Daily Market Coverage Mar. 24, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET) | Yahoo Finance
发布时间 2026-03-24 23:08:57 来源
All right, welcome to Yahoo! Finance is a morning brief on this Tuesday, March 24th. I am Miles Udland. That is Josh Schaefer, newsletter editor over at Barons, Julie Heimann in Houston on assignments. Let's take a look at where futures are trading here about a half hour until the open on this Tuesday and we're lower down about 6-10th of 1%. We sat here yesterday, Josh, and the last thing I asked you with the market or futures at that point up about 2%. I said, with the market clothes on Monday, green or red, and you said red.
好的，欢迎来到雅虎财经的星期二早间简报，今天是3月24日。我是迈尔斯·厄德兰。这位是巴伦专栏编辑乔希·谢弗，朱莉·海曼在休斯顿执行任务。距离今天开盘还有大约半小时，让我们来看看期货市场的走势。目前下跌了约0.6%。昨天我们坐在这里，我问乔希，市场或期货当时上涨大约2%。我问，周一收盘后市场是涨（绿色）还是跌（红色），你说是跌（红色）。
Now the market was up about a percent and a half yesterday, but you were telling me just before we started that actually you were right. If you would like to share that with the class on why you were correct that it was a red clothes when the S&P gained 1.2%. So I was wrong, of course. But I think really what I was getting at Miles was I wouldn't have been a buyer at the open yesterday or really a buyer throughout the day. I felt like there was a good chance stocks were going to close at their lows of the day.
昨天市场上涨了约1.5%，但就在我们开始之前，你告诉我，你之前的预测是正确的。虽然标普指数上涨了1.2%，但你认为市场最终会以“红盘”（下跌）收尾。如果你愿意，可以跟大家分享一下为什么你认为自己是对的。我当然错了。但我真正想表达的是，昨天市场开盘时或全天时，我都不建议买入。我感觉股票很有可能会在当天最低点收盘。
Which day eventually did and if you walked sort of the rally that was throughout the day. It just was kind of a casual move lower throughout most of the session. And I think you're seeing that reflected in futures right now, which is basically I would define this market right now as sort of a what do we do? What do we do market? Maybe I do nothing market. It seems like there's not a lot of trust in the headlines that we actually got yesterday morning that this escalation is fully over that the war is winding down.
哪一天最终到来以及如果你走过当天的集会，几乎整天都是一种随意的下跌。我认为目前期货市场也反映了这一点，我会把这个市场定义为一种“我们该怎么办？”的状态，也可能是“什么都不做”的市场。看起来大家对昨天早上得到的新闻缺乏信任，因为这些头条说冲突完全结束、战争正在收尾。
And so I think when you sit back as an investor like how much did which we talked about really for almost all of 25 minutes yesterday, but how much did the story change from Friday to Monday. And I think the longer it settles in, investors are kind of deciding maybe the story hasn't changed that much yet. And that's sort of where we sit here from at least how I feel from my seat on Tuesday more. You know, I think you should have leaned into that a little bit more.
我认为，作为投资者，当你反思时，比如我们昨天花了将近25分钟讨论的事情，其实从星期五到星期一，这个故事到底改变了多少。我觉得随着时间的推移，投资者逐渐意识到，也许这个故事并没有改变那么多。这大概就是我们目前的情况，至少从我周二的角度来看是这样的。我认为你应该更加深入地考虑这个问题。
I think you could have taken more credit or spun it a little more tightly that you were right because well, you're just like, okay, it's a do nothing market. I think it's a little bit worse than that. I mean, again, when we were chatting on Friday and over the weekend about like, okay, what are we going to do Monday Tuesday? The kind of meta question was like, are we bearish enough? Yeah. And we both were like, probably not, right?
我认为你本可以更大胆地说自己是对的，因为你只是简单地说这是一个无所作为的市场。我觉得情况比这更糟。当我们在星期五和周末聊到星期一、星期二该做什么时，讨论的核心问题是：我们是不是还不够看空市场？是的，我们都觉得，没错，我们可能确实不够看空，对吗？
Right. And now again, the S&P is what? For seven percent off all time highs. Like we haven't taken that big of a dip. Things look a little bit more constructive than they did on Friday. We're sitting here yesterday talking with 200 day moving average. That seems like a little bit less. Well, I mean, we're still right in that ballpark. So that still kind of is the battle line. But as you mentioned, that fade all day yesterday, people did do something.
好的。那么现在，标准普尔指数（S&P）距离历史最高点大约有百分之七的差距。这表明它并没有出现太大的下跌。相比周五，现在的情况看起来稍微乐观一些。昨天我们在讨论200日移动平均线时，这个差距似乎显得没那么大。也就是说，我们仍然在那个范围内徘徊。这仍旧是一个重要的“战线”。不过，正如你所提到的，昨天全天的下跌，确实有人采取了一些行动。
They decided to not continue following through with whatever, you know, whatever buying signals are coming in earlier in the day. And so it does feel like there's a general lack of enthusiasm for the overall market. And I'm not 100% convinced that all of that is geopolitical. I think one thing that I was looking at that, you know, it was like, okay, you know, what are the possible like triggers or things people are looking at?
他们决定不再继续关注那些在当天早些时候出现的购买信号。因此，整个市场的热情似乎普遍不足。我并不完全相信这完全是由地缘政治因素造成的。我在思考的一个问题是，是什么可能触发了这一现象，或者人们到底在关注什么。
We haven't discussed yet, which is a calendar. Yeah. We're a week out from the end of the first quarter. And now we can get into like real-gered blickery territory around flows and squaring up portfolios. And just like, what do you want? And when you're closing out your statements, you're an institutional investor or Q1, what do you want a couple things to look like? Returns, which you know, you can't fully control, but you can, you know, window dress or try to manage some of that.
我们还没有讨论过，这就像一份日历。是的，现在距离第一季度结束还有一周时间。我们可以开始认真讨论资金流动和组合调整等话题。在你作为一个机构投资者准备结束第一季度报告时，你希望有哪些方面的表现？虽然你不能完全控制回报，但你可以在某种程度上进行调整或管理。
And then two, what is actually in the portfolio at that point in time. And then three, what's, you know, what's the leverage or what's the, what's the gross, let's say, right? Are you 105% long? Are you 99% long? Do you want to go from 130 long to 110? I mean, this is sort of very like insular stuff for investment decisions. But I think that this, all these factors in what's been a pretty messy start to the year are why we see a lot of headlines and none of them feels like the answer yet.
然后，第二点是，当时投资组合里究竟有什么。第三点是，你知道的，就是杠杆情况或者总体来说的状况，比如说，您的多头仓位是105%吗？是99%吗？您想从130%的多头仓位降到110%吗？我的意思是，这些都是投资决策中非常内在的东西。但我认为，这些因素加上今年年初的混乱局面，就是为什么我们看到很多新闻头条，但没有一个能真正解决问题。
Because there's a lot of money management problems, I guess I would say. Maybe we'll, so would you take that then? So we're going to be down for the quarter, right? That for the first. Most likely. Most likely. Most likely. You're probably going to be down. Yeah. I would want to be down. Yeah. The index is probably going to be down. So I would wonder if it's a sell your losers into the end of the quarter then is that sort of what you're getting at to some extent?
由于出现了许多资金管理问题，我猜我会这样说。也许我们会这样做，那么你能接受这个说法吗？因此，我们这个季度的表现将会下降，对吗？这可能性很大，很有可能。也许你会下滑。我一定想表现下滑。指数可能也会下降。所以我想知道这是否意味着在季度结束时要卖掉亏损的股票，这是不是你有点想表达的意思呢？
Well, you could do it a couple of ways, right? You could sell the losers. I mean, I don't want to go in all the particulars of like, you know, the tax. That's a nice name. Yeah. Or, you know, fun, let's go. I think it's just like, again, if you're going to offer an update on where you stand at the end of the quarter, what do you want to be in that? So do you want to say, like, we came in with a view that the market was going to do this in January and we were surprised by that. Do you want to send that letter out, you know, mid-April and say, well, do you upload the political events overtook our strategy? Do you want to say, actually, we doubled down on software because we're super excited about, you know, kind of the way that these companies, the way the winners in software can leverage AI going forward.
你可以有几种方法来处理这个，对吧？你可以卖掉那些亏损的投资。我不想详细讨论像税务之类的细节，那是个不错的名字。或者，我们可以用一种比较有趣的方法。我觉得，如果你要在季度末更新情况，你想在其中包含什么内容呢？比如，你想说我们在一月份进场时认为市场会这样发展，但结果让我们很意外。你打算在四月中旬发出这样的信函吗？例如，政治事件改变了我们的策略。或者你想说，我们加码投资了软件，因为我们对这些公司，特别是那些在软件领域的赢家如何利用人工智能的发展感到非常兴奋。
You think this is a great value. Like, those are the, like, you reverse engineering what you want to communicate to your investors. But I think a lot of that is going to lead to folks looking around today, tomorrow, through the next several days, and just trying to think like, how, if at all do I need to change the portfolio near term, and then that gets to, you know, some of the winners, the losers, and that, I think, shapes the market action as much as, you know, the next incremental headline on what's happening in Iran. Can I give you my picks for why I think stocks are going to close a week lower now? Okay, there you go. Great. Great. I won't be here on Friday. Okay. I won't be here on Friday.
你认为这是一项很有价值的投资。换句话说，你是在逆向思考，试图向投资者传达你的想法。但我认为这会导致很多人从今天、明天以及接下来的几天内反思，是不是需要在短期内调整投资组合，这会影响市场的走向，就像伊朗局势的最新新闻一样具有影响力。我可以告诉你为什么我认为股票在本周会收跌的原因吗？好的，就这样。我星期五不会在这里。
So let's do the math. We're up about 1.2% yesterday or down another 6-10 today. So we're slightly positive for the week so far. So you've got four days to make this case. Yes. And essentially my point is we were talking around catalysts, right? And so like what makes this sort of... Coming up at 10 o'clock. We're feeling a little bearish. What flips that? How do you get buyers back into the market here?
所以我们来算一下账。昨天我们上涨了约1.2%，而今天又下降了6-10%。所以到目前为止，这周我们还是略有盈利的。你还有四天时间来说明这个情况。是的，我的意思是，我们一直在讨论那些可能引发市场变化的催化剂。那么，到底是什么会促使这种状况改变呢？接下来在十点钟，我们感觉有些看空。那么，什么能扭转这种情绪？要怎么才能让买家重新回到市场呢？
And one thing we've talked about a lot over the last couple of years, and I wrote about a lot in my time here and writing in the morning brief is Michael Ketreds has this thing that he always talks about with, if there's a big catalyst that starts your correction, you need the catalyst to reverse, right? And the catalyst we've all been talking about for the past couple of weeks is oil. And so if you're going to tell me that something takes Brent from going down a little bit one day and then Brent's back up above 100 this morning, right? Or I think I've lost chest. That's right around 100 right now. Yep. And same with WTI, right? You had WTI, I talked to almost 85, I think at one point yesterday.
过去几年里我们经常讨论的一件事，并且我在这段时间里和早间简报中也写了很多，就是Michael Ketreds提出的观点：如果有一个大的催化剂引发了市场的修正，那么这个催化剂需要逆转才能改变市场走势。过去几周我们一直在谈论的催化剂就是石油。如果你告诉我布伦特原油价格某一天稍微下降了一点，然后今天早上又涨到了100美元以上，或者我觉得它现在就在100美元左右，以及西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）也是类似，昨天WTI曾一度上涨至接近85美元。
And I gave the right back above 90. What actually sustainably brings that down is obviously, I mean, we don't need to get into the geopolitics of it all again, right? But you need that to really come off the boil here. And does that happen in the next three days? At this point, I'm just saying no. Like I don't know what brings that down instantly. Yesterday, we had a chance at it, right? You had oil both forms of oil down 11, 12%. And it was like, okay, here we go. Maybe here's the online. It didn't happen. It caught a bit off the bottom. And it's still hovering at levels that make people uncomfortable.
我在90以上退还了权利。要让它可持续地降下来，显然涉及很多因素。我们不需要再次深入探讨地缘政治的影响，对吧？但是你需要让情况真的冷却下来。那么这个会在接下来的三天内发生吗？目前，我只能说不会。我不知道有什么能立刻让它降下来。昨天，我们还有机会，对吧？两种类型的油价都下跌了11%到12%，当时感觉好像机会来了。然而，它并没有持续下去，价格从低点反弹了一些，现在仍然在让人不安的水平徘徊。
And I think until you get rid of that headwind and people feel confident in that headwind, I think your direction is lower. So that brings us to the Fed. We've stories this morning from Jen Schomburger who covers the Fed. Here we go, fine. How the Fed has and hasn't reacted to oil shocks in the past. And I think it complements your point well. And now, obviously, we had the meeting last week. We're not going to get a Fed meeting until the first week of May. So there's a little bit of a lag here in terms of when the Fed could act next.
我认为，除非你摆脱那些阻力，并让人们对它感到有信心，否则你的方向是向下的。这就引出了我们对美联储的关注。今天早上，我们从报道美联储的Jen Schomburger那里听到了新闻。来吧，没问题。历史上，美联储在油价冲击中的反应和不反应。我觉得这很好地补充了你的观点。显然，我们上周开了会，而下一次美联储会议要等到五月的第一周。因此，美联储可能采取下一步措施时会有一些时间差。
But it comes to this idea of the Fed's likely not going to be the catalyst to react aggressively against the rise in oil. And it feels like the geopolitics of what sent oil to 100. Maybe it doesn't send it to 150. But coming back to 70 bucks a barrel on WTI feels pretty far off right now. And so it feels just to add to your point that not just that catalyst, but what would be the trigger to start getting markets interested in their being a turn. In that, again, that main source of pressure in the stock market.
但是，这涉及到这样一个观点：美联储可能不会成为对油价上涨作出激烈反应的导火索。现在的感觉是，导致油价涨到每桶100美元的地缘政治因素，可能并不会把它推到150美元。不过，目前来看，西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）降回每桶70美元的可能性似乎还很遥远。因此，为了回应你的观点，不仅是这个催化剂，还有什么会成为触发点，让市场开始对变化产生兴趣。毕竟，油价是股市面临的主要压力来源。
But she quotes Waller in that story. And one thing that Waller pointed out was he says, quote, if it's at a very high level and it stays high for months on end, then at some point it bleeds through because oil is an input, et cetera. But that's sort of the question I think we're debating here is, first of all, he is a hungered on Brent in 90 on WTI too high. I don't know. I'm not an economist. We could go talk to one and come back with a better answer. But it's certainly not 70, right? It's not 80. It's higher than it was. So if we're just continuously sitting there, that seems to be an area that has been an issue for the Fed in the past, right? If you just sit at an elevated level, they just sort of completely turn into weight and C mode. And it's like, well, we'll see what happens here, which I think is that we used at this point we were looking at for the Fed for the next six months, right?
