Episode 56: Gavin Baker - Managing Partner of Atreides Management
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摘要
This week on Generating Alpha, I sat down with Gavin Baker, founder and CIO of Atreides Management, one of the most respected technology-focused investment firms in the market today.
Gavin grew up in Houston, Texas, the son of two attorneys, with an early obsession with history, books, and games of skill and chance. He arrived at investing almost by accident — a college internship at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette introduced him to equity research, and he never looked back. After graduating from Dartmouth, he joined Fidelity Investments, where he would spend over a decade covering semiconductors, pharma, telecom, and retail before rising to manage the $17 billion OTC fund.
It was at Fidelity where Gavin developed the convictions that would define his career. As a young semiconductor analyst, he was among the first to identify the inventory buildup that preceded the dot-com crash. He built early, high-conviction positions in NVIDIA and Tesla, and was an early institutional investor in SpaceX. After leaving Fidelity, he founded Atreides Management, where he has continued to focus on deep tech, semiconductors, and the infrastructure underpinning artificial intelligence.
In our conversation, we explored Gavin's unlikely path from aspiring rock climber to one of the sharpest technology investors of his generation, the frameworks he built covering commodities and semiconductors early in his career, what makes Jensen Huang and Elon Musk generationally exceptional, how he thinks about the AI buildout relative to every prior technology cycle, the psychology of navigating drawdowns, and the advice he gives to young investors starting out today.
It's a rare look inside one of the most rigorous and historically grounded investment minds in public markets — and a masterclass in finding conviction at the earliest stages of transformative technology.
This was filmed in February 2026
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中英文字稿 
在今天的《Generating Alpha》节目中，我与Gavin Baker进行了交流。他是Atreides Management公司的管理合伙人和首席信息官，该公司是华尔街最受尊敬的科技投资者之一。在创立Atreides之前，Gavin在富达（Fidelity）工作了近二十年，期间他管理着170亿美元的旗舰场外交易投资组合，并帮助富达成为NVIDIA和Tesla这两家公司最大的机构持有者之一，早在这两家公司成为这一代标志性企业之前。如今，Gavin被广泛认为是人工智能投资领域的顶尖专家之一。很少有人比他更深入地思考过人工智能对市场、估值和整体经济的复合影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On today's episode of Generating Alpha, I sit down with Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO with Atreides Management, one of the most respected technology investors on Wall Street. Before founding Atreides, Gavin spent nearly two decades at Fidelity, where he managed the flagship $17 billion OTC portfolio and helped make Fidelity one of the largest institutional holders of both NVIDIA and Tesla, long before either became the defining stories of this generation. Today, Gavin is widely regarded as one of the foremost experts on AI investing. Few people have felt longer or harder about the compounding effects of AI on markets, valuations, and the broader economy.
这场对话不仅仅涉及人工智能。加文深入探讨了成为一名优秀投资者的真正要素，包括所需的心态、纪律以及在市场逆境时坚持信念的情感力量。我们探讨了他在职业生涯中如何应对市场低迷，以及那些能够在波动中生存下来的投资者与那些被淘汰的投资者之间的区别。可以将此看作是关于人工智能、市场以及投资技艺本身的大师课。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This conversation goes beyond AI. Gavin opens up about what it actually takes to be a great investor, the mindset, the discipline, and the emotional fortitude required to hold conviction when markets turn against you. We get into how he's navigated downturns throughout his career and what separates investors who survive volatility from those who get washed out. Consider this your masterclass, in AI, in markets, and in the craft of investing itself.
希望你喜欢我与加文·贝克的对话。如果你喜欢这次交流，我恳请你订阅我的YouTube频道，在Spotify上给这个播客打五星，并分享给你认为可能会喜欢的朋友和家人。我非常感激。谢谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I hope you enjoy my conversation with Gavin Baker. If you enjoy this conversation, I urge you to please subscribe to the YouTube channel, rate this podcast five stars on Spotify, and share it to any friends and family who you think might find it valuable. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
感谢你加入我，Gavin。我非常感激。能来到这里我也很兴奋，Amir，我很佩服你的努力。我很感激。我知道很多人想让你谈谈人工智能、基于半导体的数据中心，但在此之前，我想忠于我播客的初衷，从头开始。了解一下Gavin Baker的背景，是什么造就了今天的你。所以，我想先从你的成长经历开始，说说你成长的环境，还有你的正规教育，这一切是如何影响你的？希望能听到一些背景故事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thanks for joining me, Gavin. I really appreciate it. Really excited to be here, Amir, and I have a lot of admiration for the hustle, man. I appreciate it. Well, I know a lot of people want you to talk about AI, semiconductors-based data centers, but before that, I want to stay true to the roots of my podcast and start at the beginning. Kind of get to know who Gavin Baker is, what made you the person you are today. So, I want to start off, tell me about growing up, what that environment was like, your formal education, how did all that shape you? Would love some background.
我在德克萨斯州长大，这对我的个性影响很大。我的父母非常鼓励和支持我的各项兴趣。在我很小的时候，我就开始喜欢那些关于古代历史的插图书籍，比如关于腓尼基人、以色列人、埃及人、古希腊人和古罗马人的书。我一直对历史充满兴趣。我的父母都是律师，所以我有一个相对幸运的成长环境。我儿时最美好的回忆之一就是我们每月大约去三次书店，我在那里的购书预算可以是无限的，我们可能会在那里待上好几个小时。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, I grew up in Texas, which I think has shaped a lot of who I am. My parents kind of really encouraged me and indulged me in all of my interests. And some of my earliest memories are loving kind of illustrated books about ancient history, like the Phoenicians, the Israelites, the Egyptians, the ancient Greeks, ancient Romans. And I've had a lifelong interest in history, you know, my parents were both attorneys. Um, so I had a, a, a fortunate upbringing and, you know, some of my other fondest memories from my childhood is we would go to a, uh, bookstore probably three times a month and I had an unlimited book budget and we might spend hours there.
嗯，我觉得这对我来说也很重要。可能是在我十几岁的时候，第一次有个家庭晚餐，我们外出就餐，而我没有带书在饭桌上看。你知道吗，我父母总是说我会问这是一个需要带一本书、两本书还是三本书的晚餐。我想那时候我看的书都不太长。我对我的父母心存感激。我童年的另一部分是在德克萨斯丘陵地区的祖父母家度过大部分的夏天，那段时光真的很美好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and I think that was, that was, that was also important to me. I would, it was probably, I was probably in my teens the first time there was a family dinner, um, that we went out to and I did not bring a book to read at the dinner. Um, you know, my parents would always say that, um, that, you know, I would ask, is this a one book dinner or a two book dinner or a three book dinner? Um, I guess I wasn't reading very long books. Um, and so I have a lot of gratitude to my parents. The other part of my childhood was I would spend, uh, most of the summer at my grandparents' house in the Texas Hill Country, which was really amazing.
我父母可能会在那八周的时间里陪我两到两个半星期。然后我和我的表兄弟们待在一起。我爸爸的家族很大。所以我和我的所有表兄弟们在一起。我们睡在有纱窗的门廊上，基本上可以随心所欲地玩。比如说，可以去爬山、在马路对面的山丘散步，或者寻找箭头。这是当时特别流行的一件事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And my parents, maybe if I was there for eight weeks, they'd be there for two to two and a half weeks of that time. And then I was there with all of my cousins. My dad had a big family. So I'd be there with all of my cousins. We slept on a screened in porch and just kind of, you know, was encouraged, just do whatever I wanted, you know, go, um, you know, go hike up, you know, hike in the hills or walk around the hills across the road and look for, um, arrowheads. That was a big thing.
去钓鱼吧。那是一段非常自由自在的童年时光，我所有的表兄弟姐妹都在那里。我的叔叔阿姨们也总是在身边，很明显他们达成了一种协议，就是我祖父母从来不会单独照看十个小孩，所以至少会有一对叔叔阿姨值班，有时候更多。而且，我祖父真的很鼓励我读书，我有点失落，因为他并没有像对其他人那样鼓励我去打猎和钓鱼。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, go fishing. It was, it was a very free range childhood and all my cousins were there. And then they're always, um, my aunts and uncles around, there's clearly some sort of deal that, uh, you know, you know, the, my grandparents would never be alone with like 10 little kids. So kind of like one set, at least one set of aunts and uncles were always on duty and sometimes more. Um, and then my grandfather really also encouraged me to read, you know, I was, I was hurt because he didn't, um, like he didn't, he wasn't as encouraging of me hunting and fishing, um, maybe as he was with, with others.
嗯，我就是想去做那个事情，你知道，所以我做了很多这样的事情。但是他总是说，像这样，知道吗，加文，如果你喜欢那本书，随时可以来家里。我奶奶我们叫她Nottie。我对那段时光印象最深的是大概下午两三点的时候。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and I wanted to do that, you know, so I, so I did, did a lot of that, but he was just always like, you know, Gavin, you know, if you, if you, if you're loving that book, feel free to like, you know, hang out at the house. We called my grandmother Nottie. Um, a signature memory from those days is probably at like two or 3 PM.
嗯，Nottie总是对我祖父说，也就是我们称作Popo的人，说“David，我差不多准备好来一杯我的第一杯琴汤力了。”我知道这每天都是下午发生的事情，我当时并没多想，但回想起来，那段时光真的很美好。晚上就守着，看到犰狳在挖洞，所以会和我祖父彻夜不眠，我们还会拿着高能步枪，虽然我觉得我的步枪没那么厉害。那是一个不一样的童年。我也特别喜欢玩技巧和运气的游戏，比如Stratego、国际象棋，还有后来在大学玩的扑克。虽然在成年后，我打扑克的次数最多也就两三次。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, Nottie would always say, uh, to my grandfather, uh, we called Popo, uh, David, I'm about ready for my first gin and tonic. And I, and I like, I just knew that that happened every afternoon. I didn't think anything of it, but, um, yeah, that was great. Like staying up, you know, there's an armadillo digging holes. And so, you know, would stay up all night with my grandfather and, you know, we'd have like a high powered rifle. Um, although I'm sure mine wasn't that high powered, but it was, it was a different, it was a different childhood. And then also always loved games of skill and chance. Um, you know, Stratego, chess, um, later poker, poker in college. Um, although I haven't really, I think I've played poker at most twice in my adult life. Um, maybe three times.
嗯，是的。所以我从小就是这样长大的。我不是一个好学生，更准确地说，我对学习有些无所谓。对于不感兴趣的事情，我很难全力以赴，而对其他事情我则很投入。例如，在上高中之前，《龙与地下城》是我特别喜欢的一个活动。可以说我有一个相对自由的智力成长环境，但在学习上并不是特别用心的学生。然后，最终我在1999年到了富达，负责研究半导体行业，正好赶上互联网泡沫的高潮和破裂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, yeah. And so that's kind of how I grew up and I was, I was not a, I was not a good student. I was kind of an indifferent, um, student. Um, I wasn't as engaged. Um, I found it hard to work hard on things that did not interest me and I was very engaged in other things. Um, yeah. Um, like Dungeons and Dragons was a big thing for me, um, before high school. Um, but yeah, so I had a very, I would say intellectual free range childhood, but was a relatively indifferent student. And you eventually go end up at fidelity. Um, if I'm correct in 99, um, covering semiconductors right during the time of the.com bubble peaking and then crashing.
嗯，然后最终你晋升到了管理170亿美元的场外交易基金。那个时期非常有趣。我想了解一下，首先，互联网泡沫时期是如何塑造你的投资框架的。然后在那段时间里，有哪些关键决策或时刻对你在富达的影响最大。好的。首先，富达是一个很棒的地方。如果你的听众中有年轻投资者的话，我希望有一些人是这样的，富达是一个学习如何成为投资者的绝佳之地，我认为没有比这更好的地方了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and then eventually you rise to the ranks and manage the $17 billion OTC fund. Very interesting in that period. Tell me about like, I'm interested in first, how that kind of period of.com bubble shapes your investment framework. And then over time, the key decisions or key moments that really kind of impacted you the most during that time in fidelity. Sure. Um, so first fidelity is an amazing place. If you were, you know, I assume hopefully some of your audience is young investors. If you were looking for a place to learn how to be an investor, I just don't think there is a better place than fidelity.
嗯，伟大的地方在于，我认为成为一个成功的投资者，全在于找到一个适合自己独特情感特质的投资哲学和流程，这样你就可以理性地面对错误。每个人的情况都不同。几乎每个投资者开始时都以为自己发现了独特的东西，因为他们读了本杰明·格雷厄姆和沃伦·巴菲特，甚至可能还读了菲利普·费雪的书。事实上，地球上的每个人都已多次读过这些东西。因此，大多数人都是以价值投资者的身份开始的，但这可能不是正确的哲学和流程。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, because the great thing is you, um, I think being a successful investor is all about finding an investment philosophy and process that fits with your own unique, emotional makeup, such that you can be rational and wrong. Um, and it's different for everyone. And, you know, almost every investor starts out, you know, thinking, you know, they've read Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett and you know, maybe, maybe Philip Fisher, and that they've discovered something unique. And it's like, everybody at planet earth has read all that stuff many times. Um, and so most people come in as a value investor, but that's maybe not the right philosophy process.
