Markets Weekly January 31, 2026

Hello my friends, today is January 31st and this is March of the week late. So this past week was a historic week. Not only did we get a new Fed share nominee, we also had a historic implosion in the precious metals, especially silver, down 30% in one day. So I think these two are linked, but just a little bit. So today let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about who a future chair wash is. And secondly, let's talk about the precious metals starting with Kevin Wash.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是1月31日，而这周真是个延迟的三月。这过去的一周是历史性的一周。不仅我们有了新的美联储主席提名人，而且贵金属市场也经历了历史性的崩盘，尤其是白银，一天之内下跌了30%。我认为这两者之间有一些联系，但只是稍微有那么一点点。所以，今天我们来谈两件事。首先，我们来聊一聊未来的美联储主席提名人是谁。其次，我们来讨论一下贵金属市场，先从Kevin Wash开始。

So over the past few months, it's been a roller coaster when it comes to the Fed share race. Now for most parts, Kevin Passen was in the lead and he was also a who I thought would be that chair. Now Kevin Passen was someone who had been with the president for a decade. He was the president's economist, chair of economic advisors during the president's first term. And right now he is a president of Nick, another high level policy making role. He's been a president's loyal economist for a long time. So it's the reason that he would be other president's future nominee.

在过去的几个月里，美联储主席竞选可谓是一场过山车。在大多数时间里，凯文·帕森一直处于领先地位，我也一直认为他会成为美联储主席。凯文·帕森与总统共事已有十年，他曾在总统的第一个任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席。目前，他是Nick的总裁，担任另一个高层政策决策职位。他长期以来一直是总统的忠实经济学家，因此他有理由成为总统未来的提名人。

With some phone, the president could trust, they tried to cut race as much as possible. But a couple of weeks ago, the president went out of his way at a prince conference to make the comment that it's probably not going to be a asset. Now in retrospect, it seems like the kind of the curve up with the criminal allegations against the Fed may have made some Republican senators less willing to confirm nominees that are perceived to be too loyal to the president. So that might have hurt him.

在一些他能信任的电话中，总统试图尽可能减少种族因素的考虑。但几周前，总统在一次记者会上特别提到，这可能不会成为一种优势。现在回过头来看，围绕联邦调查局的刑事指控似乎使一些共和党参议员不太愿意确认那些被认为对总统过于忠诚的提名人选。这可能对他的影响不利。

So after Kevin Hassek was out of the picture, the race came down to the reader, CIO at Black Rock. And then, Kevin Warsh, who was formerly a governor at the Fed during the great financial crises and almost nominated by the president to be fed chair during his first term. Now I've written about both of these guys. And to me, it was kind of a neck to neck race. I wasn't really sure what would happen.

所以在凯文·哈塞克退出后，竞选就只剩下读者和黑石集团的首席投资官。然后是凯文·沃什，他曾在大金融危机期间担任美联储的理事，并在总统第一个任期内几乎被提名为美联储主席。我曾经写过关于这两个人的文章。在我看来，这是一场势均力敌的竞赛。我并不确定最终会发生什么。

No, Rick Reader, I thought was someone who was actually very smart, very thoughtful. I think a good understanding of how the financial system worked today. Against them was that he previously had donated to Democrats and doesn't have really much of a relationship with the president and also even donated to the public and the people in the past who else and just not friends with the president. So it was, I think it was going to be difficult for the president to trust such an important job to this person who had such, you know, kind of no clear ties with him.

不，里克·里德在我看来是一个非常聪明、非常有思想的人。我认为他对当前金融体系的运作有很好的理解。然而，对他不利的是，他之前曾向民主党捐款，而且与总统关系不密切，也曾在过去向其他公众和人物捐款，和总统并不是朋友。所以，我认为总统很难将这样一项如此重要的工作交给一个与他没有明确联系的人。

Though maybe he's from a policy standpoint, maybe on the same page. Now Kevin Warsh has always been someone who I thought was bizarre that the president would like him. And I think many people feel this way as well. The reason being that Kevin Warsh has been a hawk, his entire career. He has been governor in the past and we can look from his previous statements declassified meeting transcripts and also he's been in public life just the podcast and lectures and op-eds and so forth for a long time.

