MI Rewind: Why Deflation is Key to an Abundant Future w/ Jeff Booth
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《明日的代价》（The Price of Tomorrow）作者杰夫·布斯（Jeff Booth）在播客中探讨了他的核心论点：指数级发展的技术与我们当前的信贷货币体系之间即将发生的冲突。他认为，这场冲突是全球经济不稳定和日益加剧的社会动荡的根本原因，这使得我们有必要从根本上改变对货币的看法。
布斯提出，技术本质上是通货紧缩的驱动力，随着时间的推移，使商品和服务变得更便宜、更丰富。他以智能手机摄像头为例，其将摄影成本降至几乎为零；以及音乐行业，数字发行使其成本骤降。他认为，这种技术力量是无情的且正在加速。然而，我们普遍存在的信贷金融体系为了避免崩溃，*必须*存在通货膨胀。在一个建立在债务基础上的体系中，通货紧缩将使负债无法偿还，引发一连串的违约和银行倒闭。布斯明确将通货膨胀称为“盗窃”，这是一种政府赖以资助运作和管理不断增长的债务的隐藏税收。
定价上的脱节——一些商品（如技术产品）变得更便宜，而另一些（医疗保健、教育、住房）变得更昂贵——突显了这一冲突。后者直接受到货币体系通胀需求的冲击，而前者则受益于技术创新，即便是在通胀压力之下。布斯指出，在20年间，全球185万亿美元的刺激措施仅产生了46万亿美元的经济增长，这种不可持续的比例证明了该系统在对抗通货紧缩方面的失败挣扎。
人为的低利率作为助长通货膨胀的机制，无意中使得苹果和亚马逊等大型企业能够借贷巨额资金。这些公司随后投资并加速通货紧缩技术的发展，讽刺的是，这反而创造了垄断，并集中了财富和权力。这种集中，尤其是在人工智能和机器人技术领域，如果得不到遏制，可能会导致一个反乌托邦的未来。
布斯勾勒了人类可能面临的三个“大门”：
1. **持续通货膨胀：** 这是当前的道路，将导致财富不平等加剧、社会动荡，从历史上看，还会引发革命或战争，因为中产阶级和下层阶级不断被上涨的成本和贬值的储蓄所贫困化。
2. **允许通货紧缩：** 一种灾难性情景，信贷体系崩溃，导致银行大面积倒闭和经济破坏，其程度远超大萧条。
3. **新系统（比特币）：** 一座通向与技术富足相符的系统的潜在“桥梁”，它将促进全球合作而非竞争性破坏。
他认为，通货膨胀对于健康经济是必要的这一普遍看法是一种误解，是为了维持信贷体系而延续的。即使知道技术先进的产品以后会更便宜，人们仍然会购买它们，这表明驱动消费的是价值，而不仅仅是折旧。此外，布斯将通货膨胀与气候变化直接联系起来，声称一个需要永续增长的体系与环境可持续性根本上是不相容的。一个通货紧缩的系统，通过鼓励储蓄和审慎消费，将自然与气候目标相一致。
对于美联储近期转向量化紧缩和加息，布斯持怀疑态度。他预测，虽然短期内可能出现市场波动和美元走强，但美联储无法长期维持紧缩政策，否则将引发系统性崩溃。最终，他预计美联储将被迫采取更大规模的宽松政策，以避免这种结果。
布斯将比特币视为“我们一生中最大的不对称赌注”。如果当前系统在紧缩政策下崩溃，比特币没有交易对手风险的特性使其成为新的基础。如果更可能出现进一步宽松的情景，比特币则可作为对抗货币贬值的安全资产。他将比特币描述为一种根本性的货币“网络协议”，类似于互联网的TCP/IP协议，能够实现快速的“第二层”创新。布斯认为，比特币为人类创造了一个“聚焦点”（shelling point），将激励转向合作，并确保价值创造为所有人带来更低的价格，使经济激励与人类繁荣相一致。
对于个人，布斯的首要建议是持续地“平均成本法”（dollar-cost average）投资比特币，将其视为首要任务。他还强调了比特币这样低门槛的新网络所带来的巨大创业机会，这与互联网如何使新企业挑战既有垄断者的情况如出一辙。他指出，尽管进展缓慢，但私营企业越来越多地考虑或采用比特币作为其资产负债表的一部分，认识到法定货币的价值正在不断贬值。
Jeff Booth, author of "The Price of Tomorrow," joined the podcast to discuss his central thesis: the impending collision between exponentially advancing technology and our current credit-based monetary system. He argues that this conflict is the root cause of global economic instability and growing social unrest, necessitating a fundamental shift in how we conceive of money.
