MI Rewind: Why and How You SHOULD Invest Your Emergency Fund w/ Chris Kawaja
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摘要
On today’s Millennial Investing Rewind Episode, Robert Leonards chats with Chris Kawaja to learn about why and how he believes you should be investing your emergency fund, using The Ultimate Liquidity Portfolio strategy. Chris is a Stanford and Harvard graduate who worked at Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Associates, which some may recognize as this super investor, and one of my favorite investors, Ray Dalio’s firm. Chris is also a successful entrepreneur, author, and real estate investor.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
03:39 - How money in a high-yield savings account, like an emergency fund, actually lose money over time.
06:45 - Three major finance trends that have altered the investing landscape.
09:22 - What is "The Ultimate Liquidity Portfolio” strategy?
09:22 - How has this strategy performed in the last financial crisis?
20:51 - Is it really necessary to have a mix of stocks and bonds in your portfolio to create wealth?
40:53 - What are the "jobs" money has in one's life?
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Recommended Book: How To Stash That Cash by Chris Kawaja.
Recommended Book: Broke Millennial by Erin Lowry.
Recommended Book: The Richest Man in Babylon by George Clason.
Recommended Book: Broke Millennial Takes On Investing by Erin Lowry.
Recommended Book: Millennial Money by Patrick O’Shaughnessy.
Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
您正在收听TIP。在今天的节目中，我们将重播一些我个人最喜爱的旧节目，原因有几个。首先，每周都有大量新听众加入，他们可能还没有听过这一集。其次，即便您已经收听了一段时间，也有可能错过了这集首次播出时的机会。或者即使您之前听过，这集节目也是值得再学一次的好内容。如果您已经听过这集或者对此不感兴趣，完全可以跳过，没有关系。您可以下周再来收听我们的新节目。这就是我为这段新引言所准备的内容。接下来的一切都将来自这个节目的原始内容。希望大家喜欢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're listening to TIP. On today's show, we're resharing some of the older episodes that are my favorites for a few reasons. One, we get a bunch of new listeners each week, so new listeners may not have heard this episode before. Two, even if you've been listening for a while, you may have missed this episode when it originally came out. Or three, even if you've heard it before, it can be a great episode to learn from again. If you've already heard this episode or you're not interested in hearing it, feel free to just skip it. There's no harm in that. And you can pick up with our new episodes next week. That's all I had for you for this new intro. Everything going forward is going to be from the original episode. I hope you guys enjoy it.
在今天的节目中，我与企业家和投资者克里斯·卡瓦贾进行了一次对谈，了解他为什么以及如何认为你应该使用终极流动性投资组合策略来投资你的应急基金。克里斯毕业于斯坦福大学和哈佛大学，曾在高盛和桥水联合基金工作，后者是超级投资者、我最喜欢的投资者之一瑞·达利欧的公司。克里斯同时也是一位成功的企业家、作家和房地产投资者。在创业、投资和学术领域，克里斯无疑拥有令人印象深刻的背景。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On today's show, I sit down with entrepreneur and investor Chris Khawaja to learn about why and how he believes you should be investing your emergency fund using the ultimate liquidity portfolio strategy. Chris is a Stanford and Harvard graduate who worked at Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Associates, which some of you may recognize as this is super investor and one of my favorite investors, Ray Dalio's firm. Chris is also a successful entrepreneur, author, and real estate investor. Chris definitely has an impressive background in entrepreneurship, investing, and academia.
您将在今天的节目中听到他有多么出色。我非常高兴能分享我们关于他独特投资策略的对话。收听我们节目的许多人都知道需要有一笔应急资金，但大多数专家建议把这笔钱放在家里的床垫下或高收益储蓄账户里，只在紧急情况下使用。然而，Chris 的策略更加激进，他建议反其道而行之，把应急资金投资在市场中。尽管专家都有不同的建议，但我本人对这种策略非常感兴趣，因为我通常也愿意将应急资金投入市场。具体细节就让 Chris 在今天的节目中详细解说吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You'll hear just how brilliant he is throughout the episode today. And I'm very excited to share our conversation on his unique investing strategy. Many people listening to the show know that you need an emergency fund, but most experts recommend you stick that money in a mattress or in a high yield savings account and just leave it there for a rainy day. Chris's strategy is actually more aggressive with your emergency fund money because he recommends you go against what most experts say and actually invest your emergency funds in the markets. I'll let Chris explain this in more detail in today's episode, but it's a concept that fascinates me because I've generally been one that was willing to invest my emergency fund against the recommendations of other experts.
那么事不宜迟，让我们开始本周与Chris Khawaja的精彩对话。您正在收听的是由The Investor's Podcast Network推出的《千禧一代投资》，由主持人Robert Leonard采访成功的企业家、商业领袖和投资者，以帮助千禧一代获取知识和获得灵感。大家好，欢迎收听节目。我是你们的主持人，Robert Leonard。今天和我在一起的是Chris Khawaja。欢迎加入节目，Chris。Chris Khawaja：谢谢Robert，很高兴能参加。今天我们就从讨论一下你的背景以及你是如何达到今天的位置开始吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So without further delay, let's get into this week's fascinating conversation with Chris Khawaja. You're listening to Millennial Investing by The Investor's Podcast Network, where your host, Robert Leonard, interviews successful entrepreneurs, business leaders, and investors to help educate and inspire the millennial generation. Hey, everyone. Welcome to the show. As always, I'm your host, Robert Leonard. And with me today, I have Chris Khawaja. Welcome to the show, Chris. Chris Khawaja. Thanks, Robert. Appreciate you having me on. Let's start the conversation today by talking a bit about your background and how you got to where you are today.
好的。我在加拿大多伦多长大，是两位移民的儿子，其中一位是金融学教授。17岁的时候，我正处于高中倒数第二年，并有可能提前一年毕业。那年2月，我从寒冷冰雪覆盖的加拿大出发，来到了加州，参观了斯坦福大学。加州当时气温是75华氏度，人们穿着泳装，这让我立刻决定了我的未来。因此，我去了斯坦福大学，并实际上提前一年从高中毕业。毕业后，我在华尔街的高盛公司工作了几年，后来又在一家当时还算是初创公司的地方工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay. So I grew up in Toronto, Canada. I was the son of two immigrants, one of whom was a finance professor. And when I was 17, I was in my second last year of high school, but was on track to maybe graduate a year early. And in February of that year, I left minus something temperatures and snow on the ground in Canada, landed in California and visited Stanford, where it was 75 degrees and people were in bikinis, and my future was cemented from there. So I went to Stanford. I actually left high school a year early. I went to Stanford. After Stanford, I worked on Wall Street at Goldman Sachs for a couple of years. Then I worked at a startup. Well, it was a startup then.
现在，我在一家名为Align Technology的大公司工作。他们生产Invisalign隐形牙套。之后，我去了哈佛商学院学习商科。毕业后，我回到了华尔街，在一家名为Bridgewater Associates的对冲基金工作，该基金由Ray Dalio创办。在那之后，我和一群合伙人一起创办了一家创业型公司，我们都是共同所有者。现在，我把时间分配在我的线上业务Big Chill、博客写作，以及房地产和其他投资上。这就是我如何走到今天这一步的，当然这只是浓缩版。一路上也有很多波折，但这些经历让我如今能住在加州北部，离旧金山大约25分钟车程的地方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's now a pretty big company called Align Technology. They make Invisalign. And then I went to business school at Harvard Business School. After that, I went back to Wall Street. I worked at a hedge fund called Bridgewater Associates with Ray Dalio. And after that, I joined a bunch of partners and started to work in more of an entrepreneurial business where we're all co-owners. Now I spend my time split between my online business, which is Big Chill, my blogging, and then my real estate and other investing. So that's where I got to where I am today. And obviously, that's a condensed version. There are a lot of bumps and turns along the way, but that's what's got me here today, where I live in Northern California, about 25 minutes north of the city, San Francisco.
当然，我完全理解你想从多伦多搬到加州以享受那边的好天气。我来自新罕布什尔州，冬天也同样寒冷。所以我非常理解想搬到温暖地方的愿望。绝对是这样。有些地方的魅力会吸引人们前往，然后再也不想回头。我想最终我也会这样考虑。鉴于当前经济形势，今天的讨论应该会非常及时。在这样的情况下，我们经常听到有人建议准备一笔应急基金，我自己也经常这样建议。那么，像应急基金这样放在高收益储蓄账户里的钱，怎么可能随着时间推移而贬值呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, I certainly don't blame you for wanting to make the move from Toronto to California for the weather. I'm a New Hampshire native, so it's similarly cold here in the winter. So I definitely understand the desire to move to where it's warm. Absolutely. Yeah, you know, it sucks some people in and I just never turn back. I think it'll eventually get me too. Given everything that's going on in the economy right now, I think our conversation today is going to be pretty timely. In times like this, we hear a lot of people recommending having an emergency fund, and I even recommend this myself pretty often. How can money in a high-yield savings account, like an emergency fund, actually lose money over time?
所以，这就是关键点。事实上，我们在某种程度上是在自欺欺人。我们认为这些低利率的银行存款是有好处的，比如现在高收益储蓄账户的利率大约是1.5%。但实际上，如果纵观历史，这些利率通常连通货膨胀都赶不上，甚至在税前就已经不行了。更糟糕的是，高收益储蓄账户的收益是按照最高税率征税的。所以，如果你把这些因素加在一起，甚至可以根据某些指数来模拟高收益储蓄账户该有的表现，你会发现高收益储蓄账户实际上是在赔钱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this is the essential point. And it's really, in a way, what we're doing is we're tricking ourselves by thinking that these low bank interest rates, I think right now, high-yield savings are in 1.5%. The fact is, if you look over history, these don't keep up with inflation, usually even before taxes. And what's brutal about high-yield savings accounts is they're taxed at the highest rate. So if you add all of this together and even mock-up equivalents for what high-yield savings accounts should have looked like based on certain indices, you essentially come out at high-yield savings accounts, lose money.
