TIVP064: Kelly Partners Group: The Constellation Software of Accounting? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

以下是内容的中文翻译： Kelly Partners Group (KPG) 是一家澳大利亚的连续并购公司，专注于会计和税务业务，被形容为尚处于其发展历程的“早期阶段”。尽管其股价自2025年高点以来近期下跌了50%，但该公司收入复合增长率达到了25%，这使得其估值多年来首次变得具有吸引力。该公司目前的市值约为3亿澳元（约合2亿美元）。 KPG由布拉德·凯利（Brad Kelly）创立，他持有该公司近50%的股份。KPG采用“合伙人-所有者-运营者”模式。这意味着KPG收购目标会计师事务所51%的控股权，而现有合伙人保留49%的股份并继续运营业务。这种结构激励了原所有者继续参与，并确保了他们拥有重要的“利益攸关”（投入实实在在的利益），从而解决了并购策略中常见的挑战——即关键人员在获得报酬后可能离开的问题。KPG的收购对象通常是中小型事务所（收入在200万至500万澳元之间），资金通常通过现金流和债务筹集，债务部署在运营业务层面，并在4-5年内偿还。其目标是以中个位数市盈率收购事务所。 被收购的事务所通过加入KPG获益匪浅。他们可以利用KPG的集中式系统、后台解决方案（市场营销、人力资源、合规）以及专有知识产权，为此他们需支付9%的收入费用。这使得合伙人能够减轻行政负担，并将多达40%的时间投入到高利润的咨询工作或客户开发中。这种效率提升有助于KPG将所收购事务所的EBITDA利润率从行业平均的18-19%提高到KPG的目标35%。此外，KPG还为传承问题提供了解决方案，允许初级员工在创始合伙人退休或减少工作量时，在KPG的支持下承担领导职务。 会计和税务服务市场高度分散，许多业主正步入退休年龄。仅在澳大利亚，就有60%的会计业务业主计划在五年内退休，这代表了大约2万个潜在的收购目标。扩展到美国和英国后，这一数字推高至9万家企业，表明存在巨大的收购机会。该行业的一个重要利好因素是全球税法日益复杂和数量庞大，使得专业建议变得更加不可或缺。 人工智能的潜在影响是市场关注的一个关键问题。尽管人工智能可以自动化常规合规和记账任务，但KPG认为其专注于中小型企业（SMEs）的业务为其带来了韧性。中小型企业通常需要复杂的咨询服务（例如，业务结构、信托、税务优化），在这些领域，人类专业知识、个性化建议以及注册税务顾问的“权威印章”仍然至关重要。KPG旨在利用人工智能提高常规任务的效率，从而解放专业人员从事更高价值的咨询工作。布拉德·凯利还预计，人工智能驱动的颠覆可能导致收购价格下降，因为规模较小、技术水平较低的事务所或私募股权支持的实体可能会考虑出售。KPG较年轻的劳动力人口结构（75%年龄在25-49岁之间）被视为适应新技术的优势。 在财务方面，KPG的业绩通过摊销前税后净利润（NPATA）进行监控，因为客户关系资本化产生的摊销是非现金支出。该公司拥有较高的毛利率，稳定在50%以上，远高于CBiz等竞争对手（15%）。这归因于KPG专注于以价格接受为导向、以关系为驱动的中小型企业，以及其合伙人-所有者-运营者模式的激励结构，这鼓励了成本管理和利润保护。KPG的债务管理良好，净债务与EBITDA比率通常在0.8至1.9之间，这得益于其收入的年金性质和经济弹性。 尽管股价下跌后的当前估值（NPATA市盈率在20-25倍）看起来具有吸引力，但其长期增长轨迹面临一个独特的挑战。与软件可以“无限生成”不同，会计师事务所的数量虽然庞大，但并非无限。要维持高增长率，KPG最终需要每年收购更多或更大的事务所，这在其侧重于文化契合度和质量的选择性收购标准下可能会变得困难。 布拉德·凯利的领导至关重要，尽管他计划将其持股比例降至35%以提高流动性并可能促成在美国上市，但他高比例的持股和长期承诺是积极因素。KPG已成功扩展到美国市场，目前15%的收入来自该市场。投资逻辑的关键在于信任管理层能够继续寻找合适的收购目标并有效执行其经过验证的策略。

Kelly Partners Group (KPG) is an Australian serial acquirer focused on accounting and tax businesses, described as being in the "early innings" of its journey. Despite a recent 50% stock drawdown from 2025 highs, the company's revenue has compounded at 25%, making its valuation attractive for the first time in years. The company currently has a market capitalization of approximately A$300 million (US$200 million). Founded by Brad Kelly, who owns nearly 50% of the company, KPG employs a "partner-owner-driver" model. This involves KPG acquiring a 51% controlling stake in target accounting firms, while existing partners retain 49% and continue to run the business. This structure incentivizes the original owners to remain engaged and ensures significant "skin in the game," addressing a common challenge in acquisition strategies where key personnel might otherwise leave after a payout. KPG's acquisitions are typically small to medium-sized firms (A$2-5 million in revenue) and are often financed through cash flow and debt, with debt placed at the operating business level, repaid over 4-5 years. The aim is to acquire firms at mid-single-digit earnings multiples. Acquired firms benefit significantly from joining KPG. They gain access to KPG's centralized systems, back-office solutions (marketing, HR, compliance), and proprietary IP, for which they pay a 9% revenue fee. This allows partners to offload administrative burdens and dedicate up to 40% more time to high-margin advisory work or client