她在那个故事中引用了沃勒。其中，沃勒指出的一点是，他说：“如果油价一直处于很高的水平并持续几个月，那么在某个时候就会产生影响，因为石油是一个投入因素等。”但我认为我们在这里讨论的问题是，他对布伦特原油价格的判断是否偏高，特别是在WTI原油达到90这个水平。我不确定，因为我不是经济学家。我们可以找个经济学家问问，也许能得到一个更好的答案。但可以肯定的是，价格不是70美元，也不是80美元，而是比以前高。所以如果我们一直维持在这个高位，那似乎曾经是美联储在过去的问题，对吗？如果价格一直处在这样的高位，美联储可能会采取观望态度，看事态如何发展。我认为这是我们目前期待美联储在未来六个月的表现。
In less of the labor market fully deteriorates. Yep. You're clearly have inflation that is going to trend higher for a couple of months here. You're not cutting in June into that. If you just have pure data that's sending inflation higher, I don't think you can cut in June and then to your point of we don't have the Fed put, the Fed's not coming to help you. It just doesn't help the markets. Well, and then let's just stay on the Fed as well because as the dust settled on last week, it's now or like, oh, Kevin Worsh might not actually be the Fed share from come June to use your point because as soon as you said they're not going to cut in June, I'm like, well, Kevin Worsh might be the Fed share. Maybe you get some consensus around that. But now as time kind of drags on and it looks like there's going to be some resolution in Congress around the shutdown, fixed TSA, right?
在劳动力市场没有完全恶化的情况下，是的，很明显未来几个月通货膨胀会有上升趋势。在这种情况下，6月份你不能进行削减。如果单从数据来看，通货膨胀在上升，我认为不能在6月份进行削减。再说到没有美联储的干预，联储不会来帮助你，这对市场没有帮助。接着说美联储，上周尘埃落定后，凯文·沃什可能不会成为6月的美联储主席。因为你说他们不会在6月进行削减时，我想可能凯文·沃什会成为美联储主席，也许大家对此会达成某种共识。但现在随着时间的推移，看起来国会可能会在政府停摆问题上找到解决办法，像是解决TSA问题。
So there's a little bit of movement going on there, but we still don't have a hearing scheduled for Worsh. And we had Henry had a trace on yesterday talking about how the Senate for anything, and this I asked her about the funding bill for the war, but she's like, listen, they've got 90 days to do anything and then it's campaign season. So all of this to say, there's not right now, I mean, there's a clear path to Kevin Worsh becoming the Fed share, but there's a procedural challenge. It would seem sitting here today on March 24th for him getting in that seat by June, which further complicates the question for the Fed because not only may you have this, you know, might you have this inflation problem, but now you're going to have a market's challenge of the market trying to understand what does the Worsh Fed look like?
目前那边确实有一点动静，但我们仍然没有为沃什安排听证会。昨天我们请来了亨利，他谈到了参议院对任何事情的态度。我问她关于战争资金法案的情况，她说，他们还有90天的时间来处理任何事情，之后就是竞选季了。总的来说，现在并没有一个明确的道路让凯文·沃什成为美联储主席。看起来，截止今天3月24日，他在6月之前上任有程序上的挑战。这进一步复杂了美联储的问题，因为不仅可能有通货膨胀的问题，现在市场还要面临理解“沃什的美联储”究竟是什么样子的挑战。
What does the Worsh block look like? Is Powell on the Worsh Fed? Well, Powell's almost still, well, he said until there's a full resolution to the legal challenge, he will remain on the Fed board, but to bring up Chris Waller, Fed governor, he or Fed vice chair, he did not dissent on the decision to hold. He had been dissenting. So now it looks a little bit less like there's a Worsh block, let's say, and you have, I don't want to say it's a normal Fed, but it's just a group of individuals who are making their judgments and voting based on what they think is best for the economy, a little bit different than what it felt like we were corining towards maybe three or four months ago where it's like, no, you're going to have the kind of look like Molex-Skotis, right? Where you're going to have like the block, these four governors are always going to vote everywhere.
"Worsh集团"现在看起来如何？鲍威尔还在"Worsh"的美联储中吗？鲍威尔基本上仍在美联储，他表示在法律挑战完全解决之前，他将继续留任。但要提到美联储理事克里斯·沃勒或美联储副主席，他没有在保持决策上持异议，他之前是持不同意见的。所以现在看起来有点不像有"Worsh集团"的样子，我们可以说，美联储不太像一个正常的机构，而是由一群个人根据他们认为对经济最有利的判断进行投票，有点不同于三、四个月前人们可能认为的局面，当时感觉像是某种“模型法庭”，有四个理事会成员总是投相同的票。
Right. And it feels like that Fed has also changed. So all these factors on the margins are just negative for like what makes stocks go up, lower rates, what helps stocks to go up, lower oil. I'm looking around, I'm not seeing where this is going to really come into play. Yeah, well, you brought up what I think was one of my bigger takeaways from the Fed meeting. And we always sit there and debate like you're watching markets as you're listening to Powell, what commented he make that sort of sent things down. And it was really when he started, he started not answering questions and he just gave his answers because he was expecting more questions on his future in the future of the Fed. That was when markets really turned last Wednesday. And so I think there was, I mean, I wrote about this in our sub-stack.
好的。我觉得美联储的行为似乎也发生了变化。因此，所有这些边际因素对使股票上涨的因素都是不利的，比如较低的利率、较低的油价。我环顾四周，看不出这个情况会真正起作用。是的，你提到的是我从美联储会议中收获的一个重要观点。我们总是在那儿坐着讨论，当你一边听鲍威尔讲话一边观察市场时，他发表了什么评论让市场下跌。实际上，当他开始不回答问题，而是直接给出答案时，市场在上周三真正转向了，因为他预计会有更多关于他和美联储未来的问题。我在我们的sub-stack上写了关于这个的文章。
I got, I got a bump in at least once, well, me for two days. Searching for signals on sub-stacks, check it out. But I wrote about Neil Dutters' point on good news cuts being gone, right? And maybe you're not going to get a cut just simply because of the soft landing narrative and that's trouble for stocks. And I do think that's trouble. I think the general uncertainty that you just laid out there was also the biggest trouble for investors. Like, what's going on down there? Yeah. Do I have any confidence in who's running the Fed in a couple months? What the path is going to be? It just like once you start having meetings where you come out and the press conference, one of the key… quotes is we basically could have not done a dot plot because we don't really know what's happening.
我前几天遇到了一些小麻烦，搜寻子版块中的信号。我写过关于Neil Dutters提出的观点：好消息的降息已经消失，对吗？也许你不会因为软着陆的说法而获得降息，这对股票来说是个麻烦。我确实认为这是个问题。你提到的普遍不确定性也是投资者面临的最大困扰之一。比如，现在的情况到底怎么样？我对几个月后谁在管理美联储、未来政策走向有没有信心？一旦开始出现会议后新闻发布会，其中一句重要的话就是：“我们基本上可以不做点阵图，因为我们真的不知道接下来会发生什么。”
Yeah. We have a lot of confidence in that, right? So it's hard to invest around and that makes me say, man, maybe I'm good right now. Well, and I think that, you know, this gets to a meta question. I think that comes up all the time, frankly, which is like, why doesn't we care about the Fed so much? Like, who really cares? A bunch of guys sitting around and women sitting around like talking about monetary policy. What's monetary policy? But the modern market is very locked into rates as, again, as a lever for, do I want to buy on the margin? Do I want to sell on the margin? And all else equal, lower rates good for stocks, higher rates, more challenging for stocks. It doesn't have to be bad. Just more challenging.
是的，我们对此非常有信心，对吧？所以在这种情况下投资很难，这让我觉得，也许我现在状态不错。我认为这确实涉及到了一个更深层次的问题，我觉得这个问题经常被提出来，坦率地说，就是：为什么我们如此关注美联储？似乎没多少人真正关心一群人在讨论货币政策。什么是货币政策？但现代市场非常依赖利率作为一种杠杆，比如：我想以当前的边际价格买入还是卖出？总的来说，较低的利率对股票有利，而较高的利率对股票来说则更具挑战性。当然，并不一定是坏事，只是更具挑战性些。
And so the reason why investors in this market are so locked in on the Fed is because they just want to know what's the next move. And to your point, you know, this is like on the street, why do we care about the Fed? Well, markets want to know what happens next. And now, whereas we have as little certainty about the next move for the Fed as we've had in some time. Therefore, you have a major problem, I guess you would say, for the market in trying to figure out, what's my move here? What's my bid? And a final point on this, and we can pivot or we cannot. We'll move on. I think there's a recency bias aspect to this, too, right?
投资者如此关注美联储的原因是，他们想知道接下来的动向。这就像在市场上，为什么我们要关心美联储？原因在于市场想知道接下来会发生什么。然而，目前我们对美联储下一步行动的不确定性达到了前所未有的程度。因此，对于市场来说，这就成了一个大问题：怎样决策？该出什么价？最后一点，我们可以谈论这个问题，也可以不谈。我认为这里面还有一个"近期偏见"的因素，对吧？
When you think back to 2022, when is the last time stocks really didn't work and we had a big down year, the Fed was raising rates, right? And so now that you have markets even debating that, whether that's actually going to happen or not, I think is a whole separate question. But you have market pricing starting to consider the possibility of raising interest rates. And I think if you think just from a recent experience in these markets, that was the last time being in stocks really didn't work, right? So if I'm even considering the possibility that the Fed's next move could be higher, that makes me nervous as an investor.
回想一下2022年，上一次股票市场真正表现不佳并且大幅下跌的阶段，当时美联储正在加息，对吧？现在市场正在讨论是否会发生这种情况，我认为这是一个完全不同的问题。但是市场定价已经开始考虑加息的可能性。我认为如果仅从最近的市场经验来看，上一次持有股票确实没有取得好收益。所以，如果我甚至在考虑美联储下一步可能会加息的可能性，作为投资者，我会感到紧张。
Yeah. All right. Speaking of markets, but not the stock market. When I came back to Yahoo Finance in 2022, you were just a young, cub reporter. You were on the sports business beat, which was really kind of the sports betting beat. Daily fantasy beat. We saw draft kings and then Flutter. Had they been public at that point? They had draft kings had been public. Flutter was public in Europe and then came to... Flutter, kind of company of Fandil. So now we have public trade, public trade company sports betting. And of course, the insertion of prediction markets has been the big thing in the last couple of years.
好的。说到市场，但不是股票市场。当我在2022年回到雅虎财经时，你还是个年轻的新手记者。那时你负责体育商业报道，其实主要集中在体育博彩和每日幻想体育上。我们看到了DraftKings以及Flutter公司。当时它们已经上市了吗？DraftKings已经上市了，Flutter已经在欧洲上市，然后进入了其他市场。Flutter是Fanduel的母公司。所以现在我们看到体育博彩公司也开始公开交易。当然，预测市场的引入是过去几年里的一个大趋势。
And the influx of cash that has gone into CalShi and Polymarket, Polymarket, Aldous Close, Yahoo Finance has a partnership with them. The influx of investor cash into those two companies in the last year has really made the prediction market. I guess you would say it's a problem for the sports betting companies. Sure. The very minimum. Robinhood is now in the space. Coinbase is kind of rushing in. It's all kind of one market at this point. And yesterday, very interesting series of developments where we saw in the morning it reported that bipartisan... There's a bipartisan push in the Senate for rules to... Or legislation to create further rules inside of trading rules essentially.
最近，大量资金流入到CalShi和Polymarket两家公司。Polymarket位于Aldous Close，而这些公司与雅虎财经有合作。在过去的一年里，投资者资金的大量涌入实际上推动了预测市场的发展。我猜这对体育博彩公司来说可能是个问题。当然，至少Robinhood现在也进入了这个领域，Coinbase也在加速进入。目前，这些都算是一个市场。昨天发生了一系列有趣的发展，上午有报道指出，参议院内有两党合作推动立法，以进一步制定内部交易规则。
Around who can bet on CalShi and who can bet on Polymarket? Both companies really quickly came out and said we now have new rules on who can bet on our platforms. And I'm just wondering from your perspective, let's start from the business side of how you've thought about the way these two players have changed both the sports betting market and the way that we've seen, I think, Robinhood, Coinbase, a lot of others rush in to make this one big macro bet on everything all in one place trade.
关于谁可以在CalShi和Polymarket上投注的问题，这两家公司很快就出台了新的规定。我想从您的角度了解一下，从商业角度来看，您是如何看待这两家公司对体育博彩市场的影响的。尤其是在Robinhood、Coinbase等公司迅速进入市场，试图整合所有交易于一体的大趋势下，您是如何看待这些变化的？
Yeah. I think if you talk to the gambling companies over the last couple of years, and I remember Peter Jackson telling me this, I think it was 2024 during the election. I asked him a throwaway question at the time as a last interview question. I said, would you allow betting on the presidential election if it became legal here? He said, yeah, we're interested in that because they do it in Europe. Flutter is an international brand that has experienced in different kinds of markets. So they were always interested in it.
好的。我记得在过去几年里，如果你和博彩公司交流过，会发现这方面的兴趣。我记得彼得·杰克逊告诉过我这件事，我想是在2024年的选举期间。在一次采访的最后，我随口问了他一个问题。我说，如果这里允许对总统选举下注的话，你们会参与吗？他说，他们很感兴趣，因为在欧洲已经有人这样做了。Flutter是一家国际品牌，在各种市场中都有经验，所以他们一直对此很感兴趣。
I think the twist here has been the prediction market companies, Calshy and Polymarkets, ability to get into sports gambling in states where sports gambling wasn't legal. And like we can call it prediction market sports betting or whatever, but like it sports gambling. Right. It's prediction market on a sporting event or whatever, whatever the exact analogy it's sports gambling, right? I'm in a legal state, so I don't know how they spread the needle.
我认为这里的转折点在于预测市场公司，比如Calshy和Polymarkets，能够在体育赌博不合法的州进入体育博彩领域。我们可以称之为预测市场体育博彩或其他称谓，但实际就是体育赌博。这是一种针对体育赛事的预测市场，无论具体叫什么名字，它就是体育赌博。我所在的州是合法的，所以我不太清楚他们是如何做到的。
But now they're pushing into states where it wasn't legal. And so if you think about the total tam of what the eventual pitch was for all of these sportsbooks was, well, yeah, think about how well they're doing now. They haven't even gotten in California yet. They haven't gotten in Texas yet. Maybe they eventually turned the story around in Florida. Then they have those giant states with all these people. And then you're talking about a totally different sort of overall market, right?
