MI Rewind: A Rational Approach to Investing w/ Tobias Carlisle
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Toby Carlisle 是 Acquirer's Multiple 网站和 Acquirer's Funds 基金（ZIG 和 DEEP）的创始人，他受邀参加本次播客节目，讨论他步入价值投资领域的历程、其市场哲学以及基金策略。
Carlisle 的价值投资之路始于21世纪初，受到沃伦·巴菲特信件和本杰明·格雷厄姆“净净股”（net-net）策略的影响。该策略侧重于寻找股价低于清算价值的公司。他最初是一名公司律师，专注于并购业务，包括在旧金山从事科技并购。在此期间，他深入了解了敌意收购和委托书争夺战。他意识到，有效的积极维权往往需要大量的资本和控制权。这促使他将重心转向识别那些管理层已经符合股东最佳利益，特别是通过大规模股票回购来回馈股东的被低估公司。最终，他与 Wes Gray 合作出版了《量化价值》(Quantitative Value) 一书，该书探讨了如何为基本面投资者通过量化方法实现回报。
Carlisle 投资哲学的一个核心原则是**均值回归**。他解释说，价值投资之所以能够跑赢大盘，是因为投资者往往对利好和利空消息反应过度，将趋势过远地推断到未来。这种行为偏差为逆向价值投资者创造了机会，使他们能够在资产被不合理地压低时买入，并在价格回归其内在价值时卖出（或再平衡）。他强调，即使一家企业算不上“出色”，但如果它被市场定价为一个“彻底的垃圾企业”，那么即使是适度的表现也能产生可观的回报。
Carlisle 使用**席勒市盈率**（Shiller PE ratio，又称 CAPE ratio，周期调整市盈率）作为一个宏观指标来评估市场估值。该比率将当前股价与过去十年通胀调整后的平均收益进行比较，目前约为40——这一水平历史上仅在市场高峰期出现过（例如，互联网泡沫时期曾达45）。他指出，如此高的估值并非市场低谷。基于历史数据，如果市场在未来十年内均值回归到其长期席勒市盈率平均水平（16-17），那么这可能意味着指数的实际回报为负，并可能导致该时期市场停滞不前，类似于日本1990年后的市场表现。然而，他认为在这种环境下，价值投资仍然可以蓬勃发展，因为在大盘停滞不前时，价值投资通常表现良好。
关于**通货膨胀**，Carlisle 认为当前的高通胀率（录制时 CPI 为6.2%）不太可能是暂时的。他将此归因于美联储激进的印钞行为和持续的全球供应链中断。他看到了与20世纪70年代的相似之处，并认为持续的高通胀时期通常对价值股更有利，即使这会给更广泛的经济和股市带来挑战。他告诫不要进行精确预测，但承认未来可能面临一个艰难的投资环境。
关于**折现率**，Carlisle 在其估值过程中避免依赖固定的折现率，他认识到确定一个适当的折现率非常困难，尤其是在低利率环境下。相反，他更倾向于 Bruce Greenwald 的框架，该框架评估清算价值、收益能力价值（无增长情况下的收益）和增长价值（源于股息收益率、再投资率和股本回报率）。这种方法使他能够专注于标的业务产生现金流和有效再投资的能力，而不是受制于一个任意的折现率。
Carlisle 的投资策略通过两支积极管理型基金实施：
1. **Acquirer's Fund (ZIG) 基金：**该基金专注于美国中盘股和大型股。其策略是基于严格的资产负债表和业务质量分析，识别市场中最便宜的30只股票。他寻找那些拥有稳健利润率，并且至关重要的是，管理团队能够机会性地回购大量自身股票的公司（例如，洛克希德·马丁在十年内回购了其17%的股份）。Carlisle 还宣布该基金正从多空策略转型为**仅做多**（long-only）策略，旨在消除逼空和监管复杂性带来的“生存风险”。
2. **Acquirer's Deep Value Fund (DEEP) 基金：**该基金将相同的深度价值策略应用于美国小盘股和微盘股领域。Carlisle 认为，鉴于过去十年与大盘成长股相比的相对表现不佳，这一领域提供了一些最佳机会。这两支基金都被设计为具有高质量偏好的“最深度价值”基金。
Toby Carlisle 最后邀请听众通过他的网站（acquirersfunds.com, acquirersmultiple.com——该网站提供免费股票筛选器和博客）、他的播客节目《The Acquirers Podcast》以及推特 (@Greenbacked) 进行联系。
Toby Carlisle, founder of Acquirer's Multiple and Acquirer's Funds (ZIG and DEEP), was featured on the podcast to discuss his journey into value investing, his market philosophy, and his fund's strategy.
