阐述了，在几经周折之后，特朗普总统最终在凡尔赛宫达成了一项谅解备忘录和随后的协议。这项协议本质上是美国向伊朗提供大量财政援助，以使其摆脱冲突。总统的动机是防止一场经济灾难——具体而言，他将其与赫伯特·胡佛和美国大萧条相提并论——并避免由于美国战略石油储备处于极低水平以及霍尔木兹海峡可能被关闭而导致油价飙升。
发言人强调，由于全球石油库存低迷，伊朗在此期间拥有最大的谈判筹码。尽管据报道特朗普正与这项协议划清界限，但副总统J.D.万斯已被赋予推广这项协议的任务。稳定担忧来自以色列，该国一直在轰炸黎巴嫩，其总理内塔尼亚胡正寻求一个成功的战争叙事，以应对即将到来的选举。然而，发言人认为和平将得以维持，理由是美国对以色列施加了压力，包括致电内塔尼亚胡的政治对手，以及J.D.万斯发表的强硬公开声明，强调以色列的孤立及其对美国防御的依赖。这一时期可能标志着以色列游说团体在美国影响力的“黄昏”，而伊朗——一个拥有9000万受过教育人口、拥有工业基础并控制霍尔木兹海峡的国家——有望成为海湾地区天然的霸主，甚至可能成为未来美国商品的市场。
第二个主要议题是“中国冲击2.0”。发言人回顾了“中国冲击1.0”，彼时中国加入世贸组织，将数百万制造业工人带入全球经济，导致廉价商品（如纺织品和鞋类）涌入，并导致发达国家商品价格长期通缩，从而提升了全球生活水平。然而，“中国冲击2.0”有所不同。中国已大幅向上游价值链攀升，现在出口高科技产品，如iPhone、电池技术、太阳能电池板和电动汽车（例如比亚迪）。这种先进制造业通常高度自动化，生产世界一流品质的产品。
这一转变主要归因于中国的公共政策，该政策在国内房地产泡沫破裂后，将资源重新导向出口导向型制造业。与“中国冲击1.0”不同，彼时中国的进口与出口同步增长；而在2.0中，出口激增却未能伴随进口的增加，部分原因是由于中国经济疲软。这意味着“中国冲击2.0”威胁到更广泛的西方产业，同时，从进入中国市场中获益的西方公司数量也减少了。美国已采取关税措施予以回应，而欧洲，尤其是德国——其出口导向型经济模式（例如汽车、机械）正受到中国竞争的直接挑战——现在也正在考虑建立自己的关税壁垒。这部分归因于中国的“不公平竞争环境”，包括政府补贴和货币管理，这些因素估计使人民币结构性低估了20-30%。发言人最后指出，这一趋势预示着一个全球化程度降低的世界，重新强调国家主权和制造业实力是国家财富和力量的真正来源，而这正是美国可能已经遗忘的教训。
This "Markets Weekly" episode, recorded on June 20th, focuses on two major global developments: a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the unfolding "China Shock 2.0."
The first significant event is the, at least temporary, resolution of the U.S.-Iran war, which has led to a plummeting of oil prices. Despite this disinflationary wave, central banks globally are still expected to continue their mini-hiking cycles. The speaker details how, after numerous false starts, President Trump finally secured a Memorandum of Understanding and subsequent agreement at Versailles. This deal essentially involves the U.S. providing significant financial aid to Iran to exit the conflict. The president's motivation was to prevent an economic catastrophe, specifically drawing parallels to Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression, and to avoid oil prices skyrocketing due to critically low U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The speaker highlights Iran's maximal leverage during this period due to low global oil stocks. While Trump is reportedly distancing himself from the deal, Vice President J.D. Vance has been tasked with promoting it. Stability concerns arise from Israel, which has been bombing Lebanon and whose Prime Minister Netanyahu seeks a successful war narrative for upcoming elections. However, the speaker believes the peace will hold, citing U.S. pressure on Israel, including calls to Netanyahu's political rivals and strong public statements from J.D. Vance emphasizing Israel's isolation and reliance on U.S. defense. This period could mark a "twilight of the influence of the Israeli lobby" in the U.S., with Iran, a nation of 90 million educated people with an industrial base and control over the Strait of Hormuz, poised to become a natural hegemon in the Gulf, potentially even a future market for U.S. goods.
