TIVP087 (Video): DLocal (DLO): Multibagger Potential with Decade-Long Runway w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
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以下是内容的中文翻译：
DLocal是一家乌拉圭B2B支付公司，尽管财务表现强劲，其估值却仅为十几倍市盈率，展现出诱人的投资前景。该公司拥有超过50%的年营收增长、高盈利能力以及稳健的资产负债表。DLocal战略性地处于两大重要大趋势的交汇点：新兴市场（EM）的快速增长和数字化，以及全球科技巨头（如MAG7）向这些地区的扩张。作为这一机遇的有力证明，曾担任美客多（MercadoLibre）25年首席财务官的佩德罗·阿恩特（Pedro Arndt）辞去原职，出任DLocal的首席执行官，这凸显了他对公司潜力的信心。
DLocal的核心服务是提供一个单一的API接口，使全球商家（例如亚马逊、Meta、Netflix、优步）能够在超过60个新兴市场中接受当地支付。这至关重要，因为传统的西方支付系统，如Visa和MasterCard，在新兴市场中并非普遍流行或效率低下。许多新兴市场已采用本地银行间转账系统（例如巴西的PIX、印度的UPI），这些系统在国内交易中快速且便宜，但难以处理跨境支付或定期订阅。DLocal通过应对支离破碎的监管环境、复杂的税收规定以及这些国家多样化的本地支付方式，弥补了这一差距。对于大型科技公司而言，这消除了其设立本地运营和获取众多许可证所需的巨大成本和精力。
该公司的投资论点基于新兴市场日益增长的财富和数字化普及，结合其大型科技客户的全球扩张努力，从而实现受益。佩德罗·阿恩特强调，DLocal是对新兴市场数字化转型的一次“双层”押注，它借助成熟可靠的科技巨头的成功而发展。
尽管DLocal的总支付额（TPV）增长令人印象深刻（2023年同比增长60%，达到400亿美元），但其总抽成率已从2020年的2.9%下降到目前的0.9%。首席执行官佩德罗·阿恩特将此视为一项战略决策，旨在优先发展交易量，通过向大型商家提供折扣，建立深厚合作关系并确保未来增长。他认为DLocal的运营杠杆将导致净利润增长快于毛利润，从而抵消抽成率下降的影响。这一战略得到了增值服务的支持，例如“智能PIX/APM”——它支持本地支付方式的定期付款（显著提高转化率），以及“智能路由”——它动态优化交易路径以提高批准率。
DLocal的竞争优势不一定在于独特的产品功能，而在于其*规模、监管专业知识和管理碎片化的能力*。在60多个市场运营，拥有众多本地集成和许可证，这形成了强大的进入壁垒。尽管存在Stripe和Adyen等西方竞争对手，但他们的模式通常更适合信用卡主导的市场，而DLocal的横向方法在优化多样化的本地支付渠道方面表现出色。由于这些公司自行开发（支付系统）的机会成本很高，因此大型客户自行开发的风险被认为较低。稳定币虽然可能使结算成本更低，但仍需要DLocal的“最后一公里”专业知识，以将其转换为当地法币并确保合规。
2022年，浑水公司（Muddy Waters）的一份做空报告导致DLocal的股价下跌50%。关于TPV虚报和资金混用的指控，在独立审查后被大体驳斥；而内部人抛售则被解释为与股票高IPO估值相关。尽管存在监管复杂性，特别是在阿根廷等波动较大的市场，但DLocal仍表现出韧性，没有商家流失。
在财务方面，DLocal预计2026年毛利润增长30%，并预计到2028年，TPV的复合年增长率（CAGR）将接近40%。管理层的资本配置包括一项新的3亿美元股票回购计划以及30%的自由现金流股息支付，这表明了其信心并向股东回报资本。该股目前15倍市盈率的估值提供了一个有吸引力的切入点，在基本情景下，预计年回报率可达22%。尽管DLocal面临市场集中度高和抽成率压力等风险，但其在新兴市场的独特地位和强大的领导力使其成为一项引人注目的长期投资。
DLocal, a Uruguayan B2B payments company, presents a compelling investment case, trading at a mid-teens multiple despite robust financials. It boasts over 50% annual top-line growth, high profitability, and a strong balance sheet. The company is strategically positioned at the intersection of two significant megatrends: the rapid growth and digitalization of emerging markets (EM) and the expansion of global tech giants (like the MAG7) into these regions. A testament to this opportunity, Pedro Arndt, former CFO of MercadoLibre for 25 years, left his position to become DLocal's CEO, highlighting his belief in the company's potential.
