MI Rewind: Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, and Blockchain Part 2 w/ Preston Pysh

以下是内容的中文翻译： 在《千禧年投资》播客（Millennial Investing podcast）的第二部分精彩讨论中，主持人罗伯特·伦纳德（Robert Leonard）和普雷斯顿·皮什（Preston Pysh）深入探讨了比特币和加密货币的复杂性，回答了关于其机制、价值和未来的关键问题。 普雷斯顿首先解释了**比特币挖矿**，将其比作实体黄金挖矿。正如金矿工人消耗资源开采稀缺商品一样，比特币矿工利用计算能力来解决复杂的数学“谜题”。这些谜题大约每10分钟发布一次，只能通过使用SHA-256等单向加密函数进行猜测来解决。当矿工解决谜题时，他们就验证了一个交易区块，将其添加到区块链并保护了网络安全。普雷斯顿解释说，这种“工作量证明”（proof of work）机制至关重要，因为它使得篡改过去交易在数学和经济上都不可行。 讨论随后转向了**“工作量证明”（proof of work）和“权益证明”（proof of stake）**机制之间的争论。普雷斯顿认为，比特币的工作量证明机制，就像开采黄金的成本一样，赋予了它内在价值。这种生产成本，加上预设的减半事件（每四年新比特币的挖矿奖励减半），有助于确立价格底部并推动其稀缺性。当挖矿难度增加或奖励减半时，矿工不愿以更低的价格出售，从而推高价格并吸引新的参与者。普雷斯顿认为，这种机制是比特币价格持续上涨并符合梅特卡夫定律（Metcalfe's law）的原因。 罗伯特提出了**比特币起源**这一“令人费解”的问题，惊叹于创建这样一个系统所需的跨学科天才——它涵盖了博弈论、经济学、网络效应、品牌、营销和高级编程。中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的匿名性也被强调为一种战略举措，吸取了Facebook Libra等项目的失败教训，后者因其已知支持者而立即受到审查。 关于**比特币的估值**，罗伯特指出难以应用传统的内在价值分析。然而，普雷斯顿提供了一个基于潜在市值的框架。他保守预测，如果比特币开始取代法定货币，其市值可能达到2万亿美元（从当时1800亿美元上涨10倍），甚至可能达到30万亿美元（上涨164倍）。他估计这可能在10年内发生，年回报率达到30-76%。普雷斯顿将此比作计算股票的内部收益率（IRR），以预测未来价值。他还向听众保证，即使是100美元这样的小额投资，通过分数所有权也能获得相同的百分比回报。 一个核心争议点是**比特币作为货币还是投资品**的角色。罗伯特质疑为什么会有人将比特币这种高度增值的资产用于日常交易。普雷斯顿讲述了第一次用比特币购买披萨的著名故事（10,000 BTC，现在价值相当于湾流公务机和豪宅）。他引用了最近与马克·库班（Mark Cuban）在推特上的辩论，后者因比特币在其达拉斯独行侠队比赛中交易使用率低而对其持怀疑态度。普雷斯顿解释说，库班和许多人一样，误解了比特币的主要功能：它并非旨在解决交易问题，而是一个“主权层面的货币基线问题”。人们被激励持有比特币而非花费它，因为法定货币正在相对比特币贬值。 普雷斯顿承认**比特币的高波动性**（年化波动率约68%），但建议通过适当的投资组合配置来管理风险，指出即使1%的配置也能带来显著回报。他指出，历史数据显示，在任何一个四年周期（与减半周期一致）内持有比特币，即使只有1%的敞口，其回报也往往与标普500指数持平或更高。对于入场时机，他建议使用Mayer Multiple和Plan B的库存流量模型等工具，并指出当前时期（截至录音时）对买家有利。 关于**政府监管和潜在禁令**，普雷斯顿认为大规模禁令是无效的。他引用了中国在2017年失败的尝试，并将其与德国为比特币创建支持性法律框架的努力进行对比，认为这是吸引商业和资本的战略举措。他认为任何试图禁止比特币的国家都可能失去其竞争优势。从技术上讲，禁止比特币也很困难，VPN和卫星广播即使在没有传统互联网服务提供商的情况下也能支持其继续使用。 普雷斯顿指出，一个主要的**误解**是认为比特币主要用于日常交易，他引用了罗杰·维尔（Roger Ver）的“比特币现金”（Bitcoin Cash）和马克·库班（Mark Cuban）的怀疑态度作为这种误解的例子。他重申，比特币的真正目的是充当全球基准或底层货币层，就像布雷顿森林体系（Bretton Woods era）下黄金用于央行间结算一样，而不是用于商店里的个人支付。 最后，普雷斯顿为千禧一代投资者提供了**可操作的建议**： * **获取敞口**：他认为不持有比特币敞口是“疯狂的”。 * **理解四年周期**：在周期高峰（预计下一个高峰在2021年末）时谨慎买入，在有利时期则更积极。 * **做好功课**：质疑一切，特别是高回报承诺，并进行彻底研究以建立信念。 * **从小额开始**：购买一小部分比特币以“参与其中”，这在心理上会促使你进一步学习和理解。 * **关注可靠来源**：他推荐亚当·巴克（Adam Back）、尼克·萨博（Nick Szabo）和詹姆森·洛普（Jameson Lopp）等工程师和长期贡献者，以及斯特凡·利维拉（Stefan Levera）、Noted和特蕾西·梅耶（Trace Mayer）的播客，以及《加密货币时代》（The Age of Cryptocurrency）、《比特币标准》（The Bitcoin Standard）和《中本聪之书》（The Book of Satoshi）等书籍。他还推荐了耶鲁大学在Coursera上的免费比特币课程。 普雷斯顿最后强调，怀疑是健康的，但应引导至深入研究，因为真正的理解对于驾驭比特币这种波动但可能带来丰厚回报的旅程至关重要。

In the second part of a fascinating discussion on the Millennial Investing podcast, hosts Robert Leonard and Preston Pysh delve deeper into the intricacies of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, addressing key questions about its mechanics, value, and future. Preston begins by explaining **Bitcoin mining**, drawing an analogy to physical gold mining. Just as gold miners expend resources to extract a scarce commodity, Bitcoin miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical "riddles." These riddles, published roughly every 10 minutes, can only be solved through guesswork using a one-way encryption function like SHA-256. When a miner solves the riddle, they validate a block of transactions, adding it to the blockchain and securing the network. This "proof of work" mechanism, Preston explains, is crucial because it makes it mathematically and economically unfeasible to tamper with past transactions. The conversation then shifts to the debate between **"proof of work" and "proof of stake"** mechanisms. Preston argues that Bitcoin's proof of work, much like the cost of extracting gold, gives it intrinsic value. This cost of production, combined with the programmed halving events (where the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half every four years), helps establish a price floor and drives its scarcity. When the mining difficulty increases or rewards halve, miners are unwilling to sell for less, pushing the price up and attracting new participants. This mechanism, Preston contends, is why Bitcoin's price continues to appreciate and aligns with Metcalfe's law. Robert raises the "mind-bending" question of **Bitcoin's origin**, marveling at the multidisciplinary genius required to create such a system—encompassing game theory, economics, network effects, branding, marketing, and advanced programming. The