MI Rewind: Investing in Commodities w/ David Morgan
发布时间 来源
Episode 设置
本期播客节目中，“千禧一代投资”的罗伯特·伦纳德采访了贵金属行业的知名分析师、《摩根报告》的出版人大卫·摩根。讨论围绕理解和投资大宗商品展开，特别聚焦于白银。
摩根首先分享了他的个人背景，透露出他早期对货币和金融的浓厚兴趣，这使他开始区分“诚实货币”（由黄金和白银等大宗商品支撑的货币）和“不诚实货币”（法定货币）。他认为，纵观历史，健全的货币体系促进了经济繁荣，而无实物支撑的体系则导致贫富差距和社会问题。这一哲学基础驱动了他对贵金属的关注。
**什么是大宗商品？**
大宗商品是基本的原材料或必需品，例如农产品（玉米、小麦、牲畜）、贵金属（黄金、白银、铂金）、能源资源，以及“软性商品”（棉花、咖啡、糖）。与股票不同，股票如果公司倒闭价值可能归零，而大宗商品本身会保持一定的价值，因为它们是实物必需品。
**如何投资大宗商品：**
摩根为个人投资者概述了几种途径：
1. **期货市场：** 杠杆率高且风险极大，导致99%的业余投资者亏损。除非你是为对冲产出而进行操作的商业生产商，否则这纯粹是“投机”。
2. **ETF（交易所交易基金）：** 一种更便捷的投资方式，因为它们像股票一样交易（例如白银ETF：SLV）。它们无需专门的大宗商品账户，但会产生管理费，且对于较小的大宗商品，买卖价差可能很大。风险包括网络攻击和潜在的管理问题。
3. **实物金属：** 摩根主张购买实物金银币作为个人储蓄的一部分，因为一旦购买，就没有持续的费用。
4. **大宗商品生产公司的股票：** 这是他获取更广泛大宗商品敞口的首选方法。投资像阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰（农业）或矿业公司（金属）这样的公司，提供了一种风险较低的参与方式，既能受益于标的大宗商品的趋势，又能投资于一家拥有资产负债表的成熟企业。他将其比作投资MicroStrategy以间接获得比特币敞口。
**大宗商品的估值与策略：**
摩根介绍了一个出自《你不能亏损交易大宗商品》一书的理念：当大宗商品价格低于其生产成本时买入。例如，如果白银开采成本为每盎司15美元，但交易价格为12美元，那么以12美元买入的投资者实际上就成了一个“更好的白银矿工”。这种策略包括在价格进一步下跌时进行摊低成本的计划，前提是假设该大宗商品最终会回归或超过其生产成本。
**白银的独特之处：**
白银是摩根首选的贵金属，不仅因为其货币历史，还因为它在现代技术（电子产品、5G、医疗应用）中广泛而不可或缺的工业用途。历史上，当黄金和白银都是主要货币时，金银比率远低于现在（约16:1）；如今，由于白银的“非货币化”，该比率约为80:1。摩根认为白银是估值最低的资产类别，并将在未来几年大幅跑赢黄金，可能达到每盎司200美元。
**千禧一代与贵金属：**
摩根将千禧一代对贵金属的缺乏兴趣归因于“教育不足”。他引用了沃伦·巴菲特在1999年（当时白银处于经通胀调整后的历史低点）大量购买白银的案例，以此说明其价值。为了吸引年轻一代，摩根认为白银需要与区块链技术结合，创建由白银支撑的加密货币（如AG.LODE.ONE），以提供实用性和现代可访问性。
**白银重新估值的催化剂：**
机构兴趣（如古根海姆首席投资官将白银列为首选）以及白银投资需求现在超过工业需求的结构性转变是关键催化剂。其较小的市场规模意味着一旦势头建立起来，价格可能会大幅波动。
**对Coin和加密货币的看法：**
摩根对比特币持中立偏乐观态度。他预测政府不会消除比特币，但会通过强制推行央行数字货币（如美联储币FedCoin）来限制其用于大额交易（如抵押贷款、公用事业）。届时，比特币将主要用于较小的私人交易。
**一般投资建议（股票与大宗商品）：**
摩根澄清说，他的“低买”策略特指购买“低于生产成本的大宗商品”。对于股票，他主张购买“最佳价值”股票，并遵循威廉·欧奈尔的原则：购买创新高的股票，因为它们面临的抛售压力较小，且势头更强劲。他建议对赢家加仓、卖掉亏损股、避免对股票进行摊低成本操作，并将投资视为一项有明确规则的业务。他还引用了巴菲特的话，认为“当你不知道自己在做什么时，才会选择分散投资。”
This podcast episode features Robert Leonard of "Millennial Investing" interviewing David Morgan, a renowned analyst in the precious metals industry and publisher of "The Morgan Report." The discussion centers on understanding and investing in commodities, with a particular focus on silver.
