Markets Weekly February 7, 2026

Hello my friends, today is February 7th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a volatile weekend markets. The week before we had volatility in the precious metals this week it was in the major indexes. Looking at the S&P 500, we briefly broke below the 100 day moving average. However, we did have a monster rally on Friday and that took us right back above the 50 day moving average, which many market participants perceived to be indicative of an ongoing uptrend. However, zooming out when I look at this it seems really obvious that we've gone nowhere for months and continue to lose momentum so it does not look good to me.

你好，朋友们，今天是2月7日，这是本周的市场周报。在刚过去的一周里，市场经历了剧烈的波动。前一周，贵金属市场波动较大，而在这一周，主要股指表现出不稳定性。看看标准普尔500指数，我们曾短暂跌破了100日均线。不过，周五我们迎来了大幅反弹，使得指数重新回到50日均线之上，许多市场参与者认为这表明市场的上升趋势仍在继续。然而，从更长远的视角来看，我发现我们几个月来几乎没有进展，动能也在持续减弱，所以我对市场前景并不乐观。

So today let's talk about three things. First off, we have to talk about the labor market where it seems like we're getting worse labor market data and that's suggestive of more cuts than what's currently priced into the market. Secondly, let's talk a little bit about the carnage in the stock market. It seems to be largely driven by tech in part due to Amazon earnings in part due to a new AI model from Anthropic that is challenging the business models of software as a service companies. And lastly, we have to talk a little bit about crypto. We had tremendous volatility in Bitcoin down to 60,000, but of course rebounded by $10,000 on Friday. It seems like we may be heading into a crypto winter.

今天我们来讨论三件事情。首先，我们必须谈谈劳动力市场。似乎我们收到的劳动力市场数据越来越差，这意味着市场中可能计划的削减措施会比实际更多。其次，我们来聊聊股市的动荡。主要是由于科技板块引发的，部分原因是亚马逊的财报，另外还有因为Anthropic推出的新AI模型，正在挑战软件即服务（SaaS）公司的商业模式。最后，我们要稍微谈一下加密货币。比特币最近经历了大幅波动，降至60,000美元，但在周五又反弹了10,000美元。看起来我们可能正在步入加密货币的“冬天”。

All right, starting with the labor market. So last week we had the challenger report something that was pretty surprising. So challenger is a private consulting company that goes and pulls companies about their intentions to hire or fire. Now according to them, businesses have significantly wrapped up their intention to layoff workers. In fact, the total amount of announced layoffs could be as high as it's been in many years. Now that seems to be coordinated by official data that was announced a few days later. The Joltz report that shows that job openings surprisingly decreased. Now job openings for job openings per worker looking for a job has now declined to levels that are below pre-pandemic. So it's very clear that the labor market continues to soften.

好的，我们从劳动力市场开始。上周，Challenger公司发布了一份令人惊讶的报告。Challenger是一家私人咨询公司，他们对企业的雇佣或裁员意图进行调查。根据他们的报告，企业明显增加了裁员的计划。实际上，宣布的裁员总数可能达到了多年来的高位。这点与几天后公布的官方数据一致。JOLTS报告显示，职位空缺出人意料地减少了。现在，每个找工作者可供选择的职位数量已经下降到低于疫情前水平。因此，很明显，劳动力市场持续疲软。

Now recall, at the last thin meeting, Governor Waller dissented and wanted a 25 basis point cut. The rationale he gave was that he was hearing from his contacts that everyone is thinking about laying off workers. And so they were a significant downside risk to the labor market. Now we all thought it was because he wanted to be fed share and maybe that plays a role. But it seemed like his information was accurate. So normally we would have gotten the non-formist payroll report on Friday. But because of a government shutdown, that's been postponed until Wednesday. So at that time we'll get the gold standard labor market report. But the direction seems very clear. The labor market is softening. And if that's the case, that also suggests downside risk to inflation.

现在回想一下，在上次的会议上，沃勒州长表示反对，并希望降低25个基点。他的理由是，他从自己的联系人那里听到大家都在考虑裁员。因此，这对劳动力市场构成了显著的下行风险。我们原以为他这么做是因为想成为美联储主席，这可能有一定影响。但似乎他的信息是准确的。通常情况下，我们会在周五收到就业报告，但由于政府停摆，报告推迟到了周三发布。所以到时候我们会看到权威的劳动力市场报告。不过趋势似乎很明显，劳动力市场正在走软。如果真是这样，也意味着通胀存在下行风险。

The US is largely as services driven in economy. If you look at the inflation indexes, it's also largely services driven as well. If you have a weak labor market, then wage growth will decelerate. And that suggests downward pressure on service inflation, which of course implies downward pressure on the broader inflation indexes. Together, we could labor market, we could inflation. I suggest that we'll probably get more Fed cuts than the two cuts priced into the market. That will make a share worse drop a lot easier.