这是一个痛苦的现实，因为人们会说，看，我投入了1万美元，一年后变成了10200美元。但如果你去买东西，之前100美元的商品现在要花103美元，那你实际上是亏了钱。尤其是那200美元的“收益”中，你还得交给政府一些税，可能是75美元甚至100美元。这样一来，你就更亏了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's a painful reality because people say, well, look, I put $10,000 in and I ended up with $10,200 a year later. But if you went to go buy things and everything that costs $100 is now $103, you actually have lost money. Especially after you go and of that $200 you made, quotes made, you had to give some amount to the government, maybe that's $75 or even $100.
罗伯特·伦纳德：我感觉很多人在考虑高收益储蓄账户时，往往不会想到税务问题。我认为在投资社区和券商账户中，这个问题被讨论得很多，但在高收益储蓄账户这一块，却不怎么被提及。你觉得这是为什么呢？我认为部分原因可能是人们认为这是一个很常见的建议：把六个月的生活费放进高收益储蓄账户中作为应急基金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard I feel like a lot of people don't often think about taxes when it comes to their high-yield savings accounts. I think it's talked about a lot in the investing community and in brokerage accounts, but not so much in the high-yield savings account space. Do you think why might that be? So I think part of it is that people assume it's such a default for people to say, look, put six months of money into a high-yield savings account and that's your emergency fund.
我认为，这种观点可能在二十年前是合理的，那时还没有出现ETF（交易所交易基金）、免佣金交易以及其他各类新兴交易方式。因为在当时，这可能是个不错的方式来保护你的资金。随着时间的发展，当某种观点被普遍接受时，就像每天早上起床刷牙一样，大家都觉得理所当然，人们可能就不会去多加质疑了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think that gospel probably was appropriate a couple decades ago before the advent of ETFs and commissions, pre-trading and all these other things. Because it probably was a not terrible way to sort of preserve your money, okay? And I think what's happened is when there's just gospel, if everybody says, hey, you know, you always, everybody always wakes up in the morning and, you know, brushes their teeth. You know, I don't think people are questioning it a lot.
对于那笔钱，人们一直深信不疑，认为有一种正确的方式去管理。只是最近由于ETF和其他很多原因，这种信念才真正受到挑战。我认为，人们之前可能根本没有去深思，因为这是一个无需深思的问题。最好的选择就是把钱存进银行账户，感觉安全，然后继续生活。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so for that bucket of money, there's been such gospel, such a belief in the right way to do it. And it's only recently that that belief really could have been challenged because of ETFs, because of a lot of other reasons. And so I think people just haven't thought about it because it just wasn't something to think about. The best option was just throw it in a bank account that felt safe and move on.
现在，我之前提到过，不同的谬误让我觉得高收益储蓄账户在心理上更有吸引力，而在财务上却不那么有吸引力。这主要是因为人们不喜欢“亏钱”的感觉。所以他们认为银行账户是零风险的。但对我来说，投资的风险在于它不能满足你的目标。比如紧急备用金的情况，就是在紧急情况出现时满足你的需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, there are different fallacies, like I talked about, that I think make high-yield savings even more psychologically attractive and less financially attractive. And that's mainly to do with the fact that people don't like the feeling of, quotes, losing money. So they think that a bank account is zero risk. But to me, the risk of an investment is when it can't meet your goals. So for the case of an emergency fund, that's meeting your needs when an emergency arises.
对于退休基金来说，这很简单，就是它能否提供退休保障。因此，如果你了解目标，就会很快明白，高收益储蓄并不是保留应急资金的最佳途径。有哪些金融领域的三大趋势彻底改变了投资格局，以至于储蓄账户不再是存放现金的最佳选择？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And for the case of a retirement fund, that's very simply, you know, will it provide for retirement? And so if you know the goal, then you very quickly learn that high-yield savings are not the best avenue for preserving your emergency fund. What are the three trends in finance that have radically altered the investing landscape so that savings accounts really just are no longer the best option for stashing cash?
这是个很好的问题。我认为目前最大的趋势是ETF（交易所交易基金）。如果你需要进行简单的投资，我们的投资组合建议大致是88%的中期债券和12%的整体股票市场指数。如果你试图在15或20年前这样做，即使你找到了最便宜的共同基金和最低的投资金额，按照当时的情况，你需要投入至少1万、1.5万、2万或3万美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's a great question. I think the number one trend is ETFs. So if you had to invest, very simply, our portfolio recommends, let's just say high-level, 88% intermediate-term bonds, 12% total stock market index. Now, if you tried to do that, let's say 15, 20 years ago, even if you found, you know, the cheapest mutual funds and the lowest minimums, just by definition, you're going to have to be into it for 10, 15, 20, $30,000.
现在，事实是，大多数人的应急储备金并没有那么多，对吧？所以，第一个趋势是，与其投资共同基金，现在你可以选择交易所交易基金（ETF）。通过ETF，你可以以非常低的费用投资美国股市指数里的所有公司。这样一来，你的最低投资额可能只需要74美元用于股票部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the fact is, most people's emergency funds aren't of that size, right? So the first trend is, instead of mutual funds, you now have ETFs where you can get access to literally every company in the U.S. stock market indices for pennies per year on $1,000 investment. So your minimum investment might only have to be, you know, $74 in a stock portion.
第一点是，从共同基金到交易所交易基金（ETF），进入门槛降低了。第二点，而且这一点非常重要，就是交易佣金大幅下降，现在在很多情况下已经取消了。好吧，银行账户的一个好处是存钱没有手续费。现在ETF也没有了交易佣金，这带来了类似的效果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the first is, the hurdle has gone down as you've gone from mutual funds to ETFs. The second, and this is pretty big, is commissions have been driven down and now, in a lot of cases, have gone away. Okay, so one thing that's nice about a bank account is there's not a commission making investment there. Now that there's no longer commission on ETFs, it has a lot of the same effect.
ETF 是有一些小成本的。这种成本指的是买入价和卖出价之间的差额，但这个差额其实非常小，可能只有几分钱。近年来，从共同基金转向 ETF 的趋势正在增加，并且由于券商行业内如富达、先锋集团、Robinhood 等公司的激烈竞争，佣金费用已被大幅降低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There is a slight cost to an ETF. It's the difference between the bid-ask spread, but we're talking even tens of pennies on a dollar when we're talking about what that cost is. So it's the move from mutual funds to ETFs, the drive down and just this massive competition that's been created by the brokerage industry, you know, Fidelity, Vanguard, Robinhood, you name it, to bring commissions really low.
我认为，投资者现在的投资渠道和使用在线证券交易平台的便利性已经非常高了，现在开户和获得投资渠道非常容易，这在过去是不存在的。至于另一个使我们远离高收益储蓄账户的趋势，就是税收往往在增加。你知道，现在的税率比大约200年前要高很多，那时候几乎没有税收，政府的资金主要来自于很少的税款。总体来说，随着社会努力为人们提供越来越多的服务，税收也在增加，而不幸的是，这些税收往往从经过通货膨胀调整的项目中扣除。因此，像高收益储蓄这样的低回报产品所承受的2%的通货膨胀率，随着时间推移，会逐渐侵蚀你的回报。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then I think just generally, the access that investors have and the ease of use of online brokerages, it's so easy to open an account now and to get this exposure. That just didn't exist before. As far as one other trend that drives us away from high-yield savings accounts, taxes just tend to go up. You know, tax rates now are a lot higher than they probably were, you know, 200 years ago, there weren't really taxes at all. You know, just very few taxes for funding the government. And so I think generally speaking, as society aims to provide more and more for people and taxes go up, that tax tends to be taken out, unfortunately, on inflation-adjusted items. And so the 2% inflation on such a low-returning instrument as high-yield savings, it just eats away your return over time.
你提到了“终极流动性投资组合”和它在不确定时期作为终极投资策略的重要性。我认为我们现在正处于相当不确定的时代，所以这将是一个很有意义的对话。那么首先，什么是终极流动性投资组合策略？它的表现如何？很好，我很喜欢这个投资组合，因为我认为它非常适合应急资金的目标。那么，它是什么呢？其实很简单。虽然你可以尝试实施这个策略，但我要提醒你不要轻举妄动，因为你真的需要相信自己所做的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You write about the ultimate liquidity portfolio and how it's the ultimate investment strategy in uncertain times. And I'd say that we're in pretty uncertain times right now, so I think this is going to be a good conversation to have. So first, what is the ultimate liquidity portfolio strategy and what kind of track record does it have? Great. So I love this portfolio because I think it's very appropriate for what an emergency fund is trying to do. Okay, what is it? It's very simple. And although you could do it, I would caution you not to do it because I think you really need to believe in what you're doing.
人们如果只是听了播客里的某件事，然后在第二天就去实施，可能不会坚持下去。但在表面上，终极的流动性投资组合其实是由88%的中期债券组成的。获取这些债券有很多途径。先锋（Vanguard）有提供此类交易所交易基金（ETF）和共同基金的产品，我们会提到这些。你可以在我的博客上查看或在书中阅读相关内容。另外，还有12%的美国总股票市场指数，比如VTSAX，这是人们常用的，但类似的选择非常多。施瓦布（Schwab）有提供，先锋也有，几乎每家公司都有，而且这些产品的交易费用很低。所以，从很高层次来看，这投资组合就是这样构成的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And people, if they just hear something on a podcast and then implement it the next day, are probably not likely to stay with it. But the ultimate liquidity portfolio, on the surface, is just 88% intermediate-term bonds. And there are a lot of ways to get access to that. Vanguard has ETFs and mutual funds that do that. And we refer to those. You can just read on my blog or refer to the book for what those are. And then 12% of the US total stock market index. Again, VTSAX is a very common one that people use, but there are a dime a dozen out there. Schwab has one. Vanguard has one. Everybody has one. And they have these very low trading fees. So at a very high level, that's what it is.
关于它的构建，很重要的一点是，它实际上是两个不同的资产。在书中，我们讨论了“晴天”和“雨天”，假设你可以创建一个完美的投资组合。假设你有一些鸡，或是一个农场的投资组合，你希望非常稳定地获得最多数量的鸡蛋，即需获得稳定的回报。理想情况下，最好有一只鸡在晴天每天下蛋，另一只鸡在非晴天时每天下蛋。这样，即使你不知道哪天是晴天或雨天，你也知道每天都会有鸡蛋收获。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But as far as the construction of it, it's important that it's really two different assets. And in the book, we talk about rainy and sunny as being, let's say you could create a perfect portfolio. Okay. You have certain chickens or a portfolio for a farm. Let's say you're trying to gather the maximum number of eggs very consistently, right? You need a consistent return. What you'd ideally have is a chicken that lays an egg every day it's sunny, and another chicken lays an egg every day it's not sunny. Then, even though you don't know when it's going to be sunny and rainy, you know every single day you're going to get an egg.
