Markets Weekly March 14, 2026
发布时间 2026-03-15 00:49:29 来源
Hello my friends, today is March 14th and this is markets weekly. Alright guys, so we're at war. This is the second week and no one knows how long this is going to go on for. Last week we had GDP data, big disappointment, PC inflation, a little bit harder than many would like. But at the end of the day, like we talked about three weeks ago, once this war breaks out, it's going to overshadow everything and that's what's happening right now.
你好，朋友们，今天是3月14日，欢迎收看本周市场动态。好吧，大家，我们正在处于战争中。这是第二周，没有人知道这场战争会持续多久。上周公布的国内生产总值（GDP）数据让人失望，而个人消费支出（PC）通胀率高于许多人的预期。但正如我们三周前所讲的，一旦战争爆发，它将会掩盖其他一切，而这正是目前正在发生的情况。
So today, first let's talk about how we're on the path to a pretty severe global recession and secondly, I'll talk a little bit about private credit since that's in the news all the time. Alright, starting with global recession. So let's break you down high level. What is a recession? Recession is basically negative growth, right? You're producing fewer goods and services this year than you did last year. And an easy way for that to happen is to just have fewer inputs, right? If you have fewer inputs, you're going to have fewer outputs.
好的，今天我们先来讨论一下我们正走向全球经济严重衰退的这一趋势，其次，我会谈谈私人信贷，因为这经常出现在新闻中。好的，先从全球经济衰退开始。我们先从高层次来解释一下，什么是经济衰退？经济衰退基本上就是经济负增长。也就是说，你今年生产的商品和服务比去年少。而导致这种情况的一个简单方法就是减少投入。如果你投入减少，那么产出自然也会减少。
So if you look at this chart right now, you can see that the straight up removes is basically shut before the war. You had many ships transiting today, very few, mostly Iranian and Chinese ships are going through. Now, what usually transits through the short of a move? It's what you would expect a bunch of oil, gas, fertilizer and as many people are noting things like helium as well, which guitar produces a lot. So now that you have the straight up moves shut, a lot of fewer materials are going out to the world.
如果你现在看这张图表，你会发现直布罗陀海峡在战争前基本上已经关闭。过去有很多船只穿越，现在只有很少的船，大多数是伊朗和中国的船只在通过。通常通过海峡的是什么呢？正如你所想的，有大量的石油、天然气、化肥，还有很多人提到的氦气，卡塔尔生产很多这些东西。所以现在直布罗陀海峡关闭了，流向世界的物资也大大减少。
So factories are fewer inputs and so there's just going to be fewer stuff produced, right? So we're heading into a global recession. Now depending on how long this is going to go on and whether or not the loss in production capacity is permanent, this could become a very, very severe recession. If you look at energy prices looking at the futures curve for Brent Crude, you can see that over the past few weeks, even longer-dative futures are shifting higher. That's the market becoming concerned and increasingly pricing in the possibility that this oil shock could last for some time.
因此，工厂的投入减少，这将导致产品的生产量减少，对吧？所以我们正面临全球经济衰退。现在，根据这种情况持续的时间长短，以及生产能力的损失是否是永久的，这可能会演变成非常严重的衰退。如果你查看布伦特原油的期货价格曲线，你会发现过去几周以来，即使是长期合约的价格也在上涨。这表明市场对这次石油冲击可能会持续一段时间感到担忧，并开始在价格中反映这种可能性。
So why aren't ships transiting through the short of a move? As we talked about last week, part of it was due to insurance coverage. No one wants to be going through this without their cargo in short. But that looks like it's mostly been taken care of in part due to support from the Trump administration. So why aren't ships going through? Let's hear it from the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.
那么，为什么船只没有通过这个捷径航行呢？正如我们上周所讨论的，其中一部分原因是保险问题。没有人希望在没有保险保障的情况下运输货物。不过，这看起来基本上已经得到了解决，部分原因是特朗普政府的支持。那么，为什么船只还没有通过呢？让我们听听战争部长彼得·赫格塞斯的说法。现在唯一阻碍在海峡通航的是伊朗向船只开火。如果伊朗不这样做，海峡是可以通航的。
So as Pete is saying, no one wants to go through because the one wants to die. So if you're riding a giant oil tank or a giant natural gas carrier, well, you know, you're basically have some very combustible cargo. If you hit a mine, if you hit by a drone, by Iranian missile, by a war, artillery, you're going to, your ship is going to blow up and you were going to die. And that's kind of a downer.