Booth posits that technology inherently drives deflation, making goods and services cheaper and more abundant over time. He illustrates this with examples like smartphone cameras, which have reduced the cost of photography to nearly zero, or the music industry, which saw costs plummet with digital distribution. This technological force, he argues, is relentless and accelerating. However, our prevailing credit-based financial system *must* have inflation to avoid collapse. In a system built on debt, deflation would make liabilities unpayable, triggering a cascade of defaults and bank failures. Booth unequivocally labels inflation as "theft," a hidden tax that governments rely on to fund operations and manage ever-growing debt.
The disconnect in pricing, where some goods (like technology) get cheaper while others (healthcare, education, housing) become more expensive, highlights this conflict. The latter sectors are directly impacted by the monetary system's need to inflate, while the former benefit from technological innovation, often despite inflationary pressures. Booth points to the unsustainable ratio of $185 trillion in global stimulus over 20 years yielding only $46 trillion in economic growth as proof of the system's failing struggle against deflation.
Artificially low interest rates, a mechanism to fuel inflation, inadvertently empower mega-corporations like Apple and Amazon to borrow vast sums. These companies then invest in and accelerate deflationary technologies, ironically creating monopolies and concentrating wealth and power. This concentration, especially in AI and robotics, could lead to a dystopian future if unchecked.
Booth outlines three potential "doors" for humanity:
1. **Continued Inflation:** The current path, leading to ever-increasing wealth inequality, social unrest, and historically, revolution or war, as the middle and lower classes are constantly impoverished by rising costs and depreciating savings.
2. **Allowed Deflation:** A catastrophic scenario where the credit-based system collapses, leading to widespread bank failures and economic devastation far exceeding the Great Depression.
3. **A New System (Bitcoin):** A potential "bridge" to a system congruent with technological abundance, fostering global cooperation rather than competitive destruction.
He argues that the common belief that inflation is necessary for a healthy economy is a misconception, perpetuated to maintain the credit-based system. People still buy technologically advanced products even when knowing they'll be cheaper later, demonstrating that value, not just depreciation, drives consumption. Moreover, Booth links inflation directly to climate change, asserting that a system requiring perpetual growth is fundamentally incompatible with environmental sustainability. A deflationary system, by encouraging saving and thoughtful consumption, would naturally align with climate goals.
Regarding the Federal Reserve's recent pivot towards quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes, Booth is skeptical. He predicts that while there might be short-term market volatility and a stronger dollar, the Fed cannot sustain tightening for long without triggering a systemic collapse. Ultimately, he expects they will be forced into even greater easing to prevent such an outcome.
Booth views Bitcoin as "the greatest asymmetric bet of our lifetime." If the current system collapses under tightening, Bitcoin's lack of counterparty risk positions it as a new foundation. If the more probable scenario of further easing occurs, Bitcoin serves as a safe asset against monetary debasement. He describes Bitcoin as a fundamental "network protocol" for money, akin to TCP/IP for the internet, enabling rapid "layer two" innovations. Bitcoin, he contends, creates a "shelling point" for humanity, shifting incentives towards cooperation and ensuring that value creation leads to lower prices for everyone, aligning economic incentives with human flourishing.
For individuals, Booth's primary advice is to "dollar-cost average" into Bitcoin consistently, considering it a top priority. He also highlights the immense entrepreneurial opportunities that arise from a new, low-barrier-to-entry network like Bitcoin, echoing how the internet enabled new businesses to challenge established monopolies. While slow, he notes that private companies are increasingly considering or adopting Bitcoin for their balance sheets, recognizing the diminishing value of fiat cash.
摘要
Clay Finck chats with Jeff Booth about inflation and deflation, why inflation isn’t necessarily ‘good’ for a healthy and thriving economy, why so many people are missing the fact that deflation and technological innovation is too powerful of a force to stop, why Jeff believes that Bitcoin is positioned to perform well over the long-term, and much much more!
Jeff Booth is a technology entrepreneur and founder of BuildDirect which is now a company with a market capitalization of over $500 million.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
06:10 - The two colliding forces at an exponential rate and why they are the most important thing for investors to understand.
10:37 - An example of deflation playing out in our everyday lives.
12:07 - Why there has been such a huge disconnect in the price changes between certain industries.
29:29 - Why inflation isn’t necessarily ‘good’ for a healthy and thriving economy.
32:55 - Why so many people are missing the fact that deflation and technological innovation is too powerful of a force to stop.
40:09 - Whether the Federal Reserve can perform quantitative tightening or not in the future.
41:22 - Why Jeff believes that Bitcoin is both an asymmetric bet and one of the safest places to store value.
46:22 - How investors can potentially benefit from these massive shifts in our economy.
49:10 - What Jeff is seeing for Bitcoin adoption from the private companies he works with.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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