现在，显然，投资世界比这要复杂得多，不存在完全匹配的投资。但是如果你想从历史角度来看，我们的书回顾了过去九十年的情况，研究了一种包括88%中期债券和12%股票的组合。这种中期债券是特定类型的，如果你想查看历史表现，可以查找标记为VGIT的ETF。这种88%中期债券和12%股票的组合有着很出色的过往表现记录。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, obviously, the investment world is a little more complicated than that. And there's no such thing as these perfectly matched investments. But if you want to look historically, and we look back nine decades in our book, this mix of 88% intermediate term bonds, and it's a very specific kind of intermediate term bond. And VGIT is the ticker for the ETF if you just want to look up historical performance. This mix of 88% intermediate term bonds and 12% stocks just has a wonderful track record.
原因是，当经济形势不佳时，债券往往会上涨；而当经济形势良好时，股票则往往会上涨。因此，由于这种比例关系，以及它们在利率周期中的不同表现特征，这为整个经济提供了一个很好的平衡，并且非常稳定。这就是它的基本原理，并且它的设计主要是为了简单。实际上，有一些方法可以获得比88-12比例更高的回报。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the reason is when times are bad, bonds tend to go up, and when times are good, stocks tend to go up. And so because of this ratio, and because they have these different characteristics where they're exposed really in some ways to different moves in the interest rate cycle, which ultimately is driving the economy, it's just a wonderful balance, and it's extremely consistent. So that's what it is. And it's designed mostly to be simple. There are ways to actually get more return than doing 88-12.
你可以加入第三个短期债券基金，并调整你的投资比例。但实际上，我们更多讨论的是如何养成这种行为习惯。知道投资组合是88%和12%的比例是一回事，了解为什么坚持这种组合是另一回事。更进一步，要理解这种组合在每次市场下跌和上涨中的表现，并深入分析和理解这个过程。因为最终，我非常相信的是，投资中对人造成损害的往往是他们的行为。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You could add a third short-term bond fund and change your percentages. But really, a lot of what we talk about is how do we create this behavior? So it's one thing to know it's 88 and 12%. It's another thing to know why you're sticking with it. It's another thing to understand how it performs in every single downturn and in every single upturn and really walk through that and understand it. Because ultimately, and this is something I believe very passionately, the thing that hurts people in their investing is their behavior.
我们都知道“低买高卖”是投资的基本原则，但几乎所有人却在“高买低卖”。也许不是百分之百的人这样做，但至少有98%的人是这样的，这背后是有很好的理由的。这段话的核心是为了抵御投资时的情绪波动，提供一种稳定且持续的收入来源。这种收入在税后多数情况下与高收益储蓄账户相当，但由于股票通常会随时间增长，它还具有增长的潜力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we all know you should buy low and sell high, and yet everybody buys high and sells low. Look, maybe it's only 98% of people, but it's pretty close to everybody, and there are very good reasons why that's true. But this is ultimately an emotional defense against that, and it's there to provide consistency and this ongoing income that really is comparable after tax over most periods to a high-yield savings account, but then has this growth element because stocks do tend to grow over time.
让我们稍事休息，听一听今天的赞助商。如果你和我一样是一名基本面投资者，你需要能够跟上你需求的金融数据。这就是为什么我和我的同事丹尼尔·曼卡在每一期《内在价值播客》中都使用Fiscal AI的原因。Fiscal AI是一家面向全球股票的现代金融数据提供商，我们在节目中经常使用他们的网络终端。它将简洁现代的界面与机构级数据相结合，提供超过20年的财务报表，还有我非常喜欢的公司特定细分和关键绩效指标。如果你想查找Uber的总订单量，这里就有。如果你想查看Caspi的支付量，这里也有。我知道这些信息，因为我们在关于Uber和Caspi的播客中引用了这些数据。值得注意的是，他们刚刚推出了自己的AI连接器。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. If you're a fundamental investor like me, you need financial data that actually keeps up with you. That's why me and my colleague Daniel Manka use Fiscal AI for every episode of the Intrinsic Value Podcast. Fiscal AI is a modern financial data provider for global stocks, and we use their web-based terminal all the time on the show. It pairs a clean, modern interface with institutional-grade data, over 20 years of financial statements, plus company-specific segments and KPIs that I love. Digging into. If you want Uber's gross bookings, it's there. If you want to see Caspi's payment volumes, it's there. And I know because we pulled these metrics for our podcasts on Uber and Caspi, but what's new is that they've just launched their own AI connector.
这意味着你可以将所有这些数据，包括20年的财务报表、收益电话会议记录、基金信函、新闻、文件等，直接上传到Cloud、ChatGPT或其他你用于投资研究的AI平台上。因此，你的AI可以直接使用机构级别的数据来源。如果你需要一个强大的现成股票研究终端，或者一个能给你的AI提供动力的数据连接器，请使用我们的链接fiscal.ai.tivp来享受15%的折扣。再次提醒，链接是fiscal.ai.tivp，你也可以在节目说明中找到。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What that means is you can plug all of that data, 20 years of financials, earnings call transcripts, fund letters, news, filings, and much more directly into Cloud, ChatGPT, or whatever AI you use for investment research. So your AI is working from institutional-quality data straight from the source. Whether you want a powerful out-of-the-box stock research terminal or a data connector to supercharge your AI, use our link fiscal.ai.tivp to get 15% off. Again, that's fiscal.ai.tivp, and you'll find the link in the show notes as well.
大家好，这里有个简短但令人兴奋的消息要分享。 9月19日星期六，Daniel、Kyle和我将在纽约市举办“内在价值会议”。这将是一个整天的活动，包括价值投资演讲、股票推介和小组讨论，地点在曼哈顿中城。这也是我们从9月18日至20日周末“智囊团”社区活动的一部分。我们的智囊团社区成员，包括“核心圈子”和“内在价值智囊团”的成员，都可以免费保留会议名额。除此之外，周五和周六晚上还有私人社区晚餐，周日上午提供早餐。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hey folks, quick but exciting update here. On Saturday, September 19th, Daniel, Kyle, and myself will be hosting the Intrinsic Value Conference, New York City. This will be a full day of value investing talks, stock pitches, and panels in Midtown Manhattan as part of a bigger weekend with our Mastermind community from September 18th through the 20th. Members of our Mastermind community, both the Inner Circle and our Intrinsic Value Mastermind, will have spots reserved at the conference as part of their membership for free, plus private community dinners on Friday and Saturday night, and breakfast on Sunday.
对于其他人，有两种方式可以加入我们。一般入场票可让您全面参与大会，包括Kyle的股票推介演示，以及Daniel和我编制的内在价值投资组合，还有我们将在接下来几周公布的嘉宾演讲。如果您想要完整体验，我们的VIP票务套餐可以让您全天参会，还可以参加我们周六晚与William Green及其他核心圈成员的独家晚宴。您可以在theintrinsicvalueconference.com找到门票和完整议程。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And for everyone else, there's two ways you can join us. A general admission ticket gets you full access to the conference itself, a stock pitch presentation from Kyle and an Intrinsic Value Portfolio with Daniel and me, plus guest speakers that we'll be announcing in the coming weeks. If you want the full experience, our VIP ticket package, that gets you all day conference access, plus a seat at our Saturday night exclusive dinner with William Green and the rest of our Inner Circle community. Find tickets in the full agenda at theintrinsicvalueconference.com.
如果你更愿意作为会员加入我们，并获得会议以及整个周末活动的参与权限，请访问 theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind-application 申请加入内在价值大师班。所有链接都在下面的节目说明中。希望在纽约见到你。好了，回到节目中。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if you'd rather join us as a member and get the conference plus the full weekend included, apply to the Intrinsic Value Mastermind at theinvestorspodcast.com slash mastermind dash application. All the links are in the show notes below. Hope to see you in New York. All right, back to the show.
当我听说有那么多或那么高比例的债券组成的投资组合时，我会怀疑这种策略是否适合年轻一代，比如千禧一代。我们节目中不太推荐债券，而且你也不会听到很多人专门为这种人群讨论这个问题。那么，你认为这种策略对拥有这么多债券的千禧一代来说好吗？绝对是的。让我解释一下为什么这是一种好的策略。我认为我们必须把我们的资金分成三个不同的“桶”。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When I hear about the portfolio consisting of that many or that high of a percentage of bonds, it makes me wonder if that strategy fits towards younger demographics like millennials. You know, I don't tend to recommend bonds here on the show, and you don't hear a lot of people talk about that specifically for this type of demographic. So do you think that that strategy is good for millennials with that many bonds? Absolutely is. And let me explain what I mean by it being a good strategy. I think we have to think of our money in three different buckets, okay?
在我看来，一个常见的错误，尤其是我在千禧一代中常常看到的，就是我在华尔街学到的如何将资金分类的知识，似乎没有在这一代人中普及。因此，我在与年轻人交流时经常谈论这个话题。关键是要把钱当作有任务的东西来思考。简单来说，我们可以把钱分为三个基本任务。第一个任务是退休储蓄。也就是说，在将来的某个时候，你需要一定数量的钱来为你的长期收入提供保障。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And one of the biggest mistakes I see, and I've seen this a lot actually in millennials for whatever reason, is just the education that I received on Wall Street on terms of how to bucket money seems to have not permeated to this generation. So it's something I talk a lot about when I speak with younger people. And that's that you have to think of money as doing a job. And so let's just divide that into three basic jobs just to keep it really simple. The first job is retirement. Okay, retirement is a job where long-term, at some distant point in the future, you're going to need some amount of money that funds you with some income for a long time.