正如皮特所说，没有人想因为想要死亡而去冒险。如果你在驾驶一艘巨大的油轮或者天然气运输船，那么你船上基本上装载着非常易燃的货物。如果你的船碰到了水雷，被无人机、伊朗导弹或战争炮火击中，那么你的船会爆炸，你也会有生命危险。这是很让人沮丧的。
So you have a lot of ships that are just kind of stuck there in the Gulf, not wanting to leave. And a lot of ships not going through, not going inbound because no one wants to die. So the straight up our moves is going to be closed de facto until the war is over. So ultimately, this is going to be a question as to just how long the work can go on. Now last week, we did have some sound from the Trump administration saying that, hey, maybe they would like to climb down the war zone with silver and so forth.
所以，现在在海湾有很多船只停在那里，不愿意离开。而且很多船只不再通过，也不愿驶入，因为没有人想冒生命危险。实际上，航道会被关闭，直到战争结束。因此，最终问题在于战争还要持续多久。上周，特朗普政府表示，他们可能希望用银子等方式平息战争。
But as we also mentioned last week, he's not the one driving it. There are three people at the table and it's not all about him. So it really does seem like the Trump administration was totally unprepared for this outcome. Last week, remember, he was talking about taking out the leadership, the people revolting, having a big revolution, a big regime change. And he did not even fill up the, the SPR heading into this.
但正如我们上周提到的，他并不是主导这件事的人。桌上有三个人，这件事并不全围绕着他。因此，这确实让人觉得特朗普政府对这个结果完全没有准备。回想上周，他在谈论要推翻领导层，民众起义，进行一场大革命，一场大的政权更迭。但他甚至没有在这之前补充战略石油储备（SPR）。
So it really seemed like he was totally unprepared for this. And now reporting last week shows that, yes, actually, the administration dismissed his possibility. Basically, they did not plan for the closure of the straight up a moves, which is what the Iranians have been threatening for decades and decades and decades. It's basically unbelievable. And in fact, the military side, General Kane, who by all counts is an outstanding general, was actually leaking to the press aggressively ahead heading into this operation, trying to discourage the administration from doing this.
看起来他对这件事情完全没有准备好。上周的报道显示，确实如此，政府方面忽视了他的可能性。他们基本上没有为关闭直通航线做计划，而这正是伊朗几十年来一直威胁要做的事情。这简直让人难以置信。实际上，军方的凯恩将军，据说是一位杰出的将军，在这次行动进行前，他积极向媒体泄露信息，试图阻止政府这样做。
But at the end of the day, it's not his call to make. This is a decision by the foreign policy establishment, a political decision. And according to Trump, it's basically, you know, Jared Kushner, Steve Woodcoff, and Pete Tetset and himself calling the shots and they ignored all the warnings from the military establishment. And they just went into this totally unprepared and are totally flailing.
但归根结底，这不是他说了算的。这是一个由外交政策机构做出的政治决定。而据特朗普所说，基本上是由贾里德·库什纳、史蒂夫·伍德克夫、皮特·特塞特和他本人做主，他们无视军事机构的所有警告，全然没有准备就贸然行动，现在完全陷入了混乱。
Honestly, it's so unbelievable that you actually have people on Twitter giving these huge galaxy brain 3D chest takes. But this is some kind of huge global conflict with China. There's playing a grand strategy. But guys, guys, guys, at the end of the day, who's benefiting here, right? Russia was not able to sell a lot of oil. Now Trump is giving waivers to India to buy Russian oil. Russia continues to pump. They're making a lot more money than they did before. Iran selling more oil today than they did before, selling it to China, obviously. And it looks like, you know, the US is removing military equipment from South Korea and sending it to the Middle East. You know, I'm guessing that military equipment being sent away is beneficial to North Korea and to China. And of course, US allies and the Gulf and Korea are feeling that they are not being protected, that this security guarantee that the US was offering doesn't seem to be very good.