DLocal's core service is to provide a single API that enables global merchants (e.g., Amazon, Meta, Netflix, Uber) to accept local payments in over 60 emerging markets. This is crucial because traditional Western payment systems like Visa and MasterCard are not universally prevalent or efficient in EMs. Many EMs have adopted local bank-to-bank transfer systems (e.g., PIX in Brazil, UPI in India) that are fast and cheap for domestic transactions but don't easily handle cross-border payments or recurring subscriptions. DLocal bridges this gap by navigating the fragmented regulatory landscapes, complex tax rules, and diverse local payment methods across these countries. For major tech companies, this eliminates the immense cost and effort of setting up local operations and obtaining numerous licenses.
The company's investment thesis rests on benefiting from the increasing wealth and digital adoption in EMs, combined with the global expansion efforts of its large tech clients. Pedro Arndt emphasizes DLocal as a "double layer" bet on EM digital transformation, riding the success of established, reliable tech giants.
While DLocal exhibits impressive Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth (60% YoY to $40 billion in 2023), its gross take rate has declined from 2.9% in 2020 to 0.9% today. CEO Pedro Arndt views this as a strategic decision to prioritize volume, offering discounts to large merchants to build deep relationships and secure future growth. He believes DLocal's operational leverage will lead to net profits growing faster than gross profits, offsetting the declining take rate. This strategy is supported by value-added services like "Smart PIX/APMs," which enable recurring payments for local methods (boosting conversion rates significantly), and "Smart Routing," which dynamically optimizes transaction paths for higher approval rates.
DLocal's competitive advantage lies not necessarily in unique product features but in its *scale, regulatory expertise, and ability to manage fragmentation*. Operating in 60+ markets with numerous local integrations and licenses creates a substantial barrier to entry. While Western competitors like Stripe and Adyen exist, their models are often better suited for credit card-dominated markets, whereas DLocal's horizontal approach excels in optimizing diverse local payment rails. The risk of large clients building in-house is deemed low due to the high opportunity cost for these companies. Stablecoins, while potentially making settlement cheaper, still require DLocal's "last mile" expertise to convert to local fiat and ensure compliance.
In 2022, a short seller report from Muddy Waters caused DLocal's stock to drop 50%. Claims of overstated TPV and commingling funds were largely debunked by an independent review, and insider selling was contextualized by the stock's high IPO valuation. Despite regulatory complexities, particularly in volatile markets like Argentina, DLocal has demonstrated resilience, with no merchants leaving.
Financially, DLocal is guiding for 30% gross profit growth for 2026, with an expected TPV CAGR of nearly 40% through 2028. Management's capital allocation includes a new $300 million share buyback program and a 30% free cash flow dividend payout, demonstrating confidence and returning capital to shareholders. The stock's current valuation at 15 times earnings offers an attractive entry point, with a base case scenario suggesting a 22% expected annual return. Although DLocal faces risks from market concentration and take-rate pressures, its unique position in emerging markets and strong leadership make it a compelling long-term investment.
摘要
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into DLocal (NASDAQ: DLO), the first Uruguayan unicorn and the emerging markets payment provider for companies like Amazon, Uber, Spotify, Netflix, and many more. DLocal is trading at attractive multiples while growing payment volumes at over 70% and printing cash due to high operating leverage and a high-margin business model. That cash is given back to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.
Daniel and Shawn discuss whether the high customer concentration and the declining take rate justify the cheap valuation or whether the market is not understanding the full potential of this emerging market jewel. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether DLO deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:04) How DLO became the leading player in emerging markets
(00:06:16) What makes DLO’s business model stand out
(00:14:20) What two megatrends DLO benefits from
(00:26:41) Whether there is a race to the bottom with take rates
(00:50:37) How DLO compares to Western competition
(00:56:58) How DLocal distributes cash to shareholders
(01:13:26) Valuation discussion of DLO
(01:16:05) Whether DLO is valued attractively
(01:17:44) Whether Shawn and Daniel add DLO to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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