为了这个目的，随着时间的推移，你会建立起大部分的投资组合。股票对于这个目标来说是非常好的选择。不过，我并不建议在退休投资组合中全部配置为股票，主要原因是股票并不总是上涨。有人可能会说，股票最终会在五年、十年后上涨。对此，我的回答是，如果你在1987年或1989年买入日本的股票，到现在仍可能没有回本。所以，对于那些投资期限在33年或更短的人来说，那是个非常糟糕的决定。因此，我不相信100%的投资组合应该是股票，但我相信股票在长期投资组合中仍是非常合适的选择。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For that, and that's ultimately over time where you'll build where most of your portfolio will go. For that job, stocks are great. Now, I wouldn't recommend 100% stocks for that retirement portfolio for the main reason being stocks don't always go up. And people say, well, you know, eventually they will go up after five years, after 10 years. To which my answer is, if you bought stocks in 1987 or 1989 in Japan, you'd still be underwater. So for anyone who had an investment horizon that was 33 years or less, that was a really bad idea. So I don't believe in 100% stocks, but I believe that stocks are very appropriate for that long-term portfolio.
随着时间的推移，股票的表现通常比通货膨胀高出六到七个百分点，而这种投资组合通常比通货膨胀高出三个百分点，而短期证券和高收益储蓄的表现则通常与通货膨胀持平。这就是三种类型的投资。现在，另一个非常简单的类型就是你的银行账户，也就是支票账户，用来支付账单。它的作用是什么？就是用来支付每月的账单。这个很简单，对吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because over time, stocks tend to perform about six to seven points above inflation, whereas this portfolio tends to perform about three points above inflation versus short-term securities and high-yield savings, which tends to be at inflation. So those are the three categories. Now, the other category, which is really easy, is your bank account, your checking account, just to pay your bills, right? What's the job of that? To pay your monthly bills. Real easy, okay.
有一个中间的"桶"，它非常重要。原因是，你需要用不同的思维来考虑，这个"桶"的任务是什么？这个"桶"的任务是，在扣税后保持你放入其中的资产的价值。而且，你希望它能以最高的频率做到这一点。这个投资组合就是为此而设计的，结果显示，在三年的时间里，如果这就是你的应急基金，你在股票上亏损的可能性比在这个投资组合上亏损的可能性要大得多。它的表现非常稳定。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There's this middle bucket, and it's extremely important. And the reason it's extremely important is, and you have to think about it differently, what is the job of this bucket? The job of this bucket is to preserve the value of what you put in there after taxes. And you want it to do that at the highest possible frequency. And so this portfolio was designed, and the results show that over a three-year period, if this is your emergency fund, you have a much greater chance of losing money in stocks than you do in this. It's just extremely consistent.
所以我的建议是去投资股票吗？当然可以，尤其是作为你退休投资组合的一部分。但在你的投资策略中，最先要做的事情是显而易见的，那就是确保你有足够的钱来支付日常开支。接下来，我会建议你优先偿还高利息债务。在你开始投资退休组合之前，最先应该投资的是建立一个应急基金。所以，我会说，毫无疑问，所有的千禧一代都应该有这样的计划，他们应该为自己建立一个应急基金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So is my advice, go invest in stocks? Sure, for the retirement part of your portfolio. But the very first thing you should be doing in your investing strategy, obviously, after having enough money to pay your bills, the second thing I'd say is probably paying off high-interest debt. But the first money you invest should be in an emergency fund before you've actually invested in your retirement portfolio. And so I'd say, yes, absolutely. All millennials should have this, and they should have it for their emergency fund.
一旦你积累了足够的紧急资金，那就很好了。请把所有的钱投入到你的退休储蓄中。这其中绝大部分应该是股票。我有一些想法，认为不应该100%都是股票，我们之前讨论过这些。但没错，这样做是合适的。因为这样做的目的是为了尽可能保值。这和退休基金不一样，退休基金的目标是最大化长期增长。因此，可以选择波动性较大的投资。这些投资非常不错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Once you have enough of an emergency fund, great. Please pour all your money into your retirement. And that's going to be the vast majority of stocks. I have some ideas on how it shouldn't be 100% stocks that we discussed. But yes, absolutely, it's appropriate. Because look, you're having it to maximize your chance of preserving value of money. It's not like a retirement fund, which is maximizing the long-term growth. And for that, go ahead with volatile investments. Those are great.
实际上，当经济形势不佳时，对你来说反而是好事，因为每次投资时，你都能购买更多的股票。所以，我认为问题在于，对于这笔资金来说，能否合理分配是非常重要的。千禧一代最大的错误是什么呢？就是没有把钱分在不同的“桶”里。他们把所有的钱混在一起，结果就会感到困惑，不知道哪个部分属于哪里。然后你可能会想，我是不是应该投资债券？我认为，只要你了解自己的工作，就应该知道如何进行投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And in fact, when times are bad, it's great for you because you're buying more shares every time you invest. So I think the question is, yes, it's very appropriate for that bucket of money. What's the biggest mistake millennials make? Not putting money in different buckets. They slosh everything together. And then you get confused, and you don't know what portion is which. And you say, well, should I have bonds? And I think if you know the job, you know how you should invest.
是的，你需要一个应急资金，而它的作用是保值。这是我所知道的最好的办法。你提到在投资之前了解策略的历史回报很重要。那么，当我们谈论终极流动性投资组合时，它现在的表现如何？在过去十年中，当我们经历了一个强劲的牛市时，它的表现又如何？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And yes, you need an emergency fund, and the job of that is to preserve capital. This is the best way I know how to do it. You talked about it being important to understand the historical returns of a strategy before investing in it. So when we talk about the ultimate liquidity portfolio, how is it performing right now? And then how did it perform over the last decade when we had such a strong bull market?
我猜想在过去的十年中，由于强劲的牛市，一个有88%债券的投资组合可能被广泛的股票市场指数打败了。它的表现如何呢？所以从90年的时间段来看，我知道这似乎很长，我关注90年的原因是因为这期间有各种类型的市场。在这90年里，它的表现比通胀高出不到3%。而在过去的40年里，它的表现比通胀高出稍多于3%。这种表现相对一致。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I would assume that over the last decade, through the strong bull market, that a portfolio with 88% bonds probably got crushed by the broad stock market index. How has it performed? So over a 90-year period, and I know that feels super long, and the reason I look at 90 years is because there are markets of all stripes. Over a 90-year period, it's a little less than 3% over inflation. Over the last, let's say, 40 years, it's a little more than 3% over inflation. And it's pretty consistent.
在过去十年中它的表现如何？实际上，过去十年对股票和债券来说表现都相当不错。所以它的表现大致与此相符。我手头没有具体的年度业绩记录，但你可以在 Portfolio Visualizer 上查看任何你感兴趣的时期，结果都很一致。我认为，比这更重要的是看看它在危机时期的表现，好吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
How has it performed in the last decade? Well, the last decade has actually been pretty good for stocks and bonds. So it's performed pretty much in line with that. I don't have my exact annual performance notes in front of me, but you can just look back on Portfolio Visualizer and pick any period that you're interested in and see it's very consistent. I think more important than that is look at how it's performed in times of crisis, okay?
因为首先，这个设计的目的是为了保值你的资金。今年的表现如何呢？今年是有增长的。虽然我不知道今天具体的数据，但肯定上涨了几个百分点。这是一个大致符合平均水平甚至略高于平均水平的年份，因为债券表现非常好。这是第一点。第二点是，当你看到不好的新闻时，它仍然能表现出色。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because the first thing is, this is designed to preserve your money. How is it done this year? It's up this year. I don't know what it is as of today, but certainly a few percentage points. It's about an average year to a slightly better than average year just because bonds have done super well. So that's the first thing. The second thing is, it does well when you're reading bad headlines.
为什么这很重要？因为尽管人们常说他们想投资股票，但一个最大的误区是，人们往往看到一个指数基金就以为自己的收益会和它一样。但无数研究（你可以在网上查找，会找到数百条相关信息）显示，股市上的普通投资者——每个人都觉得自己比平均水平更好——通常要比股市的平均表现低2到5个百分点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Why is that important? Because although people say, hey, I want to invest in stocks, the biggest fallacy is that people look at an index fund and assume that that's what the performance that they're going to get. But study after study after study, and you can just look this up online and you'll get hundreds of hits, show that the average investor in the stock market, and everyone thinks they're better than average, but the average investor in the stock market underperforms the stock market by between two and five points.
我们讨论过股票市场的表现，比如说，高出通货膨胀六到七个百分点。我们还讨论过另一个方面，高出通货膨胀三个百分点。如果你再减去两到五个百分点，实际上，普通投资者获得的不是股票的回报，而是带有所有波动性的公司债券的回报。我认为你的节目在教育人们如何避免这种情况方面做得非常好。但我可以告诉你，我认识的一些最聪明的人——我是说那些百万富翁，他们原本有计划在下一个经济低迷时怎么做——这些人在市场崩盘时卖出了，他们在市场价格比我们以前见过的都要低的时候卖出了。我意识到人们相信自己会以某种方式行事，但实际上却并非如此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we talked about the stock market being, let's say, six to seven points above inflation. We talked about this as being three points above inflation. If you subtract two to five points, really, the average investor is getting not the returns of stocks, but the returns of corporate bonds with all of the volatility that comes along with it. And I think your show does a really good job at educating people on how they can avoid that. But I can tell you that some of the very smartest people I know, I'm talking guys, millionaires, guys who had plans on what they were going to do in the next downturn, these guys sold when the market crashed. They were selling in March when things were cheaper than we've ever seen. So I recognize that people believe they're going to behave a certain way, but in practice, they don't.
我认为其中一部分原因是情感上的，另一部分是结构上的原因。你看，当你失去工作时，你往往会减少投资金额，对吧？所以从结构上来说，有一些原因让你很难像在看指数基金时那样获得那些结果。你认为这种策略有多少受到你在雷·达里奥的公司——桥水联合基金的工作经历的影响？我会说很大一部分策略是受到这些经历的启发的，可以说某些方面是对许多他原则的深度简化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think part of it is emotional and part of it is just structural. Look, when you lose your job, you tend to cut your investing amounts, right? So there are just some structural reasons why it's hard to get those kinds of results that you see about when you just look at an index fund. How much of this strategy do you think has been shaped by your time that you spent with Ray Dalio at his firm, Bridgewater Associates? I would say a lot of the strategy is informed by it. It's probably in some ways a very deep simplification of many of his principles.