你知道，对于很多人来说，尤其是在富达投资公司工作的那些人，你会接触到各种各样类型的投资者。你会看到人们用非常不同的理念、流程和方法来投资，并实现成功。作为分析师，你必须在某种程度上学习每个投资经理（PM）的思维方式，因为你的工作就是为所有的投资经理提供服务并帮助他们。所以，富达投资公司是一个非常了不起的地方，也是开始你职业生涯的绝佳地点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, for a lot of people, it is for some people and a fidelity, you were exposed to every kind of investor imaginable. And you see people, um, succeeding as investors with their very different philosophies, very different processes, very different approaches. And as an analyst, you have to kind of, at some level, learn how each of those PMs think, because your job is to service all of the PMs and help them. Um, so fidelity is an incredible place, um, period. And it is an incredible place to begin your career.
在大学期间，我感到非常幸运。我从未想过要成为一名投资者，攀岩和滑雪是我生活中最重要的事情，就像是在攀岩中度过了我的大学时光。嗯，我的计划是在大学毕业后，生活在一个非常便宜的、带小棚的旧货车后面，在春秋季节全职攀岩，那段时间我会尝试成为一名摄影师，并写下下一部伟大的美国小说。然后冬天在滑雪行业工作，夏天在河流相关的行业工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I feel so lucky during college. It never occurred to me that I wanted to be investor rock climbing and skiing were the most important things in my life, kind of like rock climbed my way through college. Um, and my plan was to graduate from college, um, live out of the back of like a very cheap, um, you know, like old pickup truck that put a cab on climb full time in the shoulder seasons, during which time I try and be a photographer and write the next great American novel, and then kind of work, um, and ski industry, um, in the winters and the kind of river industry in the summers.
嗯，那是我的计划。然后我父母就说，Gavin，其实他们对我只有两个要求。第一是我大一在达特茅斯时不能加入兄弟会。他们说，Gavin，这听起来像是个很有趣的主意。但请把学费支票寄到哪里告诉我们，我们想确保有正确的地址。我当时就想，你们是什么意思？他们的意思是，我们不会出钱让你去上大学并加入兄弟会。其实我在很多课上都非常投入学习，不是每一课，但大部分都是。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, that was my plan. And then my parents were like, you know, Gavin, uh, my parents only asked two things of me. Um, the first was you can't join a fraternity, um, in your freshman year at Dartmouth. They, uh, they said, you know, Gavin, that sounds like such a great, fun idea. Just let us know where we need to send the tuition checks. We want to make sure we have the exact address. And I was like, what do you mean? They're like, we are not paying for you to go to college and be in a fraternity. When like, I was really engaged in my classes. I'm not all of them, but a lot of them.
嗯，所以，第二件事情是我告诉他们我的计划，我说，我可能会在大三秋季的时候，就这样，在美国西部到处开车旅行，还会去博尔德攀岩。他们说，"你知道的，加文，除了不加入兄弟会外，我们从来没有要求过你做什么。我们唯一的要求就是你得有一次真正的实习。我们非常支持你去美国西部，我们也很喜欢那些山。我们明白你为什么喜欢那些山。但是，请做一次实习，而我唯一能找到的实习机会是在Donaldson Lufkin的零售经纪业务工作。我的工作是在哈佛广场一个女士的房子地下室住，然后每天打印东西。"
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so, but the second thing was I told them about my plan and I said, I'll probably, you know, take junior fall and just, you know, drive around the American West and, you know, um, you know, climb in Boulder. They're like, you know, Gavin, never, apart from not joining Fratt, we haven't asked you to do anything. Our only ask of you is you just have one real internship. We're super into this plan. Um, you know, to go to the American West. We love, we love the mountains. We understand why you love the mountains. Um, but just have one internship and the only internship I could get, um, was at Donaldson Lufkin engine rep working in a retail brokerage. And my job, I lived in the basement of a woman's house in, um, in Harvard square. Um, and my job was to, uh, print out every day.
你知道吗，很久以前，地区经纪公司会收到所有研究报告的纸质版，大概有50份每一个DLJ发布的研究报告。这些报告是由DLJ的卖方部门在前一天发布的。我的工作是，比如说，这里有一份关于联邦快递的报告，我需要去看看哪些客户持有它，把报告放在信封里，打印出来，邮寄给他们。于是我开始阅读这些研究报告，觉得非常惊人。对我来说，投资就像是一种技巧和运气的游戏，而赢得这个游戏的方法就是通过对历史最全面的理解与对世界现状最准确的把握，来形成一个与众不同的判断，预测接下来会发生什么。我很喜欢这种游戏。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, there's a long time ago, the regional brokerage office would get all of a paper copy. It's like 50 paper copies of every research report that DLJ had published. The DLJ sell side ends published the day before. And my job was to, you know, okay, here's a report on FedEx. Let me go see which clients own it, put it in an envelope, print out the thing, mail it to them. Um, and so I started reading the research reports and I was like, this is amazing. Um, and it just felt to me like investing was a game of skill and chance where the way you won. And I liked those games where the way you won was by, um, intersecting, um, the most thorough understanding of history possible with the most accurate understanding of the state of the world to form a differential opinion about what is going to happen next.
嗯，对我来说，这真是令人兴奋。我好像读了两遍沃伦·巴菲特写给股东的信，也读了两遍《市场奇才》。我自学了会计。然后，我回到达特茅斯大学，把专业从英语和历史改成了历史和经济学，从此再也没有回头顺。我想顺便讲一个关于户外爱好的故事，我一直非常感激我的父母。只要不在德克萨斯丘陵地区，我们每年夏天都会去科罗拉多旅行，去那里远足。我妈妈和爸爸都很喜欢落基山国家公园。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and that was super exciting to me. I, um, like, I think I read Warren Buffett's letters to shareholders twice. I read market wizards twice. I taught myself accounting. Um, and I came back, uh, to Dartmouth and I, um, switched my majors from English and history to history and economics and just never really looked back. By the way, there is a story I'd like to tell about just, you know, the love of the outdoors, something I'm always be so grateful, um, to my parents for. So when I wasn't in the Texas Hill country, we would always go to Colorado every summer and we'd go hiking. My mom loved Rocky Mountain National Park. So did my dad.
嗯，我为我的父母感到非常自豪。我认为他们登上了朗峰的顶峰。嗯，他们可能是在五十多岁的时候登顶的，但对于他们来说这可是件大事。他们不是那种，嗯，我真的为他们感到骄傲。他们用了24个小时。我那天和我一起上山，他们是午夜出发的，我们是在午夜回家的，因为我是早上5点出发的。不知道怎么回事，路上没见到他们，下山后就开始担心他们，大概是晚上七点钟，我心想：“天啊，我的父母在哪？”然后我去了巡查站，他们说，"是的，有很多报告说有一对年长的夫妇走得非常慢。"
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I'm very proud of my parents. I think they summited Long's Peak. Um, they probably summited Long's Peak when they were in their late fifties, but it was a big deal for them. They were not, um, I was very proud of them. They, uh, they took 24 hours. Um, and I went up the same day with my, they literally left at midnight and we got home at midnight because I left at 5:00 AM. Didn't see them on the trail somehow came back down. And then at like seven o'clock, I'm like, holy shit, where are my parents? So go to the ranger station. And they're like, yeah, we've had a lot of reports of an older couple who's moving really slow.
于是我和护林员一起徒步回去，只是为了确认他们没事。我们常常去查森湖，观察朗斯峰。我们会用望远镜观看在“钻石”之上攀爬的登山者。那里是继约塞米蒂的巨墙之后，美国技术难度最大、多段式攀岩挑战之一。当我的父母听说我开始攀岩时，他们送了我一整套攀岩装备。在攀岩中，装备套件是很重要的，这也显示了我多么幸运。我感到非常幸运，身为美国人，且出生在较为优越的环境中。他们寄给我全套的攀岩装备，却什么也没说。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so I hiked back up, uh, with the ranger just to make sure they're okay. But, uh, we would always go to Chasm Lake and we'd look at Long's Peak and we'd have binoculars and we'd look at the climbers on what's called the diamond, which after the big walls in Yosemite is for sure the most probably technically challenging, um, multi-pitch, um, climb in America. Um, and so when my parents heard I started to climb, a big thing in climbing is called a rack. And this just shows how privileged I was. And I feel so lucky. Um, you know, I mean, it's, it's amazing to be an American and it's amazing to be an American who was born in, um, you know, relatively fortunate circumstances, but they, uh, they sent me a full climbing rack and didn't say anything.
这段话翻译成中文如下：
“这简直就像一个完美的安排，他们这样做真的让我很感动。所以我对我的父母充满感激。他们让我不要加入兄弟会，并让我去实习一次，这对我来说都是非常好的事情。还有最后一点我想说的是，这对我是谁也很重要，我永远不会忘记第一次从达特茅斯圣诞节回家时，爸爸在机场接我。我们住在休斯顿，而国际机场离家有45分钟车程，休斯顿的城市布局很分散。他对我说，‘听着，Gavin，我们很高兴你能回家，但你要知道我已经有20、30、35年没有超过10天的假期了。’”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it was like a perfect rack and it was just such a nice thing for them to have done. So I just, like, I'm very grateful to my parents. The fact that they asked me to, you know, not join a frat and have one internship were like really good things for me. And the one last thing I just want to say, because I use all and also important to who I was, I'll never forget the, um, first Christmas. I came home from Dartmouth. My dad picked me up at the airport, um, intercontinentals, like a 45 minute drive, um, from kind of where we lived in Houston, you know, Houston's very sprawling. And he said, listen, Gavin, we're so happy you were coming home, but I want you to know it has been 20, 30 years, 35 years since I've had more than a 10 day vacation.
你有很多时间，比如说圣诞假期、春假，这些都是去各地旅行和看世界的好机会。他说，你妈和我很想见你，不过我们也可以去达特茅斯看你。我们只是希望你去看看世界，追求自己的兴趣。这真是非常充满爱的行为，因为我知道他们肯定想和我在一起，但他们却如此支持我，这真的让我非常感动。所以，我对我的父母心存感激。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you have all these times where you have like big, you know, Christmas break, spring break, you know, opportunities to go places and see the world. And he's like, your mom and I, we'd love to see you. And, you know, but we can, we can come see you at Dartmouth. We would just love to encourage you to go see the world, do what you want, pursue your interests. And that was just, you know, that was like such a loving thing to do because I'm sure, you know, they want to be around, but like, that was really incredible. So I do think, um, I'm very grateful to my parents.
嗯，那个，嗯，总之，我学习历史和经济学，我全心投入。嗯，然后我得到另一个实习机会，实际上是在自杀研究领域工作，主要是涵盖EDA、概要和节奏。嗯，那个时候，我就觉得非常棒。他们开始关注一家很小的公司，叫做Wind River，这公司是做实时操作系统（RTOS）的。他们让我撰写报告的初稿，这让我感到无比兴奋。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and, um, so anyways, um, I do history and economics. I'm all in. Um, then I get another internship working in suicide research, actually covering EDA, uh, synopsis and cadence. Um, and, um, like I was, it was, it was awesome. Um, they were initiating coverage on a really small company called the wind river, which was an RTOS system, real-time operating systems. And they let me write the first draft of the report. And it was just like the most exciting thing I could imagine.
嗯，那时候互联网才刚刚起步，我对Motley Fool（疯狂愚人）非常着迷。有很多人，比如Dale Wettlaufer，他们在谈论投资资本回报率（ROIC）。这个概念在当时是一个新兴的趋势，在华尔街被认为优于股本回报率（ROE）。我在阅读所有关于投资资本回报率和增量投资回报的信息，那真是一个令人兴奋的时期，我学到了很多东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and the internet was just starting off and I was so into the Motley Fool. And there are all these guys, Dale Wettlaufer and like that. And they were talking about the return on invested capital, which was kind of like a new concept that was sweeping, um, Wall Street as being superior to ROE and just reading everything about ROIC and incremental returns on invested capital. Like it was just such an exciting time. I was just learning so much.
嗯，然后我下定了很大的决心。我去高盛面试了两个职位，一个是投资银行。他们问我为什么大学成绩不太稳定。我回答说，因为我很难在不感兴趣的事情上努力。他们就说，那这个工作可能不适合你，因为这份工作需要做一些非常辛苦且重复的事情，有时甚至无聊，但非常重要，而且不能出错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and then I was pretty determined. Um, I interviewed at, um, at Goldman Sachs, um, for two jobs. Um, one was in investment banking and they asked why my grades in college were still uneven. And I said, listen, I struggle to, um, work hard on things that don't interest me. And then they're like, well, this probably isn't a job for you because this involves doing really hard work that is repetitive and at times boring, but essential. And you can't make a mistake.
他们说，听着，我们会教你所有需要知道的东西，但你必须能够胜任这些细致的工作。而且，我确实认为银行业务是一个了不起的背景。你知道，那些接受过银行培训的孩子们，如果你没有这样的培训，从建模的角度来看，可能永远赶不上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And they're like, listen, we'll teach you everything you need to know, but you got to be able to do this detailed work. And by the way, I do think banking is an incredible background. Um, you know, the kids just, you've had that banking training. It just, you kind of never really catch up from a modeling perspective if you didn't have it.
嗯，我当时觉得你知道吗，这工作好像不太适合我。他们也说不适合。不过后来我收到了一份工作邀请，是和一个有点传奇色彩的高盛研究分析师一起共事。他是娱乐行业的分析师，也是一位少数合伙人。他对我说：“听着，我对去参加奥斯卡和格莱美颁奖典礼有点厌倦了，我会派你去。”我当时心想，哇，这听起来挺有趣的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but I was like, you know, this doesn't sound like the right job for me. And they're like, Nope. Um, but then I, I got a job offer to work, um, with kind of a legendary Goldman Sachs, um, research analyst. He's one of the few partners and he's the entertainment analyst. And he's like, listen, man, I'm tired of going to, you know, the Oscars and the Grammys. I'm going to send you, you know, I was like, Whoa, that sounds fun.
