TIVP026: The Intrinsic Value Portfolio: Mid-Year Review w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

本期播客节目全面回顾了主持人当前的投资组合，反思了他们最初的投资论点，讨论了近期发展，并概述了他们更广泛的投资策略。该投资组合仍在构建中，主要包括科技和平台型公司，这些公司通常是在市场对AI和自动驾驶等颠覆性大趋势感到担忧后，以合理估值买入的。 讨论首先从**Ulta Beauty**开始。该股最初占7%仓位，但近期因其价值上涨，已重新平衡至5%。主持人认为Ulta是一家轻资产、可扩展的公司，拥有强大的门店体验、完善的忠诚度计划，并且对经济衰退具有韧性（即“口红效应”）。尽管目前存在估值担忧，他们仍将其视为一个稳定、能产生现金的复利机器，并具备国际扩张潜力，特别是考虑到其积极的股票回购计划和对内部效率的关注。 **Alphabet (谷歌)**是他们最大仓位，占8%，是一个高信念持仓。他们反驳了市场对AI颠覆（如ChatGPT、Perplexity）的担忧，认为AI与谷歌的核心搜索业务互补，从而扩大了整体搜索“蛋糕”。他们强调谷歌成功地将AI概览货币化，其云业务的实力（Google Cloud不断增长的营收和利润率），以及其自动驾驶子公司Waymo取得的重大进展。Waymo完成的1000万次付费自动驾驶出租车行程，证明了其在L4级自动驾驶领域的领先地位，与Uber等战略伙伴关系进一步扩大了其影响力。第一季度业绩显示营收和净利润强劲增长，同时股息增加和股票回购，进一步巩固了他们的看涨前景。 **Uber**自买入以来上涨40%，在投资组合中占2%的权重。主持人强调了与Waymo的协同合作关系：Uber为Waymo的自动驾驶汽车提供需求，而Waymo则提供自动驾驶汽车供应，从而缩短等待时间并可能降低成本。他们认为Uber的全球叫车网络和网络效应是汽车制造商难以复制的。此外，Uber的多元化业务包括盈利的食品配送业务（Eats）和快速增长、高利润的广告业务。强劲的第一季度业绩，包括乘车次数、活跃用户和营业收入的增长，验证了他们关于Uber经营杠杆和持续增长空间的论点。 **Adobe**占5%仓位，被认为是一个“准垄断”企业，拥有95%的经常性收入。与Alphabet类似，Adobe也面临AI颠覆的担忧。然而，主持人认为Adobe的优势在于其AI是基于授权内容进行训练的，从而确保了客户的合法使用。这一点，加上其庞大的生态系统和转换成本，使其有时间有效整合自身的AI工具。他们还指出，Adobe除了创意套件产品外，还提供Acrobat和营销分析等多元化产品，使其成为一家具有强大财务状况（4%的自由现金流收益率，高投资回报率）的合理多元化企业。 **Reddit**占3%的仓位，已上涨15%。该股因其显著的国际扩张（同比增长41%）和不断改善的广告变现能力而受到讨论，尽管国际用户平均收入（ARPU）较低。他们相信AI通过使内容更易访问和更有用，从而提升了Reddit的价值，并且该平台的核心吸引力在于真实的人际互动和社区，这是AI无法取代的。强劲的第一季度收益，营收增长60%，用户增长30%，支撑了他们对其增长和未来盈利能力的乐观展望，尽管其当前估值仍然较高。 **Nike**占2%仓位，因其过于激进的直销（DTC）策略和停滞的创新而导致近期陷入困境。一项战略逆转，包括重新通过亚马逊销售，标志着其回归到无论顾客在哪里购物都提供服务的策略。尽管面临持续的库存问题和预期的短期营收下滑，主持人相信耐克的全球品牌实力、人才和重新聚焦将使其实现长期反弹。 最后，**Nubank (Nu)**是他们最新的2%仓位，被承认为超出他们通常的“能力圈”，但其令人难以置信的商业经济效益证明了这一点。Nu成立于2013年，已服务巴西近60%的成年人口，其中80%的客户通过口碑传播获得。其纯数字化模式提供了显著的成本优势，并将这些优势转化为更便宜的服务回馈给消费者，从而创造了一个强大的飞轮效应。虽然风险包括货币波动和贷款组合质量，但他们的估值模型，即使纳入了更高的折现率和保守的增长假设，仍预计年化回报率可达16%。 主持人最后强调了他们的投资组合构建策略：目标是持有约20个仓位，平均权重为5%，对更看好的标的增加持仓，对风险较高的则减少持仓。他们优先考虑“实时构建投资组合”并保持纪律性，强调在投资优质企业时“价格确实很重要”。

This podcast episode offers a comprehensive review of the hosts' current investment portfolio, reflecting on their initial theses, discussing recent developments, and outlining their broader investment strategy. The portfolio, still under construction, primarily features tech and platform-based companies, often acquired at reasonable valuations following market concerns about disruptive megatrends like AI and autonomous vehicles. The discussion begins with **Ulta Beauty**, initially a 7% position but recently rebalanced to 5% due to its appreciation. The hosts view Ulta as an asset-light, scalable business with a strong in-store experience, robust loyalty program, and resilience to economic downturns (the "lipstick effect"). Despite current valuation concerns, they see it as a stable, cash-generative compounder with potential for international expansion, especially given its aggressive buyback program and focus on internal efficiencies. **Alphabet (Google)**, their largest position at 8%, is a high-conviction holding. They counter market fears about AI disruption (ChatGPT, Perplexity) by arguing that AI complements Google's core search, leading to an expanding overall search "pie." They highlight Google's successful monetization of AI overviews, the strength of its cloud business (Google Cloud's growing revenue and margins), and the significant progress of Waymo, their autonomous vehicle subsidiary. Waymo's 10 million paid robo-taxi trips demonstrate its lead in Level 4 autonomous driving, with strategic partnerships like Uber bolstering its reach. Q1 results showed robust growth in revenue