也许在政策立场上，他可能和我们观点一致。然而，我一直觉得奇怪的是，总统会喜欢凯文·沃什。我认为很多人也有同样的感觉。原因是凯文·沃什一贯以来都是一个"鹰派"人物。他曾经是一位美联储理事，我们可以从他过去的一些声明、解密会议记录中看到这一点。此外，他很长一段时间一直活跃于公共生活中，通过播客、讲座和评论文章等表达他的观点。

And it's really, really clear who he is. He is a ginormous, ginormous hawk always, always talking about the feds of balance he'd too big and, you know, thinking that this would cause inflation and whatnot. Now Anna Wong from Blueberry Con economics had a really good chart of overlaying the unemployment rate, inflation rate and some of comments from Kevin Warsh during the great financial crises. Now, heading into the GFC, Kevin Warsh was like financial system totally, totally okay guys.

很明显，他的态度非常明确。他一直是个极其坚定的鹰派人物，总是谈论美联储的资产负债表太大，认为这会导致通货膨胀之类的问题。来自Blueberry Con经济学的Anna Wong制作了一张很好的图表，叠加了失业率、通货膨胀率和Kevin Warsh在金融危机期间的一些言论。在即将进入金融危机时，Kevin Warsh就像是在说，金融系统完全、完全没问题，大家安心吧。

But by the way, I'm worried about inflation. And you know, in the retrospect, obviously the financial system was not totally okay. But you know, everyone made that mistake, right? Ben Bernanke made that mistake and I think Ben Bernanke did a really good job as the chair, a totally great crisis fighter. So after the great financial crisis, unemployment rate, close at 10%, we were in the beginning of the great recession.

顺便提一下，我对通货膨胀感到担忧。而且你知道，回过头来看，金融系统显然并不是完全没问题的。但是你知道，每个人都犯了那个错误，对吧？本·伯南克也犯了那个错误，我认为他作为主席做得非常好，是个非常出色的危机应对者。所以在金融危机之后，失业率接近10%，我们正处于大衰退的开端。

Kevin Warsh, smart guy, obviously he updated his priorities, right? He learned, right? So well, actually no. No, even with the unemployment rate at multi-decade highs, Kevin Warsh was like, you know, I'm kind of concerned about inflation. So that was a call that was wrong, right? It seemed like his primary driver of his constant concern over inflation of the past decade was that the feds balance sheet. And that was also a totally reasonable stance, right?

凯文·沃什是个聪明的人，显然他调整了自己的优先事务，是吧？他学到了东西，对吧？其实并没有。即使在失业率达到多年来的高点时，凯文·沃什还是说，他有点担心通货膨胀。所以这个判断是错的，对吧？他过去十年来对通货膨胀的持续担忧，似乎主要是因为美联储的资产负债表。而这个立场其实也是完全合理的。

There were some people who had a monstrous view of the world saying that, hey, fed expanding balance sheet, putting a lot of money, increasing money supply, we're going to have a lot of inflation, right? And at that time, a gold crisis was surging. There was literally been concern from running smart people. Okay. So after a decade of this, now we can see that that's actually not how the world works. Did Kevin update his mental model? No, no, he's still saying the exact same thing.

有些人对世界持有夸张的看法，他们说美联储扩张资产负债表，投放大量资金，增加货币供应量，必然会导致大量通货膨胀，对吧？当时，金价危机正在上升，确实有一些聪明人对此表示担忧。好吧，经过十年后，我们可以看到事情并不像他们说的那样发展。那么，凯文是否更新了他的思维模式？没有，他仍然在说完全相同的话。

So he's someone who's consistently hawkish and someone who also is not able to update mental models. So that's kind of concerning, but for whatever reason, you know, President Likeson, I think over the past few months, he's also moderated stance. He's been talking about, you know, we had a productivity miracle. So we're going to be able to cut race and so forth, right? Saying the right things. But I think it's also very important to note that his father-in-law is Mr. Louter of Estee Lauder fame billionaire, and also someone who has been a big political donor to the president, to the Republican Party for a long time, and also washed his extremely, extremely well connected.

