TIVP012: Hershey (HSY): A Deliciously Beaten Down Stock? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke

以下是内容的中文翻译： “内在价值播客”节目深入探讨了好时公司（Hershey，股票代码：HSY），分析了其业务、面临的挑战和估值。好时公司以其标志性品牌如瑞茜（Reese's）、趣多多（Twizzlers）、奇巧（Kit Kats）和好时之吻（Hershey's Kisses）而闻名，其股价自2023年5月的峰值以来大幅下跌，促使主持人肖恩·奥马利（Sean O'Malley）和丹尼尔·曼卡（Daniel Manka）调查这是否是一个有吸引力的投资机会。 丹尼尔·曼卡指出，尽管可可价格飙升，好时公司的财务表现依然令人印象深刻，毛利率稳定在45%左右，营业利润率也增至近23%。该公司还拥有3%的股息收益率、15%的自由现金流利润率和超过20%的投资资本回报率（ROIC）。然而，肖恩强调了“喜忧参半的局面”，公司的成功被不断上涨的投入成本和潜在的需求变化所困扰。 好时公司面临的一个主要逆风是可可价格的急剧上涨，由于占全球供应量70%的西非地区天气恶劣，可可价格一度高达每公吨14,000美元。这种供应链的脆弱性，因气候变化和童工等社会经济问题而加剧，构成了结构性问题。好时公司试图通过套期保值策略来缓解这一问题，其中包括大量的商品期货和外汇合约名义敞口。他们还通过提价转嫁成本（例如，2024年巧克力产品提价67%）。从长远来看，好时公司投资了“可可向善”项目，这是一项5亿美元的倡议，旨在确保可持续可可生产并改善农民生计，同时也旨在确保未来的供应。中国对巧克力的需求不断增长以及中国政府日益参与非洲可可供应链，给原材料竞争带来了新的层面。 另一个被视为威胁的是GLP-1减肥药的兴起。虽然管理层承认这些药物会导致其产品类别的消费量不成比例地减少，但他们认为当前客户支出疲软主要是由于通货膨胀导致消费者转向更便宜的自有品牌零食。 好时公司独特的股权结构——好时信托公司持有80%的投票权，但仅拥有20%的经济利益——历史上阻止了收购。2016年，信托公司拒绝了亿滋（以奥利奥闻名）的收购要约，最近也再次拒绝，部分原因是失去奇巧（KitKat）的许可权（如果好时被出售，该权利将归还雀巢）从好时公司的角度来看会大大降低收购报价的价值。主持人讨论了米尔顿·好时（Milton Hershey）设立信托用于慈善事业的愿景，但也承认过去围绕其管理的争议。 在增长方面，好时公司作为一家成熟的公司，通过战略性收购（如Sour Strips）和专注于产品创新（例如Shaqalicious XL软糖和新的瑞茜产品系列）进行扩张。肖恩还强调了来自新兴“网红”品牌（如Mr. Beast巧克力）的竞争压力，这些品牌利用巨大的数字影响力，对具有更强区域偏好的传统品牌构成了挑战。在运营方面，好时公司通过其“AAA倡议”提高效率，投资SAP S4 HANA以数字化其产品组合，优化库存并预测需求，预计到2026年每年节省3亿美元。 领导层变动也带来了不确定性，首席执行官米歇尔·巴克（Michelle Buck）将于2026年退休，而美国糖果部门的一位关键高管最近也辞职。此外，该公司因其在肥胖和糖尿病等公共健康问题中的作用而面临日益严格的审查，并可能面临更严格的法规和诉讼。 关于定价权，肖恩引用了沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）对这一指标的重视。尽管对好时产品的需求具有弹性（客户对价格敏感），但该公司强大的品牌认知度、怀旧因素和有效的营销使其能够保持比竞争对手高5-10%的价格溢价。他们还采用“缩水式通胀”（shrinkflation）来隐性提价。好时公司的品牌力量是一道重要的护城河，使得零售商优先储备其产品，新进入者难以匹敌。 尽管2024年第四季度财报强于预期，净销售额增长8.7%，净收入翻倍以上，但2025年的前景充满挑战。好时公司管理层预测，由于高可可价格的滞后效应、糖和劳动力成本增加以及关税，毛利率将下降七个百分点，净收入将下降约40%。根据他的折现现金流（DCF）和市盈率（P/E）分析，肖恩计算出每股公允价值为130美元。为了考虑风险和足够的安全边际，他建议买入价格为每股115美元或更低，这远低于其当前交易价格和过去275美元的峰值。 最终，两位主持人都得出结论，尽管好时公司是一家拥有强大品牌的优秀企业，但其目前的估值并未提供一个引人注目的投资机会。肖恩还表达了个人对投资一家对全球健康问题有贡献的公司的保留，他更倾向于投资符合他价值观的公司，如Vital Farms。他们将好时公司加入了他们的观察名单，认为它是一家值得深入了解的优秀企业，但目前不适合纳入其内在价值投资组合。

The "Intrinsic Value Podcast" episode dives deep into The Hershey Company (HSY), exploring its business, challenges, and valuation. Hershey, known for iconic brands like Reese's, Twizzlers, Kit Kats, and Hershey's Kisses, has seen its stock price fall significantly from a May 2023 peak, prompting the hosts, Sean O'Malley and Daniel Manka, to investigate if it's an attractive investment opportunity. Daniel Manka notes Hershey's impressive financials, including stable gross margins around 45% and operating margins increasing to nearly 23%, despite soaring cocoa prices. The company also boasts a 3% dividend yield, 15% free cash flow margin, and over 20% ROIC. However, Sean highlights the "mixed picture," with success marred by rising input costs and potential demand shifts. A major headwind for Hershey is the dramatic increase in cocoa prices, which hit a high of $14,000 per metric ton due to poor weather in West Africa, responsible for 70% of global supply. This supply chain vulnerability, exacerbated by climate change and socio-economic issues like child labor, poses a structural problem. Hershey attempts to mitigate this through hedging strategies, involving significant notional exposure to commodity futures and foreign exchange contracts. They also pass on costs through price increases (e.g., 67% on chocolate products in 2024). Long-term, Hershey invests in "Cocoa for Good," a $500 million initiative to ensure sustainable cocoa production and improve farmer livelihoods, which also serves to secure future supply. The growing demand for chocolate in China and the Chinese