嗯，那时候，我正在面试索罗斯基金，还试图去虎基金等对冲基金面试。那是1998年末。当时，我从来没想过要去富达基金。而且，我上课也不是很勤奋。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but, um, and then, you know, I was kind of interviewing with, um, Soros, um, and trying to interview with Tiger and, you know, um, you know, hedge funds like that. This was, you know, late, um, like 1998. Um, and, um, um, by, um, it never occurred to me to go to fidelity. And then, um, I wasn't always so good about going to class.
那些一直陪我朋友去上经济学课的人，我对这门课不太感兴趣。他们有课的笔记，在考试前我在看他们的笔记。真的是很好、很棒的人。然后他们跟我说，哇，我们刚去了一个富达的活动，听起来那真是个很适合你的工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so the people who've been taking my friends, who've been going to an econ class that I wasn't super into, um, like we, they, they had their notes and I was going through their notes before a test. They're really nice, great guys. And, um, and they said, man, we just went to this like fidelity thing. And it sounds like an amazing job for you.
我们把事情告诉了富达投资的招聘人员，他叫史蒂夫·卡尔霍恩，到现在他仍然是我们的好朋友。当时他是富达的助理研究总监。我们向他介绍了你，他曾经是达特茅斯学院的毕业生，对你非常感兴趣。这是他的名片。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And like, we told the fidelity recruiting guy, who's a guy named Steve Calhoun, who's still a very good and dear friend to this day. Um, and he was the director of associate research at fidelity at the time. We told him about you and he was a Dartmouth grad. We told him about you and he's like, super interested. And here's his card.
在那个时候，我收到了一些投资银行的紧急工作邀请。然后，Calhoun打电话给我，他说：“是的，我们得让你来波士顿，兄弟。你的朋友跟我提过你，你一定得来。” 我回答道：“嗯，我手头上有这些限期很紧的工作邀请，它们会在星期三到期。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And at this time I had several exploding offers from investment banks. Um, and Calhoun calls me up and he's like, yeah, we got to get you to Boston, man. Like your friends told me about you. You got to come to Boston. And I was like, um, well, I got these offers that explode, um, like literally on Wednesday.
我下周可能去不了波士顿。我知道，星期一我大概有48小时来做决定。他跟我说，别担心，如果一两天后你还是在担心这件事，那你就来，但不用太担心。我就问他你到底想表达什么。他说，你就放松点，计划下周来波士顿，别担心那些事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like I can't come to Boston next week. Like I, you know, it's like Monday, I have like 48 hours to decide. He's like, listen, don't worry about it. He's like, if you're still worried about it in a day or two, you just come, but don't worry about it. And I was like, what are you telling? He's like, just relax, just plan on coming to Boston next week. Don't worry about these offers.
那天晚些时候，你知道，投资银行给我打电话，他们说，你的报价不再火热了，是吧？ 嗯，所以，我加入了富达。他们派我去参加一个很棒的项目叫做业务桥梁计划，是在塔克学院的。这个项目非常出色，有一个非常好的为期一个月的培训课程。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then later that day, you know, the investment banks called me up and they're like, your offers are no longer exploding, you know? Um, and so, um, joined fidelity. They sent me to the business bridge program, um, at talk, which was, which was a great program. You know, you have this, this, you know, a really, really good one month training session.
然后，关于富达的一个很棒之处在于，他们给予你充分的自由去按照自己的方式完成工作，只要能带来结果。他们非常注重结果。这不是夸大其词。比如说，当一个公司公布业绩时，你需要更新模型并发布报告。尽管如此，还是有一定的流程结构，但你的任务是创造超额收益。创造超额收益有很多种方法，如果你能不断创造这些收益，你就会表现出色。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then the awesome thing about fidelity is they give you the freedom to do the job however you want, provided it delivers an outcome. It is super outcome based. And that's an overstatement. You do, you know, you want a company reports earnings, you update the model and you publish your note. Um, you know, so there, there is structure, but your job is to generate alpha and, you know, there's many ways to generate alpha and you generate alpha and you will do well.
所以，嗯，嗯，关于富达，令人感到很棒的事情是，你知道，当杰克·韦尔奇来访时，在通用电气，任何人都可以参加那个会议，这真的很酷。嗯，所以每次约翰·钱伯斯来访时，任何人也都可以参加那个会议。作为一个非常年轻的人，你有机会接触到这些杰出的高管。然后你会发现自己经常研究的一些股票可能对于那些拥有优秀长期业绩记录的大型基金经理来说并不是特别重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, um, um, and the awesome thing about fidelity is, you know, when Jack, Jack Welch would come in and that was the big thing that GEC, anybody can go to that meeting, which is really cool. Um, and so whenever, you know, when John Chambers would come in, anybody could go to that meeting. So as a very young person, you, you kind of get exposed, um, to these great executives. And then you see how you're often covering stocks that are maybe not super important to the big PMs with the great long-term track records.
嗯，但是你有机会参加那个会议，看看这些管理着五百亿、一千亿、两千亿、三千亿资金的项目经理是如何进行工作的。特别是威尔，他现在正要退休，看看他们是如何与高管互动的，你还能观察他们提出的问题。这真是一次难以置信的学习体验。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but you get to go to that meeting and see how these PMs, you know, who managed 50, a hundred, 200 billion, 300 billion. And in the case of, of Will, um, who's now retiring, um, how they engage with an executive and you get to watch the questions that they ask. And I mean, just what an incredible learning experience that was.
嗯，我最初是从水泥和骨料行业入手的。作为一名投资者，我觉得从这样一个以供需关系为核心的基础行业起步是很棒的。在这个行业中，固定成本等因素在每个生意里都存在。很多其他行业可能不会那么明显，但归根结底，一切都离不开供需关系。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and then I would just say I had, I actually started off covering cement and aggregates. And I think it's amazing as an investor to start in a commodity industry where it comes down, you know, to supply and demand, to fixed costs, um, you know, uh, elements that are present in every business. Um, but often in a lot of businesses, they're obscured, but ultimately everything comes down to supply and demand.
所以，我负责了那些工作，持续了三个月，那段经历非常棒。你知道，那让我在商品行业中学到了很多东西。然后，有一个基金经理负责所有股票，他的名字是Neil Miller，他也参与其中。但他对科技更感兴趣。幸运的是，通常在富达的头三年里，你会一直负责同一组工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I covered, I did those for three months and that was incredible. Just getting that, you know, education in a commodity industry. Um, and then there was one PM who owned all the stocks and he also, um, his name was Neil Miller and he also covered, um, but he was more excited about tech and, you know, a lucky thing that happened to me is normally cover the same group for your entire first three years at fidelity.
我曾经喜欢水泥和骨料行业，但可能在前三个月之后，我觉得已经把能学到的东西都学会了。这些业务并不是最复杂的。不过，就像所有事情一样，就像建立模型一样，习惯于在模型中将价格一直接到税前收入这一行中。如果你没有一直将价格和销量分开建模的训练，我认为这是一个很好的框架，可以用来涉足很多行业。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I loved cement and aggregates, but probably after the first three months, maybe there's, you've kind of learned what there is to learn. They're, they're not the most complicated businesses. Um, and he, um, but you know, just like everything, just like modeling, getting in the habit of modeling that when that price falls all the way down to the pre-tax income line, you know, and just, if you don't have that training, you know, of always modeling price and volume differently, you know, I just think it's a really good framework to start a lot of the industry.
所以三个月后，他们把我从水泥和骨料部门调到了半导体部门。Finality真是个超棒的地方。那里的明星分析师是一个叫Rajiv的人，他现在仍然是我的好朋友。我直接在一个叫Brian的人手下工作，他至今也是我的好友。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So after three months, they moved me, um, from cement and aggregates to semiconductors. And, um, and finality was such an awesome place. The, um, like the hotshot analyst, um, was this guy named Rajiv call who's, who's still, um, you know, he's, he's a good friend of mine. Um, like I worked directly under, um, kind of Brian, this guy, Brian hits and was still a good friend.
然后，嗯，布莱恩和一位名叫詹妮弗·尤瑞格的女士关系非常亲近，而詹妮弗和布莱恩现在是我最好的朋友之一。她是我非常重要的导师。不过，嗯，在大约六周研究这些股票后，我在2000年2月发布了一份报告。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, um, Brian was very close to a woman named Jennifer Yurig, who in there, and now Jennifer and Brian are some of my absolute best friends. She's a very important mentor to me, but, um, I published a note, I think in like February of the year 2000, after six weeks of looking at these stocks.
我认为使用供应和需求框架对我非常有帮助，因为我进行了分析，我说，来，让我们看看每家半导体公司的库存，然后再看看他们客户的库存。我发现，客户的库存和库存周转天数都达到了历史最高水平，其中成品库存也达到了历史新高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think having that like supply demand framework was really helpful to me because the analysis that I did, as I said, listen, let's look at, um, the inventories of every semiconductor company, and then let's look at their customers' inventories. And what I saw is customer inventories and day's inventory were at all-time highs within that finished goods were at an all-time high.
然后，半导体库存达到了历史最高水平，股票的交易市盈率明显是前所未有的高。因此，我写了一份报告，我说，嘿，这与市场需求环境不一致。我们需要对这些估值感到某种适度的安心。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then the semiconductor inventories were at all-time high and the stocks were obviously trading at multiples no one had ever seen before. And so I wrote a note, I said, Hey, this is not consistent with the demand environment. We need to like remotely, um, be comfortable with these valuations.
嗯，我没想到这会是个大事。我坐在隔间里，而Rajiv，他有办公室，因为他是个资深的人。Rajiv是在杜塞尔多夫长大的，所以他说话有德国口音。我听到他在附近走来走去，他说：“Gavin Baker 怎么样？我需要和那个孩子谈谈，他在哪儿？”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, um, it didn't occur to me like that this would be like a big deal. Um, but I said it set in a cubicle and, um, uh, Rajiv, you know, he has an office cause he's, you know, he's, he's a senior guy. Um, and Rajiv, Rajiv had grown up in Dusseldorf. Uh, so he had a German accent and he, I hear him walking around. He says, How is Gavin Baker? I need to talk to that kid. Where, where is he?
嗯，天哪。我真的没有想到这会对Rajiv有什么影响。我走向他，他面前有一大堆纸。他有点拍了拍我的胳膊，说，那真是个好主意。我打印了50份在这里。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, Oh my God. Like, I didn't think on how this would like reflect on, you know, Rajiv. Um, and I come to him, he has a big stack of paper. He's like, and he like kind of punches me in the arm. He's like, that was a great note. I printed out 50 copies of it. Here they are.
我降低了股票评级，今天你和我要去见每位产品经理。我心想，哇，于是我对Rajiv的反应感到非常感激。这段经历对我影响深远，我喜欢的两只股票都很小，一只是集成电路系统公司，另一只是英伟达。我是负责分析的，而集成电路那家公司由霍克·谭（现在是博通公司的CEO）领导。霍克让我有些紧张，所以我没有经常和他说话。有趣的是，霍克的商业模式完全与戴尔的模式相反。戴尔的策略是找到一个有丰厚利润的领域，攻击并榨取其利润。而霍克的方法一直是找到一个已经被榨干利润、没有竞争的领域，然后进入市场并提高价格。霍克一直以这种方式成功运营了很长时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I've downgraded my stocks and you and I are going to go see every PM today. And I was like, wow. Um, so, um, like, I feel a lot of gratitude towards Rajiv for reacting that way. But then a really formative experience for me, the two stocks that I liked were both pretty small stocks. One was integrated circuit systems and the other was NVIDIA. And because, and I was the analyst and integrated circuits was run by Hawk Tam, you know, who's now the CEO of Broadcom. I, um, Hawk was a little intimidating to me. Um, and so I did not talk to him as much. And it's so interesting that model, it's like the exact opposite, opposite of the Dell model. You know, the Dell model is to find a rich profit pool and attack it and drain it. Hawk's model has always been to find a profit pool that has been drained and there's no competition left. Enter that and Jack price is up. Um, that's what he's done so successfully for so long.
然后，我非常佩服霍克的一点是，与很多半导体同行不同，他能够留住优秀的工程师。保留优秀人才的人有詹森、霍克和丽莎。大多数其他半导体公司无法留住杰出的高管，但霍克显然有识别并留住人才的能力。不过，詹森对我来说并没有那么令人生畏。可能是因为我们的年龄相近，虽然我实际上不太清楚。他当时还是个年轻人，而我也是个年轻人。我立即意识到他是个非常出色的人，可以说是我见过最出色的人之一。不过那时候我才23岁，还没有遇到过多少真正杰出的人，但现在我可以肯定地说，詹森是我这辈子遇到过最出色的两三个人之一。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then also what I give Hawk a lot of credit for is unlike a lot of his semiconductor peers, the people who retain the exceptional engineers are Jensen, Hawk, and Lisa. Most other semiconductor companies fail to retain exceptional executives, but Hawk clearly has an ability to identify talent and retain it. Um, but, um, Jensen for whatever reason was less intimidating to me. Um, you know, I, I would guess he was, he's closer in age to me, although I actually don't know. Um, you know, he was a pretty young man. I was a pretty young man. Um, you know, it was obvious to me he was exceptional, like for sure. One of the most exceptional people I'd ever met, but you know, I was like 23 years old. Like I hadn't met that many truly exceptional people yet, but like now for sure, Jensen is, you know, one of the two or three most exceptional people I've ever met in my life.