老实说，真不敢相信在 Twitter 上真的有人会发出这种高深莫测的 “银河大脑” 式的 3D 批评，仿佛这是一场与中国之间的全球大冲突，有人在玩一种宏伟的战略游戏。但各位，到底是谁从中受益呢？俄罗斯之前卖不出太多石油，现在特朗普允许印度购买俄罗斯石油，俄罗斯继续生产，他们现在赚到的钱比以前多了很多。伊朗也在今天卖出比以前更多的石油，主要卖给了中国。而且看起来，美国正从韩国撤走军事装备，转而把装备运到中东。我猜这些被运走的装备可能对北韩和中国有利。当然，美国的盟友以及海湾国家和韩国都感觉自己没有受到保护，美国提供的安全保障似乎不怎么牢靠。
So this is a total disaster for US foreign policy and for the global economy. So there is no 3D chest. If you look at the history, right? So we have Vietnam War. 60,000 US soldiers died, ultimately, defeated by a bunch of people living in grass huts. We had the Iraq invasion, really, really big disasters. Trollions of dollars spent. Don't know what we got out of it. You got Afghanistan and so forth. So the inevitable conclusion is that the foreign policy establishment is really, really stupid. And they got us into this war totally unprepared again. So any 3D chest assumption to that, that's very obviously, I think, not true.
这对美国的外交政策和全球经济来说完全是一场灾难。没有什么高深莫测的策略可言。如果你回顾历史，你会发现我们有过越南战争，6万名美国士兵阵亡，最后被住在草棚里的人民打败。我们还有伊拉克战争，真是一场极大的灾难，花费了数万亿美元，但我们不知道从中得到了什么。还有阿富汗等。所以不可避免的结论就是，外交政策决策层真的非常愚蠢，他们又一次让我们毫无准备地卷入战争。因此，任何有关高深策略的猜测显然都是不真实的。
So if it's not off the Trump, who is it up to? So again, the second player, of course, is Israel. Now it doesn't seem like they are giving up. Again, like we mentioned before, being able to have regime change, or bomb Iran is Prime Minister Naniye, who's a dream of 40 years. And polling shows that Israeli support for the war is very strong. It's quite weak in the US, but it's very strong in Israel. So it doesn't seem like they want to give up either. The last player, of course, is Iran. So Iran doesn't seem like they want to give up either. So the new Ayatollah, I guess, community junior, he did not make a televised statement. Apparently, there are some indications that maybe he's injured, but he did give a written statement.
所以，如果不是由特朗普来决定，那是谁来决定呢？当然，第二个角色是以色列。目前看起来以色列也不想放弃。如我们之前所提到的，能够实现政权更迭或轰炸伊朗，一直是总理纳尼亚40年的梦想。民调显示，以色列对这场战争的支持非常强烈。而在美国，这种支持相对较弱，但在以色列却非常强劲。所以，他们似乎也不打算放弃。最后一个角色当然是伊朗。伊朗看起来也不想放弃。据说新的阿亚图拉，也就是所谓的“小社群”，并没有发表电视讲话。据传有迹象表明他可能受了伤，但他确实发表了一份书面声明。
And it's very clear, right? He wants to close the trigger from Mous. And he potentially opened up new fronts, and what he wants is security guarantees that the US will not attack them just again. So for the past year, again, last year, Israel and the US attacked Iran. It's 12-day war. It's over. And then a couple weeks ago, they attacked them again. So Iran doesn't like to be attacked. They want to feel secure. They're demanding that the US relinquish its bases in the Gulf. So that's a pretty big demand. Don't know if they'll get it. But that's what they want.
