MI Rewind: Studying Billionaires & Portfolio Allocation w/ Trey Lockerbie
发布时间 来源
Episode 设置
千禧一代投资（Millennial Investing）的这一集重播了与特雷·洛克比（Trey Lockerbie）的对话，他是Better Booch康普茶的联合创始人兼首席执行官，也是“我们研究亿万富翁”（We Study Billionaires）节目的联合主持人。主持人克莱·芬克（Clay Fink）和特雷讨论了他的投资策略如何演变、他的创业历程以及宏观经济洞察。
特雷的投资策略迅速演变，从纯粹的量化筛选转向更具多元化的方法，包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦、指数基金以及寻求超额收益的个股投资。他现在从节目中的对话建立个人股票观察名单，优先选择他“能力圈”内的公司，特别是在他深入了解的食品饮料行业。他自豪地提及早期成功投资全食超市分销商UNFI，在他发现其被低估后，该股大幅升值。特雷对个股保持10%的配置上限，目标回报率为15%，这一目标是他受到摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）“知足常乐”哲学启发，首先了解自己的长期财务需求后设定的。他承认何时卖出极具挑战性，常常是在多年模式识别后依赖直觉。
关于特斯拉，特雷表达了长期看涨的观点。他认为特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司，更是一个由“12个不同初创企业”组成的联合体，垂直整合且专注于可持续的未来。他承认埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）“兜售梦想”的方式是为雄心勃勃的项目融资的必要创业策略，并认为当前的价格区间（约700-800美元）对于长期持有是合理的。
对话深入探讨了宏观格局，特雷积极寻求不同意见来检验自己的框架。受乔什·杨（Josh Yeung）等专家的影响，他配置了硬资产，尤其是石油，因为他相信生产能力投资不足将推高价格。他也持有黄金和白银，尽管他指出它们的表现不佳，但将其作为“全天候”投资组合的一部分。特雷坚信通胀将持续，这主要归因于石油和天然气价格上涨（主要的消费者价格指数组成部分）以及乌克兰冲突可能导致的食品供应链问题。他认为美联储专注于其低失业率和稳定物价的双重使命，将继续加息，并可能在经济出现问题之前矫枉过正。他指出泰勒法则表明，鉴于通胀，当前利率应远高于此（8%以上），并认为前所未有的债务水平（债务与GDP之比达到120%）限制了美联储在不触发“金融加速器”效应、导致市场动荡的情况下将利率提高到2%以上的能力。
关于比特币，特雷认为它是一种“极佳的价值储存资产”，并将其用作“价值储存储蓄账户”，每周进行定期定额投资。尽管他承认其作为交易媒介的潜力，但他主要将其视为一种长期持有物，类似于他计划传给子孙后代的“曼哈顿房地产”。他设想未来比特币和美元可以共存，比特币作为储蓄的“避险通道”、完美的抵押品，以及促成一个更富裕、更少消费驱动的社会机制。他承认自己的观点因居住在美国而有偏见，但承认其对高通胀经济体中的人们具有巨大效用。
特雷分享了他与康普茶公司Better Booch的创业历程。他生动地讲述了早期“白手起家”的日子，从在杂货店手动灌装水壶到将成托盘的瓶子卸到他的小型货车里。他描述了“创业初期与规模化之间的鸿沟”，这是一个充满挑战的阶段，企业“大到无法小，小到无法大”。Better Booch已筹集1000万美元来扩大运营，使其能够扩展到塔吉特（Target）、好市多（Costco）、沃尔玛（Walmart）、斯普劳茨（Sprouts）和全食超市（Whole Foods）等主要零售商。他强调真正热爱自己的产品对于在创业固有的焦虑和不眠之夜中保持动力的重要性。特雷解释说，在好市多等零售商获得货架空间是一个多年的过程，涉及经纪人、构建引人注目的销售故事以及证明与竞争对手相比的“每平方英尺线性销售额”表现。
最后，特雷反思了沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的格言：作为一名投资者让他成为更好的商人，反之亦然。他意识到作为首席执行官，他的主要职责是资本配置，影响着从招聘到工厂投资的每一个决策。他还采纳了巴菲特的理念，即像对待伙伴一样对待股东，旨在提供良好回报并保持问责制。他重视交易的简单性，并相信巴菲特“你无法与品格不佳的人达成好交易”的格言，强调了声誉和“善意累积”在商业关系中的重要性。
This episode of Millennial Investing features a re-shared conversation with Trey Lockerbie, co-founder and CEO of Better Booch kombucha and co-host of "We Study Billionaires." The host, Clay Fink, and Trey discuss how his investment strategy has evolved, his entrepreneurial journey, and macro-economic insights.