The second major theme is "China Shock 2.0." The speaker revisits China Shock 1.0, where China's entry into the WTO brought millions of manufacturing workers into the global economy, leading to a flood of cheap goods (like textiles and shoes) and prolonged goods deflation in the developed world, benefiting global living standards. However, China Shock 2.0 is different. China has moved significantly up the value chain, now exporting high-tech goods such as iPhones, battery technology, solar panels, and electric vehicles (e.g., BYD). This advanced manufacturing, often highly automated, produces world-class quality products.
This shift is largely due to Chinese public policy, which redirected resources into export-oriented manufacturing after a domestic property bust. Unlike China Shock 1.0, where Chinese imports grew alongside exports, in 2.0, surging exports are not matched by increased imports, partly due to a weaker Chinese economy. This means China 2.0 threatens a wider array of Western industries, with fewer Western companies benefiting from access to the Chinese market. The U.S. has responded with tariffs, and Europe, particularly Germany, whose export-driven economic model (e.g., cars, machinery) is being directly challenged by Chinese competition, is now considering its own tariff walls. This is partly justified by China's "unlevel playing field," including government subsidies and currency management that keeps the RMB structurally undervalued by an estimated 20-30%. The speaker concludes by noting that this trend points towards a less globalized world, with a renewed emphasis on national sovereignty and manufacturing prowess as the true source of a nation's wealth and power, a lesson the U.S. may have forgotten.
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - Peace in the Middle East
10:22 - China Shock 2.0
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是6月20日，欢迎收看本期的《市场周刊》。上周的大事件当然是凯文主席第一次新闻发布会。我在关于未来指导的播客中对此进行了详细报道，该播客已经上传到频道上。第二大事件是美伊战争达成了至少暂时的解决方案，这使油价大幅下跌。尽管如此，全球的央行预计仍会继续小规模加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is June 20th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week, the big event, of course, was Chair Kevin's first presser. I covered that extensively on a podcast on forward guidance that's been uploaded to the channel. The second biggest event, of course, was a at least temporary resolution to the U.S.-Iran war that has sent oil prices absolutely plummeting. And, despite that, though, central banks across the world are still expected to continue on their mini-hiking cycle.
首先，让我们谈谈中东正在发生的事情，以及我为什么认为这将是一个持久的和平。其次，我们来讨论一个更具主题性的问题，也就是“冲击波2.0”，这正在真正改变世界，并且似乎也在影响欧洲的政策。欧元区现在也在考虑建立自己的关税壁垒。好，我们先从伊朗战争说起。在过去的几个月中，总统一再表示，大家，战争马上就要结束了，战争马上就要结束了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, first, let's talk about what's happening in the Middle East and why I think that it will be a durable peace. And, secondly, let's talk about something a bit more thematic, that is the China Shock 2.0 that is really changing the world and seems to be shaping European policy as well, whereas Euroland is now also considering to erect their own tariff wall. All right, starting with the Iran war. So, over the past few months, we've heard over and over again from the president that, guys, war is going to end soon, war is going to end soon.
其实，我认为自战争的第一周以来，特朗普总统就展现出了管理市场的高超技巧。但在他三十多次宣布战争结束时，这些声明都只是比较虚假的东西。不过上周他宣布与伊朗达成了一项谅解备忘录，随后几天里，居然在凡尔赛宫签署了一项协议。所以，这看起来真的有些不一样了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Actually, I think since the first week of the war, and President Trump has proved to be a master at managing the markets. But over the 30-some times he's declared an end to the war, it was just kind of fake. But last week, and though, he announced he had reached a memorandum of understanding with Iran and, in the following days, actually signed an agreement at Versailles, of all places. So, it seems like something really is different.
从总体上看，这份谅解备忘录基本上是美国给伊朗很多钱以解决冲突。如果你一直在关注这个频道，我早在三月份就非常清楚这将是结果。过去几周，很多人对我说，约瑟夫，你不懂地缘政治，你的知识有缺陷，最好干好自己份内的事。但事实证明，我在地缘政治上还是很在行的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, at a high level, the memorandum of understanding basically is the U.S. giving Iran a lot of money to get out of the conflict. Now, if you've been following this channel, it was crystal clear to me as early as in March that this would be the outcome. Now, over the past few weeks, many people have been like, Joseph, you don't understand geopolitics. You have knowledge gaps. Stay in your lane. But as it turns out, guys, I do geopolitics just fine.
