MI368: Bill Ackman: The Highs and Lows w/ Shawn O'Malley
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以下是这段内容的中文翻译：
亿万富翁对冲基金经理、潘兴广场（Pershing Square）首席执行官比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的职业生涯既有重大成功，也伴随着公共争议。阿克曼以其果断的激进投资风格和高调的媒体形象而闻名，在过去20年里，为那些坚守其基金的投资者带来了16.5%的复合年化回报率，同期表现优于标普500指数10%的回报率。
阿克曼的职业生涯始于1992年，当时他从哈佛大学获得MBA学位后，共同创立了投资公司Gotham Partners。Gotham Partners一度管理着5亿美元的资产，但该公司最终在2003年倒闭，过程一团糟。这一时期充斥着市场操纵的指控，包括涉及Prepaid Legal的“拉高出货”（pump and dump）计划，以及对他做空MBIA的持续审查，这些都给他的声誉蒙上阴影。尽管早期遭遇挫折，阿克曼仍坚持他对MBIA的看法，他认为这家市政债券保险公司正以虚高的AAA信用评级运营。
2004年，阿克曼以5400万美元的资金创办了潘兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）。随着他在2008年金融危机期间做空MBIA的赌注被证明有先见之明，他迅速获得了救赎。经过多年不懈的努力和发表大量质疑MBIA偿付能力的报告，阿克曼通过信用违约互换（credit default swaps）获利丰厚，为投资者创造了11亿美元的收益。这段故事在《信心游戏》（Confidence Game）一书中有所详述，凸显了他的坚韧不拔和深刻的分析能力。
阿克曼在潘兴广场早期的成功还包括2004年对温迪（Wendy's）的一次成功的激进投资活动。通过收购9.9%的股份，阿克曼迫使该公司分拆了Tim Hortons，为股东释放了巨大价值，并使其投资翻倍。另一个巨大的胜利是他对通用增长合伙人（General Growth Partners）的投资，那是在2008年金融危机期间。阿克曼认识到，尽管这家购物中心运营商面临债务问题，但其资产基本面依然良好，因此在该公司濒临破产之际进行了投资。这一大胆举动，使他以低至0.35美元的价格收购了股票，将6000万美元变成了16亿美元，使其成为“有史以来最伟大的对冲基金交易”之一。
然而，阿克曼的职业生涯也因惨痛的失败和激烈的公开争斗而时有中断。最引人注目的是他长达数年、价值数十亿美元的对康宝莱（Herbalife）的做空押注，他在2012年公开宣称康宝莱是一个非法的金字塔骗局。这导致了他与卡尔·伊坎（Carl Icahn）的激烈公开对战，后者则采取了相反的交易立场。尽管阿克曼进行了广泛的宣传活动，美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）的和解也迫使康宝莱重组业务并支付2亿美元罚款（尽管监管机构并未将其定性为金字塔骗局），阿克曼仍在2018年以巨额亏损平仓了他的空头头寸。
更具破坏性的一段插曲是他对Valeant Pharmaceuticals的投资。在最初从Valeant收购Allergan的竞标中获利后，阿克曼自己也成为了Valeant的主要股东。事实证明，这是一个“非常大的错误”，使潘兴广场损失了大约40亿美元。Valeant因激进的药品定价和可疑的会计操作而面临严厉审查，导致其股价从峰值下跌了96%。阿克曼对该公司的公开辩护，以及他将其比作“处于非常早期的伯克希尔哈撒韦”（very early stage Berkshire）的做法，招致了查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）等人的严厉批评，芒格称Valeant“极其不道德”。
如今，阿克曼已将战略重心转向构建“更持久的资本”。这包括创建SPARC（特殊目的收购权公司），这是一种独特的、无需前期资金的SPAC工具，以及他将潘兴广场上市的宏伟计划。尽管该公司目前管理着163亿美元的资产，但最近的私人股权出售将其估值为105亿美元，这反映出市场对阿克曼利用其个人品牌和社交媒体影响力吸引新投资者的能力抱有很高的期望。他还管理着一只欧洲封闭式基金，并计划推出一只新的美国版本，旨在无限期地锁定资本。他目前的投资组合包括对Alphabet、环球音乐集团（Universal Music Group）、奇波雷（Chipotle）、希尔顿（Hilton）、国际餐饮品牌（Restaurant Brands International）、加拿大太平洋铁路公司（Canadian Pacific）和霍华德休斯（Howard Hughes）的集中持股。
比尔·阿克曼在金融界仍然是一个引人入胜的人物——他是一位杰出的价值投资者，能够发现深层效率低下之处，但也容易犯下代价高昂的错误并卷入高调的公开争斗。他的职业生涯证明了华尔街最高层激进投资的高风险和动荡本质。
Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager and CEO of Pershing Square, has built a career marked by both significant triumphs and public controversies. Known for his assertive activist investing style and a prominent media presence, Ackman has delivered a 16.5% compounded annual return over the last 20 years for investors who stayed with his funds, outperforming the S&P 500's 10% return during the same period.
