TIVP050: Portfolio Review: Performance and New Positions w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

以下是内容的中文翻译： 经过50期节目和将近一年的时间，Intrinsic Value播客的主持人Sean O'Malley和Daniel Munker回顾了他们从零开始构建投资组合的历程。他们于2025年1月以100%现金起步，旨在展示从未投资到资金全部部署的演进过程，这是“超级投资者”投资组合中常常缺失的一个视角。 尽管存在显著的现金拖累（目前已从50%降至约25%），该投资组合仍取得了9%的不错回报。主持人承认一年时间不足以验证一项策略，但对初步表现感到满意，特别是考虑到近期对低估值公司的投资。 **投资组合亮点与变动：** * **赢家：** 最大持仓股Google上涨超过50%。Reddit表现“惊人”，一度达到三倍回报，尽管目前仅占3.5%的小仓位，但自买入以来已上涨约120%。尽管因当前估值未再增持，主持人仍将Reddit视为一只长期复合增长股，理由是其独特的社交媒体模式和强劲的变现指标。 * **新增持仓：Crocs。** 主持人决定将Crocs加入投资组合，作为2.5%的仓位，视其为“不对称机会”或价值投资。尽管销售额有所下降，这主要归因于对“Heydude”品牌的收购，但核心Crocs品牌依然稳定。凭借18%的自由现金流收益率和积极的回购（16%的收益率），其估值具有吸引力。文章讨论了管理层过去的收购失误和当前的激励措施，以及积极的内部人买入活动。 * **增持Uber。** Uber作为一只经常被讨论的公司，其仓位将增至7%或8%。主持人强调，Uber正在转型为一台“真正的现金流机器”，利润率不断提高，并拥有经营杠杆。鉴于其20%以上的增长，以18倍远期自由现金流交易被认为是便宜的。文章提到了看空理由，例如来自Waymo/Tesla的竞争以及亚马逊可能收购Lyft。主持人认为，大型科技公司过去在进入成熟市场方面的失败表明Uber的护城河比人们想象的更强大。 * **增持Adobe。** 面对AI颠覆的担忧，Adobe的股价今年以来下跌了近30%。然而，主持人强调其在企业界和创意产业的深度嵌入，以及高转换成本。他们认为AI将 *在* Adobe产品内部实现行业转型，而非对其造成损害。远期市盈率和市现率低于14倍，即使保守估计，Adobe未来五年也能提供隐含的18%年化回报。 * **出售Ulta Beauty。** 播客投资组合中的首个新增股Ulta Beauty在持有近一年后以28%的回报率出售。主持人解释说，最初的投资逻辑已经兑现，尽管它仍然是一个好公司，但目前的估值不再提供相同的“不对称”机会。资金正被重新配置到更有吸引力的标的。 * **持有Nubank。** 作为2.5%的“学习仓位”，Nubank自买入以来已增长30%。尽管对巴西消费市场存在担忧，Nubank仍展现出令人印象深刻的增长，同时保持与传统银行相当的风险指标。其在墨西哥的扩张和近期在美国的银行牌照申请都是积极信号，尽管主持人承认他们在南美银行业务方面的专业知识有限，因此持仓较小。 * **持有Nike和Lululemon。** Nike较其买入价格上涨了10%，但其转型仍在进行中。主持人建议，如果股价达到80美元但基本面没有改善，就考虑出售，同时承认可能存在“锚定效应偏见”。Lululemon目前是他们表现最差的股票（下跌20%），但被认为是低估的。尽管美国市场增速放缓，国际市场增长依然强劲。以15倍远期市现率交易，其估值处于历史低位，并有强大的品牌和高客户忠诚度作支撑。 * **持有PayPal。** 被戏称为“苦痛宝（PainPal）”的PayPal，自推荐以来股价已大幅下跌（17-18%）。尽管盈利表现良好且合作伙伴关系不断增长（例如Perplexity、OpenAI），市场情绪依然低迷。管理层表示转型需要更长时间，但积极的股票回购（今年回购了公司10%的股份）和新的股息正在弥补股东。 * **观察名单：Exor和Salesforce。** 意大利控股公司Exor因其对法拉利39%的持股而引人入胜，这基本上意味着可以以大幅折扣获得法拉利的敞口。它还持有CNH和Stellantis等周期性公司以及飞利浦的股份。Salesforce，尽管存在AI担忧，通过高转换成本和在企业工作流程中的深度整合，拥有强大的护城河。主持人表示，由于缺乏个人产品使用经验，他们需要更大的安全边际才会进行投资。 主持人强调，在他们的投资过程中，长期思维、耐心和“消费者优势”的重要性。下周，他们将深入探讨一家拥有近十亿用户但变现能力一直不佳的社交媒体公司，暗示可能会有新的投资标的。

After 50 episodes and almost a year, the Intrinsic Value podcast hosts, Sean O'Malley and Daniel Munker, reflect on their journey of building a portfolio from scratch. Starting 100% in cash in January 2025, they aimed to show the progression from uninvested to fully deployed capital, a perspective often missing from "super investor" portfolios. Despite a significant cash drag, which has now reduced to about 25% from 50%, the portfolio has achieved a respectable 9% return. The hosts acknowledge that one year isn't enough to validate a strategy but are pleased with the initial performance, especially considering recent investments in undervalued companies. **Portfolio Highlights & Changes:** * **Winners:** Google, the largest position, is up over 50%. Reddit has been a "phenomenal" performer, reaching a 3-bagger at one point and currently up about 120% since purchase, despite being a small 3.5% holding. Though not adding due to current valuation, the hosts see Reddit as a long-term compounder, citing its differentiated social media approach and strong monetization metrics. * **New Position: Crocs.** The hosts decided to add Crocs as a 2.5% position, viewing it as an "asymmetric opportunity" or a value play. Despite declining sales, primarily due to the "Heydude" brand acquisition, the core Crocs brand remains stable. With an 18% free cash flow yield and aggressive buybacks (16% yield), its valuation is compelling. Management's past acquisition missteps and current incentives are discussed, alongside positive insider buying activity. * **Adding to Uber.