雷可能自己不会这么说，但从他的行为来看，他大概会建议大家不要对股票过分迷恋。大家的投资组合可能在股票上的比例过高。而当经济下行时，我们就能感受到其中的风险。因此，雷总是说他的目标和梦想是找到20到40种不相关的投资。股票的问题在于它们的相关性很高。股票市场往往是同步上涨和同步下跌，虽然不同股票之间会有些微差别。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The one thing Ray, and I don't think he would say this if you interviewed him, but if you look behind what he's doing, probably his advice would sound something like everybody's a little bit too in love with stocks. And everybody's a little too overexposed to stocks. And we feel that when we enter a downturn. And so Ray always said his goal and his dream was to find, I think he said, 20 to 40 uncorrelated investments. And the thing about stocks is stocks are highly correlated. You know, stock markets tend to go up in sync and they tend to go down in sync. There's a little bit of difference between this and that.
在股市不景气的年份，由于各种原因，大多数股票表现都不好。因此，人们可能对股票过于迷恋。而我认为，Ray教会了我几件事情。首先就是寻找不相关事物的价值。对我而言，这一点在我的终极流动性投资组合中有所体现，但更多体现在我的整体投资策略上。比如，我在房地产方面的投资彼此之间联系不大。我在不同地区和不同行业进行投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But in a bad year for the stock market, it tends to be bad for most stocks for a bunch of reasons. And so people are a little bit too in love with stocks. And what Ray, I think, taught me, I'd say a couple of things. The first is this value of seeking things that don't correlate with each other. And for me, a little bit of that is expressed in the ultimate liquidity portfolio. But a lot of it is expressed in just how I invest everywhere. You know, my real estate investments are highly uncorrelated with each other. I invest in different regions. I invest with different industries.
同样地，在我个人的投资中，我有石油分红权益，也有法律和解投资。总之，几乎你能想到的领域我都有投资。只要是在扣除通货膨胀后收益高且与其他投资不相关的，我都感兴趣。而且，你知道，有些人认为这类投资有一些所谓的缺点，但我觉得这其实是优点。有人说，这些投资不够流动，但我认为，流动性正是股市上不良行为的原因。比如，当出售房地产投资需要付出6%的成本时，你多半会坚持持有下去。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Likewise, in my personal investing, I have oil royalties. I have legal settlements that I'm invested in. I mean, you name it, I'm probably invested in it. If it has a high after inflation return and is uncorrelated, I'm interested. And, you know, there are a couple disadvantages to being in those quotes disadvantages that I happen to think are advantages. And that's people say, well, it's not liquid. Well, I would tell you that liquidity is the reason for bad behavior in the stock market. When it costs you 6% to sell your real estate investment, chances are you're going to hang in there.
首先，强调非相关性的投资。这是我自从与雷（Ray）共事以来就一直努力追求的目标。我认为这是他的一个极具价值的洞见。其次，是关于名义收益的错误观念。在投资中存在许多误区，其中我特别强调的一点就是，人们对收益的重视程度往往低于对损失的感受。据一些图表显示，有数据估计表明，失去1美元或5美元带来的痛苦是赚到5美元的两倍半。这实际上是不合逻辑的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the first thing is uncorrelated investments. And I really have pursued that with vigor ever since I worked with Ray. I think it's a great insight that he has on that. The second is this fallacy of nominal return. And there are several fallacies in investing. And one of the ones I really harp on is that everybody values gains less than they feel paying for losses. There are, in fact, charts that show there's an estimate that says, you know, losing a dollar or losing $5 is two and a half times as painful as gaining $5 for people. So this is totally illogical.
但这也是高收益储蓄账户存在的原因。就像人们走进赌场，看到各种游戏，然后有人告诉你，在这个游戏里，无论如何你都不会输钱。但他们没告诉你的是，当你离开赌场时，你的100美元变成了102美元，但在出口时保安收走了1美元。而当你出来后，发现所有东西的价格都变成了103美元。所以之前是100美元，但不输钱的感觉仍然很好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But it's also the reason high yield savings accounts exist. Because it's like people walk into a casino and there are a bunch of games and somebody says, well, in this game, no matter what, you're not going to lose money. And what they don't tell you is that you walk out and when you walk out of the casino, yeah, your $100 became $102 and a bouncer hit you up for a buck on the way. And when you came outside, everything was $103. So it was $100 before. But it feels really good not to lose money.
我认为这句话的核心意思是，重要的是用钱能买到什么。假设我们有一个应急基金是为了在冰箱坏了的时候买新的冰箱，冰箱的价格从500美元涨到525美元，而你的应急基金并没有增长，这就等于你实际上亏了钱。因此，人们需要不断地“喂饱”这个应急基金。此外，很多人只关注名义上的税前收益，而实际上应该关注税后实际收益。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think this just really hammering in, what matters is what you can buy with the money. If the idea of an emergency fund is, let's say, a fridge breaks and I need to go buy a fridge and a fridge goes from 500 bucks to 525 bucks in a time when your emergency fund didn't grow, you've lost money. So there's this idea that you have to keep feeding the monster. So I think the fact that nominal returns, everybody weighs nominal pre-tax returns against each other. And they're really scared of nominal losses. But you really have to look at the after-tax real return on money.
尽可能地，我会寻找数据，但这些数据往往很难找到。你会在我的书里看到，我经常要加上免责声明，说在某些情况下，我不得不使用名义值，因为真实值太复杂或被扭曲了。然而，了解实际收益率是非常重要的，因为这才是最关键的。关键不在于你账户里有多少美元，而在于你能否在紧急情况下得到足够的保障。这是我从他那里学到的两点，最重要的两点。另外，说实话，把一切都分解到最基本的概念。当面对自己犯下的错误时，不要害怕。这种痛苦就是你成长的地方。我认为他对此深信不疑，甚至到了极端的程度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so wherever possible, and the data is hard to find. And you'll see in my book that I'm constantly caveating and saying, look, in this case, I had to use nominal. Real was complicated or got distorted. But it's really important to understand what the real return is. Because that's all that matters. It doesn't matter that you have the same number of dollars in your account. What matters is, were you able to do the job that that was required to do, which is cover you in an emergency? So those are the two things I learned from him, the two biggest things. Also, honestly, just break everything down to its base concepts. And then don't be afraid to face the pain of what you've done wrong, because that's where you grow. Pain is really where the growth is. And I think he believes that to a very extreme extent.
这段话可以翻译为：
"这可能很难接受，但一旦我接受了经常犯错并从中学习的事实，我的学习速度就加快了。对于这种终极流动性投资组合，你认为投资者需要注意哪些主要风险？任何经过回测并具有理论支持的策略，最大风险在于世界可能发生了根本性的变化，从而导致结构性的改变。另外，明显的是，这种投资组合的一个特点就是表现往往受到债券的影响。"
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it can be hard to swallow, but it accelerated my learning once I accepted that I had to be wrong a lot of the time and learn from those mistakes. With this ultimate liquidity portfolio, what do you see as some of the major risks of this strategy that investors should be aware of? So the biggest risk with anything that gets backtested and has all this theoretical support is that maybe the world has changed in some fundamental way that just structurally changes. And one characteristic that's just an element of the portfolio is, obviously, the performance tends to get driven by bonds.
我们讨论了一个90年的周期。在最初的40年里，利率上升，债券的表现不太好。这就是为什么你会看到稍低的收益，大约是2%左右的回报率，而不是大约3.25%的回报率，这是因为债券利率一直在下降。我认为目前的风险在于债券的利率非常低。这其中有很多原因可以探讨。而且，当七年期债券收益率只有0.5%时，投资组合还没有经过考验。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so we talked about a 90-year period. And really, in the first 40 years, interest rates were going up and bonds didn't do very well. And that's why you have that slightly lower performance, more of a 2%-ish return versus, you know, or let's call it 2% plus or minus versus 3.25% plus or minus since bonds have been having decreasing interest rates. So I think what the risk is right now is bonds are at really extremely low interest rates right now. And there are a lot of reasons for that we can go into. And the portfolio has never been tested when the seven-year bond yield is 0.5%.
我认为，这可能的影响是，顺便说一句，低收益率在多方面对股票有利。首先，它让股票在看股息时更具竞争力；其次，它往往会降低公司借贷成本。因此，低利率在一定程度上对投资组合的其他部分是有利的。但我认为未来可能会出现的情况是，未来的回报率可能不会再像现在这样超过通胀3%以上。我仍然认为它是很好的价值保值工具吗？当然。只不过，我认为增长因素和债券的回报率可能会带来一些问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Most likely, what I think it does, and by the way, low yields help stocks in a number of ways. One is it makes them more competitive when you're looking at dividends. But the other is it tends to drive the borrowing costs of companies down. So there are some advantages to having these low rates that will transfer to the other part of your portfolio. But what I believe may happen in the future is that future returns may not be beating inflation by this same three plus percent. Do I still think it's a great preserver of value? Absolutely. I think that the growth element, the return on the bonds may create a bit of an issue.
那么，最大的风险是什么呢？和任何对历史的回顾一样，这是相同的风险。就像人们看待美国股票时常说，股票总是上涨的。但世界是会变化的，我对此保持警觉。如果我真的觉得有某些事情挑战了基本的观念，也许我会发一些新的看法，不过过去90年来这一观念运行得都还不错，所以我并不急于去改变它。不过，如果非要说有什么让我关注的事情，那就是——我并不是特别担心——负利率环境是否可能以某种方式影响市场，而这种影响是过去90年无法捕捉到的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what's the biggest risk? It's the same risk it is with any historical look at things. And, you know, just like people look at US stocks and say stocks have always gone up. You know, the world can change. And I'm mindful of that change. And, you know, once I really feel like there's something that challenges the basic notions, maybe I'll post something else, but it's worked pretty well for 90 years. So I'm not rushing to change it. But if I had to say one thing, and I'm not super worried about it, that would be the one thing I have my eye on, is does this possibly a negative interest rate environment somehow impact things in a way that the past 90 years just can't capture?