现在，他们正在拓展到那些尚未合法的州。所以，如果你考虑一下这些体育博彩公司最初的市场预期，你就会明白他们现在的表现有多好。他们甚至还没有进入加利福尼亚和德克萨斯。也许他们最终能在佛罗里达逆转局势。一旦他们进入这些拥有大量人口的大州，整个市场格局就会完全不同，对吧？
Well, if you have two companies that go in, one thing that's been true with sports gambling since it was legalized almost a decade ago now, the incumbents usually win. But DraftKings and Fandall in the beginning, it was like, oh no, ESPN's getting into this. MGM wants to get into this now. Penetrate. Penetrate payments going to get into it. And all these, it's fanatics is going to get into it. Well, guess what? The companies that were there first just won.
好吧，如果有两家公司参与进来，自从大约十年前体育博彩合法化以来，一直有一个事实，那就是业内的先行者通常会获胜。在最开始的时候，DraftKings 和 Fanduel 看起来好像要输，因为 ESPN 想加入进来，MGM 也想进入这个领域。还有其他很多公司，例如Fanatics，也想涉足这个行业。但是你猜怎么着？那些最早进入市场的公司还是赢了。
Because once you have it on your phone and you already have your money logged in and the thing works, you just stick with it. And so I think that's been the real threat for these companies is CalShane and Polymarket move first to get the CFTC approval to just do essentially sports gambling in states where it wasn't legal. And then it's like, oh no, Confandal and DraftKings really come in second here. How much would they have to spend to get someone to move off Polymarket or CalShane and then you back in that sort of promotion standpoint where they're giving away free bets?
因为一旦你把它装在手机上，并且已经把钱存入账户并且一切正常运作，你就很容易保持使用。所以，我认为对这些公司的真正威胁是CalShane和Polymarket率先获得了CFTC的批准，在那些体育赌博不合法的州做这个生意。然后就会变成，哦不，Confandal和DraftKings确实在这里落后了。他们需要投入多少资金才能吸引人们从Polymarket或CalShane转移过来，然后又回到了那种通过免费投注进行推广的方式？
So that was the concern. Yeah, I mean, look to that last point, you kind of never, it's kind of become clear. You never really leave that space if you're a gambling company. Like they still are aggressively promoting all kinds of new customer offers, or just constantly part of that equation. So the thing that I am trying to work out, and maybe it's not the right comparison, but like the two models I have in my head here of how the prediction market thing plays out, is does this more represent the daily fantasy arc?
所以这就是问题所在。嗯，我的意思是，看到这一点，你会发现如果你是一家博彩公司，你就永远无法真正离开这个领域。他们仍然在积极推广各种新的客户优惠，或者始终是这个领域的一部分。所以我在试图搞清楚的问题是，这是否类似于日常幻想体育的发展模式，也许这不是一个完全正确的比较。
So the daily fantasy arc was, you think all these companies, many of these companies, created daily fantasy games that were not sports betting, but they kind of like got around the rules. It had a sports bet cadence because it was quicker. Because the fantasy league is the whole season. So daily fantasy is like a one-time event, you know, pick a team, blah, blah. I'm going to explain the mechanics. So that arc eventually led essentially to sports betting, same platform, right, with the leaders in daily fantasy.
这段话大意是：这些公司中的许多创建了每日幻想游戏，这些游戏实际上并不是体育博彩，但它们以某种方式绕过了相关规则。每日幻想游戏有着类似体育投注的节奏，因为其周期更短。而传统的幻想联赛通常是一个赛季，每日幻想则像是一个一次性的事件，你可以选择一个队伍等等。这个发展路径最终基本上导致了体育博彩的出现，就是在相同的平台上，由每日幻想领域的领头公司推进的。
Or does it have a more crypto adjacent arc, which is, this is, yes, you know, there's gambling aspects, let's say, yolo aspects, still to the crypto trade, but that was like a big part of it five, seven years ago. And then it just became institutionalized as we would sit here and discuss crypto allocations in the same way we do, you know, the way we discuss fixed income inequities within investment portfolios, right?
或者，它的发展轨迹更接近于加密货币领域，也就是说，这其中确实有赌博的成分，也可以说是“梭哈”的成分，仍然体现在加密货币交易中，但这在五到七年前是一个很大的部分。然后，它逐渐被机构化，就像我们现在坐在这里讨论加密货币配置一样，就像我们讨论投资组合中的固定收益和股票一样，对吧？
So I'm not sure if that's quite the right comparison, but I feel like the way prediction markets came on the scene so quickly, how they ramped, how they infiltrated these user bases, I'm trying to figure out like, is it, like which one it is? But maybe this is just totally like not, not on the market. I mean, right now it's more of the daily fantasy route, right? Because in order for it to be crypto and we start talking about allocations or serious players are going to start allocating money to there, right?
所以我不太确定这是否是一个恰当的比较，但我觉得预测市场的出现速度非常快，它们的增长方式以及它们如何渗透到用户群体中，这让我在试图弄清楚这到底算是哪种模式？不过，也许这根本就不在市场上。我是说，现在它更像是每日幻想体育的路线，对吧？因为如果要成为加密货币市场并且我们开始讨论资金分配或者严肃的投资者要开始向那里分配资金的话。
I would want to hear more interests from people that I speak with, which usually ends up being an off the record or on background question, but I have asked investors and banks, like, are you guys interested in this? Yeah. Like do clients want to put money in? Like it's a more binary bet, right? Or rather, then we're going to position X, Y, and Z the other way because we think the jobs report's going to come out a certain outcome. Yeah. One could argue, if you feel strongly about your forecast, you could just go and place a binary bet on how many payrolls are going to be or a binary bet on where the unemployment rate's going to be in three months. What's the answer? And that could be, they said right now, no, they're using it to track how markets are pricing things and that's more of a volume story. If there's high volume in a market, then they feel like it is. That's a stagger market. Yeah. And it is giving you some sort of read, but they're not looking to actually allocate money in those places.
我希望听到更多与我交谈的人的兴趣，这通常以非正式或背景问题的形式出现。我曾询问过投资者和银行，比如：“你们对这个有兴趣吗?”或者“客户是否想在这里投资?”这更像是一种二元选择，而不是根据我们的预测，比如对就业报告的预期，去调整某个投资组合。有人可能会说，如果对预测非常有信心，可以直接对就业数据或失业率在三个月后的情况进行二元投注。但是，目前他们的答复是没有，他们主要用这些信息来跟踪市场对某些事项的定价，这更像是一个交易量的故事。如果市场交易量很高，他们就觉得市场有兴趣，但他们其实并不打算在这些地方投入资金。
Yeah. And then, yeah, I don't know. I think the daily fantasy part of it just sort of means that we're at a nascent part of this, right? Okay, people want to bet on random things on a prediction market, kind of go for it and we'll see how real it gets. I still, I think Fandall and Draftking still survive out of this. Fandall's down 50% just to start the year or flutter. Sorry, it's down 50% to start the year. I think that's a viable dip at this point because I think they're different products. It's still a sports gambling product that works. So we'll just close the loop here on what the actual companies came out and said, probably market announcing new rules for its trading platform. So it's now got three categories of prohibited insider trades trading on stolen information. So that's basic one. Trading on illegal tips. Okay. And then the most interesting one is trading by those who can influence the outcome.
好的。那么，嗯，我也不太清楚。我觉得日常幻想竞猜（daily fantasy part）这个部分只是意味着我们处于一个刚起步的阶段，对吧？好，人们想在预测市场上对各种随机事件下注，随他们去吧，我们就看看这件事情会变得多真实。我仍然认为Fandall和Draftking可以在这个过程中存活下来。Fandall今年一开始就下跌了50%，或者说Flutter，一开始就下跌了50%。我觉得在这一点上，这算是一个有潜力的低谷，因为我认为它们的产品有所不同，它们仍然是有效的体育赌博产品。所以这里我们就闭环一下有关这些公司的实际声明，可能市场会宣布为其交易平台引入新规则。现在有三类禁止的内幕交易：利用被盗信息进行的交易，这是一种基本形式。进行非法提示的交易。最有趣的是，那些可以影响结果的人进行的交易。
Now the way that Kouchi framed this in their announcement was they're going to prohibit trading from any person who has access or is in a position to access Muto NMPI. Okay, fine. Affiliate source agency or a decision maker direct or indirect who has any influence, direct or indirect on the outcome of the underlying event. So this is really politicians, athletes, guy on the set of a movie where there's a poly market bet like these are the kinds of things that are going to go. What about the athletes simply? That person is going to be in my opinion in violation of employer affiliate of a source agency for any contract. So if you know the athlete in a personal capacity, I think you might qualify as source agency for a source of contract. If it's like something like Josh Schaeffer's total and the men's basketball league tonight. Right. Yeah. And then by the way, yeah, under, right? And that would be how you would game it too, right? You would always do the under on something like that because the person can actually control it.
现在，河内在公告中表示，将禁止任何能够获取或有机会获取Muto NMPI信息的人进行交易。好的，包括附属机构、拥有直接或间接影响力的决策者，不论是对事件结果有直接还是间接影响的人。这实际上是指政客、运动员、电影片场的人，他们可能会参与这样的博彩活动。至于运动员，他们可能会违反雇主或附属机构与相关合同的规定。所以，如果你以私人关系认识该运动员，你可能会被视为合同信息来源的代理。如果像是与今晚男子篮球联赛中的Josh Schaeffer的总得分相关的事。对，就是这样的。顺便说一下，对吧？你会怎样游戏呢？你可能会一直赌低于某个值，因为相关人员可以实际控制结果。
Yeah. But I just don't look it's nice. That's a great idea. I'm just not buying that that actually is going to work in practice, right? And they're going to be able to do that. Oh, I think it's going to work in practice. I think it just all of a sudden these are different kind of like overnight. There's like different products, I think, than what was one of those months ago. I mean, obviously, because there's new rules. But I just feel like this is a grind of new rulemaking in this crypto kind of adjacent thing. Like, oh, we want to set the terms. We want to engage with regulators to create the right solution. It's exactly like crypto in that way, right? Where it's, we want regulation. We want it. And then that will take a hard, hard heel turn at some point because you're not actually in control of what the regulation is going to be.
当然啦。但我只是不觉得这看起来很好。这是个好主意，只是我不认为它在实际操作中会奏效，对吧？他们真能做到吗？哦，我觉得这在实际中是可行的。我认为突然之间这些产品就像是完全不同的东西，和几个月前的不一样了。我是说，显然是因为有了新规则。但我感觉这就像是在加密货币附近的领域中不断推陈出新规则。比如说，我们想要设定条件，与监管机构合作来创造合适的解决方案。这就像加密货币的那种情况对吧？我们想要监管。我们想要它。然而，到某个时候可能会发生急剧的变化，因为你实际上并不能控制那个监管会是什么样的。
Yeah. And then you're going to have to deal with it. And then you're going to have probably, I mean, this just looks like it's going to create a lot of PR nightmares, right? Your people are, sorry, you're pretty great. You're pretty great. Right. Do people want to be in that market, though? Yeah. If all the reports start coming out that they're clearly is insider trading, like, I don't know, I don't want to play if it's well, people you're asking can only be in the market if there's rules. So maybe there's, maybe there's the way in for them. Right. Futures are lower. Red or green close today, Josh. I'll take red. I'll take red. I'll take red. Okay. I'll be there every day. I'm an impartial journalist. I have no idea.
好的。那么你将不得不处理这个问题。这似乎会造成一场公关噩梦，对吧？你们的人很棒，很棒，对吧。但大家真的想进入这个市场吗？是啊。如果所有的报告都开始显示明显存在内幕交易的话，我不知道，我不想参与其中。那些你要找的人只有在有规则的时候才愿意进入市场。所以，也许这对于他们来说是一个机会。对吧。期货走低。今天是红盘还是绿盘收场，Josh？我押红。押红。押红。好的。我每天都会在这里。我是一个公正的新闻记者，我不知道。
All right. Josh Shavr. Thanks for stopping by. See you next week. Yeah. And that'll do it for more brief here on Yahoo Finance. Much more ahead. Coming up. Red or through the break. All right. Thanks. Thank you. Thank you. It's Tuesday morning for the investing world. I'm Yowell Finds, executive editor Brian Sausie coming to you live from our New York City headquarters. Here's what's on my mind right now. First, city strategists are not ruling out $200 oil if the US war and Iran persist until June. Nothing like scaring the hell out of investors with this one. Thank you, city actually. No. I do not thank you for trying to scare everyone.
好的。乔什·沙弗。感谢你的到访。下周见。是的，今天的雅虎财经简短更新就到这里。还有更多内容即将上线。广告期间敬请期待。好的，谢谢。谢谢大家。现在是周二早上，投资界的人们好。我是雅虎财经的执行编辑布莱恩·索西，正在纽约总部直播。以下是我目前关注的内容。首先，花旗的策略师表示，如果美国和伊朗的冲突持续到明年6月，油价可能会达到每桶200美元。这绝对吓坏了投资者。谢谢你，花旗。其实不，我不谢谢你，因为你在吓唬大家。
Second, Goldman Sachs is out calling for worldwide inflation surge because oil prices have surged on the back of the war. This makes more sense to me than a $200 oil prediction. Three, shout out Admiral James Stavreides. Now a vice chairman at Carlaw Group. Here's what the Admiral has to say this morning in his newsletter, love reading his newsletter. At the moment, there are two clocks ticking on the battlefield. The first is the growing antipathy to the war in the United States. A couple with certain gasoline prices. An initial pentagon bill for $200 billion.
其次，高盛预计全球将出现通货膨胀激增，因为由于战争原因，油价已经飙升。这种看法比预测油价达到200美元更合理。第三，向詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯海军上将致敬，他目前是卡劳集团的副董事长。以下是他今天早上在新闻通讯中的一些看法，我很喜欢读他的新闻通讯。目前，战场上有两个时间在流逝。第一个是美国对战争的反感情绪日益增加，这与汽油价格有关。五角大楼初步预算为2000亿美元。
Those costs and declining ammunition levels are another part of the clock ticking that Washington is hearing more clearly each day with midterms coming in November. The Trump administration is keenly aware of the political need for an off ramp soon. The second clock ticking is in Tehran where the regime's goal at this point is simple to survive. Love me some blunt analysis. And lastly, yes, Nvidia Stock is still trading below the important 200-day moving average. The only two mag seven members trading above the tour today. Google and Tesla. That's what we call news you can use.