美国经济主要由服务业驱动。如果你查看通货膨胀指数，会发现它也主要由服务业推动。如果劳动力市场疲软，那么工资增长将会放缓。这意味着服务业的通胀会受到下行压力，而这又会对整体通胀指数产生下行影响。结合劳动力市场疲软和通胀放缓的情况，我认为美联储可能会比市场预期的两次降息进行更多的降息。这将使股市下跌变得更加容易。

Okay, the second thing we have to talk about, of course, is the volatility and the equity markets. And this was largely centered in tech. So over the past few weeks, we got the MagSeptic earnings. And they've been announcing a lot of capital expenditures into AI. This has been an ongoing thing. If you look at this chart from the Wall Street Journal, you can see that collectively, the MagSeptic companies are investing hundreds of billions in the AI buildup, right? Buying data centers, GPU chips, power plants and so forth. So it's been something that the market is aware of. And in the past, as rewarded, seeing that the companies are investing in AI, I guess made investors think that they are going to benefit from the AI revolution.

好的，第二个我们要讨论的当然是波动性和股市。这主要集中在科技领域。过去几周，我们看到了MagSeptic公司的财报。他们宣布在人工智能方面投入了大量资本。这一直是个持续的话题。如果你看《华尔街日报》的这张图表，可以看到MagSeptic公司在AI建设上总体投入了数千亿美元，比如购买数据中心、GPU芯片、电厂等等。因此，市场对此是有意识的。在过去，市场对于公司在AI方面的投资给予了奖励，因为投资者认为这些公司会从AI革命中受益。

As an aside, President MacKona France also announced that he's going to doing some investments into AI. He announced a 30 million investment in AI researchers. That is not billion, okay. In any case, then the market has usually rewarded the maximum companies for investing in AI. But this week, though, there seems to be a little bit of a change in tune. Now, when Amazon announced that they would invest 200 billion in AI this year, the market punished them. So their stock was down 10% after earnings. Now, sometimes it seems to have rewarded meta, for example. But now it seems to be not clearly good for their stock price. So that could potentially market change in tune in how the market is receiving this. Because obviously, when the company is spending so much money on AI, it's less cash available to return to shareholders in the form of buybacks.

顺便提一下，法国总统麦克柯纳（MacKona）也宣布他将对人工智能进行一些投资。他宣布向人工智能研究人员投资3000万。这不是30亿，好的。不管怎样，以往市场通常会奖励那些在人工智能上投资最多的公司。但本周，情况似乎有些变化。这次，当亚马逊宣布今年将投资2000亿于人工智能时，市场却惩罚了他们。在财报发布后，他们的股价下跌了10%。例如，市场有时似乎会奖励像Meta这样的公司。但现在对他们的股价是否有利似乎并不明朗。因此，这可能意味着市场对这类消息的反应有所转变。显然，当公司在人工智能上花费如此多的资金时，就会减少用于回购股票返还给股东的现金。

And of course, it is a huge bet. AI is obviously really quote technology, but it may not be very profitable. It is obviously a competitive, competitive industry. I also note that at the announcement of Amazon's huge capis expenditures, I would have expected companies like Nvidia and other chipmakers to benefit. But I didn't see that, so that was interesting. Now, the other thing in the tech world, of course, was the announcement of Anthropic AI. It's a new cloud version, which apparently can do a lot of vibe coding really well that allows people who are not trained programmers to be able to vibe code things really easily.

当然，这绝对是一个巨大的赌注。人工智能显然是一项非常前沿的技术，但未必会特别盈利。这个行业竞争非常激烈。在亚马逊宣布巨额资本支出时，我本以为像英伟达和其他芯片制造商这样的公司会受益，但没有看到这样的情况，这很有趣。在科技领域的另一件事是Anthropic AI的发布。它是一个新的云版本，据说非常擅长生成代码，使得没有受过专业编程训练的人也能轻松编写代码。

Basically, customize software that could potentially replace software that their companies currently use. Let's say things like document review, back office stuff, payroll accounting, maybe stuff like that. So companies that currently specialize in things like that like Salesforce or Adobe, they saw their stock price decline pretty notably the past week. The thinking is, of course, if a company can use an AI bot to create customized vibe-coded software to suit their needs and protect their own data at a very, very low price, why would they be using these software as a services of these SaaS companies?