这段话表达的意思是：很显然，他希望关闭来自穆斯的威胁。同时，他可能又开辟了新的战线，而他想要的是确保美国不会再次攻击他们。在过去的一年，去年，以色列和美国攻击了伊朗，进行了为期12天的战争，战争结束。然而，几周前，他们又再度攻击伊朗。伊朗不希望受到攻击，他们想要安全保障。他们要求美国撤回在海湾的基地。这是一个非常大的要求，不确定他们是否能实现，但这是他们所希望的。
And actually, there's this kind of funny propaganda video put out. That was actually featured in the financial times about Iran's strategy here. Let me play a little bit. And as you can see, their strategy is basically to squeeze oil prices to the moon, implode the global economy, implode the Arab states who at the moment are allied with the US to try to get what they want. And honestly, this is a very powerful strategy. It's basically the strain strategy that China used against the US during the US China trade war.
实际上，有一个关于伊朗战略的有趣宣传视频。这个视频曾在《金融时报》报道过。让我播放一小段。正如你所见，他们的策略基本上是推动油价飙升，冲击全球经济，并冲击当前与美国结盟的阿拉伯国家，以此来达到他们的目的。老实说，这是一个非常有力的策略，这基本上就是中国在中美贸易战期间对美国使用的压力策略。
So the US put tariffs on China. China basically stopped shipping of rare earths. That was a severe choke point for the US. Without rare earths, you really can't produce missiles. You really can't even produce cars. So we really would have destroyed the US economy. So at the end of the day, Trump kept looking for an off-ramp, got it, and now he's going to go hang out with the person she and China next month. So that was able to get the US to back down. Iran is doing the same thing. They have this chokehold on the global oil supply and among others, and they're using it.
所以美国对中国加征了关税。中国基本上停止了稀土的出口。这对美国来说是一个严重的瓶颈。没有稀土，就无法生产导弹，甚至连汽车都生产不了。所以这真的会摧毁美国经济。最终，特朗普不断寻找解决办法，并找到了。下个月，他将与习近平及中国方面会面。这促使美国让步。伊朗也在做类似的事情。他们对全球石油供应有一定的控制力，并正在利用这种优势。
And if this continues, you could see oil, some people think it, if you go up to 200, so Rory Johnson, very good independent oil analyst, is quite concerned about this. This is something else that's worth noting that as we move into this very politicized atmosphere, it's possible that a lot of the big banks and other big establishment research houses may not be able to give you the straight story. Remember that time where there was a seminalist at a big bank writing about the sale America trade, and he actually got to talk down from, from, from, I believe, Secretary Besson.
如果这种情况继续下去，油价可能会上涨，有些人甚至认为可以涨到200（美元）。独立石油分析师Rory Johnson对此非常担忧。此外，值得注意的是，由于当前政治环境非常敏感，大型银行和其他大型金融研究机构可能无法提供准确的信息。还记得那次有一位大型银行的分析师写了关于"出售美国"交易的文章，他实际上被政府官员（我记得是国务卿Besson）劝说撤稿的事情吗？
So we are in a period of censorship, and there's going to be a lot of misinformation outside. So I think I highly value independent voices that I get on Twitter, for example. Now with oil going that high, you are definitely going to have huge, huge problems in the global economy. In the US, I think we are the large producer of oil. You know, it's going to be tough for us. We are relatively wealthy country. People will pay more at the gas pump. But for money poor countries, it's going to be a catastrophe. You add on to that higher fertilizer prices that's going to cause food inflation. You know, you could have easily have severe, severe civil disorder in some of the poor countries. If you look at this chart here, you can see that a lot of the people who import fertilizer are these poor countries that are dependent upon a Gulf source fertilizer.
所以我们现在处于一个审查的时期，外面会有很多错误信息传播。因此，我非常重视在像推特这样的平台上获取的独立声音。现在油价如此之高，全球经济肯定会遇到巨大的问题。在美国，我认为我们是石油的大生产国。对我们来说也会很艰难，虽然我们是相对富裕的国家，人们会在加油站支付更多。但对于缺乏资金的国家来说，这将是一场灾难。再加上化肥价格上涨，将导致食品价格膨胀。你知道，这可能会在一些贫困国家引发严重的社会动荡。如果你看这张图表，你会看到很多进口化肥的都是依赖海湾地区化肥的贫穷国家。
Some people are making the comment that helium is a very important industrial input into themes like semiconductors. I don't know. Maybe that impacts the production of chips, which of course is a very important part of the AI trade going on. So this is definitely a huge catastrophe. And if it's not resolved very soon, you could even have permanent, permanent supply shocks. So as we've just discussed last week, a lot of these plants, as after the storage is maxed out, they have to turn off production, takes a while to turn it back on. Same thing for refining these as well. Once refining these are not getting crude inputs, maybe they turn off and turn them back on it, it takes time as well.