呃，当我还很小的时候接触到他，我觉得这真的塑造了我。呃，呃，呃，然后我加入了下一个团队，他们把我分配到了大型制药公司。要解释那段经历有多糟糕真的很困难，就像烟雾半导体一样糟糕。呃，当时大型制药公司是市场上最重要的一个板块。我那时25岁，负责大型制药公司，并接手了我的第一个基金。呃，而对于小型半导体公司，你可以了解它们，但很少有人会关注它们，大概只有15个人覆盖这块领域。而且通常不是一百个人里选一个人。这是一种不同的竞争环境，并且非常依赖产品周期，具有很强的独特性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but being exposed to him at such a young age, I think it really shaped me. Um, um, um, so my next group, they gave me large cap farm and it is difficult to explain like how badly it was like in smoke semis. Um, and large cap farm was kind of the most important group in the market at that time. And I was 25 years old, I had large cap farm and I take over, um, my first fund and, um, with small cap semis, you know, you can really, you know, I, you know, I don't know, maybe there's 15 people who will cover them. Um, and it's not often like the, the one, you know, the hundred out of a hundred people, you know? Um, and so it's a different competitive set and it's a very product cycle driven and very idiosyncratic.
在那个时候，大型制药公司基本上被所有人关注，连得满分。我是最后一批涉足这个领域的人之一，而我自己不是MD或PhD（医学博士或哲学博士）。而我那时竞争的人中有很多都是MD、PhD，但这实际上归结于对行业趋势的判断。我只是对这个行业的预测错误了。当时我还很年轻，在富达基金工作，可以说，我从一位高排名的分析师跌到了谷底。哇。我觉得那段时间对我个人的成长有很大的影响。有几方面的原因：首先，我认为在职业生涯早期经历这种挫折是有利的，因为成功投资于公开股票市场是不同于私募股权或风险投资的。在后者中，大家看起来都很优秀，衣着得体，而你只是和大约十个人竞争一个项目的价格。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Large cap pharma at that point, everybody covers it is a hundred out of a hundred. Um, I was one of the last people to cover it, not as an MD, PhD. Um, and already a lot of the people I was kind of competing with are MD, PhDs, but really came down to a sector call. And I just got the sector call wrong. And like, I was a very young man and a Fidelity, um, like, let's just say I went from being one of the most, um, highly ranked analysts to the bottom. Wow. Um, and I think that was a really, that time was super formative for me in a couple of ways. Um, one, I think going through something like that early in your career is very advantageous because so much of succeeding as an investor and public equities where it's not, um, you know, it's not like private equity or the venture where everybody's kind of good looking and well-dressed and you're only competing with like 10 people, the price of deal.
你在和地球上的所有人竞争。这里面有很多非常聪明的人，他们可能外貌不出众，也不是衣着光鲜、口才出色的人。在风险投资和私募股权中，你不需要和这样的人竞争，但在公共股权中，你必须与他们竞争。这是地球上竞争最激烈的领域之一，这意味着这是一场非常艰难的比赛，你会经历非常困难的时期。无论你有多优秀，你都会遇到艰难的时刻。所以成功很大程度上取决于韧性、坚持和热爱这场比赛。忘掉成功吧，如果你不热爱这场比赛，你就不可能成为一个成功的投资者，因为你在和那些热爱这场比赛的人竞争。我看到一条关于成为优秀网球选手的名言：要想成为一名伟大的网球选手，你必须热爱击球。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're competing with everyone on planet earth. Okay. And there's a lot of really smart people who are not like good looking and well-dressed and well-spoken and you don't have to compete with those people in venture and private equity, but you have to compete with them in public equity. So it's the biggest competitive set on planet earth. And that just means it's a really hard game and you're going to go through really hard times. Like no matter how good you are, you're going to have really hard times. And so much of success is just resilience, tenacity and loving the game. Like forget succeeding. You cannot succeed as an investor if you don't love the game because you're competing with people who do. I see that no joke of it to quote about him to be a great tennis player. You have to love hitting the ball.
嗯，如果你不热爱这项运动，你就无法竞争，但如果你不爱这项运动，你也无法生存，因为对这项运动的热爱必须是支撑你的动力。所以那段时间对我来说非常艰难。不过，我觉得早早经历这样的事情对我来说是件好事。在那段时间里，我学到了很多让我终生受益的东西。其中一个是我最喜欢提到的一本书：《地海巫师》。我读了这本书，觉得它实在是太棒了。故事一开始，主角是一个传奇的宗师，但第一本书讲的是他的挣扎：他被巫师学校开除。可以肯定的是，JK罗琳肯定读过这本书好几次，里面有很多《哈利·波特》的影子。故事中，他被驱逐出学校，这一切都是关于傲慢的教训。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, you can't compete if you don't love the game, but you also can't survive if you don't love the game because the love of the game has to be something that keeps you going. So that was like a really hard time for me. Um, and having that experience early was I think really good for me. Um, and I did, and I learned a few things that always stayed with me. Um, one is one of my favorite books to bring up was a wizard of our sea. And I read that and a wizard of our sea is fundamentally, it's so great. Um, because, um, the book begins with, you know, the guys like the archmage and, you know, a legend, but the first book is about like his struggles. Like he gets cast out of the wizard school. Like for sure, JK Rowling read this book a few times. Um, there's a lot of Harry Potter to it, but he gets like cast out and it's all about arrogance.
我确实认为许多投资错误源于自负。是的，就像我读过那本书，它成为了我的一个重要参考。每当我经历困难时，我会重新阅读那本书。每次经历困难后，都会变得更容易一些，因为我记得上次的经历，拥有这样的参考是很好的。另外，我认为当投资者经历困难时，做一些有助于提高某项数值的爱好非常重要，比如跑步、举重或者电子游戏。可以是你的击杀/死亡比（K/D），但重要的是要有一个数值是通过你的努力可以提高的。我认为这在心理上非常有帮助，尤其是在你经历困难时期的时候。那是我第一次真正依靠这种方法，我减了大概30磅。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I do think a lot of investing mistakes come down to arrogance. Yeah. So like I read that book and that became a touchstone for me. Whenever I'd go through a hard time, I'd read that book again. And each time you go through a hard time, it gets easier because you remember the last time and it's good to have these touchstones. Um, the other thing I think is really important to do when you're going through a hard time as an investor, have a hobby of some kind where you can make a number improve, you know, running weightlifting in video games. It could be your Katie, but you need a number that you can make improve through your, um, effort. I think that's actually super psychologically helpful when you're going through a hard time. And that was the first time I really leaned into that. You know, I lost like 30 pounds.
呃，你知道，我本来身材走样了，然后在没怎么刻意的情况下，因为压力，我的体形反而变得很好了，这对我来说是一次挺有帮助的经历。还有一件对我影响很大的事情是，当时富达刚刚雇佣了他们的第一个量化团队。很多高级投资经理对他们心存疑虑，把他们称作"绿眼睛护目镜家伙"，怀疑他们会被用来取代自己。所以，这个由七个拥有博士学位的量化专家组成的团队来找我。他们开始向我介绍什么是量化风险管理，然后我心想，天哪，这听起来太棒了，我从来都没想过，原来股票之间有这样一些你意想不到的共有因素。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, you know, I'd gotten very out of shape and then I got, you know, without really trying, um, I got very into shape, um, just because of stress. Um, and so that was a helpful experience. The other thing that was super formative to me was Fidelity had just hired their first team of quants. A lot of the senior PMs were suspicious. They called them the green eye shade guys. They were, um, they were suspicious that they were going to be used to take their jobs. And you know, so this team of like seven quants who all have PhDs, they come to meet with me. Um, and you know, they start telling me about quantitative risk management and I'm like, Oh my God, this sounds amazing. Like I've never, this makes so much sense, you know, like that there are these common factors between stocks that you wouldn't think were correlated.
在我开始管理基金一个月后，我就想，什么时候可以再见到你们？他们说，随时都可以，因为到目前为止，你是唯一想和我们在一起的人。于是，我真的每天和他们这些大约七位博士见面，一见就是一个或两个小时，持续了一年。我阅读了风险手册，这真是非常幸运。之后，我专注于医药领域的研究，但是经历了药品行业之后，他们给了我烟草相关的工作，烟草行业主要是关于诉讼风险。虽然我不确定他们向我说明得有多清楚，但有三个案例是股票的生存风险，其中包括万宝路淡味、司法部的一个案件，还有一个我记不清楚的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I was a month into running the fund and I was like, when is the next time I can meet with you guys? Like, well, anytime you want, cause so far you're the only person who wants to be with us. And so I literally met with these like seven PhDs for an hour or two every day for a year. Like I read the bearer risk manual and that was incredibly lucky. And then I, um, and then I covered, um, but after the experience on pharma, they gave me tobacco and tobacco was all about litigation risk. And I don't know how clearly they spelled out to me, but there were three cases you had to get any, there are three cases that were existential risks to the stocks because Marlboro lights, the DOJ and then something else I can't remember.
嗯，我的感觉是，因为他们只给了我烟草，而通常人们得到的不只是烟草，所以如果我不能正确处理所有这些案件，我就会被解雇。所以我必须正确处理三个诉讼案件，否则我会被解雇。这是我的信念结构。嗯，这其实挺好的，因为常言道“需要是发明之母”，而且在富达（Fidelity）你确实有很多资源。所以我参加了每一个审判听证会，所有公开的东西。我找到了曾在各位法官手下工作过的书记员，帮助我理解这些案件。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but my feeling was cause they only gave me tobacco and normally people got more than tobacco was that if I didn't get all those cases, right, I was going to be fired. So I had to call three litigation cases correctly or I was going to get fired. That was my belief structure. Um, and, um, and that was super cool because, um, you know, it's necessity is the mother of invention and you do have a lot of resources at fidelity. And so I went to every single trial hearing, everything that was public. I found people who had been clerks, who'd like worked for each judge to help me interpret it.
嗯，你知道，我阅读了成千上万的页数，并且在股票方面做出了正确的判断。嗯，还在案件方面做出了正确的决定。如果你投入这种工作，你的确可以在诉讼中获得优势。嗯，尽管诉讼结果显然是二元的，在陪审团审判中什么都有可能发生，但当你在DC巡回法院时，这对我来说特别酷，因为这相当于像去了DC，而DC巡回法院是仅次于最高法院的第二高法院。不管怎样，嗯，是的。我成功地做到了这些，然后他们给了我HBC和零售部门的其他工作。这是另一段令人难以置信的经历，因为那时候HBC非常注重全球化和金砖国家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, you know, I read thousands and tens of thousands of pages and I got the stocks, right. Um, call the cases, right. And you can for sure get an edge in litigation if you do that kind of work. Um, even though it's obviously binary and in a jury trial, anything can happen, but like when you're at the DC circuit and it was so cool to me to go to like the, um, the DC, you know, circuit, uh, which is the second highest court after the Supreme court. Anyways, um, yeah. And, uh, so I got those right. And then they gave me the rest of HBC and retail. And this was another like incredible experience because back then HBC was all about globalization and the bricks.
所以，我每年都会去这些“金砖国家”各去一次。一年去一次俄罗斯，一年去一次中国，一年去一次印度，一年去一次巴西。然后去其他国家旅行。这些经历让我意识到世界真的很大。学习了很多，感受很棒。在零售方面也收获颇丰。在投资方面，我从“富达投资”受益良多，他们的理念是：如果你喜欢一家公司的产品、故事和理念，你就会喜欢这家公司的股票。这个观点源自彼得·林奇，他的投资理念与丘吉尔和莎士比亚在英语中的名言一样经典，就像巴菲特、彼得·林奇的投资书籍一样让人爱不释手。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, you know, I would go to the, each of the bricks once a year, you know, so I'd go to Russia once a year and go to China once a year and go to India once a year, Brazil once a year. And then, you know, you'll go hit these other countries. And that was like an incredible experience about learning, you know, like it's a big world. Um, and, um, that was great. Learned a lot. Um, it was, it was retail was, was incredible. Um, and I did have the benefit, you know, fidelity. If you love the stock, if you, um, if you love this, if you love the story, if you love the product, you'll love the stock. Like that's Peter Lynch. You like Peter Lynch and with the same way. Churchill and Shakespeare said everything quotable in English. Like, it's kind of like Peter Lynch's book, Buffett. Yeah.
在投资中，这基本上就是你需要了解的所有东西了。呃，再加上索罗斯提出的反身性概念。但，呃，我当时在亚马逊上购物，并会问每一个零售商，为什么你们不投资于电子商务？他们都说，我们不喜欢那些利润率。我就想，这明显是未来的发展方向啊。他们却说，小孩子家家，这不是你能懂的。然后，在富达投资公司学到了这些东西后，一些道理我永远不会忘记。比如，Tim Cohen 提到，当你听到好主意的时候，虽然都显得很显而易见，但我之前从没想到过，如果你是一家零售商，卖的是通胀型产品，那是多么有利可图，这与销售通缩型商品完全不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They're kind of really all you need in investing. Um, along with maybe the concept of reflexivity from Soros. But, um, so, um, I was doing all my shopping at Amazon and I would ask every retailer, why aren't you guys investing in e-commerce? And like, they all said, well, we don't like the margins. And I'm like, but it's obviously the future. And they're like, no, it's not about what you know, little kid. And then like, you know, you learn these things at fidelity. Like I'll never forget. There's, um, Tim Cohen. Um, it's so all, all good ideas are so obvious once you hear them, but like, it had never occurred to me how powerful it was if you're a retailer and what you sell is inflationary and how different that is than if you're selling deflationary stuff.
