MI365: The Memos of Howard Marks w/ Shawn O'Malley
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播客主持人肖恩·奥马利（Sean O'Malley）深入探讨了橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）的投资智慧，并从马克斯传奇性的备忘录中探寻了关键见解，着重强调了他的逆向投资法、风险控制理念以及对市场周期的理解。
马克斯1990年的首份备忘录《通向绩效之路》（The Route to Performance）为其投资哲学奠定了基础，该哲学在2023年的《少犯错，多赢利》（Fewer Losers or More Winners）中再次被重申。他反对每年都追求顶尖业绩，因为这往往意味着也必须承受垫底的风险。相反，马克斯主张持续取得略高于平均水平的回报，避免极端的波动和灾难性的损失。例如，一个从未进入前10%但始终保持在前50%的养老基金，长期来看却能产生前10%的回报。橡树资本经久不衰的座右铭——“如果我们避免了亏损者，盈利者自然会照顾好自己”——便源于这一理念，将投资视为一种“消极的艺术”，类似于债券投资中避免违约至关重要的原则。
马克斯阐明，风险控制并非规避风险。虽然规避不确定性会限制回报，但承担明智的风险意味着只承担那些可理解、可分析、可分散并能获得足够回报的风险。他将其比作人寿保险公司，尽管知道所有客户终将离世，却依然能盈利。然而，对于追求远高于债券回报的股票投资者而言，仅仅避免亏损者是不够的；还必须识别出赢家。马克斯承认持有这些“赢家”的挑战，他以苹果（Apple）和“壮丽七股”（Magnificent Seven）为例，指出多元化往往导致投资者过早卖出，从而阻碍了跑赢市场。因此，目标是在持有更少亏损者和找到更多赢家之间取得平衡，并结合自身的特长，以实现真正的经风险调整后的超额回报。
播客随后转向了马克斯在市场功能极度失调时期所做的有先见之明的市场判断。他在全球金融危机期间撰写的2008年备忘录《无人知晓》（Nobody Knows）强调了普遍存在的不确定性以及情绪化决策的危险。他将危机的发生归咎于贪婪、低利率助长的冒险行为、新颖的金融工程、对评级机构的过度依赖以及“房子只会涨不会跌”等金融陈词滥调。他批判性地看待《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》（Glass-Steagall Act）的废除和“大到不能倒”的心态，认为这些是结构性脆弱性。马克斯曾提出著名的建议，即对负面消息抱有怀疑，指出普遍恐慌往往提供了“一生难遇的买入机会”。他投资版的帕斯卡赌注是：假设金融系统不会崩溃，因为如果崩溃了，其他一切都无关紧要；但如果它没有崩溃，那么作为逆向投资者购买折价资产将带来巨额收益。
马克斯早期的警告包括21世纪初的《互联网泡沫》（Bubble.com），他在其中认识到其与历史泡沫的相似之处，指出了对那些毫无盈利的公司进行狂热竞标的现象，这先于纳斯达克指数80%的暴跌。在2004年的《今日风险与回报》（Risk and Return Today）中，他警告称低利率出于无奈将投资者推向风险更高的资产，这是次贷危机的前兆。他2005年的备忘录《他们又来了》（There They Go Again）批判了围绕房地产的“这次不同”的谬误，指出房价上涨与租金持平之间的脱节。到了2007年（《一切都好》It's All Good），马克斯清晰阐明了周期的必然性以及市场在贪婪和恐惧两极之间的钟摆式波动，他主张理解自己所处的周期阶段，而不是预测其轨迹。橡树资本在雷曼兄弟破产后的防御性姿态以及随后部署的110亿美元不良债务基金，证明了这种逆向立场的强大力量。
马克斯在2012年的《似曾相识》（Deja Vu All Over Again）中重申了他的逆向观点，将其与1979年一篇题为《股票已死》（Death of Equities）的文章进行了比较，那篇文章发表后便迎来了一轮大规模牛市，他断言极度悲观提供了重大的买入机会。最后，在2020年新冠疫情引发的崩盘期间，他在《无人知晓之二》（Nobody Knows Too）中承认疫情走向的不可知性，但认识到大规模抛售创造了廉价机会，主张在他人失去理智时保持清醒头脑。
马克斯强调，这“五大最引以为傲的市场判断”凸显了此类明确机会的稀有性。他建议不要频繁进行宏观预测，而是敦促投资者成为历史的学生，识别模式以及驱动市场的情绪波动。在重视自下而上分析的同时，他强调了“把握市场脉搏”和理解宏观环境的必要性。他指出，橡树资本很少依赖乐观的假设。马克斯以一个深刻的见解作结：投资的“弥天大罪”是在底部抛售，因为它会使下跌波动成为永久性的。相反，在市场顶部买入的损害较小，因为随后的顶部通常会更高，从而允许最终的复苏。
In a deep dive into the investing wisdom of Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, podcast host Sean O'Malley explores key insights from Marks' legendary memos, emphasizing his contrarian approach, risk control philosophy, and understanding of market cycles.
Marks' inaugural 1990 memo, "The Route to Performance," set the stage for his philosophy, later revisited in "Fewer Losers or More Winners" (2023). He argued against aiming for top-tier performance every year, which necessitates being willing to hit bottom-tier results. Instead, Marks advocated for consistently achieving slightly above-average returns, avoiding extreme volatility and catastrophic losses. This approach, exemplified by a pension fund that never ranked in the top decile but consistently stayed in the top half, yielded top-decile returns over the long run. Oaktree’s enduring motto, "if we avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves," stems from this idea, viewing investing as a "negative art" – similar to bond investing where avoiding defaults is paramount.