这些成本和弹药储备减少是华盛顿现在每天更加清晰听到的危机信号之一，尤其随着11月中期选举的临近更是如此。特朗普政府敏锐地意识到政坛上是时候找到一个解决办法了。第二个危机信号来自德黑兰，现阶段该政权的目标很简单，就是生存下去。我非常喜欢这种直白的分析。最后，是的，英伟达的股票仍然低于重要的200日移动平均线。今天交易高于平均线的七大科技股仅有谷歌和特斯拉。这就是我们所说的“实用新闻”。
You're on the open bid round table. Arrogant B. Riley. Well, cheap market strategist and y'all finance senior reporter. A Nez Faray and as coming to you here again, like I did yesterday, we are rinse and repeating. Give me the latest on oil because the past 24 hours have been absolutely wild. 100%. We are seeing now oil futures up more than 4% after yesterday. They had gone down around 10%. Iran saying that they have no intention of negotiating. You also have the Wall Street Journal that is saying that perhaps Saudi Arabia and the UAE could get into this conflict as well. So that would add another layer of escalation.
你正在参与公开投标圆桌会议。傲慢的B. Riley，还有廉价市场策略师以及"你们财经"的高级记者A Nez Faray，我们又见面了，就像昨天一样，我们在重复进行。请告诉我最新的石油消息，因为过去24小时真的非常动荡。情况确实如此。我们现在看到石油期货上涨超过4%，而在昨天，它们曾下跌约10%。伊朗表示他们无意进行谈判。同时，《华尔街日报》报道说，也许沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋可能会卷入这场冲突，这将使局势进一步升级。
And then you also have attacks that are still happening a pipe in Iran, gas pipe in southwestern Iran. So these markets are really moving on the headlines. A Rebecca Babin from CIBC. She told me, look, the downside when it comes to price movements like we saw yesterday, oil plummeting, she said that is capped because really there still is so much uncertainty over the straight of Hormuz and when that will be reopened. If you take a look at polymarket, polymarket is saying a 37% chance that it would, the traffic would return back to normal by the end of April.
当前，伊朗西南部的天然气管道仍然受到攻击。这些市场实际上受到了新闻头条的影响。来自加拿大帝国商业银行的Rebecca Babin告诉我，油价像我们昨天看到的那样暴跌，其下行空间是有限的，因为霍尔木兹海峡仍然存在很大的不确定性，不知道什么时候会重新开放。如果你查看Polymarket的数据，他们预测，到四月底，交通恢复正常的概率是37%。
But as you mentioned, Saazi, you still have Wall Street that is predicting that the longer that this goes, the higher the prices for crude that could go. So city, $200 barrel, yes, through June, if this continues. All right, are you big buyer in 200 oil? I mean, if that happens, would you be peace? I mean, we're in a recession. We're in a full-blown recession if oil is toward oil is a barrel. If not a depression, let's be honest. Yeah, that's true. It's all about duration though, right? It's like how long does it spend at that elevated level?
翻译如下：
“正如你提到的，Saazi，华尔街仍然预测，如果局势持续下去，原油价格会越来越高。所以有机构说，油价有可能涨到每桶200美元，是的，如果这种情况持续到六月。那么，你会在200美元的油价时大笔购入吗？我的意思是，如果真的发生这种情况，你会觉得安心吗？因为那时我们可能已经陷入经济衰退，如果油价保持在这一水平，那甚至可能是经济萧条。没错，不过关键还是持续时间，对吧？问题在于高价会持续多久。”
And then every time there's an oil price shock, someone wants to be the highest estimate. Oh, they love this stuff, Art. Everybody's trying to be a hero. They always want to predict something. Why are we trying to predict $200 barrel oil? Who the hell wants to see that? It's usually Goldman Sachs. So city beat them a bunch today and they came out with a $200 price. Anybody can model that out, but it's knowing, as just said, it's knowing when we finally get more flow through the straight of Hormuz.
然后，每次油价出现震荡时，总会有人想要做出最高的预测。他们热衷于此，阿特。大家都在争着当英雄，总想预测出些什么。为什么我们要预测200美元一桶的油价呢？谁会希望看到这样的情况呢？通常是高盛在做这种事。不过今天花旗取得了一些领先，他们提出了200美元的预测。其实任何人都会计算这个，但正如刚才所说，关键是要知道我们何时终于能够通过霍尔木兹海峡增加供应。
And if that is something that could physically happen, then you'll see a collapse very much like we saw yesterday. I'm probably retraced about a half of the move that we've already seen. So to the extent that anyone that wants to predict this is also going to have to tell you what the weather's going to be like in a month. You just don't know until we start to get some constructive conversation going on about what it's going to take to open up the straits because without that, you could predict any price you want.
如果这真能实际发生，那么你将看到类似于我们昨天所看到的那种崩溃。我可能已经回撤了大约一半的涨幅。所以，任何想要预测这个情况的人都必须告诉你一个月后的天气状况。你在开始就如何打开海峡展开有建设性的对话之前，是无法知道的，因为没有这些对话，价格预测就像空谈。
It's just that it's impossible to have that come to fruition unless it until we know when we get some resolve by getting this right to open. All right. City and Goldman, of course they could predict a weather. What are you talking about? I mean, they do it all the time. I put this to my guest yesterday. I want to put it to you. The market volatility is back on the line. We've seen these wild swings, which is to be expected. How do you play this? Like, what do you do in a backdrop like this?
要实现这一点是不可能的，除非我们知道什么时候能够解决问题，以便顺利开放。好吧。City 和高盛，他们当然能预测天气。你在说什么？我的意思是，他们一直都在做预测。我昨天问过我的嘉宾这个问题，我也想问问你。市场波动又回来了。我们见过这些大的波动，这是可以预料的。在这样的背景下，你应该怎么应对？你该怎么做呢？
Yeah, three things to think about Brian. And I think the first and foremost is that you don't want to listen to the sort of daily headline driven markets and think that that's normal. I think what eventually happens is we get to a place where we have a better understanding of the duration of this conflict. And then things start to get back to a steady state, right? So there are those that will say that we have in price than enough of what this could possibly mean in the markets. And that's likely true at the index level for the S&P 500, where we're still not down 10% from from recent highs.
是的，布莱恩，有三件事情要考虑。我认为最重要的一点是，你不应该被每天的新闻头条影响，然后认为这就是常态。我想最终的结果是，我们会对这场冲突的持续时间有更好的了解，然后事情会开始恢复到一个相对稳定的状态。有些人会说，我们已经在市场价格中充分考虑了这一可能造成的影响。这在标普500指数层面上可能是正确的，因为我们离最近的高点还没有下跌10%。
And at the VIX level, where we haven't closed above 30 for two consecutive days, we've, you know, we've tested it, but we haven't closed above that. So the people that watch this in terms of when we get that capitulation sell off to making a decision that we've probably bottomed out, we're very early in that stage. But I think that's all about your time frame, too. If you're a long-term investor, you shouldn't be playing geopolitical events, right? So if you did the same thing at the beginning of any war, you've actually lost money because six to nine months later.
在VIX指数层面上，我们还没有连续两天收在30以上。我们尝试过达到这个水平，但从未真正收在30以上。因此，那些关注此现象、以此来判断市场是否触底的人，可能认为我们还处于早期阶段。我认为这也取决于你的投资时间框架。如果你是长期投资者，不应该因为地缘政治事件而做出投资决策。因为如果你在任何战争初期做出同样的反应，几乎都会亏损，因为六到九个月后，情况往往会出现变化。
The market is typically higher. That was true when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago. It's likely going to be true again. This is true about the markets going all the way back to World War II. So your long-term investor, don't try to play geopolitical events and certainly don't wait for all of us to settle because of the thus and never settles. There's going to be something else after this conflict that will be concerned about.
市场通常是上涨的。这一趋势在四年前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时就已成立，并且很可能再次成为现实。从二战以来，市场一直如此。因此，作为长期投资者，不要试图利用地缘政治事件来进行投资，也不要等待局势完全平稳，因为局势从未完全平稳。在这次冲突之后，还会有其他因素需要关注。
Good stuff there are. Arnaz, let me get back to you here because this has been a morning of interesting calls, at least in my, in my email inbox. Another one that caught my attention, Bernstein on Bitcoin. Bernstein is saying that Bitcoin looks like it's bottomed. That is one big call because you're seeing Bitcoin at around 70,000, 71,000 right now. But what they're saying is that they still have 150,000 price target, by the way, on Bitcoin.
这里有一些不错的内容。Arnaz，让我在这里继续和你交流，因为今天早上我的电子邮件收件箱里有一些有趣的电话。其中一个引起我注意的是伯恩斯坦对比特币的评价。伯恩斯坦表示，比特币看起来已经触底。这是一个大胆的预测，因为你现在看到比特币的价格大约在70,000到71,000左右。但他们仍然对比特币的价格目标定在150,000。
But they're saying, look, Bitcoin is outperformed. It has a stronger buyer base now. It has a strategy which is like the bank blushers are for Bitcoin. It is now you have long-term holders that are holding Bitcoin and the retail hands that panic sold. Well, now you have a stronger base. That's their thesis. There are other Wall Street analysts that are saying that Bitcoin has not bottomed yet. But Bernstein is saying it's going higher from here.
他们说，比特币的表现已经超越了之前，现在拥有更强大的买家基础。比特币的策略就像银行的储备资产一样。现在有长期持有比特币的人，而那些因恐慌而抛售的散户已经退出市场。根据他们的观点，比特币现在有了更坚实的基础。华尔街的其他分析师认为比特币还没有触底，但伯恩斯坦则认为比特币价格会从现在开始上涨。
Speaking of going higher, I shout out to the top of the show, or that Google is still holding above its two-and-aid-be-moving average, you like to see it. But the Residant Mag 7 is not doing so great. What's the, what's the play there, you think? Yeah, technology has been doing great since the fourth quarter of last year. There's been obviously all sorts of questions about artificial intelligence, cat-backs, the circularity of some of those contracts.
说到上升，我要为节目的开头大喊一声，或者说谷歌仍然保持在其两年移动平均线之上，你会很喜欢看到这一点。不过，Mag 7就没那么好了。你觉得接下来该怎么办呢？是的，自从去年第四季度以来，科技行业表现一直很好。显然围绕人工智能、资本支出以及某些合约的循环性有各种各样的问题。
When we'll see a return on the invested capital, more importantly, of late. It's been, you know, playing this artificial intelligence whack-a-mull. What sector or what business line is going to be destroyed because of AI, and taking out software companies one at a time and taking them to the woodshed. And I think all of that's been very overblown. I think that one thing to take a step back for from is, we started this war in Iran when technology was very oversold, and it has actually held up better. Energy has been the best performing sector. Technology has been the second best performing sector. I think there's a lot of reasons for that. I think technology has proven to be a bit immune to higher energy prices, and it comes into this event in a very oversold. A load multiple of the lowest multiples we've seen in about four years.
近年来，我们何时能够看到投资资本的回报更为重要。最近，大家都在关注人工智能的发展，人们担心哪些行业或业务线会因人工智能而被淘汰，就像在打一场“打地鼠”游戏一样，一个个地盯上软件公司，并对它们进行大肆批评。我认为这种担忧有些过于夸张。我们需要退一步看，尤其是当初在技术被过度低估时，我们在伊朗开始的这场“战争”，科技行业表现得比预期好。能源是表现最好的行业，而科技行业则是表现第二好的。我认为这有很多原因。科技行业似乎对能源价格上涨有一定的免疫力，而且它在此次事件中的表现是在一个非常低估的状态下的。我们现在的技术股市估值是过去四年里最低的。
Art real quick. You know what has also been immune? Earnings estimates for the S&P 500. Every chart that I look at, it still, it looks like this. There you go, my hands are running off the screen. I mean, that's where all these estimates are still going. What point does the street mark down as estimates? I'm not talking about 2%, 3%, I'm talking about a large markdown because of higher oil prices, that impacts the stock market. Again, all that's new with duration. For how long are we in this elevated state? So if we start hearing first quarter earnings reporting and companies start talking about the impact of higher energy prices, understanding that only one month of this quarter was impacted in the first quarter.
很快谈谈艺术。你知道还有什么东西也几乎没变吗？那就是标普500的盈利预期。每当我查看相关图表时，它们看起来都是如此。看吧，我的手几乎从屏幕上消失了，这正是这些预期的走势。市场什么时候会大幅下调这些预期呢？我不是指下调2%或3%，而是由于油价上涨带来的影响，对股市的预期进行大幅下调。所有这些都与持续时间有关。我们在这种高行状态下能待多久？那么，如果我们开始听到第一季度的财报，并且公司开始谈论能源价格上涨的影响，尤其是理解到本季度只有一个月受到影响。
So I think that if this drags on into the summertime, you're certainly going to see downgrades, especially with energy-intensive industries, the industrials, the materials, etc. And we'll certainly see a continuation of the sell-off in things like consumer discretionary, especially as it pertains to travel and leisure. That makes a lot more sense to me than that $200 oil shout out. To Ardenaz, thanks so much. Good to see you both as always. For more polymarket odds, you can scan the QR code on your screen to go to the Yowel Finds prediction markets hub powered by Polymarket. I had here first thing each day to get the pulse of what could be hot or not in the markets and you should be doing that too.
所以我认为如果这件事拖到夏季，你肯定会看到降级，尤其是能源密集型行业，比如工业和材料行业等。我们肯定还会看到消费类股票的持续抛售，特别是与旅行和休闲有关的方面。这比宣称油价会涨到200美元更有意义。感谢Ardenaz，一如既往地很高兴见到你们。想要了解更多市场预测，可以扫描你屏幕上的二维码，进入由Polymarket提供技术支持的Yowel Finds预测市场中心。我每天一开始就会去那里了解市场上可能热或不热的动态，你也应该这样做。
Straight ahead, I am really deep into a U.S. economy. It has been shocked to its core because of surging oil prices. No need to economist, Noria Warbeanie is here at the next. The global economy has been shocked by the surging oil price at the hands of the U.S. War and Iran. Where is the disconnect here? The disconnect is that the markets are still believing that this is going to be relatively short-war. We'll end up in the next few weeks in which has the impact of the rise in all prices on inflation and on U.S. economic growth is going to be moderate.
