TIVP005: Alphabet (GOOGL): Searching for Quality w/ Shawn O’Malley

在最新一期的“内在价值播客”中，主持人肖恩·奥马利打破了他长期以来避免“七巨头”股票的惯例，深入分析了谷歌的母公司Alphabet。尽管奥马利此前更倾向于关注那些较少被追踪的企业，但他被Alphabet吸引，原因在于该公司近期表现不及同行，以及围绕人工智能颠覆和反垄断执法的担忧。他还承认，与其他一些科技巨头相比，他对Alphabet的运营有着更好的直观理解。 Alphabet于2015年成立，其灵感来源于伯克希尔哈撒韦，是一家庞大的综合性企业集团。其核心子公司谷歌涵盖了搜索、安卓、Gmail、YouTube、Chrome以及硬件业务。除此之外，Alphabet旗下还有多元化的业务组合，包括Calico（健康研究）、Capital AG（私募股权）、Google Fiber、GV（风险投资）、Isomorphic Labs（人工智能药物发现）、Verily（生命科学）、Waymo（自动驾驶汽车）、Wing（无人机送货）以及X（如Google Glass、Loon等前瞻性创新项目）。如此广泛的业务范围，使得Alphabet像是苹果、微软、Spotify、特斯拉、优步、Zoom和抖音国际版（TikTok）的综合体，并由数十亿用户的数据驱动。 奥马利强调了一些惊人的数据，凸显了Alphabet的无处不在：谷歌是访问量最大的网站，掌控着92%的搜索市场份额，每日搜索量高达90亿次。YouTube拥有超过20亿活跃用户，每日内容观看时长超过10亿小时。安卓系统以30亿月活跃用户主导着移动操作系统市场。这些服务常被认为是免费的，但它们通过谷歌搜索和YouTube上复杂的广告投放、AdSense网络、Google Workspace的商业订阅服务、Google地图和地球的推广图钉和数据许可，以及Google相册的付费存储服务实现了盈利。主持人指出，人工智能，特别是Gemini，正被整合到这些工具中，以提升其功能和用户体验。 回顾谷歌的历史，奥马利叙述了拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林于1998年创建谷歌，PageRank的创新，早期投资，以及其2004年的首次公开募股。重要的收购案，例如YouTube（2006年16.5亿美元）、DoubleClick（2008年31亿美元）、Waze（2013年9.66亿美元）和DeepMind（2014年），都展示了谷歌的增长和战略眼光。为了应对ChatGPT，Alphabet发布了“红色警报”，并押注于其自研的Gemini人工智能。奥马利对人工智能的影响提出了一个细致入微的看法，他认为人工智能可能不会摧毁搜索业务，而是会创造出新的、独特的用例，同时可能会增加计算成本。 从财务角度来看，广告收入占Alphabet总收入的三分之二以上。搜索浏览量和广告点击率稳步增长，表明尽管存在人工智能的担忧，其广告支持型业务依然健康。YouTube的参与度和订阅服务（音乐、电视）也在迅速扩张。谷歌云虽然历史上一直处于亏损状态，却展现出巨大的增长（每年40%），并正朝着盈利的方向发展。Alphabet管理着巨额的流量获取成本（TAC），例如向苹果支付的默认搜索引擎地位费用，以及与YouTube创作者的收入分成。该公司产生了大量的自由现金流（2023年近700亿美元），并将其中很大一部分（2023年620亿美元）用于积极的股票回购，有效地减少了股票数量，增加了股东持股比例。拥有近1000亿美元现金，Alphabet的资产负债表堪称“堡垒”。 关于监管威胁，奥马利承认正在进行的反垄断案件，尤其是一项最近针对谷歌在线搜索垄断行为的裁决。然而，他援引微软反垄断斗争等历史先例，对公司可能遭受的重大、持久影响表示怀疑。他将数十亿美元的罚款视为“营商成本”，而非对其运营的根本性威胁，他认为监管机构很少拆解高度创新、造福消费者的公司。 该播客强调了Alphabet强大的机构持股情况，传奇投资者如李录、比尔·阿克曼和比尔·奈格伦均持有大量股份，证实了其作为一家高质量企业的地位。 在他的估值中，奥马利强调，对于一家市值高达2万亿美元的公司而言，方向的正确性比精确的数字更为重要。他根据Alphabet的主要业务部门对其价值进行了细分： * **搜索及其他业务：** 1900亿美元营收，30%利润率，20倍市盈率 = 约1.1万亿美元。 * **YouTube广告：** 350亿美元营收，30%利润率，30倍市盈率 = 约3000亿美元。 * **谷歌网络（AdSense）：** 增长较低，利润率较低，15倍市盈率 = 约900亿美元。 * **谷歌云：** 450亿美元营收，25%利润率，35倍市盈率 = 约4000亿美元。 * **订阅及设备：** 390亿美元营收，30%利润率，20倍市盈率 = 约2300亿美元。 计入Waymo估计的500亿美元估值以及600亿美元净现金，奥马利得出了Alphabet的内在价值约为2.2万亿美元，或每股185美元。 尽管奥马利认为Alphabet并非“严重低估”，但考虑到其质量和未来潜力，他认为与其他“七巨头”股票相比，其定价具有吸引力。他计划为其内在价值投资组合逐步增持股份，目标持仓比例为3-5%，尤其是在股价跌破170美元时；他将市场回调视为投资这家变革性公司的机会。

On a recent episode of the Intrinsic Value Podcast, host Sean O'Malley broke his long-standing rule of avoiding "Magnificent Seven" stocks to deep-dive into Alphabet, Google's parent company. Despite previously preferring less-tracked businesses, O'Malley was drawn to Alphabet due to its recent underperformance compared to peers and concerns surrounding AI disruptions and antitrust enforcement. He also admitted a better intuitive understanding of its operations compared to some other tech giants. Alphabet, formed in 2015 with inspiration from Berkshire Hathaway, is a vast conglomerate. Its core Google subsidiary encompasses search, Android, Gmail, YouTube, Chrome, and hardware. Beyond this, Alphabet houses a diverse portfolio, including Calico (health research), Capital AG (private equity), Google Fiber, GV (venture capital), Isomorphic Labs (AI drug discovery), Verily (life sciences), Waymo (self-driving cars), Wing (drone delivery), and X (moonshot projects like Google Glass, Loon). This extensive reach positions Alphabet as a blend of Apple, Microsoft, Spotify, Tesla, Uber, Zoom, and TikTok, powered by data from billions of users. O'Malley highlighted breathtaking statistics underscoring Alphabet's ubiquity: Google is the most visited website, controlling 92% of the search market with 9 billion daily searches. YouTube boasts over 2 billion active users, with more than 1 billion hours of content watched daily. Android dominates the mobile