所以，他是一个一贯持强硬立场的人，并且他还无法更新自己的思维模式。这有些令人担忧，但不知为何，总统Likeson在过去几个月里立场有所缓和。他一直在谈论我们经历了生产力的奇迹，所以我们将能够降低利率等等，对吧？他说的是正确的事情。但我认为非常重要的一点是，他的岳父是享誉全球的雅诗兰黛家族亿万富翁Louter先生，也是长期以来总统和共和党的主要政治捐赠者之一，而且他人脉极广。

He knows a lot of influential people. And these influential people over the past few months, all came to bat for him. So there's a very, very wide campaign behind the scenes where he had all these important people that you would know, you would recognize, come and just put in a good word for Kevin Wash and in contrast, you know, Kevin Haset did not have the same network also, you know, perceived to be difficult to confirm, read reader, didn't seem to campaign as hard. So Kevin Wash definitely ran a very good campaign about this.

他认识很多有影响力的人。这些有影响力的人在过去几个月里都为他出力。并且，在幕后有一个非常广泛的支持活动，许多你熟知的人物为Kevin Wash说好话。相比之下，Kevin Haset没有同样的关系网，而且他还被认为不容易确认和沟通，看起来没有花太多精力去争取。因此，Kevin Wash在这方面确实做得很好。

And upon his nomination, you can see on Twitter, you had all these people congratulate him. So you got the Elmohamnelerian, you got Jason Perman, you got even Mark Karney, Prime Minister of Canada, all of these people pouring out and congratulating Kevin Wash, great guy. These are all people in his network. He is super well connected and these all these people pulled for him and that seemed to have pushed him across the finish line.

在他被提名后，你可以在推特上看到，很多人都在祝贺他。包括Elmohamnelerian、Jason Perman，甚至加拿大总理马克·卡尼，所有这些人都在祝贺凯文·沃什，称赞他是个很棒的人。这些人都是他的人脉中的一部分。他的人际关系非常好，这些人都支持他，似乎正是这种支持帮助他成功过关。

So what does a chairwashed bad mean? So first and foremost, he is finally going to be able to complete his dream of shrinking the fence balance sheet. Now, there's a lot of people saying that this will never happen. This is ridiculous. Trump loves to stop Marking and so forth. So I think those people are going to be wrong. The reason I think they're wrong is that a smaller fed balance sheet is actually a consensus position in the Trump administration. Secretary Becant believes in this. Governor Bowman believes in this. Governor Myron believes in this.

那么，"chairwashed bad" 是什么意思呢？首先最重要的是，他终于能够实现缩减美联储资产负债表的梦想。现在，有很多人说这根本不可能实现，觉得这很荒谬。人们认为特朗普热衷于关注股市等等。所以我认为这些人可能会想错了。我认为他们错的原因是，在特朗普政府内部，缩小美联储资产负债表实际上是一个普遍的共识。财政部长贝肯特相信这一点，州长鲍曼相信这一点，州长麦伦也相信这一点。

This is something they want to do and this is something they can do. This is, you know, I don't think this is not interest for policy. It's not a fed independence issue. So I think we have enough to do this. Question is why they want to. I don't know. Now the process doing this. It requires a lot of groundwork because it's going to be a fundamental transformation in how policy is implemented. So you're going to have to have a lot of baking deregulation, which they're on trial to doing.