让我们稍作休息，听听今天的赞助商。嘿，嘿，在我们回到节目之前，有个小提醒。如果您一直在收听内在价值播客，我想告诉您新剧集的最佳获取方式。内在价值播客已经合并到投资者播客的主频道中，这个频道之前叫做“我们研究亿万富翁”。每周，Daniel Manka、Kyle Greve 和我都会为我们的内在价值投资组合分析具体企业，就像我们在这个播客频道上做的一样，不过这些剧集会提前四天发布。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Hey, hey, quick note before we get back to the episode. If you have been with the Intrinsic Value Podcast for a while, I wanted to let you know where the best place to find new episodes is. The Intrinsic Value Podcast has merged into the main feed for the Investors Podcast, formerly known as We Study Billionaires. Every week, Daniel Manka, Kyle Greve, and I break down individual businesses for our Intrinsic Value Portfolio, just like we do on this podcast feed, except the episodes are published four days earlier.
没错。如果你想第一时间收听我们的股票分析，请在Apple Podcasts、Spotify或者你使用的其他平台上搜索"The Investor's Podcast"。找到我们之后，点击“关注”，这样你就不会错过任何内容。在下面的描述中你也能找到The Investor's Podcast的链接。或许这听起来有些老套，但只要工具得当，建立一个超越市场表现的投资组合，其实并不是什么难题。如果你已经听过我们的播客一段时间，你就会知道我们花费大量时间向精明的投资者学习。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's right. If you want to listen to our stock breakdowns when they first go out, go ahead and search for The Investor's Podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you're listening, you'll find us. Hit follow and you won't miss anything. You'll also find the link to The Investor's Podcast feed in the description below. Not to be cliche, but building a market-beating portfolio really doesn't have to be a mystery, at least with the right tools. If you've listened to our podcast for a while, then you know we spend a lot of time learning from savvy investors.
为什么不使用我们正在使用的工具呢？通过TIP Finance，你可以这样做。筛选优秀公司、计算内在价值、关注传奇投资者的投资组合等，这些都不仅可能，而且很容易实现。TIP Finance是由投资者为投资者创建的。这些工具是在我们调查投资时希望自己能够使用的，界面简单易用。你可以免费创建一个账号开始使用。谁知道呢？也许TIP Finance会帮助你找到下一个100倍的投资机会。从筛选器到传奇投资组合参考，我从TIP Finance中获得了大量灵感。你还在等什么？今天就用正确的工具开始你的投资旅程。拿起你的设备，在浏览器中输入：theinvestorspodcast.com/TIP-finance开始吧。网址是：theinvestorspodcast.com/TIP-finance。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So why not use the same tools we do? With TIP Finance, you can. Screening for great companies, calculating intrinsic value, keeping up with legendary investors' portfolios, and more are all not just possible, but easy to do. TIP Finance was created by investors for investors. It's quite literally the tools we wanted to use ourselves when researching investments in a simple-to-use interface. You can get started by creating an account for free. Who knows? Maybe TIP Finance will help you find your next 100-to-1 investment. Between the Screener and Legend Investment Portfolios to reference, I've gotten a ton of ideas from TIP Finance. What are you waiting for? Take the next step in your investment journey today with the right tools at your fingertips. Grab your device and type into your browser, theinvestorspodcast.com slash TIP-finance to get started. That's theinvestorspodcast.com slash TIP-finance.
好的，回到节目。对于这个投资组合，假设未来十年我们看到利率回升，你觉得会表现如何？目前我们处在一个你所说的历史低利率环境中，利率还有可能进一步下降，甚至像世界其他地方那样变成负利率。但如果这种情况没有发生，而利率开始上升呢？对于这样一个在债券方面暴露较高的投资组合，你觉得会有什么影响？
有两个方面。首先，我想评论一下历史，对于任何投资者，我建议他们成为历史和金融史的学生。我在书中提供了一些例子，但确实，成为历史的学生是很重要的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, back to the show. How do you see this portfolio performing over the next, say, decade if we see a reversion to higher interest rates? I mean, right now we're in, like you've said, a historically low interest rate environment and they could go further. They could go potentially negative like you're seeing in other parts of the world. But what if that doesn't happen? And what if the interest rates start to climb back up? How do you see that impacting a portfolio like this with such a high exposure to bonds? So two things. The first is just a comment on history and anybody who's investing, I recommend they become a student of history and of financial history. And I go through some examples in my book, but really it's important to become a student of history.
你会注意到，没有人真正逃离过低利率的困境，因为这是一个不久前才出现的现象。实际上，我们只有大约33年的经验。日本从未摆脱低利率困境。美国也确实没能逃脱低利率的影响。因此，我想说的是，人们通常认为利率会像过去那样回到3%、5%或6%的水平。但我想告诉你的是，证据表明，利率似乎有某种程度的“锚定效应”，要让利率回升非常困难。当然，我不是说利率不会略有上升，但如果你看看美联储的加息尝试——如果我没记错的话，是在2018年12月，他们把利率提高了大约25或50个基点，不久后又不得不把它降下来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One thing you'll notice is that nobody has ever really escaped because this is a recent phenomenon. It really, we have about 33 years of experience. Japan has never escaped low interest rates. We certainly, the US, have not managed to escape low interest rates. So one of the things I'd say is people assume that just because interest rates have historically been, you know, three, five, six percent, that they'll go back there. What I would tell you is that the evidence is there's somewhat of an anchor and it seems really, really hard to get interest rates back up. Okay, I'm not saying they won't go up a little bit, but if you look, the Fed's attempt to raise rates, I think it was December 2018, if I'm getting my dates correct, they raised rates about 25 or 50 basis points and they had to come right back down and cut it again.
所以我觉得实际上提高利率是很困难的。这是第一点。你看，收益率曲线表明未来十年利率不会上升。当然，也有可能这是错误的。如果利率真的上升，有两件事会发生。是的，你的债券价值会下降，这是一定的。但还有另一件事会发生。如果我们今天以10%的利率发行债券，你就会获得一个10%的票息，这将增加你的收益。所以一个抵消因素，也正是为什么债券能为投资组合增加稳定性的原因，就是你将收到更高的票息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think it's just really hard in practice to raise interest rates. So that's the first thing. So look, the yield curve is telling you that interest rates are not going up in the next 10 years. Now, it could be that it's wrong. If they do go up, remember, two things happen. Yes, the value of your bonds goes down. That absolutely does happen. But a second thing happens. If we were to issue bonds at 10% today, you would be getting a 10% coupon, which would go towards your return. So an offsetting fact, and this is why bonds add so much stability to the portfolio, an offsetting feature is that you'd be collecting bigger coupons.
所以，如果利率上升到4%或5%，你在这部分投资组合中会获得4%到5%的利率收益。不过，这不算是很大的安慰，因为债券不会像股票那样暴跌50%。债券发生大幅下跌是很少见的，一般只是出现调整，而股票则更容易出现崩盘。如果我要做个预测，我觉得我们可能会处于通胀加上几个百分点的范围，而不是通胀加上三四个点。但真正的问题是，投资组合能否更好地保值，优于全股票或全债券的组合，或者优于高收益储蓄账户。我相当有信心，它会在任何给定的一个月、三个月、一年或三年期间做到这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if interest rates went to 4% or 5%, you'd be getting a 4% to 5% interest rate on that part of your portfolio. So again, it's not a huge consolation, but bonds, they're not going to crash 50%. That's just a very hard thing for bonds to do. They've never done that. Bonds tend to have corrections. Stocks tend to have crashes. So yeah. So look, if I had to forecast it, my best guess is we're going to be more in the inflation plus a couple percent range, not inflation plus three or four. But really, you never know. The key here is, will it preserve value better than a portfolio of all stocks? Will it preserve value even than a portfolio of all bonds? Will it preserve value better than a high-yield savings account? I'm pretty confident that it will do that, whether that's for any given one-month period, three-month period, one-year period, or three-year period.
是否有方法可以进一步优化这个投资组合以增加收益？如果有，具体有哪些方法？以及为什么有些人可能不愿意这样做？ 这是个很好的问题。我猜想你可能读过我的书，因为我在书中对此进行了很多讨论。如果没有，你可能参加过我的视频课程。这里的挑战在于，投资中我们最大的敌人是自己。我知道你听过很多人谈论过这个话题，我们最大的敌人就是想要采取行动的欲望，对吧？我们想要频繁交易，使事情变得更复杂等等。所以答案是肯定的，有很多方法可以提高这个投资组合的表现。不过，我会建议绝大多数人保持简单，因为这样会带来最大的收益。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Are there ways to further optimize this portfolio to increase returns? If so, what are they? And what are some of the reasons that someone might not want to do that? Beautiful question. I'm guessing you may have read my book because I talk about this a lot. And if not, you maybe have taken my video course. The challenge here is that our biggest enemy in investing, and I know you've had lots of people talk about this, our biggest enemy is our desire to do something, right? Our desire to really churn things, make things more complicated, et cetera. So the answer is yes, there are many ways to improve the performance of this portfolio. But the vast majority of the benefit, and what I'd recommend to the vast majority of people, is just keep it simple.
简单来说，这个投资组合看起来像是由88%的中期债券和12%的总股票市场指数构成，投资于先锋证券，并每年重新平衡一次。有几种方法可以改善这个投资组合。我认为最有趣和最适用的一种方法是进行税损收割，因为这不仅适用于此。最简单的做法是在重新平衡时进行。假设你在2020年7月1日开始建立你的应急基金，我在书中建议你设定一个日期，比如2021年6月25日，也就是不到一年的时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And simple really just looks like 88% intermediate bonds, 12% total stock market index invested in the Vanguard securities rebalanced once a year. There are a couple of ways to improve the portfolio. The one that I think is most interesting and most applicable, because this doesn't just apply to this, is to harvest tax losses. The easiest thing to do is when you rebalance. So let's say you started your emergency fund on July 1st, 2020. What I say in the book is you should set a date for, let's call it June 25th of 2021, a little less than a year ahead of time.
你为什么这样做？因为如果你投资组合中的一部分价值下降了，你可以卖掉这些股票。这样，你实际上可以获得一个税损失。你可以将这一损失作为普通亏损抵扣普通收入，而不是作为长期亏损，这样税率会更低。所以，你希望亏损按照较高的税率来计算，收益则按照较低的税率来计算。基本上，你可以以较低的税率实现收益，并让收益按较低的税率纳税，同时亏损或税收优惠则按较高的税率计算。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Why do you do that? Because if a portion of your portfolio went down, then you sell those shares. You actually capture a tax loss. And you can capture that as an ordinary loss against your ordinary income versus as a long-term loss, which is going to be at a lower rate. So you want losses at a high rate and gains at a low rate. Essentially, what you can do is capture your gains at a lower rate and have your gains taxed at a lower rate and have your losses taxed or the tax benefit at a higher rate.