** Uber, a frequently discussed company, will see its position increase to 7% or 8%. The hosts highlight its transition into a "genuine cash flow machine" with improving margins and operating leverage. Trading at 18x forward free cash flow, it's considered cheap given its 20%+ growth. Bear cases, such as competition from Waymo/Tesla and a potential Lyft acquisition by Amazon, are addressed. The hosts argue that big tech's past failures in entering established markets suggest Uber's moat is stronger than perceived. * **Adding to Adobe.** Facing fears of AI disruption, Adobe's stock is down almost 30% year-to-date. However, the hosts emphasize its deep embedment in corporate America and the creative industry, with high switching costs. They believe AI will transform the industry *within* Adobe's products, not to its detriment. With a forward P/E and P/FCF below 14, Adobe offers an implied 18% annual return over five years, even with conservative assumptions. * **Selling Ulta Beauty.** The podcast's first portfolio addition, Ulta Beauty, is being sold for a 28% return after almost a year. The hosts explain that the original thesis played out, and while it remains a good business, the current valuation no longer offers the same "asymmetric" opportunity. The capital is being reallocated to more compelling prospects. * **Holding Nubank.** A "learning position" at 2.5%, Nubank has grown 30% since purchase. Despite concerns about the Brazilian consumer market, Nubank demonstrates impressive growth while maintaining comparable risk metrics to traditional banks. Its expansion into Mexico and a recent U.S. bank charter application are positive signs, though the hosts acknowledge their limited expertise in the South American banking sector, justifying its smaller position size. * **Holding Nike & Lululemon.** Nike is up 10% from its entry price, but its turnaround is ongoing. The hosts suggest selling if it hits $80 without fundamental improvement, acknowledging potential "anchoring bias." Lululemon, currently their worst performer (down 20%), is viewed as undervalued. Despite a slowdown in the U.S., international growth remains strong. Trading at 15x forward P/FCF, its valuation is at historical lows, backed by a strong brand and high customer loyalty. * **Holding PayPal.** Affectionately dubbed "PainPal," the stock is down significantly since the pitch (17-18%). While earnings have been good and partnerships are growing (e.g., Perplexity, OpenAI), sentiment remains low. Management indicates a longer turnaround, but aggressive buybacks (10% of the company this year) and a new dividend are compensating shareholders. * **Watchlist: Exor & Salesforce.** Exor, an Italian holding company, is intriguing due to its 39% stake in Ferrari, essentially allowing access to Ferrari at a significant discount. It also owns stakes in cyclical companies like CNH and Stellantis, and Philips. Salesforce, despite AI concerns, holds a strong moat through high switching costs and deep integration in corporate workflows. The hosts seek a larger margin of safety due to lack of personal product experience before investing. The hosts emphasize the importance of a long-term mindset, patience, and the "consumer edge" in their investment process. Next week, they will deep dive into a social media company with nearly a billion users that has struggled with monetization, hinting at a potential new addition.