这是他们想做的事情，也是他们可以做的事情。我认为这与政策无关，也不是一个关于美联储独立性的问题。所以，我认为我们有足够的条件去做这件事。问题是，他们为什么想这样做？我不知道。现在，说到具体实施这个过程，需要做大量的准备工作，因为这将是政策实施方式的根本性转变。因此，你需要进行很多基础性的放松管制，而他们正在尝试这样做。

And you're going to have public and volatility in the markets. And let's do it very, very slowly. Now, this is, in my view, probably going to be risk negative, depending on how smooth, limit how the baking regulations go for. So, you know, the thing is Kevin Wash openly tells you that he thinks that the strength of the balance sheet is going to be a tightening impact. And that's part of reason why you think so you can cut rates. So it's all out in the open. This is really what they want to do.

您将会看到市场的公开性和波动性。因此，我们需要非常非常缓慢地进行。而在我看来，要看银行法规执行得有多顺利，这可能会带来负面风险。Kevin Wash坦率地告诉你，他认为资产负债表的强健会带来紧缩的影响。这就是为什么你认为可以降息的部分原因。这一切都是公开的，他们真正想要的就是这样做。

And probably talk more about the, or read about this, this is fake about how I think this could happen and what the implications were. But overall, I think this is risk negative. Now the market took a look at this nomination. Surprised a bit. I guess this guy is like the harsh person of all the president's candidates. And so you had immediate reaction where you had the curve steepen a bit. So more rate cuts, but you know, the longer end sells off a bit, probably because the balance sheet thing.

大致翻译一下这段文字： 可能需要更多地讨论或阅读这方面的内容，这实际上是我认为可能发生的事情以及其影响的虚假信息。但总体来说，我认为这是个负面的风险。市场对这个提名做出了反应，稍感意外。我猜这个人是所有总统候选人中比较严厉的那个。因此，你立刻看到曲线略微陡峭一些。这意味着更多的降息，但长期债券略有抛售，可能是因为资产负债表的缘故。

And also you have the dollar knee drug strengthening. And that leads us to our second topic, the total implosion in the precious metals market. So listen, we've been talking about the precious metals silver in particular for the past few weeks. Now silver, as I noted over and over again, is the original meme point. Retail speculators love silver, right? And silver over the past few decades, you can see that periodically it just surges to the moon and then it implodes happen in the 1980s, happened in the 2010s.

此外，还有美元膝盖药物的强化。这引出了我们的第二个话题，即贵金属市场的全面崩溃。所以，各位注意，我们最近几周一直在讨论贵金属，特别是白银。正如我一再指出的，白银是最早的“迷因点”。散户投机者非常喜欢白银，对吧？在过去的几十年里，你会发现白银的价格周期性地暴涨，然后又崩溃。这种情况在1980年代和2010年代都发生过。

And I know this because I was in silver at that time, you know, making a lot of money. And then I remember distinctly one Sunday evening, a global X open and then just all him crashing down. And there was a attempt to recapture the the the highest 50 at that time. And then it just lost that and then just totally imploded. It was a painful experience. So looking at this extreme stream surge in silver.

我清楚地记得，因为当时我在白银市场赚了很多钱。我特别记得某个星期天晚上，全球市场开盘后，价格开始暴跌。那时曾尝试再次突破当时的历史高点50，但未能成功，随之彻底崩溃。这是一次痛苦的经历。所以，当我看到这次白银价格的极端上涨时，心中感慨万千。

And again, I instinctively knew that this is going to happen again. This is just how markets work. It's just a new generation understanding and learning about speculation. So earlier in the week, I posted this that guys I'm going to go and sell some physical silver. I was already all on my paper silver and looking at prices surge. I think at that day was like one ten and fifteen. I was like, this is totally ridiculous. And then I was looking at the silver bars that I had. Why am I holding this? You know, if you really think about it, I mean, what am I using this stock? What am I using this stock for? Honestly, it's on the ground in front of some wires so that my robot vacuum will not be chomping on the wires. Sometimes I use silver bars to hammer something. I've watched some convincing footage that says it's very effective against werewolves, but other than that, you know, this stuff is this stuff. It's just it's just the huge rock, right?

