MI Rewind: The Science of Hitting w/ Alexander Morris
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在一期引人入胜的节目中，《击球科学》(The Science of Hitting) 邮件通讯的创始人、资深股票分析师Alex Morris分享了他全面的投资理念和独到见解。他强调，他的方法根植于成为一个积极的、长期的“企业主”的心态，这使得他能够建立一个基于高度确信的集中式投资组合。
Morris最初的公司分析始于“可理解性”——即轻松理解企业及其潜在单位经济效益的能力。他优先识别真正高质量的企业和卓越的管理团队，将估值视为其流程的最后一步。他引用查理·芒格的话承认，为具有高额、可持续资本回报的企业支付溢价，能带来卓越的长期回报。然而，他告诫不要仅仅依赖表面上的投入资本回报率 (ROIC)。相反，投资者必须深入研究增量单位经济效益，理解企业是如何创造回报的，他举例说明了Chipotle新店的经济效益或零售租赁的细微之处，以及微软等科技巨头庞大的现金余额如何扭曲资产回报率 (ROA)。
关于他的投资组合目标，Morris旨在长期跑赢市场。他采取对股票的“结构性配置”（90-100%），刻意避免市场择时，他观察到这种策略很少奏效。他的投资决策由机会成本驱动，选择现有最佳的10-15家企业，而非追逐绝对的门槛回报率。
Morris谈到了他最大的持仓——伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，他承认其庞大的规模限制了未来的增长，但它提供了较低风险的“压舱石”作用。他将其视为一系列高质量资产的集合，以及新机会的潜在资本来源，反映了他作为投资者的持续演进。他信任所投资公司的领导层，将他们视为他资本的管理者，这与巴菲特对待《华盛顿邮报》的方式如出一辙。
他投资组合中一个更新、风险更高的补充是Spotify，这代表了他投资范围的转变。他的投资论点建立在Spotify在音频流媒体领域的市场领导地位、深度的用户参与、清晰的长期战略（音频优先）以及一个高度专注的管理团队之上。他对短期内的不盈利状况并不担心，将其与Netflix早期的发展轨迹相提并论，预计未来将实现显著的息税前利润 (EBIT) 和用户增长（迈向十亿月活跃用户）。他更看重愿景和执行能力，而非即时财务数据，他理解市场怀疑论往往低估了长期的复利潜力。
Morris坦诚地分享了他过去投资失误的教训，其中包括JCPenney、IBM和卡夫亨氏。他的主要经验教训包括：
1. **忽视客户相关性下降：** 忽视公司正在输给竞争对手的迹象。
2. **估值高于质量：** 让有吸引力的估值掩盖了企业基本面的恶化。
3. **盲目跟随，缺乏信念：** 过度依赖其他投资者的声誉（例如巴菲特对IBM的投资），而没有独立深入的理解。
4. **过度自信和固执：** 未能承认警告信号，并在市场表明他错误时调整其投资论点。
他强调持续的营收增长是衡量健康企业的主要指标，并警告要警惕“价值陷阱”，即表面上便宜的价格可能掩盖了由于客户偏好演变或颠覆性变化而导致的最终衰退。
对于有抱负的投资者，Morris推荐了一些基础读物，如伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东信、彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）以业务为先方法的书籍、约翰·汉普顿（John Hempton）的《何时摊低成本》(When to Average Down)、Aukri Capital的《不卖的艺术》(The Art of Not Selling) 提供关于卖出的逆向思维，以及《Spotify玩法》(The Spotify Play) 以获取商业策略洞察。
您可以通过thescienceofhitting.com网站和Twitter账号@TSOH_investing关注Alex Morris，获取深度公司分析、投资组合透明度和投资理念讨论。
In a captivating episode, Alex Morris, founder of "The Science of Hitting" newsletter and a seasoned equity analyst, shares his comprehensive investment philosophy and insights. He emphasizes that his approach is rooted in being an active, long-term "business owner," leading to a concentrated portfolio built on high conviction.