有些人评论说，氦气是半导体等主题中非常重要的工业投入。我不太确定。但也许这会影响芯片的生产，而芯片当然是当前人工智能产业中的一个重要部分。所以，这确实是一个巨大的灾难。如果问题不能很快解决，可能会导致永久性的供应冲击。正如我们上周所讨论的，一旦储存达到上限，许多工厂就必须停止生产，而重新启动需要时间。同样，这也适用于精炼厂。若精炼厂无法获得原料，可能会停产，重新启动也需要时间。
So the US is strategy right now. It's basically just escalation, escalation, escalation. They're just going to keep bombing and bombing and bombing. And we have news last week that the president did this huge, huge operation of bombing. But bombing really doesn't win these wars, right? There's no, there's no end to this. This is the same thing we did in Vietnam. You keep bombing. You win every engagement. Use napalm. You blow everyone up. But at the end of the day, you can't end the war that way. You have people all over along the huge coastline that can easily launch drones or whatnot to prevent shipping. They can just hit one vessel every now and then and that'll be enough to scare everyone. So the only solution that I can see is honestly, you can go on a full-on ground invasion and try to take it over.
所以美国目前的策略就是升级、升级、再升级。他们会不停地进行轰炸。上周有消息说，总统发动了一次大型的轰炸行动。但实际上，光靠轰炸并不能赢得这些战争，对吧？这样的方式没有尽头。这跟我们在越南时做的一样：不停轰炸，每次作战都赢，用凝固汽油弹，把一切都炸毁。但最终，这并不能结束战争。因为在漫长的海岸线上，各地的人都可以很容易地发射无人机或者其他武器来妨碍航运。他们偶尔袭击一下船只，就足以让所有人感到恐慌。所以在我看来，唯一的解决办法是全面进行地面入侵，试图占领它。
And there is reports that maybe the US is authorizing some Marines to go through and maybe Sushiforce or something like that. I think that's quite difficult. Iran is a huge country. There's 97 million people there. And this is something they've been preparing for some time. You can go nuclear, try to just turn the whole thing into Gaza and maybe get a Hiroshima solution. That's not a popular way to do things, but it is a potential option. And the last I think is that maybe Iran actually does win. Maybe they could get the US to back down or maybe they eventually get a nuclear weapon. So Iran has the raw materials, but by many accounts, intelligence accounts from the US that they don't have a weapon.
有报道称，美国可能会授权一些海军陆战队员进行行动，可能是类似 "Sushiforce" 这样的任务。我认为这非常困难。伊朗是一个大国，人口有9700万，他们已经为此准备了一段时间。你可以选择核打击，把一切变成像加沙一样的战争区域，甚至考虑使用像广岛那样的解决方案。虽然这不是一个受欢迎的做法，但确实是一种可能的选择。最后，我认为伊朗实际上可能会取得胜利。他们可能会让美国退让，或者最终获得核武器。虽然伊朗拥有原材料，但根据美国的多方情报，他们还没有核武器。
And part of the reason they don't have a weapon was because the previous IOTola forbid it. And they were also afraid that if they got a weapon, then the US and Israel would start to attack them. But now things are a little bit different. They have a new IOTola. We don't know how he thinks about this. And also, well, he's already under attack and the regime is a threat right now. So they basically have nothing to lose. And for them, maybe the best option is, Russian speaking, to try to get a nuke as far as as soon as possible, become like North Korea and just have that as a deterrent. So a nuke is basically ancient technology, right? The US had it in the 1940s and think about how much technology has advanced between then and now.