再一次，我本能地知道这种情况会再次发生。这就是市场运作的方式。只不过是新一代在理解和学习投机。于是，在本周早些时候，我发帖说，我要去卖一些实物银。我已经全都投入了纸白银，并看到价格飙升。那天的价格大概是一百十和十五，这实在是太荒谬了。然后我看着我拥有的银条，心想：我为什么要持有这些呢？说真的，这些存货到底有啥用？实际上，它们就放在地上，用来防止我的扫地机器人把电线咬住。有时我甚至用银条来敲打东西。我也看过一些有说服力的视频，称它对付狼人非常有效，但除此之外，这些东西也就是一块大石头，对吧？

It's so so what, what am I doing with this? In some weird bizarre scenario, where we actually have a man next world. This is totally not useful, but would be useful with something like a technology, for example, right? If we live in a mad max world, you're not going to have any more computers or cell phones. And this stuff, this stuff is really, really difficult to make. It takes hundreds of vendors, a lot of engineers. It's basically the tenacle of our technological civilization. And even the mad max world, you won't be able to make these texts up anymore. So you would have these useful things, not this rock. Even if you were, you know, thinking about having the sort of value, silver is actually that good for that because it's too heavy. And if you, you know, a hundred ounce bar, it's like 10 grand, but it's heavy. You can't really move it around. You would gold, for example, would be much, much better for that.

这段话的意思是：这真是无所谓，我到底在干什么呢？在一个奇怪荒谬的情景中，如果我们真的有一个人类的下一步世界，这东西就没有什么用了，但如果有像某种科技这样的东西，那就很有用了，对吧？如果我们生活在一个类似《疯狂的麦克斯》的世界里，就不再会有电脑或手机了。这些东西真的非常难制造，需要数百家供应商和许多工程师，它们基本上是我们技术文明的触角。即使是在《疯狂的麦克斯》那样的世界里，你也不能再制造出这些技术了。所以你会有这些有用的东西，而不是这块石头。即使你考虑到某种价值，比如说白银，其实也不太好，因为它太重了。如果你有一百盎司的银条，价值大约一万美元，但太沉了，根本没法随身带着。黄金，作为对比，就要好得多。

So I went and took my silver bar to the local dealer and he offered me, you know, I actually notably below spot. Nice like 15, 20 below spot, but I took it anyway. And then I posted and I came back and I saw how viral my posts had gone. I saw the comments and I'm like, holy shit, I'm not bearish enough. All these low information investors just kind of clamoring yet. And so the next day I went to try to sell another bar. And to my surprise, the dealer actually told me that he's not buying. He was not buying too many people selling his, the, the foundry that he sells to also can pay him for like two months, his vault is full. So he's not. So I have to actually go to a couple other dealers to try to find people to to to upload my bars.

所以，我去找本地的经销商，想卖掉我的银条，他给我的报价实际上明显低于市场价，大概低了十五到二十，但我还是卖了。然后我发了个帖子，回来一看，我的帖子竟然火了。看到评论后，我心想，天啊，我对市场前景的看法还不够悲观。很多不了解情况的投资者都在纷纷议论。于是，第二天我又去试着卖另一根银条，结果让我吃惊的是，那个经销商告诉我他不收购了，因为有太多人在卖，他说他供货的铸造厂也要两个月才能给他付款，他的储藏室已经满了。所以我不得不去找其他几家经销商，看有没有人愿意收购我的银条。

And I also note that when I was lining in line, not in line to try to sell silver, there's a long line in people selling basically all boomers with their, you know, who've been stacking for some time. It seems in the window to buy silver only one person, a zoomer. So I was like, yeah, this is just part of learning, I guess. So in the internet, I noticed that people are saying, guys, it's not the top. It's not the top. You know why? It's because at the top, everyone is clamoring to buy. Everyone's trying to sell. So obviously it's not the top. And I thought about that for a little bit. But then guys, if I want a sell silver and I can't even sell, that can't be that can't be risk positive, right?