acquisition. This efficiency drive helps KPG boost the EBITDA margins of acquired firms from an industry average of 18-19% to KPG's target of 35%. Furthermore, KPG offers a solution for succession problems, allowing junior employees to step into leadership roles with KPG's backing when founders retire or reduce their workload. The market for accounting and tax services is highly fragmented, with many owners approaching retirement. In Australia alone, 60% of accounting business owners plan to retire within five years, representing about 20,000 potential targets. Expanding into the US and UK pushes this number to 90,000 businesses, suggesting a vast pool of acquisition opportunities. A significant tailwind for the industry is the increasing complexity and volume of tax laws globally, making professional advice more indispensable. The potential impact of AI is a key market concern. While AI can automate routine compliance and bookkeeping tasks, KPG believes its focus on small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) provides resilience. SMEs often require complex advisory services (e.g., business structures, trusts, tax optimization), where human expertise, personalized advice, and the "stamp of approval" of a certified tax advisor remain crucial. KPG aims to leverage AI for efficiency in routine tasks, freeing up professionals for higher-value advisory work. Brad Kelly also anticipates AI-driven disruption could lead to lower acquisition prices, as smaller, less tech-savvy firms or private equity-backed entities might look to sell. KPG's younger workforce demographic (75% aged 25-49) is seen as an advantage in adapting to new technologies. Financially, KPG's performance is monitored using Net Profit After Tax Before Amortization (NPATA), as amortization from client relationship capitalization is a non-cash expense. The company boasts high gross margins, consistently in the mid to high 50s, significantly higher than competitors like CBiz (15%). This is attributed to KPG's focus on price-taking, relationship-driven SMEs, and the incentive structure of its partner-owner-driver model, which encourages cost management and margin protection. KPG's debt is well-managed, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio typically between 0.8 and 1.9, supported by the annuity-based and economically resilient nature of its revenue. While the current valuation, post-drawdown, appears attractive (P/E of 20-25x NPATA), the long-term growth trajectory faces a unique challenge. Unlike software, which "spawns" endlessly, the number of accounting firms, though large, is not infinite. Sustaining high growth rates would eventually require KPG to acquire an increasing number of firms annually, or larger firms, which could become difficult given its selective acquisition criteria focused on cultural fit and quality. Brad Kelly's leadership is critical, and while he plans to reduce his stake to 35% for liquidity and potentially to enable a US listing, his high ownership and long-term commitment are positive. KPG has successfully expanded into the US, with 15% of revenue now coming from that market. The investment thesis hinges on trusting management to continue finding suitable targets and executing its proven strategy effectively.