那么，美国为什么会签订这样一个不利的协议呢？总统对此相当坦诚。让我们听听他在法国七国集团记者会上说的话。总统表示，与其可能导致经济大萧条，与其让你们的最喜欢的总统是赫伯特·胡佛，而我一直是不愿成为的一个。从尼克松到其他的总统中，总有一些我不想成为的，但我始终想到的却是赫伯特·胡佛，因为是他导致了大萧条。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, why did the U.S. enter in such an unfavorable deal? Well, the president is pretty candid. Let's listen to what he said at a G7 press conference in France. Rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover, I was always the one I didn't want to be. I wouldn't have preferred Nixon. I wouldn't have preferred, there were plenty I wouldn't prefer, but the one I always thought of, Herbert Hoover, and he caused it.
他同时过快地提高了税收和利率，导致了大萧条。因此，我认为我不会犯那样的错误。我会降低。基本上，总统不想引发经济灾难。赫伯特·胡佛是主持大萧条时期的美国总统。正如我们过去几周讨论的那样，美国一直在大量消耗其战略石油储备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He raised taxes too fast and he raised interest rates too fast all at the same time. And it caused the Great Depression. So I don't think I'll make mistakes like that. I lower. So basically, the president did not want to cause economic catastrophe. President Herbert Hoover was the U.S. president that presided over the Great Depression. As we've been discussing over the past few weeks, the U.S. has been heavily drawing down on its strategic petroleum reserves.
战略石油储备已经接近最低运行水平，一旦低于这个水平，就难以再动用这些储备，从而可能导致油价大幅上涨。甚至有许多美国大型石油公司的首席执行官在媒体上发声，警告白宫和公众这一风险。根据许多估算，这一情况很可能在几周内发生。所以，总统基本上已经没有时间了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The strategic petroleum reserves were reaching a minimal operational level such that when you fell beneath it, you kind of can't draw on it anymore and oil prices could potentially shoot up. You even had many major U.S. oil CEOs basically make the media rounds warning the White House and the public about this. And by many estimates, that would have happened in just a few weeks. So the president basically ran out of time.
他必须设法打开霍尔木兹海峡。即便霍尔木兹海峡打开了，石油也需要几个星期才能离开海峡并到达目的地。而且，位于中东的那些闲置的石油生产设施需要几个月才能重新启动。因此，这一切都是一个滞后过程。现在，芝加哥大学的罗伯特·佩特教授指出，我们正处于一个时间窗口期，伊朗拥有最大的筹码，对吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He had to open up, find some way to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Now, even with the Strait of Hormuz opened, it would take a few weeks for oil to leave the Strait and reach its destination. And it will take a few months for oil production facilities that had been idle in the Middle East to restart. So all this is a lag process. Now, Professor Robert Pate of the University of Chicago is noting that we are at a window in time where Iran has its maximal leverage, right?
由于石油库存较低，打开海峡让油轮通过需要一些时间。因此，在这种情况下，伊朗基本上掌握了主动权。现在，特朗普基本上已经发出信号，试图与这项协议保持距离。这对美国来说显然不是好消息。但我要为总统辩护，过去许多美国总统在不成功的军事行动上加倍或加三倍投入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because oil stocks are low, it takes some time before opening up the Strait to foil to get out. So this is a time where, you know, Iran basically has the cards. Now, Trump basically sent, has been trying to distance himself from this deal. It is obviously not looking good for the U.S. But I want to give credit to the president. Many U.S. presidents in the past have doubled or tripled down on unsuccessful military ventures.
例如，在越南，这反而导致了更大的灾难。但总统确实减小了损失并抽身而出。他当然派遣了J.D. 万斯来为这项协议做代言。J.D. 一直在各处奔走，努力推销这项协议，这是非常困难的工作。总统还开玩笑说，如果这项协议不奏效，J.D. 就会成替罪羊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For example, in Vietnam, and that just led to a bigger disaster. But the president did cut his losses and got out. He sent, of course, J.D. Vance to be the face of this deal. And J.D. has been making the rounds, strongly trying to sell this. Very difficult job. The president also joked that, you know, J.D. will just be the fall guy if this deal doesn't work out.
让我们听听总统的意见。如果这事情成功，那就太好了。把他派过去你就显得非常明智。如果不成功，那就是副总统的问题。我挺喜欢这个想法的。这样的话，如果成功了，我会领功。如果不成功，我就怪罪J.D.。J.D.，你可要小心，他可能会掉头就走，马上离开这里。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's listen to what the president said. If it works out, great. You'll look like a genius for sending him. And if it doesn't work out, it's the vice president. I like that idea, sure. Well, this way, if it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming J.D. You better be careful, J.D. He's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here.