这就是为何电子商务最初在一些具有通货紧缩特性的领域开始发展的原因，因为资本周转周期对它有利，给了它与像Home Depot这样的公司相比的定价优势，因为Home Depot的商品价格并不会真的下跌。Tim Cohen教会了我这一点，所以你会在富达不断学习这些东西。后来，我开始关注电信领域，那时正值智能手机的早期阶段，比如当iPhone推出时，我就负责TMT（科技、媒体和电信）分析。我负责电信和媒体领域的研究，那段时间非常令人兴奋。从2007年到2021年，在90%的客户会议中，我基本上都会被问到有关泡沫的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this is why e-commerce, um, got started in things that was where there's a deflationary aspect and the working capital cycle really worked for you and gave you a pricing advantage versus like Home Depot where like the stuff doesn't deflate really. Um, Tim, Tim Cohen taught me that, but, um, so you're just always learning these things at fidelity. Um, then I covered telecom. Um, and those were the early days, um, of, of, of smartphones. Like I was kind of the TMT analyst when the iPhone came out. Uh, I was, uh, I covered telecom and media. Um, and that was really exciting. And then from 2007 through 2021, I was essentially asked about the bubble in 90% of client meetings.
嗯，你知道，互联网泡沫，还有像谷歌、Meta、亚马逊和苹果这些公司，你知道的，他们显然处在一个泡沫中。从我第一次被问到泡沫问题开始，接下来的15年里，你就像是坐在分配者或基金管理者的位置上，无论如何，这实际上取决于我们是否超配或低配互联网。在我们回到节目之前，我想要简短地介绍一下我的赞助商Row。Generating Alpha播客由Row赞助，它是一个为初创公司提供的一体化银行平台。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, you know, the internet bubble and like, you know, you know, Google and meta and Amazon and Apple, you know, like, why would you, you know, like, you know, they're clearly in a bubble and, you know, from the time I was first asked about a bubble and during, you know, for the next 15 years, you know, you're just sitting in your performance as an allocator or fund manager, whatever it really came down to. We overweight or underweight the internet. Before we go back to the episode, I want to take a short break to talk about my sponsor row. The generating alpha podcast is presented by row the all-in-one banking platform for startups.
成千上万的初创公司，比如Perplexity和Product Hunt，都在使用Row。使用Row，你可以获得管理初创公司所需的一切：现金管理、快速银行业务、设置返现2%的信用卡，并通过高收益将公司现金转化为额外的资金储备，这些在初创阶段都非常重要。但创始人们真正喜欢Row的原因在于他们的团队。这个团队非常热衷于帮助创始人们颠覆现状，并愿意付出极大努力来支持他们。而对于Generating Alpha播客的听众和观众来说，你们在使用Row管理公司现金时可以获得$1,500的账单抵免，以及大量专属优惠。（条款和条件适用。）
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thousands of startups like perplexity product hunts and more use row. You get everything you need to manage your startups, cash, fast banking, set up cards with a 2% cash back and yield that turns company cash into extra runway, all super important in the early days of launching. But the thing founders really love about row is their team. They're obsessed with helping founders disrupt the status quo and will go to the end of the earth to help them to do so. And exclusively for generating alpha podcast listeners and viewers, you'll get a $1,500 statement credit plus a ton of exclusive perks when you manage your company cash with row. Terms and conditions apply.
要了解更多信息，请访问 rho.co/generatingalpha。Row 是一家金融科技公司，而不是银行。支票和卡服务由 FDIC 成员 Webster Bank 提供。有关详细信息，请参阅奖励条款。谢谢。回到节目内容。我想借此机会谈谈人工智能。是的，让我们来聊聊人工智能吧。在此之前，你提到了对投资的热爱，其中一个原因是你对历史有深刻的理解。历史告诉我们，在经历这种规模的变革时，会有什么样的体验？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
To learn more, visit rho.co/generatingalpha. Row is a fintech, not a bank. Checking and card services provided by Webster Bank, member FDIC. See reward terms for details. Thank you. And back to the episode. And I'd love to take the opportunity to bridge across to AI. Yeah, let's go to AI, man. And so before you talked about kind of your love for investing and one of the things that stem from is having a deep, deep understanding of history. What does history tell us about living through this kind of transformation or transformation of this magnitude?
是的，我认为这是一个很好的问题。卡洛塔·佩雷斯写了一本非常重要的书，叫《金融资本与技术革命》，这本书对我的思维影响很大。根据这本书和人类过去三四百年的历史来看的结论是，每当出现真正革命性的技术时，总会伴随着泡沫。金融市场总是对此技术感到兴奋，并且大多数时候，金融市场是有效的，它们会正确地识别出这些技术是革命性的，并且会改变世界。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So I actually think it's a very good question. There's a great book written by Carlotta Perez, which is kind of foundational to my thinking called Financial Capital and Technological Revolutions. And the conclusion based on that book and really the last three or 400 years of human history, as we've had markets for a long time, right, is that anytime you get a truly revolutionary new technology, you always get a bubble. Financial markets, they correctly get excited about the new technology. You know, financial markets are efficient most of the time. So they correctly identify it as being revolutionary and world transforming.
然后，你会遇到迈克尔·莫比森（Michael Mobison）所称的多样性和观点的瓦解。这就是泡沫的燃料。然后，这个泡沫会导致新技术的过度建设。而这种过度建设会导致需求的暂停，进而引发崩溃。接下来我们要关注一个非常重要的区别，那就是这种建设是通过债务还是现金流来融资的。这对于人工智能来说是一个关键的区别。如果你看看一切，比如运河、铁路、广播、互联网、个人电脑等等，你可能会认为我们可能会经历一个人工智能泡沫。对于像我这样特别注重估值的人来说，泡沫是一场灾难，我非常讲究估值纪律，没有人愿意面对泡沫。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then you have a, what Michael Mobison calls a breakdown of diversity and opinion. And that's what fuels a bubble. And then that bubble leads to, you know, an overbuild of the new technology. And then that overbuild leads to a pause in demand, which leads to a crash. And a very important distinction we will come to is whether or not that build out is funded out of debt or cash flows. It's a critical distinction for AI. And so just if you look at everything, you know, canals, railroads, radio, the internet, PCs, you know, it's like, you would think we will have an AI bubble. And a bubble is a disaster. If you're me, if you're particularly, you know, I'm very valuation conscious, I'm extremely disciplined on valuation. And a bubble is a nightmare, like nobody wants that.
我确实认为我们显然不在泡沫中。任何说我们处于估值泡沫中的人都没有看清形势。比如，科技行业的市盈率和五六年前是一样的，而且自2025年初以来，科技行业的市盈率实际上有所压缩。科技行业现在甚至低于日用品行业，这种情况是很少见的。从估值的角度看，我们没有在泡沫中。不过，考虑到这种大规模的积累，我们是否存在资本支出泡沫？我们是否在过度建设？到目前为止，最简单的答案是，我们在这些支出上的投资回报率一直非常积极。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I do think we're obviously not in a bubble. Like anyone who says we're in a valuation bubble is just not paying attention. You know, tech's at the same multiple it was at five or six years ago, like tech multiples have compressed since the beginning of 25. Tech is now, you know, at a discount to staples, which happens very rarely. We're not in a bubble from a valuation perspective. But given the scale of this buildup is, are we in a capex bubble? Are we in, are we overbuilding? And I am, and you know, the simplest answer thus far is, you know, the ROI on all the spend thus far has been really positive.
我们现在的投资回报率（ROI）暂时有些低，因为Blackwell项目的花费非常巨大，且它目前主要用于培训，这并不直接产生投资回报。但是，当你看到ChatGPT 5.2、Grock 4.20、Codex 5.3这些早期Blackpoint模型时，很明显，具备主动性的人工智能已经到来。Blackwell的投资回报率会非常高。这个市场也有点有趣，一方面担心人工智能会让所有人失业，同时又看到与人工智能高度关联的巨型公司估值颇具吸引力。也许这是因为人们担忧出现类似Satrini情景的全球经济大萧条。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're in a little divot of ROI right now because Blackwell is such an immense expenditure and is being used for training, which doesn't generate an ROI. But I think it's pretty clear when you look at, you know, ChatGPT 5.2, Grock 4.20, Codex 5.3, which are all just very early checkpoints of Blackpoint models that like agentic AI is here. And, you know, we're, the ROI on Blackwell is going to be very high. It's a little bit funny, you know, that the market is simultaneously worried about AI putting everyone out of jobs. And you have, you know, the most AI exposed mega caps at pretty attractive valuations. You know, maybe that's because there's some fear that there's going to be, you know, the Satrini scenario of a global depression.
你怎么看待这件事？我觉得不太可能，而且我也希望不太可能。不过，我确实认为根本上的区别在于泡沫带来的伤痕太深。比如，2009年的情况就很糟糕，市场下跌了大概60%到65%。虽然60%到65%听起来与下跌40%或30%不同，但其实它是非常不同的。在泡沫时期，市场下跌了80%到85%，那是大幅度的下跌。所以，泡沫留下的伤痕非常深，这在一定程度上限制了科技板块的估值。我认为这也是自从Google上市以来，科技公司以极高的速度增长的其中一个原因。Google是在2003或2004年上市的，跟Salesforce是同一年。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And what do you think about that? I think it's unlikely and I hope it's unlikely. But I do think the fundamental differences are one, the scars of the bubble are so deep. You know, like 09 was terrible. You went down, whatever it was, 60, 60, 65. And, you know, 60 to 65 sounds different than 40 or down 30, but it's very different. In the bubble, you went down 80 or 85. Dramatically different. And so the scars are so deep from that bubble. That just that puts a lid on tech valuations. And I think that's one reason tech has compounded at such a high rate, really, since, you know, Google went public. And wherever that was, was that? Oh, four, I believe. Oh, three or four. Google and Salesforce went public the same year.
顺便说一下，这真的很棒。即使你在报道医药行业，也能去谷歌的首次公开募股，这实在是不可思议。因此，对另一个泡沫的担忧在一定程度上抑制了科技公司的估值。换句话说，如果你拿一家科技公司，这家公司不错，然后把它的规模放大，再把它的利润率、收入增长以及投资回报率等指标应用到其他行业，那它可能会以更高的溢价进行交易。但正因为如此，估值一直被限制。其次，我们从根本上在电力和芯片（硅片）方面供应不足，而且没有之前的数据能够证明这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But by the way, it's awesome. You get to go to the Google IPO, even if you're covering pharma, you know, it's incredible. And so these fears of another bubble have kind of kept a lid on tech valuations. You know, if you like, take any tech company, it's a good company. And you just transform its size. And then you put those financials, like those level of margins, revenue growth, ROIC into any other industry. It like traded a massive premium. So valuations have been constrained by this. And second, we are fundamentally short Watts and wafers. And no prior and just that are going to prove.
我认为这种短缺可能会阻止过度建设。但即使我们用轨道数据中心解决了电力短缺的问题，TSM（台积电）依然是个关键。对于SIMI和半导体制造而言，如果你处于领先地位，那就拥有很大优势。这就像是烘焙，每个人使用的原料或者设备都差不多。以前你可以在尼康扫描仪和ASML扫描仪之间选择，现在每个人都用ASML。或者你可以在光刻和蚀刻中做不同选择，但总体来说大家用的设备是一样的。但关键是如何组合这些设备、流程、步骤，其中有很多奥妙，也需要很多试错。所以如果你领先一步，就会有很大的优势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think that shortage may prevent an overbuilt. But even if we solve the shortage of Watts with orbital data centers, the TSM is still a bottom. And SIMIs and SIMI conductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead. Everybody, it's like, it's like baking. Everybody uses the same ingredients or, you know, whatever. Used to be able to choose between like the Nikon scanners and the ASML scanner. Now everybody uses ASML. Or, you know, you can make different choices for litho and etch, but generally people are using the same equipment. But it's how you put it together, the recipe, the steps. There's a lot to it. There's a lot of trial and error. So if you're ahead, you have a big advantage.
追赶真的很难。而他们赶上来是因为英特尔犯了一个重大错误，主要是因为自负。但是，他们是不会像我们想的一样迅速扩展产能。而台积电的高管，包括那些与Sam Altman会面的人，也只是把他当作一个播客专家忽视了。所以，他们这些人是很难对付的。而他们不会按照世界对他们的期望那么快扩大产能。因此，我认为电力和晶圆的基本短缺，加上泡沫的创伤，希望能阻止我们再出现泡沫。所以，我乐观且希望电力、晶圆，还有互联网泡沫的创伤可以防止真正的泡沫发生，因为这对每个长期投资者来说都是敌人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's hard to catch up. And they caught up because Intel made a terrible mistake, mostly because of ego. But they're just not going to, you know, and the TSM executives, the people who met with Sam Altman, and they just missed him as a podcast pro. And so they're tough guys. And they're just not going to expand capacity as fast as the world wants them to. And so I think this fundamental shortage of watts and wafers, along with the scars of the bubble, I hope will keep us from a bubble. So I'm optimistic and hopeful that watts, wafers, and scars of the internet bubble keep a true bubble from happening because that's the enemy of every long-term investor.