government's increasing involvement in African cocoa supply chains add another layer of competition for raw materials. Another perceived threat is the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. While management admits these drugs lead to disproportionately less consumption of their categories, they believe the current weakness in customer spending is primarily due to consumers trading down to cheaper, private-label snacks in response to inflation. Hershey's unique ownership structure, where the Hershey Trust Company holds 80% of voting power with only 20% economic interest, has historically prevented takeovers. The Trust rejected bids from Mondelez (known for Oreo) in 2016 and more recently, partly because losing KitKat licensing rights (which would revert to Nestle if Hershey were sold) significantly devalues the offer from Hershey's perspective. The hosts discuss Milton Hershey's vision in establishing the Trust for charitable causes, but also acknowledge past controversies surrounding its management. In terms of growth, Hershey, a mature company, expands through strategic acquisitions like Sour Strips and focusing on product innovation, such as Shaqalicious XL gummies and new Reese's varieties. Sean also highlights the competitive pressure from emerging "influencer" brands like Mr. Beast's chocolate, which leverages immense digital reach, a challenge for legacy brands with stronger regional biases. Operationally, Hershey aims for efficiency through its "AAA initiative," investing in SAP S4 HANA to digitize its product portfolio, optimize inventory, and forecast demand, expecting $300 million in annual savings by 2026. Leadership changes also present uncertainty, with CEO Michelle Buck set to retire in 2026 and a key executive for the U.S. candy division recently quitting. Furthermore, the company faces increasing scrutiny over its role in public health issues like obesity and diabetes, with potential for stricter regulations and lawsuits. Regarding pricing power, Sean references Warren Buffett's emphasis on this metric. While demand for Hershey's products is elastic (customers are sensitive to price), the company's strong brand recognition, nostalgia factor, and effective marketing allow it to maintain a 5-10% price premium over competitors. They also employ "shrinkflation" to implicitly raise prices. Hershey's brand power is a significant moat, making retailers prioritize stocking their products and difficult for new entrants to rival. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 earnings report, with net sales up 8.7% and net income more than doubling, the outlook for 2025 is challenging. Hershey's management forecasts gross profit margins to decline by seven percentage points and net income to fall by about 40% due to lagged effects of high cocoa prices, increased sugar and labor costs, and tariffs. Based on his discounted cash flow and P/E ratio analyses, Sean calculates a fair value of $130 per share. To account for risks and an adequate margin of safety, he suggests a buying price of $115 per share or less, significantly below its current trading price and past peak of $275. Ultimately, both hosts conclude that while Hershey is a strong business with powerful brands, its current valuation does not offer a compelling investment opportunity. Sean also expresses personal reservations about investing in a company that contributes to global health issues, preferring companies that align with his values, like Vital Farms. They add Hershey to their watchlist, acknowledging it as a great business to understand, but not currently to own for their intrinsic value portfolio.