是的，我喜欢这个想法。我认为这是一个好主意。很多人担心这个协议可能不稳定，因为协议的一个重要支柱是在黎巴嫩的停火。对此，我们必须记住，谈判桌上有三方。而以色列是轰炸黎巴嫩的一方，他们不想被这个协议束缚。同时，也要注意以色列将在今年年底举行大选，内塔尼亚胡总理希望能够以一场成功的战争作为竞选资本，而这个协议对他不利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, I like that idea. I think it's a good idea. So many people are concerned that, you know, this deal might not be stable because part of the pillars of the deal is a ceasefire in Lebanon. And that's where we have to remember that there are three people at this table. And Israel is the party that has been bombing Lebanon. And, you know, they don't want to be bound by this agreement. Now, also remember that there are upcoming elections in Israel towards the end of this year. And Prime Minister Netanyahu really wants to be able to run on a successful war, and this would not help him.
在我们今天录制的时候，似乎有新闻报道说，由于以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩，霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭。这使得停火协议很难维持下去，很多人对此抱有理解的怀疑态度。《华盛顿邮报》的一篇报道引用了美国情报，称以色列可能会试图破坏停火。不过，我也注意到，美国似乎在利用其影响力来试图控制以色列的行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So as we're recording today, it seems like there's a headline saying that the Shred of Hormuz is again closed because Israel continued to bomb Lebanon. But now this is what makes it very difficult for the ceasefire to hold. And many people are understandably skeptical. There's actually a report in the Washington Post citing U.S. intelligence saying that the Israelis will try to undermine the ceasefire. But I also note, though, that it seems like the U.S. is pressing their leverage to try to control Israel.
我看到美国政界人士表现出的决心让我觉得这件事至少能持续几个月。总统报告中提到打电话给内塔尼亚胡总理的政治对手，威胁当然就是如果内塔尼亚胡不按规矩办事，特朗普可能会支持他的政治对手。这对内塔尼亚胡来说是不利的。但更重要的是，副总统J.D. Vance在美以关系上发表了一些非常强烈的公开评论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so that determination that I see coming from U.S. politicians is what makes me think that this is actually something that will hold at least for a few months. So you have the president reports suggesting making calls to the political rivals of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the threat being, of course, is that if Bibi does not behave, Trump will endorse one of his political rivals. And that is not good for Bibi. But more importantly, though, you have Vice President J.D. Vance making some very strong public comments on the U.S.-Israeli relationship.
在他的公开评论中，他提到一个可能让不太关注美国政治的人感到意外的观点，这一观点对于一位共和党政客来说是非常革命性的。他基本上是在说，从全球范围来看，美国实际上是你唯一的朋友。以色列通过在加沙的行动让自己陷入了孤立。而且，J.D. Vance 还非常坦率地表示，以色列的大部分防御是由美国提供的，所以没有美国的支持，你真的无法保护自己。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in his public comments, and this is something that if you don't follow U.S. politics, you may not realize, it is something that is truly revolutionary coming from a Republican politician that basically saying that, you know, if you look throughout the world, the U.S. is basically your only friend. Israel has really isolated itself with its actions in Gaza. And also J.D. Vance is very openly saying that, you know, most of the defense in Israel is provided by the U.S. So without the U.S., you really can't defend yourself.
这就像是一个美国正在运用的重要杠杆点。这让我觉得，这次停火可能会保持下去。老实说，这次伊朗战争可能标志着以色列游说团体在美国影响力的逐渐减弱。这些重大变化可能会在未来几十年里影响美国的中东政策。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that is a significant leverage point that it seems like the U.S. is exercising. And so that tells me that, yeah, this is this is a ceasefire that is probably going to hold. And honestly, it seems like maybe the Iran war is going to mark the twilight of the influence of the Israeli lobby in the U.S. So this is some big changes that I think are going to ripple through U.S. Middle Eastern policy for decades to come.
如果你看看伊朗这个国家，他们有九千万人口，教育水平高且聪明。他们拥有工业基础，实际上一年可以生产一百万辆汽车。这和沙特阿拉伯或卡塔尔这种主要依靠石油的国家完全不同。此外，伊朗还控制着霍尔木兹海峡，具备地缘政治影响力和强大的军事力量。因此，将伊朗推向中国的势力范围并不符合美国的利益。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you look at Iran as a country, they have 90 million people, highly educated, smart people. They have an industrial base. They can actually make a million cars a year. Right. That is very different from, say, Saudi Arabia or Qatar, which are really just giant gas stations. So and of course, Iran controls straight up Hormuz. So they have a geopolitical power and a formidable military. There is kind of it's not in the U.S.'s interest to push them into the Chinese sphere of influence.