他们之所以没有武器部分原因是因为之前的最高领袖禁止了。而且他们也担心，如果他们拥有武器，美国和以色列会开始攻击他们。但现在情况有些不同。他们有了一位新的最高领袖。我们不知道他对这件事的看法。此外，他已经遭到攻击，政权目前受到威胁，所以他们基本上无所顾忌。对他们来说，也许最好的选择就是尽快获得核武器，像朝鲜一样，用它作为一种威慑手段。核武器实际上是很久以前的技术，对吧？美国在上世纪40年代就拥有了核武器，想想从那时到现在技术已经发展了多少。
Like, your cell phone today is faster than the fastest computers back then. So from an engineering, it's more of an engineering problem. And maybe they get help from other countries. But it's really obvious that if they wanted one, they could get one. Don't know how long it will take. But if they had one, maybe that's a solution, whereas you would have mutually extort destruction. So as this blockade continues to go, you can see the immediate impact is not just higher or prices, but higher interest rates as well. The market is pricing in increasing inflation concerns. Now this is pretty obvious in a place like the Eurozone, where you have a one-mandate central bank, whereas you just make only cares about inflation.
就像今天的手机比过去最快的电脑还要快一样。 所以从工程学的角度来看，这更像是一个工程问题。 也许他们会从其他国家得到帮助。 但非常明显的是，如果他们想要一个，他们是可以得到的。 不知道这需要多长时间。 但如果他们有的话，也许这就是一个解决方案，通过互相威慑破坏来达到和平。 所以随着封锁的继续，你可以看到不仅价格上涨，还带来了更高的利率。 市场正在反映对通胀上升的担忧。在像欧元区这样的地方，这一点非常明显，因为那里有一个以控制通胀为唯一任务的中央银行。
As gas prices go up, and the Europe, of course, was dependent upon Russian gas, then became dependent upon US and Middle Eastern gas. And of course, in some places, turned off their nuclear reactors. They're in some big trouble right now. And so this could really spike their energy prices. Market is not pricing in rate hikes from the ECB in a few months. And maybe that could happen depending on how long this energy shock happens. For the Fed though, it's a lot harder. Now the Fed, the market is basically pricing out rate cuts. They were pricing in a few cuts. This is a lot harder call, because at the one hand, the Fed is a dual-mandate central bank. You got full employment and price stability. So you can't just look at inflation.
随着汽油价格上涨，欧洲本来依赖俄罗斯的天然气，现在转而依赖美国和中东的天然气。当然，在某些地方，他们关闭了核反应堆，现在面临很大困难。因此，这可能会导致他们的能源价格大幅上涨。市场暂时没有考虑欧洲央行在未来几个月加息的可能性，而这可能会根据能源危机持续的时间而发生变化。然而，美联储的情况则更加复杂。市场基本上已经不再预期美联储会降息，之前还预计有几次降息的可能性。这是一个更难的决定，因为美联储有双重任务：实现充分就业和价格稳定，因此不能只关注通货膨胀。
And secondly, the standard central banking operating playbook is to look at these negative supply shocks as transitory. So you look through them. So if you are operating just from the standard playbook, this should not impact how you conduct monetary policy. The one rinco to that, of course, is that we've had too many supply shocks over the past few years. There's COVID, there's tariffs and so forth. So they're coming to time where it may not be possible for them to look through this. And that's going to come down to individual judgment. The market pricing is in part what the market thinks the economic conditions will be. And partially how they think the Fed will react to it.
其次，中央银行的标准操作手册通常将这些负面供应冲击视为暂时性的。因此，你可以忽略它们。如果你仅仅依据标准手册进行操作，这不应该影响你如何实施货币政策。当然，有一个例外，那就是过去几年中，我们经历了太多的供应冲击，比如新冠疫情、关税等。因此，可能会到来一个时刻，无法再忽略这些冲击。这将依赖于个人的判断。市场定价部分反映了市场对经济状况的预期，同时也反映了他们认为美联储将如何应对这些情况。
We're at a time where the Fed is also changing themselves. We would have a new Fed chair. And who knows? Maybe Tripal will resign, so you get another Fed person on the board as well. So whatever it's pricing in right now, it's going to be wrong. And it's going to be hard to have a very good pricing on this. If I had to bet though, I think the market is way too hawkish right now. It's much more likely, in my view, that we would have a new Fed that is inclined to interpret things to be more dovish. And they have enough support to do that because, of course, you look through supply shocks. And of course, we have a very obviously weakening labor market and are very likely to be hitting into a global recession.