我每天都努力为不同的事情心存感激。我非常认真地研究幸福科学。顺便说一下，幸福的很多因素都来源于你用来描述自己的词语。所以当别人问我过得怎么样时，我会说很好、极好、棒极了、超级棒或者非常好。就是这样，你知道吗？仅仅这样说就会让自己感觉更好。这关乎你对事物的反应，是关于欣赏海景或山景，关于室内养植物，以及关于心存感激。所以，我每天都努力让自己心存感激。以这种心态，我非常感激迈克尔·伯里。他的Substack平台就像天赐的礼物。他是一个非常聪明、智慧的人，每天都在提供非常可信的看空观点。对此我非常感激，伙计。我们需要这样的人，我们需要一个非常聪明的人充满力量地发出看空的声音。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like I try hard to be grateful every day for different things. I'm a big student of the science of happiness. Which, by the way, a lot of it comes down to the words you use to describe yourself. So when people ask how I'm doing, I'm great, awesome, fantastic, superb, or phenomenal. That's it, you know? And just saying that makes you feel better. It's about how you react to things. It's about having views of the water or mountains. It's about having indoor plants. And then it's about, like, feeling grateful. And so I make a big effort to be grateful every day. And in that spirit, I'm so grateful to Michael Burry. Like his Substack, it's a godsend. And he's a really smart, intelligent guy who's, like, making a really credible bear case every day. And I'm grateful to him, man. We want that. We want a really smart person. Incredibly banging a bearish drum.
是的，但人工智能，我的意思是，我绝对认为人工智能和太阳系的殖民化将是我一生中最令人激动的事情。甚至可能是人类历史上最令人激动的事件。我对自己所处的这个位置感到非常感激。我的很多同龄人或者那些经营科技基金的人，通常要么是早期就押注了互联网，要么是媒体分析师赌了Netflix，要么是软件投资者押注了SaaS。而对我来说，半导体是我的初恋，深度科技是我的初恋。由于人工智能的自然特性，如果人工智能改变世界，那硅芯片也将会改变世界，因为它比人类编写的确定性软件需要更多的计算资源。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, but AI, it's, I mean, I think it's, you know, for sure. AI along with, you know, the colonization of the solar system. It's going to be the most exciting things that happened in my lifetime. Maybe the most exciting things that, you know, happened in human history. And I'm so grateful for the position I'm in. A lot of my peers, or a lot of people who run tech funds in general, they started off, either they just bet on the internet early, or they bet on their media analysts who bet on Netflix, or their software investors bet on SaaS. So, for me, semiconductors are my first love. Deep tech is my first love. And the nature of AI is just, if, as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world, because it's so much more computationally intensive than software, deterministic software written by humans.
即使你给人工智能加上束缚，即使你为其设计了思维链条，即使你有多个代理，这种技术依然是概率性的，每次都会重新计算答案。这让它能够完成人类编写的软件无法做到的超人任务。但这也意味着它的计算成本极高。所以，你知道，半导体、电能消耗和晶圆是重中之重。而晶圆是我最初的热爱。我还记得在特斯拉解禁前，我参加了一个硅谷的巴士游览。我错过了首次公开募股（IPO）。不过，我一直对汽车感兴趣，就像我对战斗机、坦克和机械工程感兴趣一样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
AI, even if you put a harness on it, even if you do the chain of thought, even if you have multiple agents, it's probabilistic, and it is recomputing the answer each time. And that lets it do superhuman things that software written by humans can't do. But it does mean it's extremely computationally expensive. So just, you know, kind of semiconductors, watts and wafers are everything. And wafers are my first love. And then, you know, for sure, there was a bus tour of Silicon Valley right before Tesla came off the lockup. And I had missed the IPF. But I'd always kind of been into cars, like I was kind of into cars, like, you know, fighter jets and tanks and like mechanical engineering.
所以，大概在晚上6点有一个与特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克的会议，因为特斯拉市值大约是15亿美元。不过很多人都没来，而我去了。埃隆正在谈论从基本原理上，电动车（EV）是更优越的选择。首先，它是唯一一种核心输入具有通缩性的交通工具。一般来说，汽车里的发动机等一切东西在时间推移中会因为资源受限而变得越来越贵。但电池的价格和能量密度已经连续多年以中到高个位数的速度增长，比太阳能光伏电池效率低约200个基点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so there's like a 6:00 PM meeting with Tesla, with Elon, because, you know, it's like a $1.5 billion market cap. And a lot of people don't show up and I show up and it just, you know, Elon is talking about how from first principles, EVs are superior. First, it's the only car or type of transportation where the core inputs were deflationary. You know, the engine, everything in a car is kind of inflationary over time because we're in a resource-constrained world. But, you know, the price of a battery, the energy density of batteries have been compounding mid to high single digits for a long time, maybe 200 bps below solar photovoltaic cell efficiency.
所以，你知道，电动车会越来越便宜，而其他东西会越来越贵。因为电池可以放在底部，这不仅让车辆的重心更低，还减少了极惯性矩，这意味着电动车的操控性会比内燃机车更好。由于电动马达可以非常精确地控制每一毫秒的牵引力，电动车的加速会更快。顺便提一下，两驱的，比如前驱或后驱的电动车，它的牵引力可能比全驱的内燃机车还要好。而且你不需要在乘客的前后或中间放置一个重达800磅的金属块。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, you know, it's going to get cheaper, everything else is going to get more expensive. Because you can put the battery on the bottom, you can give it both a lower center of gravity and a lower polar moment of inertia, which means it's going to handle better than an internal combustion engine car. Because an electric motor can so precisely control millisecond by millisecond traction, it's going to accelerate faster. And by the way, a two wheel drive, you know, rear wheel, front wheel drive, EV probably has better traction than an all wheel drive ice car. And because you don't have, you don't have to put a big 800 pound block of metal either between and front of or behind the passengers.
你知道，一般的燃油车通常是前置发动机或后置发动机，而跑车则具有后置发动机的设计。由于这样的设计，它们具有特定的极化惯性矩，因此在前后都可以设计为吸能区域，以提升安全性能。比如，特斯拉在时速超过80英里的高速碰撞中的生存率要高得多，而其他电动车也很安全，但据我所知，特斯拉是迄今为止最安全的车之一。无论你如何设计燃油车，如果你驾驶的是前置发动机的车，并发生正面碰撞，那么即使有气囊和安全带也无济于事，因为前面有一个重达800磅的金属块，其运转温度可能达到1600到2000华氏度，或者1200华氏度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, all ice cars are generally front engine and rear engine with the sports car speed and rear engine. For that polar moment of inertia reason, you can have a front and rear crumples up. This just means it's going to fundamentally be safer. You know, the survival rate of Tesla's and high speed collisions over 80 miles an hour is so much higher than, you know, I'm sure other EVs are safe too. But Tesla's, you know, they are, to the best of my knowledge, by far the safest cars. And, you know, no matter how well you engineer an ice car, if you're in a front engine car and you get in a head on collision, it doesn't matter that you have an airbag and a seatbelt, because an 800 pound block of metal, you know, that's, you know, operating at whatever it is, 1600, 2000 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1200 degrees Fahrenheit.
你知道，所有X方面的极客们都会责怪我温度没有调对。你知道，旋转的，还有，就是那种非常高转速的。它会落到你腿上，把你搞死。所以它们更安全，更快，操控更好，储物空间更大，因为有前备箱和后备箱。它们更安静，噪音、振动和粗糙度（NVH）更小。我觉得这很有道理。对于我来说，最大的荣誉和乐趣就是一路见证特斯拉和NVIDIA的发展。因为当你认定一家公司非常优秀时，你总是会关注它的发展。我想没有哪个特斯拉的公开讲话稿我没读过。NVIDIA也是一样。即使在我没有关注时，我也总会上anandtech.com看看。当他们推出新的GPU时，我会阅读对比评论。我还是个重度游戏玩家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, all the X nerds will be on me for not getting the temperature right. You know, rotating and, you know, in some cases, you know, you know, very high RPMs. It's going to be in your lap and you're going to be dead. So they're safer, they're faster, they handle better, they have more storage space because the frunk and the trunk, they're quieter, they have less NVH, noise, vibration, harshness. I mean, it's so much sense to me. Like, for sure, like the greatest honor and most fun I've had is just kind of being along for the ride, for Tesla, for NVIDIA. Because when you identify an exceptional company, you always stay close to what's happening. You know, I don't think there's ever been a transcript of Tesla speaking publicly that I haven't read. Same for NVIDIA. You know, even when I wasn't covering Cine's, I would, you know, anandtech.com was a big thing. When they came out with a new GPU, I'd read the head to head and I'm a big gamer.
所以，你知道，我一直很在意。我总是想拥有最好的GPU，因为我不是一个特别好的玩家。在游戏中，人们常说年龄和狡猾可以战胜年轻和技术。在游戏里，年龄加上超强的GPU可以让你开始与年轻选手和技术高手在同一水平竞争。因为如果屏幕刷新得更快，你确实可以比对手更早看到他们。这就是为什么人们愿意为高性能GPU投入很多钱。我有幸过去25年一直密切关注NVIDIA，过去15年关注特斯拉。真是不可思议。而且，你知道，安东尼奥是特斯拉故事中的重要角色。沃尔特·艾萨克森的书中有一章专门讲他。他在第一线，影响着结果，与特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克的其他优秀团队成员一道。有原因在艾萨克森的传记中有一章叫“安东尼奥和蒂姆”。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, I always cared. I always wanted to have the best GPU because like, I'm not, I'm not a very good gamer. You know, so in gaming, you know, they say that age and treachery can overcome youth and skill. In gaming, age and an incredible GPU can help you begin to level the playing field with youth and skill. Just because if the screen refreshes faster, you literally can see your enemy first. That's why you pay for a big GPU in gaming. So I've just kind of had the incredible pleasure of, you know, literally following NVIDIA closely for the last 25 years, Tesla for the last 15 years. Nuts. And, you know, Antonio was a giant part of the Tesla story. There's a chapter about him at the Walter Isaacson, the Walter Isaacson book. You know, he was, he was on the field, having an impact on the outcome. Along with the incredibly talented people at Tesla and Elon. But there's a chapter in the Isaacson biography called Antonio and Tim for a reason.
这是因为他们做出了贡献。顺便说一下，这是他们的一件令人印象深刻的事情，因为在埃隆公司工作的工程师真的是非常出色。我认为这也是埃隆成功的一部分，尽管还没有得到充分的记录或解释，埃隆的公司总是以使命为导向。如果你是一位真正有才华的工程师，以前你的选择可能是为谷歌搜索提高点击率、为Meta的广告做出贡献、或是在Instagram上展示一位迷人的Ibiza模特。但现在，你可以专注于特斯拉的使命，比如推动世界的去碳化。毫无疑问，特斯拉和埃隆为世界去碳化所做的，比所有的环保活动家加起来都要多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's because they made a contribution. And by the way, you know, the, that's something, you know, very impressive about them, his people, because, you know, the, the engineers who work at Elon's companies, they're just exception. And I think this is part of Elon's success that is very, um, that hasn't been well documented or as well explained as it could have been is that Elon's companies are always mission oriented. And if you're a really talented engineer for a long time, your choices were, you can, you know, go work on people making people slightly more likely to click on this blue link for Google search or click on this ad for meta or show this good looking person in Ibiza in Instagram, or you can focus on decarbonizing the world, which is Tesla. For sure, Tesla and Elon have done more to decarbonize the world than all environmental activists combined.
嗯，我确实认为我们最终会实现电动汽车、太阳能和电池的普及，但我认为埃隆把电动汽车的进程加快了20到30年，这对世界和环境来说都是了不起的。SpaceX让人类成为能够在小行星撞击中生存的多行星文明，还有自由言论和人工智能理解宇宙等任务，这些都是他真心相信并为人类服务的。我认为这也是他能吸引如此优秀的工程师的一个重要原因。他工作非常努力，是为了让世界变得更美好。这也是为什么我总是很快站出来为他辩护，特别是在困难的时候。我认为历史学家会把这个时代称为“埃隆时代”。如果他像许多亿万富翁同行那样停止工作，情况就不会是这样的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I do think we would have gotten to EVs and solar and batteries eventually, but I think Elon accelerated EVs by 20 or 30 years, which was incredible for the world, for the environment. SpaceX, making humanity a multi-planetary civilization that can survive an asteroid impact X free speech X AI understanding the universe. Um, these missions, which are authentic and he believes in and serve humanity. I think a huge part of why he's able to attract such exceptional engineers, you know, he's working grueling hours to make the world better. And it's one reason like I'm always so quick to, to come to his defense, especially, you know, at when times are tough, like I think historians will look at this as the age of Elon. And if he had stopped working when so many of his, you know, sent a billionaire peers that stopped working, that wouldn't have been the case.