anonymity of Satoshi Nakamoto, its creator, is also highlighted as a strategic move, learning from failures like Facebook's Libra, which was immediately scrutinized due to its known backers. Regarding **Bitcoin's valuation**, Robert points out the difficulty of applying traditional intrinsic value analysis. Preston, however, offers a framework based on potential market capitalization. He conservatively projects Bitcoin's market cap could reach $2 trillion (a 10x return from its then-$180 billion) and possibly $30 trillion (a 164x return) if it starts replacing fiat currencies. He estimates this could happen within 10 years, yielding annual returns of 30-76%. Preston likens this to calculating an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for a stock, projecting future value. He also assures listeners that even small investments, like $100, can yield the same percentage returns through fractional ownership. A central point of contention is **Bitcoin's role as a currency versus an investment**. Robert questions why anyone would spend a highly appreciating asset like Bitcoin for daily transactions. Preston recounts the famous story of the first Bitcoin pizza purchase (10,000 BTC, now worth Gulfstream jets and mansions). He uses a recent Twitter debate with Mark Cuban, who was skeptical of Bitcoin due to its low transactional use at his Mavs games. Preston explains that Cuban, like many, misunderstands Bitcoin's primary function: it's not designed to solve transactional problems, but rather a "monetary baseline at a sovereign level problem." People are incentivized to *hold* Bitcoin, not spend it, because fiat currencies are devaluing against it. Preston acknowledges **Bitcoin's high volatility** (around 68% annually) but advises managing this risk through proper portfolio sizing, suggesting even a 1% allocation can yield significant returns. He notes that historical data shows holding Bitcoin for any four-year period (aligning with the halving cycle) has often matched or exceeded S&P 500 returns, even with just 1% exposure. For timing purchases, he recommends using tools like the Mayer Multiple and Plan B's stock-to-flow model, noting that the current period (as of the recording) is advantageous for buyers. On **government regulation and potential bans**, Preston dismisses widespread bans as ineffective. He cites China's failed attempt in 2017 and contrasts it with Germany's efforts to create supportive legal frameworks for Bitcoin, seeing it as a strategic move to attract business and capital. He argues that any country attempting a ban would likely lose its competitive edge. Technologically, banning Bitcoin is also difficult, with VPNs and satellite broadcasts enabling continued usage even without traditional internet service providers. Preston identifies a major **misconception** as the belief that Bitcoin is primarily for everyday transactions, citing Roger Ver's "Bitcoin Cash" and Mark Cuban's skepticism as examples of this misunderstanding. He reiterates that Bitcoin's true purpose is to serve as a global peg or underlying monetary layer, much like gold functioned during the Bretton Woods era for inter-central bank settlements, not for individual payments at stores. Finally, Preston offers **actionable advice for millennial investors**: * **Get exposure:** He believes it's "nuts" not to have some Bitcoin exposure. * **Understand the four-year cycle:** Be cautious about buying at the peak of the cycle (projected late 2021 for the next peak) and more aggressive during advantageous periods. * **Do your homework:** Question everything, especially high promises, and research thoroughly to build conviction. * **Start small:** Buy a fraction of a Bitcoin to gain "skin in the game," which psychologically motivates further learning and understanding. * **Follow reliable sources:** He recommends engineers and long-term contributors like Adam Back, Nick Szabo, and Jameson Lopp, along with podcasts by Stefan Levera, Noted, and Trace Mayer, and books like "The Age of Cryptocurrency," "The Bitcoin Standard," and "The Book of Satoshi." He also suggests Yale's free Coursera course on Bitcoin. Preston concludes by emphasizing that skepticism is healthy but should lead to in-depth research, as true understanding is essential to navigating Bitcoin's volatile but potentially rewarding journey.