我们正处于一个美联储自身也在发生变化的时期。我们将迎来一位新的美联储主席。而且，谁知道呢？也许Tripal会辞职，这样委员会中也会有另一个新的美联储成员。所以，无论现在市场是如何定价的，很可能都是不准确的。这种情况下，要做到一个非常精准的定价是很困难的。不过如果要我下注的话，我认为现在市场的预期过于鹰派了。在我看来，更有可能的是，新一届美联储倾向于以更鸽派的方式来解读局势。而且，他们有足够的支持来这样做，因为显然我们经历了供应冲击。而且，我们的劳动力市场显然在走弱，并且很可能正步入全球衰退。
So let's just see how this goes. It really has potential to be a disaster. I think people are looking at the stock market and thinking all as well. A lot of people have always been fading stuff like this. But part of this is just support having to op-ex. And I get the sense is a little bit like radiation damage. So the damage is already there, but you just don't feel it. Now this oil shock, the street of her mousse closure is a really big deal. So hopefully, let's hope that this ends soon if not, things are going to get really bad.
让我们看看会有什么结果。这件事情确实有可能变成一场灾难。我认为人们看到股市表现良好，可能会觉得一切都还好。一直以来，有很多人对此类情况都持怀疑态度。不过，部分原因只是因为有操作到期的支撑。我感觉这有点像辐射损伤——损害已经发生了，但你却感受不到。现在这次石油危机，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，是一个非常严重的问题。希望这件事能尽快结束，否则情况会变得非常糟糕。
All right, the second thing I want to talk about is, of course, private credit. Now, private credit has been in the headlines over a lot before freaking out because, well, for good reason, actually. So on the one hand, you see the private credit sponsors. Their stock prices have declined significantly, right? Look at companies like Aries. And you also hear all sorts of headlines about investors in private credit funds trying to withdraw. So it seemed like we're having a little bit of a run on the private credit funds.
好的，我想谈的第二件事是私人信贷。最近，私人信贷频频出现在新闻中，这确实是有原因的。一方面，你会看到私人信贷赞助商的股价大幅下跌，比如像Aries这样的公司。而且，你也会听到各种关于私人信贷基金投资者试图撤资的新闻。所以看起来，我们似乎正面临着私人信贷基金的一些挤兑情况。
So all of this began, I think, in large part due to the AI stuff. So a lot of the private credit, also high level private credit is basically a shadow bank. They borrow from investors and they lend to middle market companies. After the great financial crisis, there was a lot of regulations that limited the lending capabilities of commercial banks. So the riskier companies were kind of squeezed out. And so the private credit funds step in to fill that gap. They have less regulation, higher risk tolerances.
我认为，这一切很大程度上是由于人工智能的发展而开始的。很多私人信贷，尤其是高端私人信贷，实际上就是一种影子银行。他们从投资者那里借钱，然后贷给中型市场的公司。在金融危机之后，出台了许多限制商业银行贷款能力的法规，导致风险较高的公司被挤出了传统银行系统。于是，私人信贷基金介入，填补了这一空白。它们受到的监管较少，能够承受更高的风险。
And we had a pretty benign market we could not have conditions for some time. So private credit funds were doing very well. Some of the publicly traded ones that are called BDCs. They were offering investors yields of over 10%. So it was a pretty good business and everyone poured into it. Now it's a shadow bank because it's doing this bank lack activity, but it's not actually a legally a bank. And also there's less likelihood for it to run in a bank. Your liabilities are mostly demand deposits so people can go in withdraw deposits anytime they want.