OS market with 3 billion monthly users. These services, often perceived as free, are monetized through sophisticated advertising on Search and YouTube, the AdSense network, business subscriptions for Google Workspace, promoted pins and data licensing for Google Maps and Earth, and paid storage for Google Photos. The host noted that AI, particularly Gemini, is being integrated to enhance these tools and user experience. Tracing Google's history, O'Malley recounted its 1998 founding by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the innovation of PageRank, early investments, and its 2004 IPO. Key acquisitions like YouTube ($1.65B in 2006), DoubleClick ($3.1B in 2008), Waze ($966M in 2013), and DeepMind (2014) showcased its growth and strategic vision. In response to ChatGPT, Alphabet issued a "code red," betting on its own Gemini AI. O'Malley offered a nuanced view on AI's impact, suggesting it might not destroy search but rather create new, distinct use cases while potentially increasing computing costs. Financially, advertising accounts for over two-thirds of Alphabet's revenue. Search views and ad click-through rates have steadily grown, indicating a healthy ad-supported business despite AI concerns. YouTube's engagement and subscription services (Music, TV) are also rapidly expanding. Google Cloud, though historically unprofitable, shows massive growth (40% annually) and is trending towards profitability. Alphabet manages significant traffic acquisition costs (TAC), such as payments to Apple for default search engine status and revenue sharing with YouTube creators. The company generates substantial free cash flow (nearly $70 billion in 2023) and uses a large portion ($62 billion in 2023) for aggressive share buybacks, effectively reducing share count and increasing shareholder ownership. With almost $100 billion in cash, Alphabet has a "fortress balance sheet." Regarding regulatory threats, O'Malley acknowledged ongoing antitrust cases, particularly a recent ruling against Google for monopolistic practices in online search. However, he expressed skepticism about any major, lasting impact on the company, citing historical precedents like Microsoft's antitrust battle. He views multi-billion dollar fines as a "cost of doing business" rather than a fundamental threat to its operations, arguing that regulators rarely dismantle highly innovative, consumer-benefiting companies. The podcast highlighted Alphabet's strong institutional ownership, with legendary investors like Li Lu, Bill Ackman, and Bill Nygren holding significant stakes, confirming its status as a high-quality business. In his valuation, O'Malley stressed directional correctness over precise figures for a $2 trillion company. He broke down Alphabet's value by its main business units: * **Search & Other:** $190B revenue, 30% margin, 20x multiple = ~$1.1 trillion. * **YouTube Ads:** $35B revenue, 30% margin, 30x multiple = ~$300 billion. * **Google Network (AdSense):** Lower growth, lower margin, 15x multiple = ~$90 billion. * **Cloud:** $45B revenue, 25% margin, 35x multiple = ~$400 billion. * **Subscriptions & Devices:** $39B revenue, 30% margin, 20x multiple = ~$230 billion. Including Waymo's estimated $50 billion valuation and $60 billion in net cash, O'Malley arrived at an estimated intrinsic value of $2.2 trillion, or $185 per share. While he doesn't see Alphabet as "hugely undervalued," O'Malley finds it attractively priced compared to other MAG7 stocks, given its quality and future potential. He plans to gradually accumulate shares for his intrinsic value portfolio, aiming for a 3-5% position, particularly when the price dips below $170, seeing market corrections as opportunities to invest in this transformative company.