Morris's initial company analysis begins with "understandability" – the ability to grasp the business and its underlying unit economics easily. He prioritizes identifying truly high-quality businesses and exceptional management teams, considering valuation only as the final step in his process. Citing Charlie Munger, he acknowledges that paying a premium for a business with high, sustainable returns on capital can yield excellent long-term results. However, he cautions against relying solely on headline Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Instead, investors must delve into incremental unit economics, understanding *how* a business generates returns, citing examples like Chipotle's new store economics or the nuances of retail leases, and how large cash balances can distort ROA for tech giants like Microsoft.
Regarding his portfolio objective, Morris aims to outperform the market over the long term. He adopts a "structural allocation" to equities (90-100%), deliberately avoiding market timing, a strategy he's observed rarely works well. His investment decisions are driven by opportunity cost, selecting the best 10-15 businesses available rather than chasing absolute hurdle rates.
Morris discusses his largest holding, Berkshire Hathaway, acknowledging that its sheer size limits future growth but provides a "ballast" of lower risk. He views it as a collection of high-quality assets and a potential source of capital for new opportunities, reflecting his continuous evolution as an investor. He trusts the leadership of companies he invests in, seeing them as stewards of his capital, echoing Buffett's approach with the Washington Post.
A newer, higher-risk addition to his portfolio is Spotify, representing a shift in his investment scope. His thesis is built on Spotify's market leadership in audio streaming, deep user engagement, a clear long-term strategy (audio-first), and a highly focused management team. He's unconcerned by short-term unprofitability, drawing parallels to Netflix's earlier journey, projecting significant future EBIT and subscriber growth (towards a billion MAUs). He values the vision and execution capacity over immediate financials, understanding that market skepticism often undervalues long-term compounding potential.
Morris candidly shares lessons from past investment mistakes, including JCPenney, IBM, and Kraft Heinz. His key takeaways include:
1. **Ignoring declining customer relevance:** Overlooking signs that companies were losing ground to competitors.
2. **Valuation over quality:** Allowing attractive valuations to overshadow fundamental business deterioration.
3. **Tailing without conviction:** Relying too heavily on other investors' reputations (like Buffett's IBM investment) without independent, deep understanding.
4. **Overconfidence and stubbornness:** Failing to acknowledge warning signs and adapting his thesis when the market indicated he was wrong.
He stresses the importance of continuous revenue growth as a primary indicator of a healthy business and warns against "value traps" where a seemingly cheap price masks terminal decline due to evolving customer preferences or disruption.
For aspiring investors, Morris recommends foundational readings such as Berkshire Hathaway's shareholder letters, Peter Lynch's books for a business-first approach, John Hempton's "When to Average Down," Aukri Capital's "The Art of Not Selling" for a contrarian view on selling, and "The Spotify Play" for business strategy insights.
Alex Morris can be followed at thescienceofhitting.com and on Twitter at @TSOH_investing for deep-dive company analysis, portfolio transparency, and investment philosophy discussions.
摘要
Clay Finck chats with Alexander Morris about the initial things Alex looks at when analyzing a company, why paying up for quality companies is acceptable for long-term investors, how ROIC plays a role in Alex’s investment decisions, why Alex recently added Spotify to his portfolio, how Alex thinks about Spotify’s valuation and their path to profitability, and much more!
Alexander Morris provides high-quality equity research with deep dive company analysis and complete portfolio transparency through his newsletter, The Science of Hitting. Prior to working on his newsletter full-time, Alex was an analyst for an RIA for 10 years.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
03:00 - The initial things Alex looks at when analyzing a company.
08:37 - Why paying up for quality companies is acceptable for long-term investors.
11:33 - How ROIC plays a role in Alex’s investment decisions.
13:58 - What the objective of Alex’s portfolio is.
32:37 - Why Alex recently added Spotify to his portfolio.
35:59 - How Alex thinks about Spotify’s valuation and their path to profitability.
44:38 - The mistakes that Alex has learned over the years.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Check out Alex’s Newsletter.
Read Sven Carlsson’s book, The Spotify Play.
Read Peter Lynch’s book, One Up on Wall Street.
Read Peter Lynch’s book, Beating the Street.
Read Berkshire’s shareholder letters.
Related episode: Listen to MI149: Peter Lynch & GARP Investing w/ Robert Reynolds, or watch the video.
Related episode: Listen to MI131: Richer, Wiser, Happier w/ William Green, or watch the video.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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