MI Rewind: Alphabet Stock Deep Dive w/ Rihard Jarc

以下是内容的中文翻译： 本期播客节目深入探讨了两家重要公司：Alphabet（谷歌）和爱彼迎（Airbnb）。节目嘉宾是新时代基金（New Era Funds）的首席投资官、《揭秘Alpha》（Uncover Alpha）时事通讯的编辑理查德·贾克（Richard Jark）。主持人解释了回顾过往节目对新听众的价值，以及对现有听众巩固学习的意义。 **Alphabet（谷歌）深入探讨：** 理查德首先概述了Alphabet的主要收入来源，强调尽管**搜索**仍是主导因素，但其他业务板块也至关重要。这些包括**谷歌网络**（通过AdSense在非谷歌平台投放广告）、**YouTube广告**、**谷歌云**，以及“其他收入”（谷歌Play商店费用、Fitbit/Nest/Pixel等硬件，以及YouTube非广告收入，如YouTube高级版）。“其他押注”（Other Bets）板块，虽然尚未成为主要的收入贡献者，但也发挥着作用。 对话随后转向谷歌巨大的收入增长，从2020年的1820亿美元飙升41%至2021年的2570亿美元。理查德将这一激增主要归因于**新冠疫情**，疫情推动了在线参与度的提高，并迫使企业将广告转向线上。此外，苹果iOS的隐私政策调整也使得Facebook等竞争对手更难定位用户，从而吸引了更多广告商转向谷歌。云服务的普及也获得了显著的提升。虽然由于宏观经济状况和更高的比较基数，广告增长正在放缓，但理查德预计云服务将继续是强劲的增长引擎，其普及趋势没有放缓的迹象。 讨论的一个关键点是**谷歌搜索引擎对广告商的价值**。理查德解释说，其有效性源于高“广告支出回报率”（ROAS），谷歌通常为200%，而Facebook为150%。谷歌基于意图的广告，即用户积极搜索特定产品或服务，使得企业能够极其高效地触达目标客户。尽管由于更多广告商的竞争，每千次展示费用（CPM）正在上升，但其价值主张依然强劲。 主持人提到了谷歌的**两个股票代码，GOOG和GOOGL**。理查德澄清说，GOOG（C类股）没有投票权，而GOOGL（A类股）拥有投票权。创始人还持有第三类超级投票权股票。对于大多数被动投资者来说，GOOG和GOOGL之间的选择微不足道，因为市场套利使得两者的价格几乎相同。 节目探讨了“其他押注”部门，包括著名的“X”登月工厂。理查德强调**Waymo**（自动驾驶）是这个孵化器中最重要的“毕业生”。虽然这些“押注”短期内不会影响收入，但它们是谷歌的研发实验室，培育算法和人工智能创新，可以惠及整个公司。 理查德认为谷歌在**人工智能（AI）**领域的地位“处于顶尖水平”。他们庞大的文本、图像和自然语言处理数据集为训练机器学习模型提供了显著优势。谷歌翻译的改进和Waymo在人工智能方面的进步都凸显了其领先地位，预示着未来将对各行各业产生巨大影响。 关于谷歌高达**1340亿美元的庞大现金储备**，理查德不认为这是过剩，而是一个战略性的“战争储备金”。在快速发展的科技格局中，这笔现金为公司提供了投资、收购和适应“下一个重大支出周期”或新计算平台的灵活性。 理查德认为谷歌目前大约**20倍市盈率的估值**颇具吸引力，尤其是在与那些市盈率更高的成熟公司相比时。他将谷歌视为在搜索领域拥有垄断地位的“公用事业”公司，尽管市场短期波动，但它仍是一项引人注目的长期投资。 **谷歌面临的风险**包括谷歌云必须继续与亚马逊网络服务（AWS）和微软Azure竞争市场份额。另一个重大风险是谷歌适应增强现实（AR）、虚拟现实（VR）和元宇宙等新兴计算平台的能力。如果搜索过于依赖键盘输入，而未能适应语音或视觉输入等新形式，其相关性可能会降低。监管风险，特别是反垄断担忧，始终存在，但理查德认为美国为了维持与中国竞争的科技公司，不太可能拆分谷歌。相反，他预计会有更多监管，但这矛盾地可能会为小型竞争对手设置更高的进入壁垒。 关于整体**宏观经济前景**，尽管普遍存在衰退预测，但理查德对即将到来的市场崩盘表示怀疑。他维持对谷歌的长期看涨立场，并准备在估值变得更具吸引力或通胀出现见顶迹象时增持头寸。 **爱彼迎（Airbnb）讨论：** 理查德随后分享了他对**爱彼迎**的看涨观点，强调该公司在一个庞大行业中运营，且没有受到谷歌或亚马逊等其他“大型科技”巨头的直接竞争。他赞扬了首席执行官布莱恩·切斯基（Brian Chesky）的执行力以及公司强劲的业绩，指出其收入增长了70%，而员工数量却比疫情前**减少**了16%。这种精简的结构和对效果营销极小的需求（90%为直接流量）预示着未来卓越的运营利润率。 爱彼迎的**护城河和战略优势**在于其能够满足寻求真实体验和非城市目的地的旅行者需求，这些地方通常酒店稀缺。它也符合游牧式工作和长期住宿日益增长的趋势，在这些情况下其费用结构更具经济性。理查德设想爱彼迎将演变为一个更广阔的体验平台，连接“爱彼迎影响者”与用户，并超越传统住宿，他认为Vrbo、Expedia和Booking等竞争对手由于其短期利润导向而缺乏这种灵活性。 节目最后，理查德邀请听众通过他的Substack时事通讯《揭秘Alpha》和Twitter与他联系，获取更多见解。

This podcast episode features a deep dive into two significant companies, Alphabet (Google) and Airbnb, with guest Richard Jark, Chief Investment Officer of New Era Funds and editor of the Uncover Alpha newsletter. The host explains the value of revisiting past episodes for new listeners and reinforcing learning for existing ones. **Alphabet (Google) Deep Dive:** Richard begins by outlining Alphabet's primary revenue sources, emphasizing that while **search** remains the dominant factor, other segments are crucial. These include **Google Network** (advertising on non-Google properties via AdSense), **YouTube ads**, **Google Cloud**, and "Other Revenue" (Google Play Store fees, hardware like Fitbit/Nest/Pixel, and YouTube's non-advertising revenue like YouTube Premium). The "Other Bets" segment, though not a major revenue contributor yet, also plays a role. The conversation then shifts to Google's massive revenue growth, jumping 41% from $182 billion in 2020 to $257 billion in 2021. Richard attributes this surge primarily to the **COVID-19 pandemic**, which drove increased online engagement and forced businesses to shift advertising online. Additionally, Apple's iOS privacy changes made it harder for competitors like Facebook to target users, leading more advertisers to Google. Cloud adoption also received a significant bump. While advertising growth is slowing due to macroeconomic conditions and tougher comparisons, Richard expects Cloud to remain a strong growth driver, with its adoption showing no signs of slowing. A key point of discussion is **Google's search engine value to advertisers**. Richard explains that its effectiveness stems from high "return on advertising spend" (ROAS), often cited at 200% for Google versus 150% for Facebook. Google's intent-based advertising, where users are actively searching for specific products or services, makes it incredibly efficient for