这样翻译：所以，这里有一个我称之为税收套利的操作。这个方法的妙处在于，我们使用ETF（交易所交易基金），可以通过类似的证券进行交易，而且不会减少你的投资敞口。你可以在第360天卖出某个产品，然后在同一天购买一个非常相似的产品。然后30天后，你可以再换回来，这样就不会触发洗售规则。我不知道你是否熟悉洗售规则，它指的是如果你在卖出时产生了损失，并且在30天内买回该证券，那么你不能在税务中记录这个损失。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So one is what I would call this tax arbitrage. And what's cool about it, because we're using ETFs, is you can do it through, you're essentially trading like securities and not reduce your exposure at all. So you can sell on day 360 and buy something very similar on day 360. And then 30 days later, you can switch back without avoiding these wash sales. I don't know if you're familiar with the wash sale rule, but it's if you take a loss and then buy the security back within 30 days, you're not eligible for recording that loss on your taxes.
这是一种非常好的方法，因为它涉及ETF。当你卖出一些东西时，可以简单地买入一个非常相似的ETF，这样就没有洗售规则，从而实现很大的税收节省。那么这些税收优惠具体怎么运作呢？这要视具体年份而定。好消息是，在经济状况非常糟糕的年份，这种税收优势会更大。 所以当人们倾向于做一些事情，比如卖出时，我建议说，嘿，不要急着卖掉东西，只需重新平衡投资组合，并利用税收亏损带来的好处。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This is a really cool way because it's ETFs. You can just buy a very similar ETF when you sell things and you don't have a wash sale rule, which is a really big tax saving. So what do those tax things do? Look, it depends on the year. The good news is in really terrible years, that tax advantage is much bigger. So when people are inclined to do something, namely sell, the one thing they can do, I say, hey, don't go out and sell things, just rebalance and take advantage of tax losses.
这些就是一些简单的方法。还有其他方法，涉及到更深奥和复杂的动态。我是说，有三个ETF投资组合表现稍好一些。当然，在三个ETF之间进行再平衡和管理本身就比较复杂。我常问大家，你难道不希望这些事情能够自动化处理吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So those are a couple of easy ways. There are other tweaks you can do that get into the more esoteric and complicated dynamic. I mean, one thing is there are three ETF portfolios that perform slightly better. Again, rebalancing between three ETFs, managing three ETFs, that's its own complexity. And I ask people, you know, don't you just want this on automatic pilot?
另一点，这很微妙，当你添加第三个项目，即第三只ETF时，你的投资组合与股市的相关性会增加。这意味着当新闻头条不佳时，你的投资组合更容易下跌。我之前提到过，这个投资组合的一个重要部分是养成正确的行为习惯。为了养成这样的行为习惯，你希望在阅读股市不好的新闻时，投资组合能够保持中立，甚至可能有好的表现，因为这样可以在情绪上帮助你保持冷静。这非常重要，因为通常情况下，当你最紧张的时候，比如刚失去工作，你会动用你的应急基金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The other thing, and this is a very subtle thing, when you add that third item, that third ETF, you become more correlated with the stock market. So that means that your portfolio is going down more often when the headlines are bad. And a big part of this portfolio, again, I mentioned it, is getting the right behaviors. To get the right behaviors, you want things that are really kind of neutral when you're reading the bad stock market headlines and possibly even good, because it just has this emotional benefit to keep you calm, which is really important because often you're tapping into your emergency fund when you're most nervous because you just lost your job.
所以，我认为情绪稳定性，这种情感方面的因素，确实非常重要。是的，你可以对其进行调整。我在书中也讨论了如何调整。但我认为，这并不是真的适用于所有情况。我可以告诉你，我是一位相当成熟的投资者。我通常保持投资在8812的比例。这样很简单。每年重新平衡一下，没有问题。超级简单。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this emotional stability, this emotional side of it, I think is really important. So yes, you can tweak it. Yes, I talk about how to tweak it in the book. But no, I don't really think it applies. I can tell you that I'm a pretty sophisticated investor. I just keep it at 8812. Real simple. Annual rebalancing, no problem. Super simple.
Trey Lockerbie: 之前我们讨论过钱的不同用途。每年美国人因为没有好好投资紧急备用金损失了多少呢？Trey Lockerbie: 我之前看过这个数据，不过我现在记不太清了，不过美国人存在储蓄账户里的钱大概有几千亿美元。所以这是一个很大的数字。而且我觉得实际数字可能更大，因为还有人把现金放在家里或者活期账户里。Trey Lockerbie: 好吧，假设我们讨论的资金是3000亿美元，并且假设你扣除税后可以赚取的利率，就算我们保守地估算只有1.67%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Trey Lockerbie: Earlier, we talked about the different jobs that money have. How much are Americans losing each year by not investing emergency funds properly? Trey Lockerbie: So I looked at this once and I don't have the number at my fingertips, but the amount of money Americans have in savings accounts is on the order of several hundred billion. So that's a huge number. And I actually happen to think it's quite a bit bigger than that because I think people have mattress cash or money in checking accounts. Trey Lockerbie: Well, let's assume for the sake of argument, it's $300 billion. And this allows you to earn, let's just say on an after tax basis, let's just even conservatively say 1.67%.
Trey Lockerbie: 光是这个计算就表明，把钱放在高收益储蓄账户上每年就可能少赚50亿美元。我认为，实际损失的可能比这还要多，因为高收益储蓄账户还包含其他一些特点，同时在广告上也花了不少钱。也就是说，整体来看，涉及的金额是以十亿美元计的。这就是为什么在我们开始录音前，我告诉你，我写这本书不是为了赚钱。
Trey Lockerbie: 这实际上是因为这个信息非常重要，我觉得应该分享。时代已经变了，不要盲从那些通用的建议，要自己思考。设立一个应急基金，我相信这会是个人投资组合中非常有用的一部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Trey Lockerbie: Just that calculation alone says there's $5 billion a year being left on the table by having your money in high yield savings. Now, I'd argue it happens to be a lot more than that because of a bunch of other features of high yield savings accounts, and there's money spent advertising high yield savings. I mean, there are a bunch of other things that are happening, but broadly speaking, it is in the billions of dollars. And that's why I told you before we started recording, I didn't write this book to make money. Trey Lockerbie: And it was really just about, this message was so important to share that, look, times have changed. Don't listen to this generic advice. Think for yourself. Get an emergency fund going. And I just think it can be a really, really useful aspect of someone's portfolio.
Trey Lockerbie：你认为过去十年左右，为什么很多千禧一代没有遵循那个建议？你认为这种情况在未来会改变吗？ Trey Lockerbie：千禧一代没有这样做的原因之一是因为我们经历了一个股市的黄金期，人们总是倾向于在股市上涨时购买更多的股票。这也是为什么我们常常高买低卖，因为当在派对上听到朋友在股市赚了大钱时，很难不想去做同样的事情。因此，我认为原因之一是股市实在太具有吸引力了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Trey Lockerbie: Why do you think many millennials haven't followed that advice over the last 10 years or so? And do you think that's going to change going forward? Trey Lockerbie: So why haven't millennials done this is because we've been in a great stock market period and people do what they always do, which is they buy more stocks when stocks go up. And that's why we end up buying high and selling low, because it's very hard to be at a party and hear about your friend who's made a ton of money in the stock market and not want to do the same thing. And so I think that's one reason is just, it's been so compelling to be in the stock market.
特雷·洛克比：这个时刻非常激动人心，许多千禧一代在他们的投资生涯中还没有经历过市场崩盘。
特雷·洛克比：好的。
特雷·洛克比：人们往往需要经历过市场崩盘，或者遇到紧急情况，才能意识到制定应急计划的必要性。
特雷·洛克比：所以我认为这就是最大原因——人们都在追求业绩，这是一种普遍的特征。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Trey Lockerbie: It's been this exciting time and millennials, a lot of them haven't experienced in their investing career, a crash. Trey Lockerbie: Okay. Trey Lockerbie: It takes people often to have gone through a crash, understand the need, or to have had an emergency to understand the need for an emergency plan. Trey Lockerbie: So I think that's the biggest reason is really this performance chasing, which is just a trait of everybody.
Trey Lockerbie: 这不仅仅是千禧一代的问题，而是涉及到所有人。Trey Lockerbie: 那些曾经历过紧急情况或理解储备应急基金重要性的人往往会这样做。希望你们不用亲身经历就能学到这一点，比如通过看到朋友失业或者读我的书或其他书籍来学习。但我认为，人们在经历过这样的股市崩盘后，就像在每次崩盘后一样，肯定会更加重视了解自己在股票方面的风险敞口。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Trey Lockerbie: It's not just millennials, it's everybody. Trey Lockerbie: And also just experience the people who tend to have emergency funds or people who've been through emergencies and understand the need for it. So hopefully rather than learning from it directly, you can learn by watching a friend lose a job or learn from just reading my book or some other book. But I think that people will, certainly after this kind of crash, just like they do in every crash, take much more into account, first of all, how exposed they are to stocks.
其次，他们在紧急情况下该怎么做。在我的书中，我逐步引导人们计算出应急资金的合适金额。好消息是，对于很多千禧一代来说，储备金不一定要达到六个月的生活开销。我们会详细讨论这个问题，但答案实际上要根据个人情况而定。尤其是对于年纪较轻的千禧一代，他们的工作和开销情况并不需要存下这么多钱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And second of all, what they're going to do in an emergency. And really what I do in my book is I walk people through the steps of figuring out how much that fund should be. And the good news is for a lot of millennials, it doesn't have to be six months of expenses. And we walk through that, but really the answer is it's dependent on your situation. And particularly for the younger branch of the millennials, they don't have the kinds of employment and expense situations that require such a huge amount of money.