你知道吗，如果没有我们，就不会有星链。而且，我觉得我看到火星上的蓝色日落的机会还是蛮大的。嗯，你知道，我们在美国的碳排放量已经显著下降，人均排放量已经回到了类似1925年的水平。所以，这就是其中一个原因，我觉得我们都应该感到感激，这真的是一件鼓舞人心的事。我还想谈谈你提到的一个观点，你说你是一个游戏玩家，你玩电子游戏。我记得你在和Patrick的一个播客中，把游戏中的人工智能比作人类互动的一种形式，并借用了摩尔定律来进行比较。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, we, there wouldn't be Starlink. We wouldn't, you know, I think the odds are pretty high that I'm going to be able to see a blue sunset on Mars. Um, you know, we wouldn't, you know, have, I think, you know, bent the curve on emissions, the way we've really bent the curve in America, you know, emissions in America on a per capita basis or like, like, like, like, you know, 1925 levels. Um, like, so just, you know, that's one reason. Like, I just like, we should all be grateful. It's, it's truly inspiring. And I wanted to touch on the point you made about, um, you said you were a gamer. You said you played video games and you, I think in a podcast with Patrick, you compared AI video games of like the form of human engagement, writing Moore's law.
嗯，我有兴趣知道你认为在人类创造力方面，有哪些是未来无法替代的。我不确定人类创造力是否真的是不可替代的。首先，已经发生的事情，我不知道，也许人类没有什么是无法替代的。嗯，你知道，Elon 说过，人类可能只是数字超级智能的生物引导器。而且我认为，很重要的是，作为人类，我们，也尤其是你，Amir，我们可能需要为许多人寻找新的意义来源。对许多人来说，工作一直是他们的意义所在。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I'm interested in where you think human creativity remains irreplaceable going forward. I don't know that it is irreplaceable. I mean, first of all, what's happened with, um, I don't know, it may be that nothing about humans is irreplaceable. Um, you know, Elon says it may turn out that humans are the biological bootloader for digital super intelligence. Um, and I think it's going to be very important, you know, as humans that we, you know, especially for you, Amir that like, you know, we may have to find new sources of meaning for so many people. Work has been their source of meaning.
嗯，我学到的一件事是，当埃隆说什么时，要认真对待。他提到工作会变得可有可无，金钱会失去意义，我觉得这是一个很真实的可能性。安东尼奥讲到的是《星际迷航》那样的未来或《终结者》那样的未来。我非常支持《星际迷航》那样的未来，我可能会稍微修改一下，让它更接近伊恩·班克斯文化系列书中描绘的未来人类的愿景，那些书真是太棒了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and one thing I've learned is, you know, when, when Elon says something to take it seriously, and just when he says, you know, work will become optional and money will become meaningless. You know, I think that's a real possibility. Um, you know, Antonio talks about the Star Trek future or the Terminator future. And like, I'm so here for the Star Trek future and I might modify it a little bit to be the, um, you know, the vision of future for humanity described in Ian Banks culture books, which are fantastic.
在短期内，人工智能将对视频游戏平台产生惊人的影响。因此，我认为人们对人工智能在视频游戏中的影响有很大的误解。人工智能的世界模型将使游戏开发成本降低90%。举例来说，过去若制作像《使命召唤》这样的顶级游戏需要3亿美元、2亿美元或1亿美元，那么现在这些成本将减少90%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but look in the short term, AI is going to be amazing for the video game platforms. So I think AI is impact on video games is going to be, has been very misunderstood. AI world models are going to lower the cost of developing a game by 90%. You know, you know, if it used to cost 300 million to make a triple A title, like call of duty or 200 million or a hundred million, or whatever the number is goes down 90%.
嗯，所以这对制作电子游戏的公司来说可能会非常不利，因为你将面临更多的竞争。但如果你是一家游戏平台——众所周知这些平台是什么——这对你来说将是极好的，因为会有大量内容涌现。不过，认为我们将在未来五到七年内用人工智能在手机上渲染视频游戏，而不是使用每部手机、每个iPad、每台电脑上的GPU，这种想法是很荒谬的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and so this might end up being really bad, um, for companies that make, that make video games, cause you're gonna have a lot more competition. But if you were a video game platform, and we all know what those platforms are, this is going to be really good for you because there's going to be an explosion of content. But the idea that we are going to use AI to render a video game on the phone instead of the GPU that is on every phone, every iPad, every PC in the next five to seven years is ridiculous.
你知道，听我说，人工智能就像，我清楚地记得Eric Schmidt在2010或2011年时说过，永远不要低估互联网，永远不要低估人工智能。是的。但在可预见的未来，电子游戏还是会在本地的引擎上运行。比如《Monopoly Go》这款游戏，我们有它的收入和玩家玩的时间数据，而如果用像Bay of three这样的价格来渲染它的话，成本要远远超过它的收入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But you know, listen, AI is like, I vividly remember Eric Schmidt when he was 2010, 2011 saying never bet against the internet, never bet, bet against AI. Yeah. But for the foreseeable future, video games are going to be played on engines, rendered locally. Um, you know, Monopoly Go is a game where we have the revenue and the hours played and it is to render it using list prices for something like Bay of three, um, you know, is more than two orders of magnitude greater than its revenue.
嗯，人类创造力的角色是什么呢？我也不太清楚。我希望的是，像Neuralink这样的公司非常令人兴奋的原因之一，以及Elon所说创立它的理由，是为了帮助生物智能（即人类）与数字智能共存。因为人类大脑的奇妙之处在于，我们可以在各种AI基准测试中取得惊人的成绩，而我们只用20或30瓦的能量。相比之下，那些模型的训练需要成百上千兆瓦的能量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so what is the role for human creativity, man? I don't know. I don't know. Like what I, what I hope, you know, one of the reasons Neuralink is such an exciting company and the Elon stated reason for invading it is to help biological intelligences, i.e. humans coexist with digital intelligences. Because what's amazing about the human brain is, you know, we can, you know, get incredible scores on all these AI benchmarks and we do it with 20 or 30 Watts, you know, you're, you know, it's like, uh, hundreds of megawatts of training to train that model.
然后，在进行推理时，所需的能耗远远超过20或30瓦。所以，我们的大脑在能量消耗和效率上非常出色。而在这个能源受限的世界里，我乐观地认为，我将长期有价值。我也乐观地相信，你也会如此，Amir。O'Reilly：希望如此，希望如此。但我的意思是，对于所有与AI相关的事情，一个正确的态度是，你需要以非常谦逊的心态来接触AI。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then way more than 20 or 30 Watts for the inference. So we are extremely energy and efficient, our minds. And in a watt and energy constrained world, I am optimistic that, um, I will have value for a long time. And I'm optimistic that you will too, Amir. Um, O'Reilly: Hopefully, hopefully, but I mean, the right answer for everything related to AI is, you know, maybe you need to approach AI with a lot of humility.
Neuralink 存在的目的就是解决人类的信息输入和输出问题。就像我喜欢看文字记录而不是听别人讲话，因为阅读速度比听讲话要快。这就是信息输入输出（IO）的问题。如果 Neuralink 能够解决这个问题，让我们以比说话、写作或打字更快的速度获取和输出信息，那将会是一个巨大的突破。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, um, so, but anyways, Neuralink, what exists to do is, you know, humans, we have an IO problem, you know, in the same way, I like to read transcripts rather than listen to someone talk because I can read faster. They can speak. That's an IO problem. And Neuralink, if it fixes that IO problem and lets us take in information and output information at a much higher rate than speech writing or typing.
嗯，如果你仔细想想，那些就是方法。再加上所有在人与人互动中起作用的非语言信号。这将是一个很大的突破。但是，阿米尔，还有其他的事情我想谈谈，因为我觉得自己没有充分强调，那就是坚韧和毅力的重要性，以及了解自己。在生活中会遇到非常困难的时刻。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, which if you think about it, or those are the, those are the ways that's it. Um, along with all the nonverbal cues that go into human interaction. Like that'll be a big unlock, but Amir, something else, like I do just want to, um, talk about, because I feel like I didn't hit it enough. It's just the importance of resilience and tenacity and knowing yourself and, um, just, there's going to be really hard times.
作为一名投资者，我认为你的目标应该是达到一个理想的状态。你可以通过一些参照物，比如一本你读过的书，或者回顾和重读早期职业生涯中的日记，来保持这种状态。在我职业生涯的大幅回撤期，我总是会想到《完美风暴》这部电影，也就是我在回撤期间读过的另一本书。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you has, I think, as an investor, your goal should be to get to a place and, you know, having a touchstone, like a book that you read, um, remembering, going back and reading the journal, you know, um, you know, times, you know, earlier in my career, when I was in a big drawdown, I'd always think of, if you've seen the movie, The Perfect Storm, The Perfect Storm was actually another movie that I would read, that I would, uh, another book that I read, um, during drawdowns.
嗯，这部电影中有一个很棒的场景，乔治·克鲁尼在里面。当时天空暂时放晴，他们感到乐观，沐浴在阳光下，但很快又变得昏暗。乔治·克鲁尼说：“她不会让我们出去的。”然后浪又大了起来。有些时候，特别是在你的职业生涯早期，你可能也会有这种感觉。但你需要有一个机制和系统来应对。对我来说，这就是锻炼、回到那些可靠的支撑点、回顾我在其他低谷期写下的笔记。在这样的时刻，你不应该紧张或畏缩，而是要放松心情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and there's a great scene in the movie where George Clooney, you know, the sky's briefly clear and they get optimistic and they're in the sun and then it gets dark again. And George Clooney says, she's not going to let us out and the waves get big again. And there's times when you were in a drawdown, um, particularly early in your career where, um, you know, you feel like that and you just have to have a mechanism and a system. For me, it's exercise. It's returning to these touchstones. It's looking back at notes I wrote and other drawdowns where instead of, you know, getting tense and choking up on the bat, you relax.
然后呢，还有另一件在心理上很有帮助的事情。虽然这对我职业生涯早期来说很重要，但那时我正经历一段非常艰难的时期。嗯，我记得是在加入制药基金的第一个月之后，Weimer对我说：“听着，你得明白，在投资中，处于底部的十分位和处于顶部的十分位在统计上同样困难，因为这具有概率性。即使你非常努力想处在底部的十分位，也可能不会真的到达那个位置。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then what, and then another psychologically helpful thing, although like this was important to me earlier in my career, but, but I was going through a really tough time. Um, I actually think it was after the first month on the Pharma Fund. Weimer said, listen, man, you got to realize it's just as statistically difficult to be at the bottom decile as it is to be at the top decile, like investing, because it's probabilistic. Even if you try really hard to be in the bottom decile, you might not end up there in the same way.
如果你努力争取进入前10%，你可能最终达不到这个目标。不过，这个想法对我很重要，尤其是在全球金融危机期间。我常常对自己重复这句话。但我认为，在经历亏损并应对它时，你需要了解自己，拥有适合自己独特情感构造的理念和流程，这样即使在判断出错时，你也能做出良好而高质量的决定。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you try really hard to be in the top decile, you might not end up there. Um, but that thought was important to me, um, particularly during the GFC. I'd quote to that, that to myself a lot, but I think in going through a drawdown and dealing with it, you have to, this goes down, this, this comes back to knowing thyself and having a philosophy and process that fits your own unique emotional makeup, such that you can make good high quality decisions when you're wrong.
从定义上来说，如果你正在经历亏损，那么你就是错了，这就是全部。你知道吗，我不是那种会说“只是时机不对，不算错”的人。乔治·范德·海登，一位富达的基金经理，曾说过：过早介入实际上就等同于犯错。如果你在赔钱，那就是错了。这不是市场愚蠢，也不是人们遗漏了什么，错的是你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And definitionally, like if you're in a drawdown, you were wrong, like full stop. You know, I'm not one of these people. Oh, it's just early. It's not wrong. You know, George van der Heiden, fidelity PM being early is the same thing as being wrong. If you're losing money, you're wrong. Okay. Um, you know, and it's not that the market is being stupid. It's not that people are missing something you're wrong.
你做出了什么决定？嗯，詹妮弗，詹妮弗是我之前提到的那位女性，她是一位很好的朋友和导师。她常说一句话，我总是会想起，作为投资者，最终你要么提前恐慌，要么在后期加码，而基本上没人会同时做这两件事。此外，要了解自己。我不是一个会提前恐慌的人，而是一个在后期加码的人。我觉得认识到这一点帮助我度过了回撤或者表现不佳的艰难时期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What decision do you make? Um, but Jennifer, Jennifer, you're the, the woman I referenced earlier is such a good friend and a mentor. She had this phrase that I just always think about ultimately has an investor. You either have to panic early or double down late and essentially no one does both. Um, and know thyself. And I am not a panic early person. I'm a double down late person. And I think knowing that is something that kind of helps me go through a drawdown or a tough period of performance.
这段话可以翻译为中文如下：
“那是什么，它用了多长时间让你认识自己呢？你是在什么时候了解自己的，或者你认为自己了解自己了吗？嗯，我是在25岁的时候，因为在制药行业的经历中找到了自我。是啊，当你从科技行业的明星角色、被提拔然后收获许多荣誉的时候，可能只有23或24岁，由于年轻和稚嫩，你开始相信其中一些赞美。但是很快就从部门中的明星直接跌入谷底，成为最低谷的人。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And what does it, how long did it take you to know, know yourself? Well, at what point did you know yourself or do you think you know yourself? Um, well, I had to find out who I was when I blew up on pharma at the age of 25. Yeah. Um, you know, when you go from, you know, having been such a star on tech and, um, you know, promoted early and, you know, you get all these accolades and you're like 23 or 24 and because you're, you're, you're young and silly, you start to believe some of them go immediately from the, you know, kind of a, a big star in the department to literally like, you know, the lowest of the low.