我们多年来处于一个相对温和的市场环境，因此私募信贷基金表现得非常不错。一些被称为商业发展公司（BDC）的上市公司，也提供了超过10%的投资收益率。所以这曾是一个非常好的行业，吸引了大量投资者。现在这些被称为影子银行，因为它们进行类似银行的活动，但实际上并不是合法意义上的银行。此外，这类机构比较不容易出现银行挤兑的风险，因为它们的负债主要不是即期存款，投资者不能随时提取资金。
And private credit, it's more longer term money. It's locked up, say quarterly or so forth. So there's less of a likelihood of a run, but it's still possible. So there's a lot of reports that investors are trying to redeem. They're money out of the funds. It's capped at 5%. Some of the sponsors are waving that, letting people draw out more. But when you want to draw out, if you want to get your money out, but you can't, you're cut by these gates, you cut a panic, right? Because you're seeing that maybe AI maybe is disrupting a lot of the software businesses that these funds lent to and you're worried that maybe you might have some losses. So there is kind of a panic there.
私人信贷是一种较长期的资金，资金通常是锁定的，比如按季度解锁，所以发生挤兑的可能性较小，但仍然是有可能的。目前有很多报告显示，投资者正在尝试赎回他们在基金中的资金，赎回比例被限制在5%。一些基金的管理者放宽了这一限制，允许投资者提取更多资金。然而，当你想取出你的资金却受到限额的限制时，你可能会感到恐慌。尤其是在看到人工智能可能正在颠覆这些基金曾经借贷给的软件行业时，你可能会担心自己的投资会出现损失。因此，这种情况下可能会引发一些恐慌情绪。
I don't really worry about this because at the end of day, the private credit world is just say 1.5 trillion or something like that. It sounds big, but it's kind of small in the financial system. And the people who are exposed, well, they're largely large institutional investors who are able to bear this loss. It doesn't really touch upon the core banking system.
我对此并不太担心，因为归根结底，私募信贷市场的规模大约是1.5万亿美元左右。听起来数字很大，但在整个金融体系中其实算小的。而且，主要受其影响的是大型机构投资者，他们有能力承受这样的损失。这并不会真正影响到核心银行系统。
Now some of the retail exposed products, they're not finance, even in debt, they're finance with equity, right? That's what publicly traded BDC's are. So when you're funded in equity, it's really quite elastic because you don't really face these redemption problems. The losses that you suffer just kind of show up in lower equity prices. So that's kind of some elasticity there that absorbs it.
现在，一些与零售相关的产品并不是通过债务融资，而是通过股票融资的，对吧？这就是上市的商业发展公司（BDC）的运作方式。所以，当资金来源是股票时，其实是相当有弹性的，因为你不必面临赎回的问题。你遭受的损失只是体现在较低的股票价格上。这就体现了一种吸收损失的弹性。
So it does generate a lot of bad headlines and you do have some linkages between the private credit funds and the commercial banks. Over the past few years, the commercial banks have lent a lot to what's called a non-bank deposit, non-bank financial institutions. It's not just private credit funds, it's private equity funds, dealers, it's all sorts of stuff. It's even private mortgage companies. It's a whole lot of stuff.
近年来，商业银行大量借款给所谓的非银行存款机构和非银行金融机构。这不仅仅包括私人信贷基金，还涉及到私募股权基金、交易商，甚至私人抵押贷款公司等各种机构。因此，这确实引发了很多负面新闻，并且私人信贷基金与商业银行之间也存在一定联系。
Some of it is private credit, but honestly, it's a small piece of the lending portfolio of the private banks. And also, it tends to be highly secure. So I don't think there's going to be much contagion into the banking system. And at the end of the day, this is just a small part of the US financial system. So we're going to be okay.
其中一部分是私人信贷，但坦率地说，这只是私人银行贷款组合中的一小部分。而且，这部分通常是高度安全的。因此，我认为不会对银行系统造成太大影响。总的来说，这只是美国金融系统的一小部分，所以我们没事的。
This week is a Fed meeting. My expectation is, obviously, there's not going to be any change. We're going to have the sense. I think Waller will actually be sent. No one is very good at predicting this war. So this is what happens to interest rates. It's outside of the Fed's hands right now.
本周有一个美联储会议。我预计显然不会有任何变化。我们会有这样的感觉。我认为沃勒实际上会被派遣。没有人能很好地预测这场战争。所以利率的变化是在美联储的控制之外。
All right. But I'll still be back to give you my thoughts. Talk to you all Wednesday.
好的。不过我还是会回来告诉你我的想法。星期三再和大家聊。