我注意到，当我排队的时候，不是在排队卖银子的时候，发现有很多人在卖银子，基本上都是那些存了很久的老一辈。而买银子的人窗口前只有一个年轻人。所以我就想，这可能只是学习过程的一部分吧。在网上我看到有人说，现在还不是高点。你知道为什么吗？因为在高点的时候，大家都在抢着买，而现在大家都在卖。所以显然这还不是顶点。我想了想，但如果我想卖银子，却发现根本卖不掉，那这不可能是风险积极的信号，对吧？

And also, it's about a dis misinformation like that. For example, there's some people saying that I'm actually being able to, my dealer is buying silver above spot. That's just so stupid, guys. That's totally not what how a dealer works. A dealer works at the same thing as a dealer in the treasury market. For example, let's say that spot is 100. He's going to buy a low spot and sell above spot. He makes that spread. That's how he makes his money. Buying low, selling high, you know, bit ask a bit offer and so forth, right? That's how dealers work. So, to me, this is just totally, totally insane.

这段话的意思是关于错误信息。有些人说“我”的经销商在以高于现货价格的价格购买白银。这种说法非常荒谬，完全不符合经销商的运作方式。经销商的工作方式就像国债市场的经销商一样。他们会低于现货价格买入，高于现货价格卖出，通过这样的价差来获利。简单来说，就是低买高卖，通过买卖报价来赚钱。所以，这种错误信息实在是荒谬至极。

Now I remember all these people coming out and we don't you get it. Fiat is going to zero. Don't you get it? You know, Chinese are buying. Don't you get it? Right? The stuff, the banks are short. We're going to go mop and so forth. Now, what these guys don't get though is that back in the 2010s, people said the exact same thing. I'm not even joking. They said the exact same thing. That's everyone was buying into 50. They said it on the way to 50 and they said it on the way down to 15. What's even more surprising is that when I look back to the 1980s looking into when the Hunts and Brothers are trying to squeeze silver. Same thing actually. Inflation is high. Deficit is our large.

现在我想起那些人说的话，他们说法币要变得一文不值了。你明白了吗？他们说中国人在买入，你明白了吗？就是这些东西，银行在做空。我们要大干一场之类的。可是这些人没意识到的是，早在2010年代，人们说的就是一模一样的话，我不是开玩笑的，他们当时也这么说。那时候每个人都相信价格会上升到50，他们在价格涨到50时这么说，在跌到15时也这么说。更令人惊讶的是，当我回顾到1980年代时，看着亨特兄弟试图操控白银市场——其实情况也是一样的。那时通货膨胀很高，财政赤字很大。

Guys, this is basically your debatement rate and they said that all the way up to 50 and all the way down to $7. So, the stuff guys just happens over and over again. All this is speculation, momentum, leverage, so forth, highly, highly unstable. And so, when you have a very, very unstable thing, you just have a little push to overwhelm to tip over the apple cart. And that's what Kevin Worsh did. He just comes in, jala strength is not hugely, but you know, markedly, but that seems to unravel everything. You got, when volatility picks up, some pretty sells, he's over levered. Some people off the sell, and then you have these people who are, you know, managed according to volatility, volatility spikes. They have to sell. You got CTAs looking at momentum. They have to sell everyone's sells. And then it becomes really, really disorderly, which is exactly what happened down 30% a day. That is one for the history books.

伙计们，这基本上就是你们的辩论率，他们说最高可以到50，最低可以到7美元。所以，这种事儿一再发生。所有这些都是投机、动量、杠杆等，极其不稳定。所以，当你有一个非常不稳定的东西时，只需要稍微推一下就能打破平衡。这就是Kevin Worsh所做的。他进来稍微施加了一点力量，虽然不是很大，但显然足以让一切崩溃。当波动性上升时，有些人就会因为过度使用杠杆而抛售。有人不得不卖出，然后那些根据波动性管理的人也因为波动性激增而被迫抛售。量化交易机构看到动量时也得卖，大家都卖。结果市场就变得非常混乱，就像那一天市场下跌了30%一样，这绝对是载入史册的事件。

It's really, really shocking to me how badly this has played out, but also how much levers it was in their system. Now, as an aside, though, I would also note that having silver, but some people were saying like hundreds of dollars, that's never going to happen. It's not going to happen because silver is different from, you know, this other crap people have speculated, right? Silver is actually an industrial metal. Stuff like a meme coins, dog coins, stuff like that. You can go push that as high as you want. Nobody cares. But if you, but silver is something that has to do with industrial policy, national security, stuff like that. So the government is not going to let the speculators squeeze it too, too really high because it actually packs a lot of important interest groups.