businesses to reach targeted customers. While CPMs (cost per mille) are rising as more advertisers compete, the value proposition remains strong. The host brings up Google's **two stock tickers, GOOG and GOOGL**. Richard clarifies that GOOG (Class C) lacks voting rights, while GOOGL (Class A) carries them. Founders also hold a third class of super-voting shares. For most passive investors, the choice between GOOG and GOOGL is negligible due to market arbitrage keeping prices nearly identical. The "Other Bets" segment, including the famous moonshot factory "X," is explored. Richard highlights **Waymo** (autonomous driving) as the most significant "graduate" from this incubator. While not impacting short-term revenue, these "bets" serve as Google's R&D lab, fostering algorithms and AI innovations that can benefit the broader company. Google's position in **Artificial Intelligence (AI)** is seen by Richard as "right at the top." Their immense datasets for text, images, and natural language processing provide a significant advantage for training machine learning models. Examples like the improvement in Google Translate and the AI advancements from Waymo underscore their leadership, suggesting a massive future impact on various industries. Regarding Google's large **cash pile of $134 billion**, Richard views it not as excessive but as a strategic "war chest." In a rapidly evolving tech landscape, this cash provides the company with the flexibility to invest, acquire, and adapt to the "next big spent cycle" or new computing platforms. The **valuation of Google** at roughly 20 times earnings is considered attractive by Richard, especially when compared to more mature companies trading at higher multiples. He perceives Google as a "utility" with a monopolistic position in search, making it a compelling long-term investment despite short-term market volatility. **Risks for Google** include the imperative for Google Cloud to continue gaining market share against Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Another significant risk is Google's ability to adapt to emerging computing platforms like Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), and the metaverse. If search remains too tied to typing rather than evolving for voice or visual inputs, its relevance could diminish. Regulatory risks, particularly antitrust concerns, are always present, but Richard believes a breakup is unlikely due to the US desire to maintain competitive tech companies against China. Instead, he anticipates more regulation, which paradoxically could create higher barriers to entry for smaller competitors. On the overall **macroeconomic outlook**, Richard expresses skepticism about an imminent market crash despite widespread recession calls. He maintains a long-term bullish stance on Google, ready to add to his position if valuations become even more attractive or inflation shows signs of peaking. **Airbnb Discussion:** Richard then shares his bullish view on **Airbnb**, highlighting its operation in a massive industry without direct competition from other "big tech" giants like Google or Amazon. He praises CEO Brian Chesky's execution and the company's strong performance, noting 70% revenue growth with 16% *fewer* employees than pre-pandemic. This lean structure and minimal need for performance marketing (90% direct traffic) point to excellent future operating margins. Airbnb's **moat and strategic advantage** lie in its ability to cater to travelers seeking genuine experiences and non-urban destinations, often where hotels are scarce. It also suits the growing trend of nomadic work and long-term stays, where its fee structure becomes more economical. Richard envisions Airbnb evolving into a broader experiential platform, connecting "Airbnb influencers" with users and expanding beyond traditional accommodations, a flexibility he believes competitors like Vrbo, Expedia, and Booking lack due to their short-term profit focus. The episode concludes with Richard inviting listeners to connect with him via his Substack newsletter, Uncover Alpha, and on Twitter for further insights.