不一定非要成为最好的朋友，但你知道，伊朗是海湾地区的自然霸主。至少，与他们保持一种不算太坏的关系是有好处的。对于美国来说，保持糟糕的关系并没有什么好处，对全球经济也没有益处。最终，伊朗可能会成为美国商品的市场。在谅解备忘录中，其中一个条款就是要求释放给伊朗的资金要用于购买美国商品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's not don't have to be best friends. But, you know, Iran is the natural hegemon of the Gulf. And it would be good to have at least, you know, not terrible relationships with them. There's really no doesn't benefit the U.S., doesn't benefit the global economy for that. And eventually, maybe Iran would have a market, be a market for U.S. goods in the memorandum of understanding. One of the stipulations is that the money released to Iran be spent on U.S. goods.
所以，你知道，这也许是一个开始，一个非常非常小的开始。现在市场也在接受这一和平协议。如果你看看现货原油价格，它们已经大幅下跌。所以你可以看到现货布伦特原油价格一直在下降。这指的不是期货，而是今天交易的原油。这是一个巨大的通缩浪潮，正在席卷全球经济。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, that is maybe a beginning, a very, very small beginning. Now, the market is also buying into this peace agreement as well. If you look at spot oil prices, they've absolutely plummeted. So you can see spot Brent all the way down. This is not futures. This is oil that's traded today. So this is a large, large disinflationary wave that is sweeping through the global economy.
尽管如此，如果你看看市场，它们仍然在预计一个持续的小幅加息周期。不久前，欧洲央行加息，上周日本央行也加息了。市场预计它们将继续加息。市场还预计美联储会继续加息。而且，市场也预计其他央行如韩国央行实际上也可能加息几次。韩国可能比较特殊，因为你可以看到，韩国股市今年的成本几乎翻了一番。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, notwithstanding that, though, if you look at markets, they're still pricing in an ongoing mini rate hiking cycle. We had the ECB hike not too long ago, we had the Bank of Japan hike last week. The market expects them to continue to hike. Market expects the Fed to continue to hike. And the market also expects the other banks like the Bank of Korea to also actually hike a few times. Korea may be special because, as you can see, the cost be literally doubled this year.
他们在那边也有一些财务稳定方面的担忧。因此，你处于一种有趣的困境：市场因为油价飙升而开始预期加息。然而，现在油价下降，市场实际上并没有真正取消这些加息预期。我认为随着市场对当前局势的停火更有信心，可能会在接下来的几个月里缓解这种紧张局面，至少在中期选举前是这样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So they have some financial stability concerns over there as well. So you're kind of an interesting kind of predicament where the market began to price in rate hikes because oil prices surged. And now that oil prices are coming down, the market is actually not really taking away those hikes. So I think that might be some tension that might be resolved, perhaps in the coming months, as the market becomes more comfortable that this is a durable ceasefire, at least for the midterms.
我认为，显然油价对美国选民来说非常重要。但我们会看到，这似乎是一个非常积极的发展，不仅对美国，对中东和全球经济也是如此。 其次，我想谈谈“中国冲击2.0”。首先，让我们回顾一下。如果你看看这张图表，你就能看到什么是“中国冲击1.0”和“2.0”。基本上，几十年前，中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）时，有字面意义上的几亿人加入了全球经济，他们主要专注于制造业。通常是一些便宜的东西，比如鞋子、衣服之类的东西。随着中国加入全球经济，商品在全球经济中有了巨大的增多，你可以从中国出口的增加中看到这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'd say, obviously, oil prices are very important to the U.S. voter. But we'll see, it seems like this is a very positive development, not just for the U.S., but for the Middle East and the global economy. All right, the second thing that I want to talk about is the China shock 2.0. So first, let's review a little bit. So if you look at this chart, you can see what the China shock 1.0 and 2.0 are. Basically, a few decades ago, as China entered the WTO, you had literally a few hundred million people. Basically joined the global economy and those people specialized in manufacturing, right? So a lot of times it was just kind of cheap stuff like shoes, like clothing and stuff like that. And as China entered in the global economy, there has a tremendous increase of goods into the global economy. And you can see that in the rise of Chinese exports.