直截了当地说，我对美国经济的理解很深入。由于油价飙升，美国经济已经被震动到了核心。不需要经济学家，Noria Warbeanie 就在这里。全球经济由于美国和伊朗之间的战争而导致的油价上涨受到了冲击。这里的问题在哪里？问题在于市场仍然相信这将是一场相对较短的战争，我们会在接下来的几周内看到结束。这意味着油价上涨对通货膨胀和美国经济增长的影响将是温和的。
There will be some slowdown in growth. There will be some increasing inflation for a few months. But there is not going to be a significant increase in inflation and expectation. Now, the market could be right. It could be wrong. But let's put this way. Historically, we have two extremes. One, 1970s, young people were between Israel and Arab state. Fripling of all prices, taxation, recession, high inflation, 7475. Then we had the Islamic Revolutionary Rani 79, double-deprecession, 882. That was one extreme. High inflation, severe recession.
经济增长将会有所放缓，未来几个月通货膨胀会有所上升。但不会出现显著的通胀和预期增长。市场可能是对的，也可能是错的。让我们这样看待这个问题。在历史上，我们有两个极端。第一个是在1970年代，当时年轻人身处以色列和阿拉伯国家之间，石油价格暴涨，征税，经济衰退，以及1974-1975年的高通货膨胀。然后是1979年的伊斯兰革命，经济出现第二次衰退，到1982年，这就是一个极端，表现为高通胀和严重经济衰退。
The other extreme was June of last year. When the war lasted only 12 days, all prices went up. Then we went back again. Stock market wobbled for a few days, same thing for bond yields. But then we went back to normal. Today, it doesn't look yet like the 1970s, but it's something worse than the 12 days war of last June when Iran was either unable or are willing to block the state of arms. This time around, the states have been blocked. Some of the production facilities of the Gulf have been damaged. Therefore, the impact on all prices and potential on inflation and growth is going to be greater.
去年六月的情况完全相反。当时战争只持续了12天，所有价格都上涨了。然后市场又恢复了正常。股市波动了几天，债券收益率也是如此，但随后一切恢复了正常。如今的情况虽然还不像上世纪70年代那么糟糕，但比去年六月的12天战争更严重。当时，伊朗无力或不愿封锁武器运输，但这次，运输通道被封锁了。海湾地区的一些生产设施受损。因此，对所有价格的影响，以及对通货膨胀和经济增长的潜在影响，都将更为严重。
How much greater depends on how long this war is going to last. The market are still expecting is not going to last much longer. Do you think the economy will surprise folks to the downside in the first half of this year because of the war, how it's impacting consumers sentiment, and how it's also impacting their walls? I don't think we are far behind for me to say this, but I don't think we are in a recession yet, but are we in a very, very slow growth in backdrop?
这在多大程度上取决于这场战争会持续多久。目前市场预期战争不会持续太久。你认为由于战争对消费者情绪和他们消费能力的影响，今年上半年经济是否会出乎意料地表现不佳？我觉得我们离这一判断不远，但我认为我们还没有进入衰退。不过，我们是否正处在一个极其缓慢的增长背景下呢？
Well, there have been some slowdown of growth last year because of the impact of the tariff, but actually growth was beginning to accelerate this year because yet monitoring easing, yet the fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline. Financial conditions were very, very easy, and overall business confidence was strong, and you had still tailwinds from the AI and the data center and the Capac's boom. Those were the reasons why actually growth should have become stronger this year, compared to last year, while inflation would moderate as the impact of the tariff fades out.
好的，去年的增长有所放缓，这是关税影响造成的，但实际上今年的增长已经开始加速。因为货币政策放松和财政刺激措施仍在推行中，金融环境非常宽松，总体商业信心强劲，同时人工智能、数据中心和资本支出热潮也带来了助力。这些都是今年增长应该比去年更强劲的原因，而随着关税影响的消退，通货膨胀将会减缓。
Compared to that baseline right now, the impact of the shock is some slowdown in economic growth, some increase in inflation. Again, if the war lasts only two months, there will be the slowdown of growth and rising inflation, but it's going to be moderate, and we could still grow faster than potential this year, and inflation is going to remain above target, but it's going to be okay. If instead the war lasts three, four months, or longer, then the impact on growth will be stronger, negative impact, and the impact on inflation and inflation on court and add like an expectation become higher.
与目前的基线相比，这次冲击的影响是经济增长有些放缓，通货膨胀有些上升。同样地，如果战争仅持续两个月，经济增长将会放缓，通货膨胀会上升，但幅度是适中的，今年我们依然有可能实现高于潜在水平的增长，虽然通胀会高于目标水平，但情况还算可以。如果战争持续三、四个月或更长时间，那么对经济增长的负面影响将会更强，通货膨胀的影响以及通货膨胀预期都将会更高。
For now, the markets and the Fed are thinking this is going to not last very long, that's why the Fed is on hold, they're not going to cut rates because there's impact on inflation, but they're not going to raise rates. But if the war were to last longer, and inflation, and inflation expectation become the anchor, then the Fed instead of cutting rates, even a war spread will be forced to increase rates. And markets right now are starting to price, not a cut by the Fed, not on hold, but actually the likelihood of increasing the Fed funds rate is increasing because people are starting to worry that this war is going to last longer than initially expected.
目前，市场和美联储认为这场情况不会持续太久，这就是为什么美联储暂时按兵不动的原因。他们不会降息，因为会对通胀造成影响，但也不会加息。不过，如果战争持续较长时间，并且通胀和通胀预期成为关注的重点，那么即使战争进一步扩大，美联储也可能不得不加息而不是降息。现在，市场开始预期的不是美联储降息，也不是维持利率不变，而是加息的可能性正在上升，因为人们开始担心这场战争会比最初预计的持续更久。
So markets are starting to price in a Fed hike rather than being on hold or a cut. No, I've been getting a lot of forecasts recently from Wall Street on oil prices, and everyone I see by large, they expect oil prices to stay above $100 a barrel for the next few months, at least to the end of April. What's your biggest concern from an economic standpoint if that in fact happens? Is that the tipping point that gets us into a recession? Not necessarily.
市场开始预期美联储会加息，而不是保持不变或降息。最近我收到很多华尔街关于油价的预测，大多数人预测油价在未来几个月至少到四月底都会保持在每桶100美元以上。从经济角度来看，如果这种情况真的发生，您最大的担忧是什么？这是否会成为引发经济衰退的临界点？不一定。
I would say that if it stays above $100 until end of April, the impact on inflation is greater, and the impact on growth is also somehow greater, but it's not enough. If then after April, we go back to oil, not like it was before, there'll be a risk premium, but 10, 15% higher, then there is, as I said, some slowdown of growth this year, there is some increase in inflation, but for now a recession is not my baseline. By the way, the US is a net oil and energy exporter.
我会说，如果价格保持在100美元以上直到四月底，对通货膨胀的影响会更大，对经济增长的影响也会更大，但这还不够。如果之后，四月过后，油价回落到过去水平，有10%到15%的风险溢价，那么就像我说的，今年的经济增长会有所放缓，通货膨胀会有所上升，但目前我不认为经济会衰退。顺便提一下，美国是石油和能源的净出口国。
There are still distributional effects because the winners are oil producers and the losers are consumers of oil in the industrial sector and or among the households, but the US is a strategic reserve. He can use fiscal policy to try to reduce the impact by reducing the federal tax at Don Gasoline. It could even tax the winner, it distributes to those who are left behind, could restrict exports of LNG and oil to increase the supply at home. There is a gap between what's happening to Brent and what's happening at WTI.
尽管存在分配效应，因为赢家是石油生产商，而输家则是工业部门和家庭中的石油消费者，但美国是一个战略储备国。它可以利用财政政策通过减少联邦燃油税来尝试减少影响。它甚至可以对赢家征税，并将收益分配给那些落后的人，还可以限制液化天然气和石油的出口以增加国内供应。布伦特原油和WTI原油之间存在差距。
So compared to Europe and compared to Asia, the economic impact is going to be smaller for the United States because the terms of trade effect is positive on that for the economy. Nurell, you mentioned the Federal Reserve. How likely? Can you assign a probability to the Fed actually hiking interest rates this year? This wasn't even remotely in the cards coming into this year. Everyone expected several rate cuts.
与欧洲和亚洲相比，由于贸易条件的影响对经济是正面的，美国所受的经济影响将更小。Nurell，你提到了美联储。那么，美联储在今年真的加息的可能性有多大？你能给这个可能性赋予一个概率吗？进入今年时，这种情况根本不在预期之中。大家本来都预测会有几次降息。
That's been completely unwound. How likely is that by now assuming that the Kevin Worsh Fed later this year? Well, my baseline is one of the feds staying on hold and maybe towards the end of the year, doing the one rate cut that was Plenzildin in the SAP production of the dot-lot of the feds. Markets for a while thought there would be two rate cuts. Now that's out of the question.
这已经完全取消了。考虑到今年晚些时候可能由凯文·沃什领导的美联储，你认为这有多大可能呢？我基本的预期是，美联储会维持现状，可能在年底的时候进行一次降息，这是之前在美联储点阵图中设想的。市场之前一度认为会有两次降息，但现在看来这是不可能的。
I would say the baseline in the highest probability of the sun is being on hold and maybe a rate cut towards the latter part of the year. A rate cut earlier I think is totally how to say highly unlikely even if the economy were to weaken significantly because inflation is higher. There is no argument for the fed cutting rates. Even in the latest FMC, even the Dolves like Diane Bowman and Chris Waller did not vote for a rate cut now.
我会说，目前最有可能的情况是，利率保持不变，并且可能会在今年后期降息。我认为即使经济显著疲软，提前降息也是极不可能的，因为通胀较高，美联储没有理由降低利率。即便是在最新的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，即使是像黛安·鲍曼和克里斯·沃勒这样的鸽派也没有投票支持现在降息。
The only one was Steve Miran and even if Worsh comes to power, it is not going to have a majority for cutting rates. So it's a 10% probability of a rate cut not most, 60% probability of staying on hold to September October and maybe at this point a 30% probability that the war lasts too much and too long and all prices staying higher even beyond April in which case then the fed would high grades by the middle of the year. Whether it's a power still there and Worsh is confirmed or not, it doesn't matter. If inflation expectation gets the anchor, the fed will be forced to raise rates.
唯一的例外是史蒂夫·米兰，即使沃什上台，也无法获得削减利率的多数支持。因此，降息的可能性大约是10%。有60%的可能性利率会在9月到10月之间保持不变。目前看来，有30%的可能性战争会持续得过久，导致价格持续走高甚至到明年4月之后，这种情况下，美联储可能会在年中加息。不管沃什是否被确认上任，只要通胀预期失控，美联储就会被迫加息。
But to me it's a tail risk at 30% scenario. Do you think the fed, Noriel, just needs to get comfortable with this year being a year of a stack-flationary economy? Well, it depends on what we mean by stack-flation. When the negative aggregate supply shock growth is lower, inflation is higher. But there are three types of inflation higher. One is when you have a temper increase in the price level and it fades away. The second one is when there is a permanent increase in the price level, but inflation and inflation expectations are not the anchors.
对我来说，这是一个30%可能性的极端风险情景。你认为美联储或者诺里尔（Noriel）需要接受今年作为一个停滞性通货膨胀经济的年份吗？这取决于我们如何定义停滞性通货膨胀。当负面的总供给冲击导致经济增长放缓、通货膨胀上升时，就出现了这种情况。但通货膨胀上升有三种情况。一种是价格水平暂时上升，然后逐渐消退。第二种是价格水平永久上升，但通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期并没有成为基准。
And third one is when not, there is a rise in inflation rate and inflation expectation. In the first two cases the optimal response is to wait and see and stay on hold. Not to cut rates, not to increase them. But if instead inflation, inflation expectation becomes the anchored, a fed is forced or an insettlement is forced to raise policy rates. Otherwise you have a permanent increase in inflation expectation. So we don't know yet whether we're going to be in that third scenario. It depends on how long the world lasts and for how long all prices are going to stay well above $100 per barrel.
第三种情况是，当通胀率和通胀预期上升时。在前两种情况下，最佳应对措施是观望并保持不动。不降低利率，也不提高利率。但如果通胀和通胀预期变得不稳定，美联储或决策者将被迫提高政策利率。否则，你会面临通胀预期的永久性上升。因此，我们尚不清楚是否会进入第三种情境。这取决于当前局势持续多久，以及油价会在每桶100美元以上保持多长时间。
Noriel, I was thinking back to a conversation you and I had probably two years ago at Davos. It feels like yesterday. We were talking about AI at the time. I think we expressed some concern how AI will impact the economy. But since then, I mean the AI rollout and development, it has gained serious speed. A lot of leaders that I talk to are now literally replacing thousands of human beings with AI agents. How concerned are you about the impact of the economy and the white collar workforce?
诺里尔，我想起大约两年前我们在达沃斯的一次谈话，感觉就像发生在昨天。当时我们在讨论人工智能。我记得我们对人工智能如何影响经济表达了一些担忧。但从那时起，人工智能的发展和推广速度加快了。我与之交谈的许多领导者，现在实际上正在用人工智能代理取代成千上万的人力。你对人工智能对经济和白领劳动力的影响有多担忧？
Well, I become an optimist in terms of potential growth. My view is that US and China are ahead in these 15 different sectors and technologies of the future. It's not just they hide the whole other industries that are related to AI that are separate verticals. All of them are going to be benefiting from this productivity growth. So in my view, US potential growth by the end of the decade is going to be about 4 percent, the double of what it's right now. Because of that, the inflation is going to be lower. So that's the fundamental that's going to occur over the next few years.
我对未来的潜在增长持乐观态度。在我看来，美国和中国在未来的15个不同的领域和技术方面处于领先地位。这不仅仅是因为他们引领的各个单独行业与人工智能相关联，这些行业都将从生产力增长中受益。因此，我认为到这个十年结束时，美国的潜在增长将达到4%，是目前的两倍。因此，通货膨胀会降低，这就是未来几年要发生的基本趋势。
So from that point of view, I'm optimistic. Now initially, the demand for labor is going to increase actually rather than reduce because you need to build all the data centers and all the jobs that are related to AI and new AI firms and startups and you name it. In the long run, of course, you get a massive increase in productivity and you start to see job shedding. Something we're already seeing right now among some of the more advanced big tech and max 7 firms. But we're not seeing it yet at the, how to say aggregate level.