Ackman’s journey began with Gotham Partners in 1992, an investment firm he co-founded after earning his MBA from Harvard. Gotham Partners grew to manage $500 million, but its eventual implosion by 2003 was messy. Allegations of market manipulation, including a "pump and dump" scheme involving Prepaid Legal and the ongoing scrutiny over his short bet against MBIA, marred this period. Despite the early setbacks, Ackman maintained his conviction regarding MBIA, a municipal bond insurer he believed was operating with an inflated AAA credit rating.
In 2004, Ackman launched Pershing Square Capital Management with $54 million. Redemption came swiftly as his bet against MBIA proved prescient during the 2008 financial crisis. After years of relentless campaigning and publishing extensive research questioning MBIA's solvency, Ackman profited immensely from credit default swaps, generating $1.1 billion in gains for his investors. This saga, detailed in the book "Confidence Game," highlighted his tenacity and analytical depth.
His early successes at Pershing Square also included a profitable activist campaign with Wendy's in 2004. By acquiring a 9.9% stake, Ackman pressured the company to spin off Tim Hortons, unlocking significant value for shareholders and doubling his investment. Another monumental win was his investment in General Growth Partners during the 2008 financial crisis. Recognizing that the mall operator's assets were fundamentally sound despite its debt problems, Ackman invested in the company as it teetered on bankruptcy. This bold move, which saw him acquire shares for as low as $0.35, turned $60 million into $1.6 billion, making it one of the "greatest hedge fund trades of all time."
However, Ackman's career has also been punctuated by spectacular failures and intense public feuds. The most notable was his multi-year, billion-dollar short bet against Herbalife, which he publicly declared an illegal pyramid scheme in 2012. This led to a fierce public battle with Carl Icahn, who took the opposite side of the trade. Despite Ackman's extensive campaigns and a Federal Trade Commission settlement that forced Herbalife to restructure its business and pay a $200 million fine (though regulators stopped short of calling it a pyramid scheme), Ackman closed his short position in 2018 at a considerable loss.
An even more damaging episode was his investment in Valeant Pharmaceuticals. After initially profiting from Valeant's bid for Allergan, Ackman became a major shareholder in Valeant itself. This proved to be a "very big mistake," costing Pershing Square approximately $4 billion. Valiant faced intense scrutiny for aggressive drug pricing and questionable accounting practices, leading to a 96% stock drop from its peak. Ackman's public defense of the company and his comparison of it to a "very early stage Berkshire" drew sharp criticism from figures like Charlie Munger, who called Valeant "deeply immoral."
Today, Ackman has shifted his strategy towards building "more durable capital." This includes the creation of SPARC (Special Purpose Acquisition Rights Company), a unique SPAC vehicle that doesn't require upfront capital, and his audacious plan to take Pershing Square public. The firm's recent private stake sale valued it at $10.5 billion, despite managing $16.3 billion, reflecting high expectations for Ackman's ability to leverage his personal brand and social media influence to attract new investors. He also manages a European closed-end fund and plans a new U.S. version, aiming to lock up capital indefinitely. His current portfolio includes concentrated positions in Alphabet, Universal Music Group, Chipotle, Hilton, Restaurant Brands International, Canadian Pacific, and Howard Hughes.
Bill Ackman remains a captivating figure in finance—a brilliant value investor capable of identifying deep inefficiencies, yet also prone to costly missteps and highly public battles. His career serves as a testament to the high stakes and turbulent nature of activist investing at the highest levels of Wall Street.
摘要
In today’s episode, Shawn O’Malley (@Shawn_OMalley_) breaks down the rollercoaster ride of Bill Ackman’s career, who is one of the most famous investors alive.
You’ll learn about how Ackman’s career got its start, why his biggest successes were so brilliant, why his biggest losses were so painful, what his current portfolio looks like, why his company is looking to IPO, and what sparked his decade-plus feud with billionaire Carl Icahn, plus so much more!
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
02:24 - How Bill Ackman’s career got its start
03:56 - What started the feud between Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn
08:38 - Why Ackman’s first hedge fund, Gotham Partners, failed
15:54 - How Ackman was able to foresee MBIA’s collapse and the 2008 Financial Crisis
19:39 - Why Ackman wanted Wendy’s to spin off Tim Horton’s
22:01 - How Ackman made one of the greatest hedge fund trades ever
30:14 - Why Ackman’s campaign against Herbalife was a financial fiasco but not necessarily wrong
31:36 - What Ackman got incorrect about Valeant Pharmaceuticals
44:37 - What Ackman’s portfolio looks like today and his latest ventures
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Bill Ackman’s question at the 1998 Berkshire shareholder meeting.
2003 NYT article on Gotham Partners.
Highlights from the Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn debate over Herbalife.
Christine Richard's book, Confidence Game.
Bill Ackman’s research on MBIA.
Bill Ackman’s letter to Wendy’s CEO in 2005.
Check out Betting On Zero — Herbalife movie.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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