Morgan begins by sharing his background, revealing an early interest in money and finance that led him to distinguish between "honest money" (backed by commodities like gold and silver) and "dishonest money" (fiat currency). He argues that throughout history, sound money systems have fostered economic well-being, while unbacked systems lead to wealth disparity and societal problems. This philosophical foundation drives his focus on precious metals.
**What are Commodities?**
Commodities are essential raw materials or needed goods, such as agricultural products (corn, wheat, cattle), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum), energy resources, and "softs" (cotton, coffee, sugar). Unlike stocks, which can go to zero if a company fails, commodities inherently maintain some value because they are physical necessities.
**How to Invest in Commodities:**
Morgan outlines several avenues for individual investors:
1. **Futures Market:** Highly leveraged and extremely risky, leading 99% of amateurs to lose money. It's "rank speculation" unless you are a commercial producer hedging your output.
2. **ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds):** A more accessible way to gain exposure, as they are traded like stocks (e.g., SLV for silver). They bypass the need for a commodities account but incur management fees and can have wide bid-ask spreads for smaller commodities. Risks include cyber-attacks and potential for management issues.
3. **Physical Metals:** Morgan advocates buying physical gold and silver coins for a portion of one's savings, as they have no ongoing fees once purchased.
4. **Equities of Commodity-Producing Companies:** This is his preferred method for broader commodity exposure. Investing in companies like Archer Daniels Midland (for agriculture) or mining companies (for metals) offers a less risky way to participate, benefiting from the underlying commodity's trends while investing in an established business with a balance sheet. He draws a parallel to investing in MicroStrategy for indirect Bitcoin exposure.
**Valuation and Strategy for Commodities:**
Morgan introduces a concept from a book titled "You Can't Lose Trading Commodities": buy a commodity when its price is *below its cost of production*. For example, if silver costs $15/ounce to mine but trades at $12, an investor buying at $12 effectively becomes a "better silver miner." This strategy involves a plan to average down if prices fall further, assuming the commodity will eventually return to or exceed its production cost.
**Why Silver is Special:**
Silver is Morgan's preferred precious metal due not only to its monetary history but also its vast and indispensable industrial uses in modern technology (electronics, 5G, medical applications). Historically, the gold-silver ratio was much lower (around 16:1) when both were primary money; today, it's about 80:1 due to silver's "demonetization." Morgan believes silver is the most undervalued asset class and will significantly outperform gold in the coming years, potentially reaching $200 per ounce.
**Millennials and Precious Metals:**
Morgan attributes millennials' disinterest to "undereducation." He cites Warren Buffett's large silver purchase in 1999 (when silver was at an all-time inflation-adjusted low) as an example of its value. To attract younger generations, Morgan believes silver needs to integrate with blockchain technology, creating silver-backed cryptocurrencies (like AG.LODE.ONE) that offer both utility and modern accessibility.
**Catalyst for Silver's Revaluation:**
Institutional interest (like Guggenheim's CIO naming silver as a top pick) and a structural shift where investment demand for silver now exceeds industrial demand are key catalysts. Its small market size means that when momentum builds, prices can move dramatically.
**Views on Bitcoin and Crypto:**
Morgan is neutral to positive on Bitcoin. He predicts governments won't eliminate Bitcoin but will mitigate its use for major transactions (e.g., mortgages, utilities) by mandating central bank digital currencies (FedCoin). Bitcoin would then primarily serve for smaller, private transactions.
**General Investment Advice (Stocks vs. Commodities):**
Morgan clarifies that his "buy low" strategy applies specifically to *commodities below production cost*. For *stocks*, he advocates buying the "best value" and following William O'Neil's principle: buy stocks making new highs, as they have less selling pressure and greater momentum. He advises adding to winners, selling losers, avoiding averaging down on stocks, and treating investing as a business with clear rules. He also quotes Buffett, suggesting that "diversification is when you don't know what you're doing."
摘要
David Morgan goes through the basics of investing in commodities. David is a widely recognized analyst in the precious metals industry and consults for hedge funds, high net worth investors, mining companies, depositories, and bullion dealers. He is also known as the publisher of The Morgan Report.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
03:37 - What are commodities, and how do you invest in them?
06:33 - How you can invest in commodities through ETFs.
16:59 - When is the "right time to buy"?
25:16 - Why David invests in silver.
29:00 - Why do investors avoid investing in precious metals?
49:50 - How to pick mining stocks.
56:07 - The pros and cons of commodities.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Recommended Book: You Can’t Lose Trading Commodities by Robert Weist.
Recommended Book: The Silver Manifesto by David Morgan.
Recommended Book: Second Chance by David Morgan.
Check out The Morgan Report.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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