所以，从这个角度来看，我是乐观的。最初，对劳动力的需求实际上会增加，而不是减少，因为需要建设所有的数据中心，以及那些与人工智能、新的AI公司和初创企业相关的工作。在长远来看，生产力会大幅提升，工作岗位也会逐渐减少。我们已经在一些更先进的大型科技公司和顶尖企业中看到这种情况。但在整个经济的总体水平上，这种现象目前还不明显。
The weakness in the labor market has been driven more in the last year by supply of labor because we have aging of population and we have restriction of migration rather than really falling demand driven by AI. And in the short term, AI is going to increase the demand for labor. But over the medium-long term, of course, there'll be massive amount of labor shedding. But we already have a mint tested UBI system of progressive taxation, redistribute those left behind. And if growth goes from 2 to 4 and 10 years from now to 6 or 10 percent by 2050, that's a good problem to have because with 10 percent growth and say 80 percent unemployment, you can essentially tax the winter and redistribute and make everybody else better off, even if socially and politically that's going to be problematic.
过去一年里，劳动力市场的疲软更多是由劳动力供应问题造成的，因为人口老龄化和移民限制，而不是由于人工智能导致的需求下降。在短期内，人工智能将会增加对劳动力的需求。然而，从中长期来看，肯定会出现大量的劳动力流失。不过，我们已经有一个基于渐进税制的经过检验的基本收入（UBI）体系，可以重新分配给那些被落下的人。如果经济增长从现在的2% 到10年后的4%，再到2050年的6%或10%，其实这算是个有利的问题。因为即便失业率达到80%，在10%的经济增长下，你可以对成功者征税，然后再分配，以改善其他人的生活状况，尽管这在社会和政治上可能会引发问题。
So long term and I'm an optimist. But in the short term, some of the staccatulation resources we worry about, including geopolitical conflict, globalization and other things, may slow down growth and increase inflation rather than the opposite coming from technology. The disadvantage is a positive aggregate supply shock, increasing growth and reducing inflation. So it's a tug of war between short term staccatulation resources and a long term secular boom driven by technology.
从长远来看，我是个乐观主义者。但是在短期内，我们担心的一些因素，比如地缘政治冲突、全球化等，可能会放缓经济增长并导致通货膨胀上升，而不是像技术推动的那样相反。缺点是这些因素给经济带来了负面的供给冲击，抑制了增长和抬高了通胀。因此，目前的情况是短期内这些不利因素与长期由技术驱动的经济繁荣之间的拉锯战。
No, it's always so good to see you. Safe travels wherever you're headed. I appreciate you coming on. Great seeing you. Thank you. Pleasure. Opening bid is known for big moments with Top execs and this week is no different. Tomorrow, I should say the CEO of Zillow stops by as his company holds a closely watched New York City investor day with a 30-year mortgage rate back on the rise as Kabul comes an important moment for the U.S. housing market. Meanwhile, I have a special new podcast dropping on Thursday at ADM Mercedes Bencio. You will not want to miss this one, especially if you own Mercedes inspired to own one or just love cars. Stick around. Much more ahead on your old fun.
不，总是很高兴见到你。无论你要去哪里，希望旅途安全。感谢你的到来。很高兴见到你。谢谢。这是我的荣幸。Opening Bid因与高层管理者一起迎接重大时刻而闻名，本周也不例外。明天，Zillow的首席执行官会来我们这儿，该公司将在纽约市举行备受关注的投资者日活动，而30年期抵押贷款利率再次上涨，这对美国房地产市场是个重要时刻。同时，我将在星期四发布一个特别的新播客，叫做《8AM Mercedes Bencio》。你绝对不想错过，尤其是如果你拥有梅赛德斯、渴望拥有或者只是热爱汽车。切勿走开，精彩内容即将到来。
All right. Welcome to Market Catalyst on Yahu Finance. We'll cut that part out. I'm I was on the 30 minutes into the trading day here. Let's take a look at the major averages on this Tuesday morning. We got lower across the board yesterday. We saw stocks open up about 2% and fade through the session, really closing right near session lows, continuing that grind lower, let's say, from the pop we saw to start the week, really 7 o'clock yesterday morning. We got that post from President Trump about the five-day cessation in hostilities in the Middle East, really coming in from those levels.
好的。欢迎收看雅虎财经的市场催化剂节目。我们会剪掉那部分。我是在今天交易日的30分钟时加入的。让我们看看这个星期二早上的主要平均指数。昨天市场整体下跌。我们看到股票开盘时上涨了大约2%，但在交易过程中逐渐回落，收盘时接近平盘，为本周初的反弹之后继续下挫。实际上，昨天早上7点我们收到了特朗普总统关于中东五天停火的消息，从那时起市场就开始回调。
Dow Jones, industrial average, down about 6.10. It's kind of uniform performance here among the majors. S&P 500, a slight outperformer, down 5.10 of 1%. Prestandard market, let's say, lower, nothing super notable right now. We'll see how things shake out through the session. But again, it feels to me at this point like we've got a two-day extended move here. I've just slowly fading some of those headlines that we saw come into the market to begin the week. Let's stay on the markets. Talk a little bit more about everything going on. Joining me now, Dave Mazza, he is the CEO at Round Hill Investments. He's here in studio and Brent shooting joins us. He is from Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, CIO over there.
道琼斯工业平均指数下跌约6.10点。在主要股指中表现基本一致。标普500稍微表现较好，下跌0.51%。目前市场预开盘阶段较低，没有特别显著的变化。我们将看看交易时段内的情况如何变化。但此时我的感觉是市场已经持续两天的波动，慢慢消化周初的一些市场新闻。让我们继续关注市场，稍微多谈一些当前的行情。现在加入我们的是Round Hill Investments的CEO戴夫·马扎（Dave Mazza），他在演播室和我们一起。布伦特·舒廷（Brent Schutting）也加入了我们，他来自西北互助财富管理公司担任首席投资官。
Gentlemen, thanks for stopping by. Brent, I want to start with you and just kind of get your read on maybe like one number, one data point, one market that you and your team are looking at right now. To kind of just ground yourself, to get a sense of what's the trend, what's the vibe out there, what's one thing that you can kind of point to and say, all right, let's stay focused here and we'll get a sense of what the next week month looks like if we just watch this number. I think it's all about interest rates. So people are fixated on oil, which certainly is kind of the catalyst for rates moving higher. But where rates go in the future is going to determine how the economy shapes up and determine where the markets go.
先生们，感谢你们的光临。布伦特，我想先从你开始，了解一下你和你的团队目前正在关注的某个数字、数据点或市场。为了让自己有个基础，了解一下趋势和整体氛围是什么，有没有什么东西是你可以指出来说，好吧，让我们专注于此，观察这个数字，我们就能了解下周或下个月的情况。我认为这一切都与利率有关。人们对石油很关注，它确实是利率上升的一个催化剂。但未来利率的走向将决定经济的形态，并决定市场的走向。
And that's where the real risk is because the economy the past few years has been narrow. You've had the rate sensitive parts harmed versus the AI parts that weren't harmed. And that's where if you think about it now, AI needs more debt to be brought to life. And that's where rising rates and tightening credit spreads potentially up in the economy overall. You know, David's interesting that Brent goes to rates because the first question I wanted to ask you was about something you flagged we discussed yesterday, which is P.E. multiple for the stock market has really compressed.
这就是风险所在，因为过去几年经济一直相对狭窄。利率敏感的行业受到了打击，而人工智能领域没有受到影响。这也是为什么，现在如果仔细考虑，人工智能需要更多的债务才能真正实现。而这可能会导致利率上升和信贷利差收紧，进而影响整体经济。你知道的，大卫，有趣的是布伦特谈到了利率问题，因为我想问你的第一个问题就是关于我们昨天讨论过的你提到的一个问题：股市的市盈率大幅缩小。
And we're really seeing an interesting dynamic now where the underlying fundamentals of a lot of the biggest companies remain positive. But what investors want to pay for that has really come in over the course of this year. Yeah, no, I think Brent's point on interest rates is certainly incredibly valid in a big big driver of the moves we've seen in the last week. But if you take a step back and try to look at the signal through all of the headline noise that we're seeing today is actually valuation multiples across the market, particularly for some of the mega cap, mega cap names, the magnifs and seven names are much more attractive today than they were six months ago coupled with the fact that actually since this conflict started, we've actually seen earnings estimates across the market increase.
我们现在确实看到一个有趣的动态：许多大公司的基本面依然良好，但投资者愿意支付的价格却在今年内有所下降。我非常同意布伦特关于利率的观点，这无疑是我们在过去一周观察到市场波动的一个重大推动因素。如果退一步，从当前的新闻噪音中寻找信号，我们今天看到的是整个市场的估值倍数，尤其是一些市值巨大的公司，现在比六个月前更具吸引力。再加上自这场冲突开始以来，实际上的市场收益预期也有所增加。
So fundamentally, for now, the picture actually looks quite strong. So for investors kind of with a longer term outlook, even with all the uncertainty out there, it's certainly a more attractive entry point from my point of view than it was a few months ago. Well, I guess to follow up on that quickly, so do you feel like an environment where we saw what the S&P got, 24, 26 kind of forward multiple? If we're down a couple turns today, do you still feel like investors are comfortable paying in that mid-20s, which is historically high, but had become historically normalized really over the last five or 10 years?
基本上，目前来看，整体形势实际上相当强劲。因此，对于那些具有长期投资视野的投资者来说，即使存在各种不确定性，从我的角度来看，现在的入市时机无疑比几个月前更有吸引力。那么，快速跟进一下，你觉得在我们看到标准普尔指数前瞻市盈率达到24或26倍的环境下，如果今天降了几个百分点，投资者是否仍然愿意接受这个中20几倍的水平？这一水平在历史上虽属较高，但在过去五到十年中实际上已经成为常态。
Well, that's the thing. If you look at longer term valuation multiples, we know this is not a cheap market, and I'd be hard pressed to try to convince everyone listening today that it is. But if you look at sort of recent history, it's certainly not on the higher end of where those multiples have traded. And one of the reasons why the market has traded at higher multiples today than it has historically is simply the fact that companies are more profitable and generating more revenue. Now, it's been incredibly bifurcated of where that revenue is coming from. It's been coming from a concentrated portion of the market, the market general, so many of since seven, less so in kind of the real economy stocks.
好，那就是问题所在。如果你从长期估值倍数来看，我们知道这个市场并不便宜，而我也很难说服今天的听众认为它是便宜的。但如果你看近期的情况，它显然不是在这些倍数的最高点之一。市场今天的估值倍数比历史上的要高的原因之一仅仅是因为公司更盈利，并且创造了更多的收入。不过，这些收入的来源非常不均衡，主要集中在市场的一小部分，而不是广泛的实体经济股票。
And so when investors end kind of trying to parse all that through together, especially looking at sort of an incredible amount of uncertainty and question marks compared to the rhetoric and what's actually happening potentially on the ground in the Middle East. I think that's one of the reasons why investors are probably not necessarily buying the dip as we've seen every other time before. And, you know, Brent, another factor around why investors aren't buying the dip is what we're seeing or not seeing or can't really count on when it comes to the Federal Reserve. Now last week we heard from Jay Powell. I think his comments were a little bit of a surprise to market.
当投资者试图将所有这些信息拼凑在一起时，特别是在中东地区出现极大的不确定性和疑问，与言辞和实际情况可能出现的差异相比，我认为这就是为什么投资者可能不像以往那样趁低买入的原因之一。另外，布伦特，还有一个因素是投资者不趁低买入的原因，那就是我们对美联储的行动所看到或者未看到的情况，或无法真正依赖的情况。就在上周，我们听了杰伊·鲍威尔的讲话。我觉得他的评论让市场有些意外。
How sanguine in my view, at least, he seemed as it relates to inflation. It also just feels their brand like structurally, there's a lot of uncertainty about what this Fed even looks like in three or six months time. Yeah, I agree. There's a lot of uncertainty about what the Fed does and what they may not do. I think they're missing on both sides of their mandate. And that's the big risk right now. Inflation hasn't been at their 2% target for five years now. And we have made no progress the last two years. Inflation is the same today as it was at the end of 2023, based upon PC on a year of your basis.
在我看来，他对通货膨胀的态度似乎非常乐观。此外，就像是从根本上感觉到，对于未来三到六个月美联储的情况，有很多不确定性。是的，我同意，对美联储会做什么或者不会做什么存在很多不确定性。我认为他们在履行职责的两个方面都出现了问题。这是目前的重大风险。通货膨胀率已经五年没有达到他们设定的2%的目标。过去两年里我们没有取得任何进展。根据个人消费支出(PCE)的同比数据，通货膨胀率与2023年末时相同。
And it's probably going higher this month. On the other side, the labor market is weak. I think Jay Powell called it an uncomfortable balance. And that's where I just think right now you have a lot of uncertainty about which way monetary policy goes. I've called the economy a delicate balance. I think monetary policy is a delicate balance. And this is where I encourage people back to what the other guest said to think about valuation. I don't think the S&P 500 is cheap. This is where if you're thinking longer term small and mid cap stocks traded the same valuation discount they did a large cap back in 1999.
这可能在本月变得更高。另一方面，劳动力市场疲软。我想杰伊·鲍威尔称其为一种不舒适的平衡。在这个情况下，我认为目前关于货币政策走向存在很大不确定性。我称这个经济为一种微妙的平衡。我认为货币政策也是一种微妙的平衡。在这种情况下，我鼓励人们回到另一位嘉宾提到的去思考估值问题。我不认为标普500指数便宜。在这种情况下，如果你考虑长期投资，小型和中型股票的估值折扣与1999年大型股票的折扣相似。
A very similar time period. And I encourage people to think outside of that S&P 500 which is everyone's favorite because it's done well the past few years. This is where we saw broadening before the conflict. And even today as a conflict kind of still continues small mid cap stocks have not deviated or gone down much more than their large cap counterparts. I think this continues in the future and that's where I would encourage people to think about investing. So then Brent I guess coming into this year you know something we discussed a lot on this program.
一个非常相似的时间段。我鼓励大家不要只关注大家最喜欢的标普500指数，因为过去几年它表现得很好。之前冲突发生时，我们看到市场的广泛增长。即使在如今冲突依然持续的情况下，中小型公司股票并没有比大型公司股票下降得更多。我认为这种趋势会在未来继续，所以我建议大家可以考虑在这个领域进行投资。那么，布伦特，对于今年的投资策略，这也是我们在这个节目中经常讨论的话题。
We had a lot of investors come through and say geographic diversification really was a reminder 2025 was a reminder this needs to be part of portfolio as you're talking a little bit there about kind of size diversification. Does it feel to you like the conflict has in some ways merely accelerated trends that we were already seeing on where investors want to be positioned? I don't know I mean I guess to me I think about geographic diversification as being more international I think that's what you're referencing. And certainly the past year the dollar has been a tailwind because the dollar faltered so US dollar based investors had their returns accentuated.