现在，这很好地解释了为什么在一段时间里，实际上是几十年间，整个发达国家都经历了低通胀现象。低通胀主要是因为商品价格的下降。发达国家从中国进口了许多低成本的商品，这使得通胀率保持在较低水平。这就像一些神奇的货币政策，但其实很愚蠢。由于大量真实商品流入市场，价格被压低，商品价格出现了通缩，这对全球经济显然带来了好处。这让全球人民能够更容易地获得低价商品，提高了他们的生活水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that goes a long way to explaining why for a period of time, for a few decades, actually, there was low inflation throughout the developed world. Now, low inflation was largely due to deflation in goods. They were importing low-cost goods from China that was keeping inflation low. And that's some, like, magical monetary policy stuff, man. That's so stupid. So you have a flood of real goods coming into the economy that pushes prices down, lets the goods deflation, and so that benefited the global economy significantly, right? That increased the living standards of everyone in the world as they had more access to lower-cost goods.
在那时，人们普遍认为中国制造的产品不仅价格便宜，质量也不高。很多人觉得这些东西质量不好。确实，当时很多产品确实是便宜的塑料玩具之类的。不过，在过去的几十年里，中国发生了巨大变化，尤其是在技术方面取得了很大进步。如果你看看今天中国出口的产品，就会发现不再是塑料小饰品和纺织品了。很多这样的产品已经转移到了其他地方，比如越南。而中国现在出口的主要是高科技产品，比如iPhone、电池技术、太阳能电池板和电动汽车。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, at that time, people would widely consider Chinese-made goods to be cheap, not just in price, but in quality as well. It was perceived to be stuff that was just not good quality. And, indeed, a lot of the stuff was, you know, like cheap plastic toys and so forth. But over the past few decades, China has really changed a lot and really advanced a lot in its technology. If you look at what China exports today, it's, you know, not so much plastic trinkets and textiles. A lot of that stuff has gone to places like Vietnam, but it is high-tech goods like iPhones, like battery technology, like solar panels, like electric cars.
他们在价值链上有了显著提升，不仅拥有世界一流的制造能力。很多人称他们的工厂为“无灯工厂”，因为工厂实现了高度自动化，几乎无需人工操作，所以不需要开灯。此外，产品的质量也大幅提高。如果你有一台电脑，很多零部件可能都是中国制造的。这就是人们所说的“中国冲击2.0”。这种制造业的提升很大程度上得益于公共政策。正如大家所知，中国曾经经历过严重的房地产衰退，对经济增长产生了很大的影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So they've moved up significantly in the value chain, whereas now not only do they have world-class manufacturing. Many people call them no lights-out manufacturing facilities because it's so automated that there are no lights on because there are no people in there. But also, the quality of the goods has risen a lot. If you have a computer, many of the components will be made in China. So that's what people think of as the China Shock 2.0. Now, a large part of this boost in manufacturing is due to public policy. So as many of you know, in China, there was a huge property bust that really impacted Chinese growth.
因此，政府开始投入资源建设更具竞争力的制造业出口部门。这样的成功可以从中国电动汽车的激增中看出。如果你在谷歌上查看比亚迪电动汽车的评论，尽管在美国看不到它们，但在其他国家可以看到。各国汽车评测者普遍认为这是一款非常好、高质量的汽车。现在，如果你再次查看有中国冲击1.0和2.0的图表，你会注意到在中国冲击1.0中，中国的出口增长了，但进口也增加了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the government began to devote resources into building out an even more competitive manufacturing export sector. And the success of that can be seen in the surge in Chinese electric cars. And if you look at reviews on Google, you'll see that reviews of BYD electric cars, although you can't see them in the U.S., they are, you can see them in other countries. And the car reviewers universally tell you that it is a very good, high-quality car. Now, if you look at this chart again with the China Shock 1.0 and 2.0, you'll notice that in the China Shock 1.0, Chinese exports increased, but their imports increased as well.
在美国、欧元区等地，他们接收了大量低成本的中国商品，这导致许多本国行业破产。但与此同时，这也刺激了一些出口导向型产业的发展，使得这个问题在政治上变得更加复杂。因为它在帮助某些行业的同时，也在伤害其他行业。所以，有些人感到高兴，因为中国开放了市场，让他们可以向中国销售，比如梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车或者路易威登包。因此，这并不是一件绝对好或坏的事情。但是，当我们进入“中国冲击2.0”阶段时，可以看到尽管中国的出口继续激增，但中国的进口几乎没有增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in the U.S. and Euro land and so forth, they were receiving a lot of lower-cost Chinese goods, and that was bankrupting a lot of industries in their countries. But at the same time, it was a boost to some of their export-oriented industries, such that it was a more politically complicated problem. It was helping some industries and hurting others. So some people were happy that the Chinese opened up their markets so that they could sell, you know, let's say Mercedes, Mercedes or Louis Vuitton bags into China. So it wasn't an unambiguously good or bad thing. But as you move to China Shock 2.0, you can see that as Chinese exports have continued to surge, their imports really haven't grown.