基本上，有公司定制软件以可能替换他们目前使用的软件。比如文档审核、后台工作、薪资会计等类似的事情。而那些目前专注于这类服务的公司，比如Salesforce和Adobe，它们的股价在过去一周明显下跌。原因显而易见：如果一家公司可以使用AI机器人来创建定制化的软件，以极低的价格满足他们的需求并保护自己的数据，那么他们为什么还要使用这些SaaS公司的软件服务呢？

And so that kind of makes sense, but then we also have to keep in mind that a lot of these companies have long-standing relations with their services providers. And of course, you have a lot of employees who probably don't want to change the way they currently do things. So there is some sticking as there. But in any case, the market was a little bit panic. Now, this also bled into the credit markets as well. So over the past few years, a lot of the private credit companies have been lending to software companies in a big way. Erie's capital corporation, which manages the largest business BDC, publicly traded BDC, which is a publicly traded private credit fund, has almost a quarter of their assets in loans to software companies.

这就说得通，但我们也要考虑到这些公司与其服务提供商有长期的合作关系。当然，还有很多员工可能不愿意改变他们目前的工作方式。所以在这方面有一些阻力。但无论如何，市场有些恐慌。这种情况也蔓延到了信贷市场。过去几年，许多私人信贷公司大举向软件公司提供贷款。管理最大的上市商业开发公司（BDC）的Erie's资本公司，几乎四分之一的资产都在向软件公司提供的贷款上。

Now, again, software companies are all different. People do different things. But the market is looking at this in their worry that AI could cannibalize other software companies and that could present downside risks to not just equities, but to the loans that people made to these companies. So if you look at the stocks of the managers of these private credit funds, they all took a dive as well. So you seem to have some contagion where AI is significantly disrupting adjacent industries in software. Now, in the long run, this could all be very good. We could have more efficiencies, lower costs and so forth.

现在，再次强调，软件公司各有不同，人们的做法也不尽相同。不过，市场在担心AI可能会对其他软件公司形成“自相残杀”的局面，这不仅可能对股票造成下行风险，还可能影响到那些向这些公司提供贷款的人。因此，如果你观察这些私人信贷基金管理公司的股票，你会发现它们同样遭遇了下跌。这看起来像是一种连锁反应，AI在显著扰乱与软件相关的行业。不过，从长期来看，这一切可能会带来好处，比如提高效率、降低成本等等。

But in a short run, this is definitely disrupting existing business models as creative destruction always does. So again, this is probably a panic. You could have a lot of people having leveraged exposure to all this stuff, just kind of degrocing and so forth, but it is a trend to watch for. All right, the last thing that I want to talk about, of course, is crypto. Now, this last week, we saw tremendous volatility in Bitcoin. Now we saw Bitcoin drop 10 grand to 60,000 on Thursday, possibly a bad earnings report, but then it did rebound on Friday to above 70,000.

在短期内，这确实在破坏现有的商业模式，就像任何创新破坏一样。所以，这可能让人感到恐慌。很多人可能对这些东西有过度的投资，并经历去杠杆化等等，但这确实是一个值得关注的趋势。好了，最后我想谈谈加密货币。当然，上周我们看到了比特币的巨大波动。星期四，比特币下跌了1万美元，降至6万美元，可能是由于不好的业绩报告，但周五它又回升到7万美元以上。

And when you take a step back and you look at it, it looks like Bitcoin has basically given up all the gains that it had from the Trump, from the Trump boost. Now, President Trump was famously going to be a crypto president. He even spoke at the Bitcoin conference and was greeted with huge, huge cheers. Now upon his ascension to the White House, he did carry out a lot of pro crypto promises. He himself, of course, his family is dabbling in many crypto related ventures. The president himself launched a Trump coin.

当你退后一步仔细观察时，你会发现，比特币基本上放弃了从特朗普"推动"中获得的所有收益。大家都知道，特朗普曾被誉为会支持加密货币的总统。他甚至在比特币会议上发言，受到了热烈的欢迎。上任白宫后，他也确实兑现了许多支持加密货币的承诺。他的家族也涉足了许多与加密货币相关的项目。总统本人还推出了一种名为"特朗普币"的加密货币。

He did shepherd and legislation, the genius act that created a regulatory framework for dollar-state of the coins and even suggested the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. So from the government side, the president has really done a lot to be pro crypto, definitely a sharp contrast to President Biden. Now, sounding all of this, we saw crypto surge to 125,000. It seems to fall an old way back. And so I think that is impacting a lot of market sentiment. And it's not just Bitcoin, Bitcoin, of course, is the gold standard in the crypto world. But if you look at other coins, they're also not doing very well.