是的，这很难。当你处于资金回撤阶段时，你会感觉到每个错误在事后看来都显得如此明显。这也是为什么我认为，对于年轻投资者来说，最好的事情就是早期经历这样的挫折，因为这种情况迟早会发生。而越早经历，你下一次就能更好地应对。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. It's hard. Like when you're in a drawdown, like it's, you know, you feel, you know, you feel, you know, every time, you know, hindsight's always 20, 20. So the mistakes seem so obvious. Yeah. Um, um, and that's why I just think if you were a young investor, the best thing that can happen to you is having an experience like that early because it's going to happen. And the earlier it happens to you, the better you will navigate it the next time.
从定义上讲，几乎每次经历那样的艰难时期时，如果处理不当，后果往往会更加严重，因为如果你的职业生涯在不断成功，那么你会承担越来越重要的工作。所以我感到很幸运。比如，制药行业对我来说是一个非常重要的领域，而我在这个领域很早就经历了这种令人谦卑的体验。我必须去摸索和解决问题，这对我来说并不是显而易见的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And definitionally, almost every time you go through a tough period like that, the consequences for not navigating it well are higher because if you're succeeding in your career, you're getting more and more important jobs. So I just feel lucky. And I mean, look, pharma was a very important sector that I had that humbling experience so early, you know, and I, I had to figure it out. It's not like this was obvious to me.
好的。这段话大意是：是的，我意识到自己以前有点骄傲，然后我想到了关于骄傲的书——《多样性的巫师》。我读了那本书，书中讲述了一个人，这个人一开始是叫"喷气"，并且书里强调这不是关于他作为著名大法师时的故事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Like I like happened, I was feeling, I was feeling conscious of how prideful I had been. And I thought, oh, a book about pride is the wizard of diversity. And I read that and it's about, you know, the guy who, you know, the, it begins with, you know, this is, you know, it's, it's the, the jet is his name and it's, you know, this is not, these are not the stories when he was a famous archmage.
这不是一个关于他如何驯服这条龙的故事，而是一个关于他年轻时彻底失败的故事。你知道的，这是一本关于由于自负而导致完全失败，然后走出困境的书。所以我大概是在经历艰难时期九个月后读到的这本书。然后我意识到，与其在星期六早上5点起床工作，倒不如去举重或跑步。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
These are not the stories of how he tamed this dragon. This is a story of when he was a young man and failed utterly, you know, so it's a book about utter failure due to ego and then coming out of it. So I probably read that like nine months into like a really tough time. And then, like, I realized, you know what, like, instead of like waking up at 5am on Saturday and working, you know, I'm going to lift weights or go for a run.
这让你感觉好多了。因此，你必须通过不断尝试来找到适合自己情感特质的哲学和方法。在经历困难时期时，你需要找到适合自己的方式。而最终，你需要自己去完成这一过程。几乎每个人每隔两三年或四年都会经历非常艰难的时期。你希望能达到一个状态，我乐观地认为我现在就处于这样的状态，那就是因为有了大量的数据可以借鉴——看看，我以前经历过这些，并做出了高质量的决策——你的决策质量实际上会提高。这样你会感到非常自信，而不是畏首畏尾。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then that makes you feel better. So you have to trial and error the same way you have to find a philosophy and process that suits your own emotional makeup. You have to find what works for you when you're going through a tough period of performance. Um, and ultimately you have to do it yourself. Almost everyone is going to go through a really tough time every two, three or four years. And you want to get to a point, which I feel like I'm, I'm optimistic that I'm now there where the decision quality actually improves because you have a bunch of data that why look at all these times I've done this, I've been here before and I made high quality decisions. Um, and so you're at your most confident instead of at your most gun shy.
嗯，这就是为什么我认为讨论这些内容非常重要。我觉得这并不是一个特别好的结束语，但可以继续以你的投资建议方式展开。我有一个问题会在每一集节目中问，我现在16岁。如果你要给今天的16岁的人提供一条建议，不论是关于生活的、事业的，Jeff，如果你有任何关于浪漫的建议，那它会是什么呢？嗯，我是家里最大的一个堂表兄妹，我姑姑和叔叔们对我的评价还不错。所以我被邀请在很多场高中和大学的毕业晚宴上发言，尤其是那些年轻的堂表兄妹们的毕业晚宴。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, that's why I thought it was just kind of important to talk about a hundred percent. And I think this isn't one of the better ending notes standoff on of to keep going with your line of advice to an investor. This is the one question I ask every single episode and I'm 16 right now. If you'd give one piece of advice to a 16 year old today, life advice, career advice, Jeff, if you ask any romantic advice, what would it be? Um, well, so I am the oldest cousin, um, in my, I guess my aunts and uncles generally think well of me. So I have gotten asked to speak at an innumerable, innumerable number of high school graduation dinners, you know, college graduation dinners for like some of the younger cousins.
我总是给出相同的建议：要善良，也要有拼劲。很多善良的人不够有拼劲，而很多有拼劲的人却不够善良。我认为善良是非常有力量的。在这个世界上存在因果报应。我经历过一些艰难时刻，你并不总是能在第一时间看到结果，但如果你对别人友善，很多人会回报你的好意。我的原则是这样：我会先抛出一次橄榄枝，如果对方没有回应，我会再尝试一次；如果仍无回应，我就不会再主动了。这样你最终就会聚集在一群志同道合的人中，相互帮助，彼此合作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I always give the same advice, be kind and be scrappy. A lot of people who are kind are not scrappy. And a lot of people are scrappy or not kind. And I think being kind is super powerful. Um, there is karma in the world. Like I've, I've had hard experiences and you don't always know it, but if you are, um, if you're kind to people, a lot of people pay it back. And then the great thing is like my rule of someone is I'll bounce the ball once to anyone. If they don't bounce it back, I'll bounce it back one more time and then never again. And then you end up kind of in a group of like-minded people who help each other, who cooperate.
你知道，现在有很多像“kairatsu”这样类型的冒险。我是在一个“kairatsu”中，Antonio 是我所在的“kairatsu”里非常重要的一部分。我对他和他的合作伙伴充满感激，因为他们为我做了很多。不过，你最终会遇到志趣相投的人。我觉得这点很重要，特别是对年轻人来说，因为我们常看到很多圆滑的人不断取得成功。当然，有些圆滑的人确实达到了顶峰，但善良的人同样可以成功。我认为这一点不应该被低估。这就是我想说的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, there's a lot of these kairatsu adventure kind of for sure. I'm in a kairatsu. Um, you know, Antonio is like a very important part of the kairatsu that I am in. Um, and I opened and his partners so much, and I'm so grateful to them for so much, but, um, you end up with like-minded people. And I think it's an important thought because particularly as a young person, you see a lot of sharky people getting ahead. And for sure, some sharks end up at the top. Um, but the kind people can succeed too. And I just wouldn't underestimate it. So that's one.
第二件事是非常重要的，比如史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼的自传对我来说意义重大，因为他谈到了他创建基金时的艰难经历。有一个关于黑石的著名场景，他和彼得·彼得森去拜访波士顿一个非常有声望的捐赠基金。当时彼得森是美国金融界的风云人物之一。那是一个炎热的周五下午，捐赠基金的人都已经走了，他们被彻底冷落，接着开始下大雨。那是在没有Uber的时代，所以他们不得不走回去，最终还遇到了洪水。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Second thing is like most important thing, like, um, Steve Schwartzman's biography is meaningful to me because he talked about how hard it was for him to start the fund. You know, there was a Blackstone, there's a famous scene where him and Pete Peterson, who's like one of, was one of the icons of American finance at the time. They had gone to see a very prestigious endowment in, in Boston. And I was on a hot Friday afternoon and everybody at the endowment had left. They got completely blown off and then it started pouring rain. And these are in the days of, of pre Uber. And so they have to walk home and, and eventually it floods.
他们回到了酒店，路上水已经淹到了膝盖。他们正在创建一家投资公司。这是一件很困难的事，就像做一名投资者需要很大的毅力、韧性和决心一样。创办一家投资公司同样不容易。我记得史蒂夫·施瓦兹曼曾说过，当你踏入投资银行、私募股权公司或类似富达的公司时，你正在建立你的声誉，这是你无法完全理解的。他人会记住你在二十多岁时的行为和表现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so they walk home to their hotel and water up to their knees. And it is starting an investment firm. It's hard, like being an investor that takes a lot of tenacity, resilience, and determination. It's also hard starting an investment firm. But I would say, um, the thing that Steve Schwartzman said was you are making your reputation to a degree. You do not understand when you set foot in an investment bank and a private equity firm and a firm like Fidelity. And people will remember the way that you behaved in your early, in your early twenties and your mid twenties.
他在书里说到，今天有些人在我的培训班上，他们曾经帮助过我，或者我帮助过他们。即使我们可能有20年没说话，但在我真的需要他们的专业知识时，我拿起电话，他们立刻就接了，反之亦然。我觉得这是一个很重要的想法，希望能帮助大家避免过于竞争。投资是一个正和游戏，而不是零和游戏。即使你不是高盛、摩根士丹利或摩根大通班上最优秀的人，也没关系。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, he said in the book, you know, today there are people who are in my training class and I helped them or they helped me. And, you know, we might not have spoken for 20 years, but then there comes a time when I really need their expertise. I pick up the phone, they answer right away and vice versa. And I think this is also a very important thought and one that I hope can help, you know, people, you know, avoid sharkiness. It's not investing is a positive sum game. It's not a zero sum game. Even if you're not the best person in your class at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan, you know, it's going to be okay.
嗯，人们不会记得你曾经是最优秀的，他们记得的是你如何对待同班同学的。所以我觉得这是一种重要的观念。嗯，我会说要善良，要有拼劲，相信世界上有因果。只有在你真正热爱的时候才去做投资者。如果在首次经历业绩低谷时，你发现自己很难在情感和心理上保持平衡，那么可能公共市场投资不适合你。你可以选择私募股权投资，那里的情感波动没有那么大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and people won't remember that you were the best. They don't remember how you treated the other people in your class. So I think that's, that's an important thought. Um, yeah, I'd say be kind, be scrappy, um, trust that there is karma in the world. Um, and only be an investor if you love it. And if the first time you go through a really tough period of performance, you, you kind of can't find a way to be, um, emotionally and psychologically centered, like maybe, you know, maybe public markets investing isn't for you. You know, you can go to private equity where there's just not the emotional volatility.
嗯，是的，我想说的是，在我刚读完的《Sun Eater》系列—一个很棒的科幻小说系列中，主角经常重复的一句箴言是“追求磨难”。尤其是作为一个公开市场投资者，你在职业生涯早期就应该经历一些磨难，因为无论你多么出色，你都会遇到挑战。在Alpha Architect的一篇文章里提到，即使是上帝也会在作为一个主动经理时被解雇。你会遇到困难，而你在这些困难时期所做的决定将定义你的职业生涯。就这样，兄弟。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, yeah, I would just, um, you know, in the, um, in the sun eater series that I just finished great science fiction series, one of the mantras that the main character repeats is seek hardship and you want hardship early in your career, especially as a public market investor, because no matter how good you are, you are going to encounter it. Going back to that paper that he's by alpha architect, even God would get fired as an active manager. You're going to encounter hit hardship and the decisions you make during those times will define your career. Full stop, man.
这是一次我非常享受的对话，我真的很感激。很高兴我们能够让这次交流成为现实。嗯，我真的很高兴能在这里，并且我必须说，请一定在节目中保留这一点：我非常钦佩你的拼搏精神。你真的是很有韧性的人。我记得你大概发了上百封邮件我才回复你，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One of the more enjoyable conversations I've had. I really appreciate it. I'm so glad we can make this happen. Yeah, but, um, I really enjoyed this to be here and just, man, I just got to say, and please keep this in the episode. I so admire the hustle. You are scrappy, man. You are scrappy. And like you took, I mean, I think it probably took you a hundred emails before I responded to you, you know?
嗯，顺便说一下，这里有另一个建议。如果你是个年轻人，并且想要得到一个你不认识的人的指导，第一点，你必须要有毅力，不能轻言放弃。第二点，尽量提供价值。就像彼得·林奇提到的那样，你可能知道一些你的导师不知道的信息，比如很多酷酷的年轻人开始穿阿迪达斯的Samba Nova鞋，或者他们不再穿乔丹鞋了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and by the way, here's another piece of advice. It is like, if you were a young person and you want to be mentored by somebody you don't know, like point number one is you got to be persistent. You can't give up quickly. Point number two, try and deliver value. You know, like going back to that Peter Lynch concept, you know, if you're a young person, you know, things that the people who you want to mentor, you don't know, you know, maybe, you know, whatever, you know, that, uh, a lot of the cool kids have started wearing the Adidas, you know, Samba Nova's or whatever it is, or that the cool kids aren't wearing hair Jordans anymore.
虽然我是一个忠实的迈克尔·乔丹粉丝，但我想说，当你在寻求回报时，请努力去提供价值。我认为这点非常重要，也是我之前就隐约意识到的原则：给予总是要多于索取。如果你要请求什么，确保在这之前你已经付出很多。首先，我尊重你的努力和坚持。我也认为这是一个很好的建议。谁知道这究竟是不是个好建议，但，嗯，是的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Although I am a Michael Jordan maximalist. Um, but, um, so, you know, something and try and try and deliver value when you're asking for value. I think this is also something very important and that I kind of intuited earlier, like always give more than you get. If you're gonna ask for something, make sure that you've given a lot before you ask for something. So one, I respect your hustle. I respect the persistence. And I do think that's another good piece of advice. I mean, who knows if it's good, good advice or not, but, um, yeah, man.