这在一定程度上是因为中国的经济表现不佳。所以在"中国冲击2.0"中，情况是中国正提升产业链的价值，并对西方更多行业构成威胁。同时，能够向中国出口的西方公司也变少了，这导致更多的政治困难。在美国，这自然导致了美中贸易战，包括征收关税等措施。但这对欧洲似乎也产生了影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that is in part because the economy in China isn't doing that well. So what's been happening in China Shock 2.0 is that you have the Chinese moving up the value chain and threatening a wider range of industries in the West. And you have fewer Western companies benefiting by being able to export into China, and that is causing more political difficulties. In the U.S., that's, of course, led to the U.S.-China trade war with tariffs and so forth. But it seems to be impacting Europe as well.
现在，特别是当我们观察像德国这样的国家时，我们会注意到，德国近年来的经济增长并不是特别出色。这其中有很多原因，当然，其中一部分是由于乌克兰战争导致能源成本上升，还有与美国的贸易战。但如果将德国的表现与其他欧洲国家相比，它的表现仍然不算好。这与德国作为一个出口强国的商业模式有关。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, in particular, when we look at a country like Germany, we'll notice that Germany, German growth hasn't been all that great over the past few years. Now, there's a lot of reasons for that. Part of it, of course, you have the Ukraine war that's driven up energy costs. You have a trade war with the U.S. But when you look at the performance of Germany compared to other European countries, it's still not that good. And that has to do with the business model that Germany had as an exporting powerhouse.
我们都知道，德国制造的汽车质量很高，尤其是那些出口到全世界的豪华汽车。不过，除了汽车之外，德国在其他领域也有很强的实力。他们在机械和机床等领域也是世界领先者，并将这些产品出口到全球。德国的商业模式有点像中国，都是以成为出口大国为目标。但根据Brad Sesser和Sander的一篇优秀论文分析，德国近年来经济增长不佳的一个重要原因是他们的出口对经济增长的贡献在下降。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we all know Germany, for example, makes really good cars, very fancy cars that they export throughout the world. But in addition to that, though, they also do all sorts of other stuff. They are a world leader in machinery, machine tools, and so forth, and they would export that throughout the world. Their business model is kind of like China's, to be an exporting superpower. But according to this paper, a very good paper by Brad Sesser and Sander, so you can see that a big reason, according to their analysis, why German growth hasn't been good over the past few years is because German exports have been declining in their contribution to growth.
所以，核心的德国经济出口模式现在运作得不如预期。当前出现的情况是，随着中国在价值链上的提升，他们正在威胁德国的商业模式。看看德国设备出口的这张图表，可以看到他们曾经向全世界出口设备，但现在已经大幅下滑。这是中国竞争力上升的结果。一个很好的例子就是中国的汽车产业。过去几年，中国汽车的出口数量急剧增加，而德国汽车的出口则基本停滞不前。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the very core German economic export model is not working as well as it should. So what seems to be happening now is that as Chinese have moved up the value chain, they are threatening the German business model. Now, looking at this chart of German equipment exporting, you can see that they used to export equipment all throughout the world, but that has gone way downhill. That is Chinese competition stepping up. Now, a good example of this, of course, is just looking at the Chinese car industry. You can see that over the past few years, the number of Chinese cars being exported has absolutely surged, whereas, say, car exports for Germany have basically plateaued.
所以，现在这个情况是，作为一个国家，你的商业模式基本上正在被中国超越。而且，当然，欧元区没有像人工智能这样的东西，这对美国市场和经济造成了巨大的推动。因此，作为一个国家或地区，他们面临着巨大的问题。现在，他们正在考虑的措施之一就是建立类似的政策，设立关税壁垒，以 محاولة使他们自己的商品在与进口商品相比时更具竞争力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you're in a situation where, as a country, your business model is basically being overtaken by China. And also, of course, Euroland doesn't have stuff like AI, which has been causing the U.S. market, U.S. economy to having this big build out and so forth. So as a country, as a region, they have big problems. And one of the things that they're considering, actually, is to do something similar, basically to erect a tariff wall to try to make their own goods a bit more competitive relative to imports.