我们有很多投资者反馈说，地理多元化确实让他们意识到2025年是一个提醒，要将其纳入投资组合中。这就像你提到的规模多元化。这场冲突是否在某种程度上只是加速了我们之前已经看到的投资趋势？我不知道，但对我来说，我认为地理多元化更倾向于国际化，我想这就是你所指的。而且，过去一年，由于美元疲软，对以美元为基础的投资者来说，收益得到了提升。
This year certainly the conflict impacts overseas much more than it does the US given their dependence on oil that moves to the straight and the dollars moved higher. I do think longer term the dollar's direction is still lower and that's why I would encourage people despite the conflicts and the risks that are out there to think about international diversification because I do think if the dollar falters just a bit not a comment that it won't be the reserve currency that's where I think you'll continue to get some of those accentuated returns in the future.
今年，冲突对海外的影响显然比对美国的影响更大，因为海外国家对经过海峡运输的石油依赖较大，而美元的升值也发挥了作用。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，美元的走势依然是走低的。因此，尽管存在冲突和各种风险，我仍然鼓励人们考虑国际多元化投资。因为我认为，即便美元略有下滑，这并不是说它不会再是储备货币，但你可能会因此在未来获得更高的回报。
And then Dave last one to you just thinking about some of the dynamics we've seen specifically as it relates to the AI trade this year you know you referenced the mag seven those were the winners of the first let's say phase phase and a half of the AI trade and we've seen I mean companies like a sand disc right Western digital micron these stocks they feel like they kind of go up every day you've also seen losers on the software side how are you thinking about the way that this trade plays out now against a pretty dynamic you know geopolitical background which maybe you say is essential to the AI trade but certainly it weighs on sentiment. Do you feel like it's an accelerant is it not matter and how do you see you know AI over the balance of 26.
然后，戴夫，最后一个问题给你，关于我们今年在AI交易中看到的一些动态。你提到的“MAG七巨头”是AI交易第一阶段或阶段半的赢家。我们看到了一些公司，比如说Sandisk、Western Digital和美光，感觉它们的股票几乎每天都在上涨。另一方面，我们也看到一些软件方面的输家。在一个相当复杂的地缘政治背景下，你如何看待这场交易的展开？你可能会说地缘政治对AI交易是至关重要的，它确实影响了市场情绪。你觉得这个背景是加速因素吗？是否无关紧要？你又如何看待AI 在2026年的整体发展？
What's interesting I think to your point sort of in phase one of the AI trade it was it was quite easy you you buy a video and you actually did quite well then maybe phase one and a half to use your term was then brought out to the hyper scaler so is it worth. I met a yeah exactly those that were investing in data centers and sort of building the framework for AI now it's changed where investors are now parsing through to what I kind of call the invisible winners although based off of their stock performance they become much more visible those are memory and storage stocks so companies like micron aging companies like sand disc s j high next and now some of these storage names that have been around for some time but have been forgotten about sand disc is I think the prime example of that let alone western digital and others but actually there's a reason why they're they're they're doing quite well is in order for all all this spending to actually work you can't just have a GPU as powerful as it is or many of them unless you have the memory chips to sort of make them work and then the storage chips chips to actually store all that data at the back end so we think the AI trade is still we're very bullish on it longer term structurally but investors do need to be comfortable with the fact that actually it's evolving quite rapidly it's not necessarily going to be an either or anymore all right appreciate the time Dave Mazza friend Shirley thanks to stop and buy on this Tuesday morning.
有趣的是，在AI交易的第一阶段，投资者往往只需购买NVIDIA的股票就能获得不错的收益。而在“阶段一又一半”，这种趋势扩展到了大型云服务提供商，因为他们在投资数据中心、构建AI框架。但现在情况发生了变化，投资者开始注意那些“隐形赢家”，虽然根据股票表现来看，它们越来越显眼了。这些赢家主要是内存和存储类公司，比如Micron（美光）、Aging、SanDisk和SK Hynix等。有些像SanDisk这样的公司可能被遗忘了一段时间，甚至还有Western Digital等，但它们表现出色是有原因的。因为要让所有这些投资真正发挥作用，仅有强大的GPU是不够的，还需要内存芯片来配合运算以及存储芯片来保存所有的数据。所以我们对AI交易的长期结构性持乐观态度，但投资者需要适应快速变化的市场环境。投资未来不再是非此即彼的选择。感谢Dave Mazza和Shirley在这个星期二早上抽出时间来访。
I come up here on Yahoo Finance we'll have all the latest from Sarah week down in Houston you're watching market catalyst welcome back I'm Julie Hymon here at the Sarah week by S&P Global Conference in Houston Texas where as you might imagine the Ron war is top of mind for almost everyone here in the effect on global prices oil prices and the global economies I'm here with Paul Groenwald he is S&P Global ratings global chief economist so obviously you're paying a lot of attention right to this also Paul we got S&P PMI's this morning which is a measure a survey of what's going on how people are feeling about the economy we saw that at the lowest in almost a year right how are you thinking what you're late is thinking about the effect that all of this is going to have on on the economy right.
我在雅虎财经上来为您带来休斯顿的Sarah Week会议的最新动态。欢迎收看《市场催化剂》，我是Julie Hymon，我们正在德克萨斯州休斯顿参加由S&P Global举办的Sarah Week会议。如您所料，乌克兰战争及其对全球油价和全球经济的影响是这里几乎每个人最关心的问题。我这里有S&P Global评级的全球首席经济学家Paul Groenwald，所以显然您对此也特别关注，对吧？另外，今天早上我们得到了一些数据，S&P采购经理人指数（PMI）调查显示人们对经济的感受，这个数据达到了近一年来的最低点。您怎么看待这一切对经济的影响呢？您的最新想法是什么？
Well first of all this is a supply shock not a demand shock right in a demand shock activity drives the prices in a supply shock the high prices drive down activity so we're looking for evidence that activity is slowing the PMIs are a great example of the soft data we expect the soft data to weaken and then we're going to get the official hard data later but we had weaker US this morning we weaker Europe overnight so we're starting to see the first evidence of that but I think the direction of travel is pretty clear and until we get all of this sorted out okay so you're looking at what's going on in sort of phases so you talked about the supply shock there's the sort of you talked about a flow shock a supply shock and then the market shock and then the market okay so yeah our energy guys who are sponsoring this conference they've got a three kind of phase model the first phase is the flow shock that's the shutting of the straight we know the chips are trapped on both sides those oil deliveries are kind of reaching their ports now and you can kind of manage that through inventories if we were to end this now we were get a temporary bump in prices and maybe a little bit of weakness and growth but it would sort itself out.
首先，这是一个供应冲击，而不是需求冲击。需求冲击中，活动会推动价格上升；而供应冲击中，高价格会压低活动水平。所以我们正在寻找活动放缓的迹象，采购经理人指数（PMIs）就是一个很好的“软数据”例子。我们预计这些软数据会减弱，然后我们会获得官方的“硬数据”。今天早上美国的数据较弱，昨晚欧洲的数据也较弱，所以这是我们第一次看到这种迹象。我认为这个趋势是相当明确的，直到我们解决所有问题。
你提到供应冲击，实际上可以分为几个阶段：流动冲击、供应冲击以及市场冲击。我们这次会议的赞助商——能源领域的专家们，他们提出了一个三阶段模型。第一阶段是流动冲击，这指的是航道关闭，目前船舶被困在两边。尽管这些油品现在正在到达港口，但你可以通过库存来管理这一情况。如果现在结束这个阶段，将会有一个暂时的价格上涨，也许会导致一些经济增长的疲软，但这一切会自行调整。
We're now going to the supply shock where you know some countries won't be able to get the oil they need except it very expensive prices if you're a producer like the US you're probably reasonably insulated a lot of stocks like China and Japan Korea you're reasonably insulated but now we're focusing on which countries are not producers they don't have the stocks the focus seems to be on South Asia and some of the global South those Brent and WTI indices or benchmarks you know they're showing global sort of benchmark prices some of the spot prices locally are much higher than that but that's the next that's the next stress point well and there's been a lot of talk about my worth of chevron. talked about this yesterday on stage here the difference between those physical spot prices what people are actually paying to get the oil itself and what's going on in the futures market and out the curve which is showing some optimism going forward and he said maybe that's going to change and that's a theme I've been hearing repeatedly here from you from your colleagues from other folks the conference that maybe the markets are a little too optimistic about this ending quickly.
我们现在正进入供应冲击阶段，你知道，有些国家无法以便宜的价格获得所需的石油，除非是一种非常昂贵的价格。如果你是像美国这样的生产国，你可能会被很好地隔离，一些国家像中国、日本和韩国也有一定的缓冲能力。但现在我们关注的是那些不是生产国、没有库存的国家，重点似乎在南亚和全球南方。Brent和WTI这些指标显示了全球基准价格，但实际的本地现货价格要高得多，这是下一个压力点。关于这个问题，人们谈论了很多Chevron的价值。昨天在这里的一个舞台上，他谈到了那些实际的现货价格，也就是人们为获取石油而支付的价格，与期货市场和期货曲线上的走势之间的区别，这些走势显示未来可能会有乐观的变化。他说，也许这会改变，这是我在这里反复听到的主题，来自你的同事和会议上的其他人的观点，可能市场对于这一情况会很快结束持有过于乐观的看法。
Yeah that's definitely a narrative I think there's a tension this conference is mostly engineers and if you go to like the IMF World Bank those are mostly finance people and as our oil guys like to say oil is not like a faucet you can't just turn it on and off back on so there's lags of bringing production back on and you know I think there's a lot more caution on the physical side of bringing this back up quickly even if we get a resolution and we're going to try to reflect that in some of my team's forecasts that are coming out this week but that's definitely a risk we need to take into account even if we can manage to resolve this it's going to take weeks of not months to get the production back up and sort out getting the production up getting the ships in the right places etc so this is not just flipping the switch and we're back to you know pre-arranged conflict macro.
是的，这绝对是一种说法。我认为现在有一种紧张氛围，因为这个会议主要由工程师参加，而像国际货币基金组织和世界银行这样的会议主要是金融人士参与。正如我们的石油专家常说的，石油和水龙头不同，你不能随意开关。因此，要恢复生产会有一定的时间滞后。即使我们解决了问题，我认为在恢复生产的实际操作上仍需更为谨慎。我们将试图在本周发布的一些团队预测中反映这一情况。即使我们成功解决问题，恢复生产可能需要数周甚至数月的时间，比如把油轮调到正确的地方等。所以这不是一个“开关一按，我们就回到冲突前的宏观经济状态”的简单过程。
So how dire or how high is the risk of recession that we would need the final phase we talked about those two phases the flow phase is supply says then there's the market phase so again if we go back to what we just discussed we've got the engineers and the supply guys the industry guy saying one thing the market says the other thing one of those views is wrong right and if the market reprices this whole scenario right you get a sell-off market prices drops spreads blow out you know capital stops flowing to emerging markets we get the flight to quality people stop spending being and then we get into sort of a global recession scenario that's the hard downside that's kind of a narrative scenario right now but if we don't resolve this and this goes on for months that is going to become a more likely scenario.
那么，我们谈论的最终阶段需要多大的经济衰退风险呢？我们之前提到过两个阶段：流动阶段是供应方面的，然后是市场阶段。所以再次回到刚才讨论的话题，工程师和供应方的行业人士说一回事，而市场的声音又是另一回事，这两者中的一个肯定有误。如果市场重新定价整个局面，就会出现抛售，市场价格下跌，利差扩大，资本流向新兴市场的速度会停止，人们会转向高质量投资，停止消费，这样我们就可能陷入全球经济衰退的情景。这是当前一个比较悲观的叙述情景。但是，如果我们不解决这一问题，让它持续数月，那么这种情况成为现实的可能性会增加。
Okay so so how are you sort of gaming it out are you are you and your team saying okay if this last one month here's what it looks like if it last two more months here's what it you know is that I'm roughly I mean I think you know that's not an ex that sequence is not an exact linear order but I think that's roughly where where we are and the narrative so for right now we've got a sort of conservative baseline it's probably close to financial consensus but we are definitely flagging that if this goes on and we go into this supply phase and then into the market phase things to get worth so we're on a we're on a sort of a scenario now where the baseline probability shrinking a bit it we're putting more weight in the downside and you know if we need to go there we will we will change if that's where the market goes.
好的，那么，你和你的团队是怎么规划的呢？是不是在说，如果这件事持续一个月，会是什么样子；如果再持续两个月，又会是什么情况？我大致明白你的意思，我觉得这种情况的发展不是线性的，但大体上，我们就是这样来分析的。现在，我们有一个相对保守的基准，这可能与金融共识接近，但我们也明确指出，如果事情继续发展并进入供应阶段，然后进入市场阶段，情况可能会变得更糟。因此，我们现在处于一种情景，基准的可能性在缩小，我们更倾向于关注下行风险。如果市场走向需要，我们会做出相应的调整。
So the other question that is now really bubbling into the market is what the Fed is going to do what is going to be the prolonged effect on inflation if there is going to be any and is there a chance that the Fed will actually have to raise rates right so we're putting on a forecast tomorrow so I will give you some directional guidance and some narrative but I think the you know sort of the rate cutting narrative is pretty much off the table for two reasons one although energy is not a core part of the the price index it will seep into the core through airline prices restaurant prices transport prices etc so inflation is going to go up at the headline level and the core level we want to make sure inflation expectations are anchored we know that central banks were a bit late to get going in 23 and 24 so you know we're dialing back the the Fed the Fed you know narrative.
现在市场上一个非常热议的问题是，美联储将会采取什么措施，以及如果采取措施，对通胀的长期影响会是什么。此外，美联储是否可能不得不提高利率也是一个关注点。我们将于明天发布预测，所以我会给你一些方向性的指导和解释。但是，我认为关于降息的讨论基本上已经被排除，主要有两个原因。首先，虽然能源不是价格指数的核心组成部分，但它会通过机票价格、餐厅价格、运输价格等渗透到核心通胀中，所以整体和核心通胀都会上升。我们希望确保通胀预期得到锚定。我们知道各国央行在2023年和2024年行动有点迟缓，所以我们正在调整关于美联储的一些预期。
The ECB has been pretty clear Christine Lagarde's already saying that you know we're very cognizant that last time we were late to go so now the market's got the ECB's next move is up the feds are much closer call but I think this whole narrative that we were late in the cut we were sort of toward the mature part of the cutting cycle a few more to go I think central banks are very much on wait and see whole wait and see mode right now and you know a lot of cuts we had you know put into the forecast or not being taken off.