这件事情发展的如此糟糕让我感到非常震惊，但也让我意识到他们的系统中有很多杠杆。不过，顺便提一下，关于白银，有些人说它的价格会飙升到几百美元，这根本不可能。因为白银不同于那些人们炒作的其他东西，比如某些虚拟币、狗币之类的，你可以随便炒多高，没人会在意。但白银是一种工业金属，涉及到工业政策、国家安全等问题。因此，政府不会让投机者把白银价格推得太高，因为这涉及很多重要的利益团体。

And so in the 1980s, you have all these people who basically gotten together to wrickly games. So that silver imploded huge market hikes. Of course, also only letting people sell, not buy and so forth. So I mean, if you want to push something higher in gold, in my view, is something that could go higher. These industrial models, you're fighting politically car meat. But gold, of course, also huge, huge depth, 10% down. Now, I'm not as negative about gold. I think gold actually, I think we could still have higher highs this year. It seems like there's a lot of things going on. Higher dynamics, and not as lover, and also much stronger demand base.

在20世纪80年代，有很多人齐聚一堂，试图操控市场。这导致了白银市场的剧烈波动。显然，当时也只允许人们卖出而不能买入，等等。所以，如果你想推动黄金价格上涨，我认为这是可能的。在工业模式中，你会遇到政治上的阻力。但黄金市场本身存在着巨大的深度，曾经一度下跌了10%。不过，我对黄金的看法没有那么悲观。我认为，黄金今年仍可能创下新高。看起来市场上正在发生很多事情，市场动态增强，需求基础也变得更加强劲。

You actually have, for example, central banks or other people who are a little bit more conservative in their views buying gold. Now, you will not have central banks by silver. That's just not what they buy. So I think that my best guess for silver is that we kind of try to push up. Maybe I don't try to touch 100 or something like that. We sell, and then it'd be the end. Until again, looking at the silver graph. A few decades. Gold though, I'm much more positive. I'm not as worried about that.

事实上，例如，你会看到一些比较保守的机构或个人，比如中央银行，会购买黄金。但是，中央银行是不会购买白银的，他们就是不买这种东西。所以，我对白银的最佳猜测是，可能会设法推高价格，但可能达不到每盎司100美元或类似水平。然后，我们出售，然后可能就结束了。之后需要再过几十年才能看到白银的动向。至于黄金，我就更积极乐观一些，对此没有那么担心。

So one thing to note is that that's really, really in gold's favor is that we do have real geopolitical risk heating up right now. So a carrier has entered the Middle East last week. And it does seem like they're going to try to do something over there. And so that's going to be, now this is probably not going to be Venezuela. Again, President has been very calculated and has used military force. By the way, this is not at all MAGA. But he, you know, these calculations are difficult to make. You have huge amounts of uncertainty in geopolitics. A lot of things that are difficult to predict, and we don't know that we don't know.

需要注意的一点是，黄金目前真的有很大的优势，因为当前地缘政治风险正在加剧。上周，一艘航母进入了中东地区，看起来他们打算在那里采取一些行动。不过，这次的情况可能不同于委内瑞拉。总统一直很谨慎地使用军事力量。顺便说一句，这完全与MAGA（让美国再次伟大）无关。但要做出这些决策非常困难，因为地缘政治中存在大量不确定性，许多事情难以预测，我们甚至对一些事情完全没有头绪。

So it could be very, very bad. And that could help gold. In any case, totally historic week. All right. I'll talk to you guys next week.

所以这可能会非常、非常糟糕。而这可能会对黄金有利。无论如何，这是个历史性的一周。好了，下周再跟大家聊。