他负责引导和立法，这一杰出举动为支持加密货币的美元硬币建立了监管框架，并甚至建议创建战略性比特币储备。因此，从政府的角度来看，这位总统在支持加密货币方面确实做了很多工作，这与拜登总统形成了鲜明对比。在这些政策的影响下，我们看到了加密货币飙升至125,000。但是，它似乎又掉回了以前的水平。我认为这对市场情绪产生了很大的影响。不仅仅是比特币，比特币当然是加密货币世界的黄金标准，但如果你观察其他货币，它们的表现也不是很好。

It seems to me that there is a very much crisis of confidence in the crypto world. So everyone buys and sells assets for different reasons. So it's always careful. You don't want to draw strong conclusions. But one of the biggest arguments, some proponents for Bitcoin and other crypto is that it's basically a hedge against fiat, there's a basement trade and so forth. And what we've seen over the past few months is that it doesn't seem to have been benefiting from the debasement trade.

在我看来，加密货币世界正面临着严重的信心危机。人们出于各种不同的原因买卖资产，因此总是要小心。你不想得出过于武断的结论。然而，比特币和其他加密货币的主要支持者之一的论点是，它们基本上是一种对抗法定货币贬值的避险工具。然而，在过去的几个月里，我们看到它们似乎并没有从货币贬值交易中获益。

Now, over the past few months, you've seen gold surge. You've seen silver surge. Now, these are traditional. But people think of a traditional debasement trade. Even, let's say, basementals have surge, say copper, stuff like that, aluminum. And over the past year, you've also seen the dollars that are weak and you have a sell America trade that emerges sometimes. But through all that, Bitcoin just continues to sell off. And so it's not doing what many people thought it would do.

在过去的几个月里，你会注意到黄金和白银的价格都在飙升。这些都是传统的投资选择，人们通常会认为它们是应对货币贬值的传统手段。即使是基础金属，比如铜和铝等也在上涨。此外，过去一年中，美元表现疲软，有时会出现“抛售美国”这样的趋势。但是，不管这些市场怎么变化，比特币却一路下跌，这与许多人原先的预期截然不同。

And so there is very much a crisis as to, well, what drives it? Why isn't going up? Why isn't it trailing gold so much? And of course, you will have people who trade it on technicals. And if you look at Bitcoin, it's been hanging out below the 200-day moving average for some time, which, and very clearly not in an uptrend. So there does seem to be a lot of concern there.

这确实是一个危机，到底是什么驱动了这一切？为什么它没有上涨？为什么它与黄金的走势相差那么多？当然，有些人会根据技术分析来进行交易。比如，如果你查看比特币的走势，会发现它已经在200日均线以下徘徊了一段时间，很明显并没有处于上升趋势。因此，这方面确实有很多担忧。

Now, I would also note that the people who invest in Bitcoin, honestly, usually are tech savvy, and so they could be invested in other tech stocks as well. And so you could have, this could be in part, be a deleveraging thing where people who are invested in, say, tech or maybe high-momentum stuff like silver also have to deleverage because of their exposure to these clear losing assets and that bleeds into crypto.

现在，我还想指出的是，那些投资比特币的人通常对技术比较精通，因此他们也可能投资于其他科技类股票。因此，这可能部分是一个去杠杆化的过程，比如投资了科技股或是像白银这样波动较大的资产的人，由于他们在这些明显亏损的资产上有风险暴露，不得不去杠杆化，而这也会影响到加密货币市场。

But overall, though, it does seem like things are not looking good. But of course, zooming out, you know that many times, over the many years, that Bitcoin has gone through periodic winters where prices have been very low for extended periods of time where everyone has run the math. But you do also, again, see it for whatever reason, search to new highs.

总体而言，情况似乎不太乐观。不过，回顾过去，众所周知，比特币在多年里经历过多次"冬季"，在这些时期价格长时间处于低谷，每个人都对它进行过仔细分析。但同样，无论出于什么原因，我们也看到它一次次冲向新的高点。

So it's always difficult to say this is obviously a very sentiment and momentum driven asset. But at the moment, though, I think many people who bought this on the idea that it would be a hedge against Fiat are having a crisis of confidence. All right, so that's what we prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. And I'll talk to you guys next.

所以，这显然是一个受情绪和动量驱动的资产，很难轻易下定论。但是，目前，我觉得很多人买入它是基于对抗法币的想法，而现在他们正经历信心危机。好的，这是我们今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听，我们下次再聊。