Carlisle's path to value investing began in the early 2000s, influenced by Warren Buffett's letters and Benjamin Graham's "net-net" approach, which focuses on companies trading below liquidation value. Initially a corporate lawyer specializing in M&A, including tech M&A in San Francisco, he gained insight into hostile takeovers and proxy fights. He realized that effective activism often requires significant capital and control. This led him to shift his focus towards identifying undervalued companies where management was already acting in shareholders' best interests, particularly through material stock buybacks. This culminated in his work with Wes Gray on the book "Quantitative Value," which explores quantitatively driven returns for fundamental investors.
A core tenet of Carlisle's investment philosophy is **mean reversion**. He explains that value outperforms because investors tend to overreact to both good and bad news, extrapolating trends too far into the future. This behavioral bias creates opportunities for contrarian value investors to buy when assets are unduly depressed and sell (or rebalance) as prices revert to their intrinsic value. He emphasizes that even if a business isn't "great," if it's priced as an "absolute garbage business," modest performance can yield strong returns.
Carlisle uses the **Shiller PE ratio** (or CAPE ratio) as a macro indicator to contextualize the market's valuation. This ratio, which compares current price to the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings, currently stands around 40 – a level historically seen only near market peaks (e.g., the dot-com bubble's 45). He notes that such high valuations are not troughs. Based on historical data, if the market were to mean revert to its long-run Shiller PE average (16-17) over the next decade, it could imply negative real returns for the index, potentially resulting in a flat market over that period, similar to Japan's market post-1990. However, he believes value investing can still thrive in such an environment, as it often does when the broader market stagnates.
On **inflation**, Carlisle expresses a belief that the current high rates (6.2% CPI at the time of recording) are unlikely to be transitory. He attributes this to aggressive money printing by the Fed and persistent global supply chain disruptions. He sees parallels with the 1970s and suggests that a sustained period of higher inflation would generally be more favorable for value stocks, even if it presents challenges for the broader economy and stock market. He cautions against precise predictions but acknowledges the potential for a difficult investing environment ahead.
Regarding **discount rates**, Carlisle avoids relying on a fixed discount rate in his valuation process, recognizing the difficulty in determining an appropriate rate, especially in a low-interest-rate environment. Instead, he prefers Bruce Greenwald's framework, which assesses liquidation value, earnings power value (earnings without growth), and growth value (derived from dividend yield, reinvestment rate, and return on equity). This approach allows him to focus on the underlying business's ability to generate cash flows and reinvest effectively, rather than being beholden to an arbitrary discount rate.
Carlisle's investment strategies are implemented through two actively managed funds:
1. **The Acquirer's Fund (ZIG):** This fund focuses on mid-cap and larger U.S. stocks. The strategy is to identify the cheapest 30 names in the market based on rigorous balance sheet and business quality analysis. He seeks companies with robust margins and, crucially, management teams that are opportunistically buying back significant amounts of their own stock (e.g., Lockheed Martin, which repurchased 17% of its shares over a decade). Carlisle also announced the fund's transition from a long-short strategy to **long-only**, aiming to eliminate the "existential risk" of short squeezes and regulatory complexities.
2. **Acquirer's Deep Value Fund (DEEP):** This fund applies the identical deep value strategy to the small and micro-cap U.S. universe. Carlisle believes this segment offers some of the best opportunities, given its relative underperformance compared to large-cap growth stocks over the past decade. Both funds are designed to be "deepest value" funds with a high-quality bias.
Toby Carlisle concludes by inviting listeners to connect through his websites (acquirersfunds.com, acquirersmultiple.com – which includes a free stock screener and blog), his podcast "The Acquirers Podcast," and on Twitter (@Greenbacked).
摘要
Clay Finck chats with Tobias Carlisle about what led him to becoming a value investor, what mean reversion is and how it relates to his overall investment strategy, how inflation impacts his investment process, what the shiller PE is and why it’s something to be mindful of, what his thoughts are on determining an appropriate discount rate, and much, much more!
Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the founder of Acquirers Funds® which manages ZIG, the Acquirers Fund, and DEEP, the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value Fund.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - How Tobias ended up becoming a value investor.
07:43 - What investors had a big impact on Tobias’s own development?
12:02 - What mean reversion is from an investment standpoint, and how it relates to his overall investment strategy.
21:44 - What the shiller PE is, and why it is something to be mindful of.
32:20 - How inflation impacts his overall thought process for stock investing.
44:03 - Tobias’s thoughts on an appropriate discount rate, and what discount rate Warren Buffett might be using in his valuation process.
47:19 - The two funds the Acquirer’s Fund manages - ZIG and DEEP.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Tobias Carlisle’s book The Acquirer’s Multiple.
Tobias Carlisle’s book Deep Value.
Tobias Carlisle’s book Quantitative Value.
Bruce Greenwald’s book Value Investing.
Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor.
The Acquirer’s Podcast.
The Acquirer’s Multiple.
The Acquirer’s Fund.
Related Episode: Listen to MI025: Deep Value Investing w/ Tobias Carlisle, or watch the video.
Related Episode: MI084: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, And Berkshire Hathaway w/ Adam Mead, or watch the video.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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