and net income, alongside a dividend increase and share repurchases, reinforcing their bullish outlook. **Uber**, up 40% since purchase, holds a 2% portfolio weight. The hosts emphasize the synergistic partnership with Waymo, where Uber provides demand for Waymo's autonomous vehicles, and Waymo offers AV supply, shortening wait times and potentially lowering costs. They argue that Uber's global ride-hailing network and network effects are difficult for car manufacturers to replicate. Furthermore, Uber's diversified business includes a profitable food delivery segment (Eats) and a rapidly growing, high-margin advertising business. Strong Q1 results, including increased rides, active users, and operating income, validate their thesis of Uber's operating leverage and continued growth runway. **Adobe**, a 5% position, is considered a "near monopoly" with 95% recurring revenue. Similar to Alphabet, Adobe faced AI disruption concerns. However, the hosts argue Adobe's advantage lies in training its AI on licensed content, ensuring legal use for clients. This, combined with its vast ecosystem and switching costs, gives it time to integrate its own AI tools effectively. They also point to Adobe's diversified offerings beyond creative suite products, such as Acrobat and marketing analytics, making it a reasonably diversified business with strong financials (4% free cash flow yield, high ROIC). **Reddit**, a 3% position that has seen a 15% increase, is discussed for its significant international expansion (up 41% YoY) and improving ad monetization, despite lower international average revenue per user (ARPU). They believe AI enhances Reddit's value by making content more accessible and useful, and that the platform's core appeal lies in genuine human interaction and community, which AI cannot replace. Stellar Q1 earnings, with revenue up 60% and users up 30%, support their optimistic outlook for its growth and future profitability, although its current valuation remains high. **Nike**, a 2% position, is noted for its recent struggles stemming from an overaggressive direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy and stalled innovation. A strategic reversal, including a return to selling directly through Amazon, signals a shift back to serving customers wherever they shop. Despite ongoing inventory issues and expected near-term revenue declines, the hosts believe Nike's global brand strength, talent, and renewed focus will enable a long-term rebound. Finally, **Nubank (Nu)**, their newest 2% position, is acknowledged as being outside their typical "circle of competence" but justified by its incredible business economics. Founded in 2013, Nu already serves nearly 60% of Brazil's adult population, with 80% customer acquisition through word-of-mouth. Its digital-only model offers significant cost advantages, passed on to consumers as cheaper services, creating a powerful flywheel. While risks include currency volatility and loan book quality, their valuation model, incorporating higher discount rates and conservative growth assumptions, still projects a compelling 16% annual return. The hosts conclude by emphasizing their portfolio construction strategy: aiming for around 20 positions with a 5% average weight, increasing conviction for stronger ideas and reducing it for riskier ones. They prioritize "building the portfolio in real-time" and maintaining a disciplined approach, stressing that "price really matters" when investing in quality businesses.