Trey's investment strategy has rapidly evolved, moving away from purely quantitative screening to a more diversified approach encompassing Berkshire Hathaway, index funds, and individual "alpha attempts." He now builds his individual stock watchlists from conversations on his show, prioritizing companies within his "circle of competence," particularly in the food and beverage sector, an industry he deeply understands. He proudly cites his successful early investment in UNFI, a Whole Foods distributor, which significantly appreciated after he identified it as undervalued. Trey maintains a 10% allocation limit for individual stocks, aiming for a 15% return, a target he defined by first understanding his long-term financial needs, inspired by Morgan Housel's "enough is enough" philosophy. He admits that knowing when to sell is challenging, often relying on intuition after years of pattern recognition.
Regarding Tesla, Trey expresses a long-term bullish outlook. He views Tesla not just as a car company but as a conglomerate of "12 different startups," vertically integrated and focused on a sustainable future. He acknowledges Elon Musk's "selling the dream" approach as a necessary entrepreneurial tactic to finance ambitious ventures, finding the current price range (around $700-$800) fair for a long-term hold.
The conversation delves into the macro landscape, where Trey actively seeks diverse opinions to stress-test his own frameworks. Influenced by experts like Josh Yeung, he's allocated to hard assets, especially oil, driven by the belief that a lack of investment in production capacity will push prices higher. He also holds gold and silver, though he notes their underperformance, as part of an "all-weather" portfolio. Trey holds a strong thesis that inflation will persist, largely due to rising oil and natural gas prices (major CPI components) and potential food supply chain issues stemming from the conflict in Ukraine. He believes the Federal Reserve, focused on its dual mandate of low unemployment and stable prices, will continue raising rates, potentially overdoing it before something in the economy breaks. He points to the Taylor Rule, which suggests current interest rates should be significantly higher (8%+) given inflation, and argues that the unprecedented debt levels (120% debt-to-GDP) limit the Fed's ability to raise rates much beyond 2% without triggering a "financial accelerator" effect, leading to market turmoil.
On Bitcoin, Trey considers it an "incredible store of value asset" and uses it as a "store of value savings account," dollar-cost averaging weekly. While acknowledging its potential as a medium of exchange, he primarily views it as a long-term holding, akin to "Manhattan real estate," which he plans to pass down to future generations. He envisions a future where Bitcoin and the US dollar can coexist, with Bitcoin serving as an "exit ramp" for savings, pristine collateral, and a mechanism for a more abundant, less consumption-driven society. He admits his perspective is biased by living in the US but acknowledges its profound utility for those in high-inflation economies.
Trey shares his entrepreneurial journey with Better Booch, a kombucha company. He vividly recounts the early days of "bootstrapping," from hand-filling water jugs at a grocery store to unstacking pallets of bottles into his minivan. He describes the "chasm between startup mode and at scale," a challenging phase where businesses are "too big to be small and too small to be big." Better Booch has raised $10 million to scale its operations, allowing it to expand into major retailers like Target, Costco, Walmart, Sprouts, and Whole Foods. He emphasizes the importance of truly loving one's product to sustain motivation through the inherent anxieties and sleepless nights of entrepreneurship. Trey explains that securing shelf space at retailers like Costco is a multi-year process involving brokers, building a compelling sales story, and proving "dollars per linear square foot" performance against competitors.
Finally, Trey reflects on Warren Buffett's maxim that being an investor makes him a better businessman, and vice versa. He realized that as CEO, his primary role is capital allocation, influencing every decision from hiring to plant investments. He also adopted Buffett's philosophy of treating shareholders like partners, aiming to provide good returns and maintain accountability. He values simplicity in deals and believes in Buffett's adage, "you can't make a good deal with a bad person," underscoring the importance of reputation and "compounding goodwill" in business relationships.
摘要
Clay Finck chats with Trey Lockerbie about how his investment strategy has changed with the everchanging macro landscape, how he analyzes the opportunity cost between individual stocks, what asset classes he invests in, how he became the host of TIP’s flagship show, We Study Billionaires, how his kombucha company was able to get stocked at Target and Costco, how being an investor has made Trey a better businessman, and a whole lot more!
Trey Lockerbie is the co-founder and CEO of Better Booch, and previously the co-host of The Investor’s Podcast’s flagship show, We Study Billionaires.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
01:50 - How Trey’s investment strategy has changed with the everchanging macro landscape.
04:30 - How he analyzes the opportunity cost between two different individual stocks.
04:30 - What asset classes he invests in.
34:21 - What he'll be eyeing in the months ahead.
36:37 - How Trey became the host of We Study Billionaires.
51:48 - How his company was able to get stocked at Target and Costco.
53:53 - How being an investor has made Trey a better businessman.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Trey’s company, Better Booch.
Related episode: MI161: Building a Balanced Portfolio w/ Dan Rasmussen.
Related episode: MI135: Bitcoin is for Millennials w/ Preston Pysh.
Related episode: MI127: Life as a Podcast Host, Investing in FinTech, and Buying Rental Properties w/ Robert Leonard.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try Kyle's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Fiscal.AI
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