Marks clarifies that risk control is not risk avoidance. While avoiding uncertainty limits returns, intelligent risk bearing involves taking only those risks that are understood, analyzable, diversifiable, and sufficiently rewarded. He likens it to life insurance companies profiting despite knowing all clients will eventually die. However, for stock investors seeking returns well above bonds, simply avoiding losers isn't enough; one must also identify winners. Marks acknowledges the challenge of holding onto these "winners," citing examples like Apple and the "Magnificent Seven," where diversification often leads investors to sell too early, hindering market outperformance. The goal, then, is to find a balance between owning fewer losers and finding more winners, aligning with one's skills for true risk-adjusted outperformance.
The podcast then shifts to Marks' prescient market calls during periods of extreme market dysfunction. His 2008 memo, "Nobody Knows," written amidst the Global Financial Crisis, highlighted the pervasive uncertainty and the danger of emotional decision-making. He blamed the crisis on greed, risk-taking fueled by low interest rates, novel financial engineering, excessive reliance on rating agencies, and financial platitudes like "houses always go up." He critically viewed the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the "too big to fail" mentality as structural vulnerabilities. Marks famously advised applying skepticism to negative news, suggesting that widespread panic often presents "the buying opportunity of a lifetime." His investing equivalent of Pascal's Wager: assume the financial system will not collapse, because if it does, nothing else matters, but if it doesn't, acting as a contrarian and buying discounted assets will lead to immense gains.
Marks' earlier warnings included "Bubble.com" (early 2000s), where he recognized parallels to historical bubbles, pointing out euphoric bidding on companies with no profits, preceding the 80% NASDAQ crash. In "Risk and Return Today" (2004), he cautioned against low interest rates pushing investors into riskier assets out of necessity, a precursor to the subprime crisis. His 2005 memo, "There They Go Again," critiqued the "this time it's different" fallacy surrounding real estate, noting the disconnect between rising home prices and flat rents. By 2007 ("It's All Good"), Marks clearly articulated the inevitability of cycles and the market's pendulum swing between extremes of greed and fear, advocating for understanding where one is in the cycle, rather than predicting its trajectory. Oaktree’s defensive posture and subsequent deployment of an $11 billion distressed debt fund post-Lehman proved the power of this contrarian stance.
Marks reiterated his contrarian view in 2012's "Deja Vu All Over Again," drawing parallels to the "Death of Equities" article in 1979 that preceded a massive bull market, asserting that extreme pessimism offers significant buying opportunities. Finally, in "Nobody Knows Too" (2020), amidst the COVID-induced crash, Marks acknowledged the unknowability of the pandemic's course but recognized that massive selling created bargains, advocating for keeping a clear head when others are losing theirs.
Marks emphasizes that these "five proudest market calls" underscore the rarity of such clear-cut opportunities. He advises against frequent macro predictions, instead urging investors to be students of history, recognizing patterns and the emotional swings that drive markets. While valuing bottom-up analysis, he stresses the necessity of "taking the temperature" of the market and understanding the macro environment. Oaktree, he notes, rarely relies on optimistic assumptions. Marks concludes with a powerful insight: the "cardinal sin of investing" is selling at the bottom, as it makes downward fluctuations permanent. Buying at a market top, conversely, is less damaging because subsequent tops are typically higher, allowing eventual recovery.
摘要
In today’s episode, Shawn O’Malley (@Shawn_OMalley_) breaks down 30 years’ worth of memos from one of Wall Street’s most storied investors: Howard Marks.
You’ll learn how Marks’s thinking about beating the market evolved over the course of his career, what it was like going through the 2008 Financial Crisis as a professional investor, the 5 market calls that Marks is most proud of, avoiding the cardinal sin of investing, plus so much more!
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
01:38 - Why steady, slightly above-average returns drive the best long-term returns
05:28 - How to find a balance between finding fewer losers and more winners
07:36 - How to intelligently bear risk for profit
13:48 - Why nobody knows what will happen next in a crisis
14:40 - Why booms and busts are inevitable
22:44 - When Marks realized the dot com bubble was going to pop
24:08 - How low interest rates drive investors to take risks
27:33 - Why beliefs about the housing market were wrong
30:45 - How Marks’s firm responded to the Great Financial Crisis
36:02 - How Marks understood when to start buying stocks again after the 2008 crash
37:59 - When Marks knew bargains were being offered in March 2020
39:37 - How to avoid the cardinal sin of investing
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
2023 Memo: Taking The Temperature.
2023 Memo: Fewer Winners Or Losers?
2012 Memo: Deja Vu All Over Again.
2008 Memo: The Limits To Negativism.
2008 Memo: Nobody Knows.
2007 Memo: It’s All Good.
2005 Memo: Three They Go Again.
2004 Memo: Risk And Return Today.
2000 Memo: Bubble.com.
1990 Memo: The Route To Performance.
Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's book Security Analysis.
Jesse Livermore's book How To Trade In Stocks.
Edward Chancellor's book Devil Takes The Hindmost.
Howard Marks' book Mastering The Market Cycle.
Howard Marks' book The Most Important Thing.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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