所以这还是很可实现的。我认为最重要的是有一些后备计划，并明白，看，事情并不总是会一帆风顺。虽然自2008、2009年以来市场表现不错，经历了长达11年的牛市，但我们现在进入了一个新世界，我们将再次面临熊市。好消息是，对于你的退休投资组合而言，你其实希望出现熊市。因为如果人们采取正确的投资方式，他们会逐步投资，这样在市场低迷时就能买到打折的资产。所以这次市场崩盘背后有好的一面。对于大多数千禧一代来说，他们离退休还有一段时间。如果有些人接近退休，那可能是因为他们曾在创业公司赚到了大笔钱，他们对此并不在意。但整体来说，千禧一代距离退休尚远，因此股市表现下滑其实是个好事。虽然在经历的过程中可能感觉不好，但这确实是个好消息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it's very attainable. And I think it's just most important to have some kind of backup and understand, look, things aren't always going to go well just because they've gone well since 2008, 2009. 11 years, it's a huge bull market. But yeah, we're in a new world. We're going to face bear markets again. And the good news is you actually want bear markets for your retirement portfolio because presumably if people are doing the right thing, they're investing a little bit at a time and you just bought something on sale. So there is good news and a silver lining to this market crash. And that's that millennials are not near retirement for the most part. If they are, then they worked at some startup, made a big amount of money, and they don't really care. But millennials tend not to be close to retirement. And so having a dip in the performance of stocks is actually a really good thing. It doesn't feel like it when you're going through it, but it is good news.
罗伯特·莱昂纳德：我们在节目中从像您这样的优秀嘉宾那里学到的信息总是非常有帮助，我认为学习这些内容确实很重要。但另一个同样重要的方面是把我们在这些节目中学到的知识付诸实践。这就是我总是建议今天收听节目的人要做的：从这一集中学到的某些内容并将其付诸行动。那么，克里斯，在听完今天的节目后，千禧一代应该去做哪一件事情，以帮助他们更接近退休、实现财务自由，或者优化他们的投资组合呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: All of the information that we learn from great guests such as yourself here on the show is always super helpful and I think it's really important to learn. But I think the other component that's really important is actually putting what we learn in these episodes into action. And that's what I always recommend for people listening to the show today is to take something that we learned throughout the episode and go put it into action. So Chris, what would be that one thing that after listening to this episode today that a millennial should go out and do to get themselves closer towards retirement, financial freedom, or just optimizing their portfolio?
罗伯特·伦纳德：我要说的可能不是你预期的那样。当然，你可能认为我会说：“嘿，把你的钱放到应急基金里。” 但我认为对新投资者来说，最重要的事情是记下你的投资经历，特别是情感部分，以及你在最近的市场崩盘中的本能反应。你刚经历了一个极好的学习阶段，这种机会不常出现。如果你能够现实地回顾并记录，比如“发生了什么？我当时的感受如何？在三月份时我有没有想要卖掉？”这些都会告诉你很多关于你是什么样的投资者。因为很多投资实际上都需要与你个人紧密相关。你能承受多少风险？我可以告诉你，这次经历教会了很多人，他们其实比自己想象的更不愿冒险。这很好，你可以根据这种风险承受能力来进行适当的投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: So I'm going to say something that probably isn't what you expect. Of course, you're going to think that I'm going to say, “Hey, go put your money in an emergency fund.” But I think the most important thing when you're newer to investing, and by definition, if you're a millennial, you have much more of your investment life ahead of you than behind you. I think the most important thing is to journal about what your experience was, particularly the emotional side and what your instincts were during this last crash. You just experienced one of the best lessons, one of the best learning periods you're going to have. They're not going to come along that often. But if you're realistic and you journal about, “Hey, what happened? How did I feel? Did I want to sell in March?” It'll tell you so much about the kind of investor you are. Because a lot of investing, it really has to be personal to you. How much are you willing to tolerate risk? And I can tell you, this just taught a bunch of people that they were a little more risk-averse than they thought. And that's fine. You can invest appropriately for that.
但是，最重要的是要努力从这次学习经历中汲取教训，不仅仅是关于股市的变化。而且现在我们也正逐步走出居家隔离期。居家隔离实际上减少了很多干扰，这为我们提供了一个特别的机会去从过去中学习。所以，我想说的是，要从过去中学习。更重要的是，建立适合自己的系统，不仅仅是学习投资。这也是一种生活建议。最重要的是要学会成为一个优秀的学习者。无论是通过什么方法，通常这需要自我意识和接受错误的意愿，然后反思。如果你能做到这些，并有周围的人帮助你反思和提升能力，那么在你的投资生涯中你会有很大的前途。
关键在于如何提升自己。是的，你可能在三月份遇到了挫折，你可能不喜欢查看你的退休投资组合，但这些都不重要。关键在于你能够更聪明、更优秀、不断进步。这也是你为何在收听这次播客。如果你在听这段话，那你已经走在正确的轨道上。我只是建议，继续坚持，继续学习，保持反思，并在生活中建立系统，不仅是为了学习投资，而是为了学习一切，学习如何提高你的工作表现。甚至在我的情况下，如何成为一个更好的父亲。如果你具备了这种能力，没有什么能够阻止你前进。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But the biggest thing is really try to learn from this learning experience, both in terms of what happened in the stock market and also, we're coming out of shelter in place now. But shelter in place really deleted a lot of distractions. And so it's given us a special opportunity to learn from our past. And so I would just say, learn from the past. And then more importantly, put in place systems, whatever those are for you, not just to learn about investing. And this is life advice. The most important thing you can do is figure out how to be a great learner. And so whatever it is for you to do that, which typically has to involve self-awareness and a willingness to be wrong, and then reflection, if you can get that and you can get people around you to help you reflect and help you sharpen the tools, you have so much of your investing life ahead of you. This is all about how do I get better? Yes, you maybe took a hit in March. Yes, you don't like looking at your retirement portfolio. That is not going to matter. This is about you getting smarter, getting better, improving. It's why you're listening to this podcast. By definition, if you're listening to this, you're already on the right train. I'm just saying, keep riding that train, keep learning, be reflective, and then have systems in your life, not just for learning about investing, but learning about everything, learning about how to be better at your job. Even in my case, how do I be a better dad? If you have that ability, nothing's going to stop you.
罗伯特·伦纳德：我一直喜欢学习新的投资策略和不同的投资方式。所以，非常感谢你和我一起深入探讨了终极流动性投资组合，并感谢今天收听节目的听众。对于那些在节目之后想与你进一步交流的人，他们可以去哪里找到你呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: I always love learning about new strategies and just different ways to invest. So thank you for doing a deep dive into the Ultimate Liquidity Portfolio with me and for those listening to the show today. For those that want to connect with you further after the episode, where can they go to find you?
罗伯特·伦纳德：我有几种不同的方式，但我最有名的是我的周五通讯。这些通讯是90秒的阅读，真正总结了我本周听到的最佳想法。每次都有一篇关于金融的文章。然后我还有四个其他类别，包括一个随机类别、一句名言，以及一些关于健身、正念等方面的内容。所以涵盖了我感兴趣的所有领域。整个阅读过程只需要60到90秒。因此，我的保留率非常高，因为它不会让人感到无聊，而且我努力让内容非常有见地。这些内容也与我的博客文章等相关。所以首先，您可以访问 Upwarding.com，U-P-W-A-R-D-I-N-G.com，注册我的通讯。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: So there are several different ways, but I'm best known for my Friday newsletters. Those are 90 second reads that really summarize the best ideas I've heard that week. There's always one post about finance. And then I have four other categories. There's a random category. I have a quote. I have something on fitness, mindfulness, etc. So it's all the areas that I'm interested in. The entire time it takes to read is 60 to 90 seconds. So I have a very high retention rate because it doesn't bore people and I try to make it really insightful. And it relates to posts on my blog and things like that. So that's number one is go to Upwarding.com, U-P-W-A-R-D-I-N-G.com and sign up for my newsletter.
罗伯特·伦纳德：大家可以通过 Upwarding.com 给我发邮件。我尽量回复所有信息，而且我会阅读所有收到的邮件。所以，这是联系我的一种简单方式。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: People can send me an email through Upwarding.com. I try to respond to all the messages and I do read 100% of them. So it's an easy way to get ahold of me.
罗伯特·伦纳德：克里斯，非常感谢你来参加这个节目。我真的很感激。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: Chris, thanks so much for coming on the show. I really appreciate it.
克里斯·伦纳德：感谢您为社区所做的一切，真的很不错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Chris Leonard: Appreciate it. Thanks for everything you're doing for the community. Great stuff.
罗伯特·伦纳德：好的，大家。这就是我本周《千禧一代投资》节目要说的所有内容。我们下周再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: All right, guys. That's all I had for this week's episode of Millennial Investing. I'll see you again next week.
罗伯特·莱昂纳德：在您离开之前，我想简单说一下。没有Fiscal AI的朋友们，这一期节目就无法实现。Fiscal AI是一个完整的股票研究平台，是丹尼尔、凯尔和我在每一集节目中使用的工具。我们在调查每家公司时，可以查到长达20年的财务数据，深入到细分领域的数据，并获取最新财报电话会议中的相关引用。这一切的实时、机构级数据都集中在一个地方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Robert Leonard: Just a quick note before you go. This episode would not be possible without our friends at Fiscal AI. It is the complete stock research terminal that Daniel, Kyle, and I use on every single episode. With every company we dig into, pulling 20 years worth of financials, digging into segment level data, and grabbing quotes from the latest earnings calls, real time, institutional grade data, all in one place.
现在，通过我们的新AI连接器，您可以将相同的数据、财务信息、文本记录、基金信件、新闻、文件等等，直接接入Cloud ChatGVT或您用于研究的其他AI。如果您想亲自尝试，可以访问fiscal.ai/tivp以获得15%的折扣。链接在节目说明中。网址是fiscal.ai/tivp。感谢您的收听。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And now with our new AI connector, you can plug that same data, financials, transcripts, fund letters, news, filings, and more straight into Cloud ChatGVT or whatever AI you use for your own research. If you want to try it yourself, head to fiscal.ai/tivp to get 15% off. The link is in the show notes. That's fiscal.ai/tivp. Thanks for listening.
感谢您收听TIP。要查看我们的节目笔记、课程或论坛，请访问theinvestorspodcast.com。本节目仅用于娱乐目的。在做出任何决定之前，请咨询专业人士。本节目版权属于Investors Podcast Network。如需转载或再次播放，必须获得书面许可。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses, or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before for syndication or rebroadcasting.