现在，这种做法有意义的一个原因是，中国有许多政策在支持出口的繁荣，使得竞争环境并不完全公平。常见的措施包括政府提供补贴贷款等各种手段，旨在推动他们的出口行业发展，这是经济增长和就业的主要来源。但从金融角度来看，他们也在管理自己的货币。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, one reason that this would make sense is that there's a lot of Chinese policy that is supporting the export boom in China such that the playing field is not completely level. Now, standard things would go from, like, you know, government subsidized loans and so forth and all sorts of stuff in China to try to boost their exporting industry, which is a major creator of growth and jobs. But also from a financial perspective, they also are, I guess, managing their currency.
理论上来说，如果有一个像中国这样的国家，每年通过出口大量商品赚取大量欧元和美元，实现1万亿美元的贸易顺差，我们可以预期该国的货币会逐渐升值。也就是说，作为一名中国制造商，你赚到的是欧元，然后把这些欧元兑换成人民币，从而导致人民币升值。这样一来，你的产品在外国市场上就会变得更贵，从而可能使市场趋于平衡。然而，中国政府在管理货币时，使得人民币处于结构性低估的状态。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in theory, in theory, if you had a country like China who keeps selling a lot of stuff and earning a lot of euros, earning a lot of dollars, trade surplus to tune of $1 trillion a year, you would expect their currency to gradually strengthen. Right. So you you're a Chinese manufacturer, you are earning euros and then you sell those euros for RMB, RMB appreciates. And that would naturally make your products more expensive to foreign markets. And so maybe equilibrate the market a bit. But the Chinese government is, of course, managing the currency such that the Chinese currency is structurally undervalued.
有些人估计可能低估了20%或30%。当然，他们有万亿美元的贸易顺差。按理说，他们的货币应该比现在强得多。这可能是市场无法达到平衡的部分原因。中国继续保持巨大的顺差。如果政府政策让市场力量难以发挥作用，那么相应地，美国也采用了关税政策作为回应。而在欧洲，似乎也可能会采取关税措施。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And some people estimate maybe 20 or 30 percent undervalued. Of course, they have a trillion dollar surplus. Their currency should be much stronger than it is today. And that could be part of the reason why that the market is unable to equilibrate. Chinese continue to have a great surplus. And if you have government policy kind of making market forces difficult to work, then the response, of course, is to also have a similar government policy in the US that was tariffs. And it looks like possibly in Europe that may be tariffs as well.
这就是一种正在持续发展的趋势。而我们可能会再次走向一个全球化程度较低的世界，这个世界更强调国家主权。不过，我也要指出，过去几十年来我们的生活水平提高的一个重要原因是我们能够获得这些便宜的进口商品。高质量且价格低廉的商品提升了我们的生活水平。虽然这对一些行业，以及国家安全来说并不是一件好事，因为我们依赖于其他国家和外国港口。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's something that is continuing to play out. And we could have, again, another move towards a world that is a bit less globalized where there is more of an emphasis on just national sovereignty. Now, I also note, though, a big reason why that our living standards have improved over the past few decades is because we have access to all these cheap, cheaper, lower cost imports, right? High quality stuff that's lower cost. So it hasn't been a bad thing to your living standards, although it has been to, let's say, some industries and also, of course, your, I guess, national security because you're dependent upon other people, foreign ports.
请记住，很久以前，英国曾是世界制造业的超级大国，那时候正值工业革命等等。当然，英国也因此成为了真正的超级大国，统治着世界。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, recall that once upon a time, Britain was the world's manufacturing superpower with the Industrial Revolution and all that. And, of course, Britain became a proper superpower and ruled the world.
从前，美国是一个制造业超级大国，支持并大量生产枪支和日用品，赢得战争，并最终也成为了世界超级大国。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And once upon a time, the US was a manufacturing superpower supporting, of course, churning out guns and butter, winning wars, and, of course, ultimately became the world's superpower as well.
你知道，一个国家的财富是指其生产商品和服务的能力。这并不像股市有多高，那只是电脑屏幕上的数字。真正的财富是实际存在的商品和服务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, the wealth of a country, it's the country's ability to produce goods and services. It's not like how high your stock market is. That's just numbers in a computer screen, right? Wealth is real goods and services.
因此，成为制造业超级大国使得中国可以每天生产数千枚导弹，以展示实力并提高人民的生活水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So being able to be a manufacturing superpower is what lets you to produce missiles like a thousand a day in China to project force and to raise the living standards of your people.
这实际上是我认为美国已经忘记的东西。好了，这就是今天的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听，下周再与大家见面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that actually is something that I think that the US has forgot. All right. So that's all prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in and talk to you all next week.