欧洲央行（ECB）已经很明确了，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）已经表示：“我们很清楚上次动作迟了，所以现在市场认为欧洲央行的下一步是加息。” 美联储的前景可能更复杂，但我认为，这个“我们在减息方面动作迟缓”的说法，已经处于减息周期的成熟阶段，还剩下几个步骤。 我认为，目前各国央行基本上都处于观望状态，我们之前预计的很多减息措施现在并没有被取消。
I also got to ask you a question that's a little more personal to us I guess an immediate task and that's our travel plans yes to get out of Houston because as you know with the TSA not being funded a lot of people are out and the Houston the main Houston airport is viewed as one of the worst airports for wait times in the country so I'm curious if there's any sort of economic impact from all of this that you're thinking about there's sort of the hassle element now but I think some people decide they're not going to travel right if flights are more expensive and the fuel gets passed on to airport prices and then you can't get to the airport.
我也想问你一个对我们来说更个人的问题，就是我们目前的紧急任务——我们的旅行计划。是的，我们要离开休斯顿。因为正如你所知，由于美国运输安全管理局（TSA）没有得到资金支持，很多人无法工作，而休斯顿的主要机场被认为是全国等待时间最长的机场之一。所以我很好奇，这是否会对经济产生影响。现在有一个麻烦的因素，但我认为如果机票价格上涨，燃油成本增加并转嫁到机场费用上，有些人可能会决定不旅行，甚至无法去机场。
I mean that's a decent chunk of the U.S. economy maybe it's more of a sectoral story so if you're a sectoral airline analyst your fuel is more expensive your passengers aren't showing up at the airport that could be a downside risk to those guys but yeah this is showing up in all kinds of places that we haven't seen and you know it's our job and others job this sort of you know makes sense of all of it track it out and look at where we're going and flight the risks and that's kind of where we are what day are you going home I'm going to visit my mom and Oklahoma on Friday so I've got a short trip and then I'll go back to New York.
这就是说，这是美国经济的一个相当大的部分，也许更多的是一个行业故事。如果你是一名航空行业的分析师，你会发现燃料变贵了，而乘客没有出现在机场，这可能对他们来说是一个潜在风险。但这种情况确实在我们从未见过的各种地方显现出来。我们和其他人的工作就是去理解这一切，追踪并观察我们的发展方向以及面临的风险，这就是我们现在所在的阶段。你哪天回家？我周五要去俄克拉荷马州看我妈妈，所以这趟行程比较短，之后我会回到纽约。
Okay well maybe things will you're leaving tomorrow my friend you might be in a little bit more risky situation than I am yeah yeah I'm building in a lot of time we'll see a good luck thank you thank you thank you so much well I'll expect to you all right Julie maybe I will see you tomorrow maybe well you let me know as the day goes on all right coming up we're going to take a look at some of today's trending ticker stay tuned we're watching market counts.
好的，也许事情会有所变化。你明天要离开，我的朋友，你可能会处于比我更冒险的境地。是的，是的，我安排了充裕的时间再看看。祝你好运，谢谢，非常感谢。好的，Julie，也许明天能见到你，也许吧。当天有什么变化，你告诉我。待会儿我们将看看今天的一些热门股票，敬请关注，我们在关注市场动态。
All right time out for some of today's trending tickers we are watching jeffries esth a lotter and tesla first up jeffries stock trading higher after a report from the financial times said that japan's smfg was weighing a buyout of the investment bank now a later report from bloomberg said smfg japan's second largest lender has no immediate plans to take over jeffries and cmbc setting sources later reported that jeffries has no interest in selling the firm company is set to report its quarterly results on wednesday march 25th.
好的，我们来暂停一下，看一下今天的一些热门股票。我们关注Jefferies、雅诗兰黛和特斯拉。首先是Jefferies。据《金融时报》的一份报告显示，日本的SMFG正在考虑收购这家投资银行，这使得Jefferies的股票价格上涨。然而，彭博社后来的一份报告称，日本的第二大贷款机构SMFG并没有立即接管Jefferies的计划。此外，CNBC援引消息人士的话报道，Jefferies对出售公司没有兴趣。公司计划在3月25日星期三公布其季度业绩。
Next up esth a lotter in talks to merge with spanish beauty company pouges pouges is a family controlled and as a family controlled company and owns popular brands like biorado and charlotte tilbury the merger would create a cosmetics giant with a combined market cap of about 40 billion dollars the talks are continuing and there is no guarantee that the companies will reach a deal and finally tesla seeing a sales rebound in europe the evey-makers European sales rising nearly 12% year.
接下来，Estée Lauder 正在与西班牙美容公司 Pouges 商谈合并。Pouges 是一家家族控股公司，拥有像 Biorado 和 Charlotte Tilbury 这样受欢迎的品牌。合并后将诞生一个市值约400亿美元的化妆品巨头。目前，谈判仍在进行中，尚无保证双方会达成协议。最后，特斯拉在欧洲的销售情况出现反弹，这家电动车制造商在欧洲的销售额增长了近12%。
over year in february it marks the first time the company's european sales have risen on an annual basis since late twenty twenty four gold prices now below forty five hundred dollars per ounce despite the uncertainty around the conflict in iran yahu finances josh lipton spoke spoke to max baker american heart for gold president about the latest moves you point out here max gold we broke below this key support and the fifty day what do we i guess what do we make of this max how do we explain it what why isn't gold acting more like your classic safe haven right now a great question everyone you know expected gold to rise with the the war kicking off and obviously it's it's fallen quite a bit about a thousand dollars off the all-time high here and you know it's really has to has to do with the oil you see oil go up above a hundred dollars of barrel that really gets some people's head that now the fed singing about pausing or maybe been raising interest rates.
在二月份，这家公司的欧洲销售额首次在年度基础上上升，自2024年底以来首次如此。尽管发生了伊朗冲突的不确定性，现在黄金价格每盎司低于4500美元。雅虎财经的乔什·利普顿采访了美国黄金协会主席马克斯·贝克，讨论了最新的市场动向。马克斯，这里提到金价跌破了关键的支撑位和50日均线，我们应该如何解释这一现象？为何黄金现在没有表现出典型的避险资产特征呢？
这是个好问题。大家都期望战争开始时黄金会涨，但是显然它已经下跌了不少，大约从历史最高点下跌了1000美元。这实际上与石油有关。当石油价格超过每桶100美元时，这确实让有些人感到紧张。如今，美联储在考虑暂停或者调整加息。
to fight future inflation so it's really an oil story right now and you know until we can get oil prices uh to come down those interest rate cuts are going to be off the table and that dollar is going to continue to rise you put it like this on the gold market max you're so tactically nervous but still structurally long-term bullish why why still structurally long-term bullish on the metal yeah this is kind of a short short-term move but all the fundamentals are in place that you know caused a 70% rally in gold last year you still have central banks buying up gold at record pace you have record debt record money printing and there are still many that expect interest rate cuts at the end of this year with worse taking over and may or suspected to take over and may so all the fundamentals are still very much in place for a healthy healthy gold price.
为了应对未来的通货膨胀，现在的关键在于油价。你知道的，只有当油价下跌，利率的下调才有可能，而美元将继续走强。在黄金市场方面，Max，你在战术上非常谨慎，但从结构上看，你对长期还是看好，为什么呢？为什么从结构上仍然长期看好黄金呢？这其实是一个短期的波动，但所有导致去年黄金价格上涨70%的基本面因素仍然存在——央行在以创纪录的速度购买黄金，债务和纸币的印刷量也创下新高，并且很多人预计今年年底会有降息。同时，形势似乎在恶化，可能会在5月接管市场。因此，所有基本面因素仍然支撑着黄金价格维持在一个健康的水平。
what would you need to see max to say okay maybe that maybe that structural long-term thesis is at risk here what would be on your radar to watch yeah i think you'd need to see inflation really uh rise you know four five six percent i think you need to see the government get money printing under control our debt situation under control and uh those are some things that uh i just don't see happening max in terms of levels you're watching here closely say 4900 to 5000 that range why why that range max what about those levels yeah i think you know that's that's kind of where we need to be right now uh to show you know that gold has staying power you know got a lot of major banks out there that are predicting gold to be at 6200 you got UBS saying 6200 JP Morgan Wells Fargo saying 6300 so you know if we can get above the the 5,000 dollar level i think that will kind of ease some investors and nerves here going into the summer.
在考虑长期结构性假设是否可能面临风险时，你会关注哪些指标？我认为你需要看到通货膨胀显著上升到4%、5%、6%的水平。你还需要看到政府把货币印刷和债务问题控制住。这些是目前我认为不太可能出现的情况。在你密切关注的水平上，比如说介于4900到5000这个区间，为什么选择这个范围呢？我认为现在我们需要达到这个范围，以显示黄金的持久力。目前有很多大银行预测黄金价格将达到6200美元，你看UBS预测6200美元，JP Morgan和富国银行预测6300美元。因此，如果我们能突破5000美元这个水平，我认为这将有助于缓解一些投资者在进入夏季时的紧张情绪。
so max let's kind of bottom line this for a viewer let's have watching this i'm a long-term investor do you say hey right now i would take kind of cautious or no do you argue this is a good moment to step in you know i think this is a great buying opportunity obviously you know i'm in the gold business but you know if you had a lot of clients that have been waiting for a pullback in opportunity to get into metals obviously we had silver up 140 percent last year gold up 70 percent last year and needed uh to kind of cool off a little bit i think this is a great entry point with with fundamentals still very much in place so you're in the gold business you said they're max what is the price where we are right now max what does that imply about you know potential gold miners profitability over the next few quarters yeah it's a great question you know every gold miner's a little different every company basically has a price that it costs them to get the the metal out of the ground and you know it varies based on each operation but you know that's that can be anywhere from uh 1700 to three thousand dollars an ounce but you know each company has has that set price that it costs them to get it out of the ground and obviously the higher the gold price the more profitable they are the higher margin they have final question Matthew we've been talking about silver i'm just curious get your thoughts on silver both now and ahead what do you see yeah we were uh we're about fifty dollars off the all-time high which is just a few months ago so you know if you're looking for an entry point or looking for something that's that's cheap you know relatively speaking where we're a few months ago i do think silver is wildly undervalued obviously you know we had the big rise 140 percent last year a lot had a lot to do with China saying they're no longer going to sell their silver they produce 70 percent of the world silver so i i think silver is a great value by right now max great to have you on the show today appreciate it yeah thank you so much i come up we're going to talk to caterpillar's head of power and how a i demand is fueling that business you're watching market catalyst here on Yahoo Finance you Welcome back.
好的，Max，我们来为观众总结一下。如果我是一个长期投资者，你会建议我现在保持谨慎，还是认为这是一个合适的时机进入市场？我认为现在是一个很好的买入机会。显然，我从事黄金业务，但如果你有很多客户一直在等待市场回调以进入贵金属市场，这是一个很好的时机。去年的白银上涨了140%，黄金上涨了70%，市场需要稍微冷却一下，我认为现在是进入市场的好时机，因为基本面依然很强劲。
你说你在黄金行业，Max，那么现在的价格意味着未来几个季度黄金开采公司的盈利能力如何？这是个好问题。每个黄金开采公司都不同，每家公司都有一个成本价来获取金属，具体根据每个项目的不同而有所变化，大约在每盎司1700到3000美元之间。每家公司都有各自的成本价，显然，金价越高，公司就越有利可图，利润空间也越大。
最后一个问题，Matthew，我们一直在谈论白银。我想听听你对白银的看法，现在以及将来你怎么看？我们距离历史最高价还有大约50美元，这也不过是几个月前的事情。所以如果你在寻找一个切入点或者想找到一些相对便宜的投资，我确实觉得白银被严重低估。去年大幅上涨140%很大程度与中国不再售卖其生产的白银有关，他们生产了全球70%的白银。所以我认为现在购买白银是个很好的选择。
Max，很高兴你今天能参加我们的节目，感谢你。非常感谢。接下来，我们将与卡特彼勒的电力部门负责人讨论人工智能需求如何推动这项业务。您正在观看Yahoo Finance的市场催化剂节目，欢迎回来。
I'm Julie Heim in here at the Sarah Week by S&P Global Conference. And as we've been talking a lot about this week, we're sort of focused on two main factors. One, the Iran War and the reshaping of the global energy markets. And two, the vast need for power right now, particularly because of AI and data centers, but also just a general need for increasing power. I'm joined by Jason Kaiser, he's a caterpillar group president of power in energy. So a lot to say about these various topics. And really appreciate you joining us. Yeah, great to be here. Thank you.
我是朱莉·海姆，目前正在参加由标普全球（S&P Global）主办的塞拉周（CERAWeek）会议。本周我们讨论了很多，在这里主要关注两个关键因素。首先是伊朗战争及其对全球能源市场的重塑。其次是当前对能源的巨大需求，特别是因为人工智能和数据中心的影响，同时也由于整体对能源需求的增长。今天和我一起的还有杰森·凯瑟，他是卡特彼勒公司在能源领域的集团总裁。在这些话题上他有很多见解。非常感谢你的参与。是的，很高兴能在这里，谢谢。
So I do want to start with the war because there are a lot of ripple effects on a lot of different kinds of businesses. And I'm wondering, you guys do have some business in the Middle East, in the oil and gas sphere and elsewhere. What have you been seeing there? Have you had to move your people around to ask us through that effect? Yeah, I mean our priority has been on our employees safety top to this point.
所以我确实想从战争开始说起，因为战争对各种类型的业务都有很多连锁反应。我想了解一下，你们在中东有一些业务，包括在石油和天然气领域以及其他地方。你们在那边看到了什么情况？你们是否需要调整员工的工作地点来应对这种影响？是的，我的意思是，到目前为止，我们的首要任务是确保员工的安全。
So lots of efforts there to keep people safe. We have people throughout the region. From a customer standpoint, business and oil and gas as well. It's a little bit of a wait and see with the customers. So we're not sure. They're not sure how it's all going to play out. We want to be there to help serve them as we understand as it becomes more clear. And what about like the servicing that you would do in that region is that it's still going on. I imagine those are long-term contracts. They're not necessarily affected by the short-term what's going on.
为了确保人们的安全，我们在这方面投入了大量的努力。我们的员工遍布整个地区。对于客户，尤其是商业和石油天然气行业的客户来说，现在的情况有点需要观望。因此，我们和他们都还不确定局势会如何发展。但我们希望能够在情况逐渐明朗时，继续为他们提供服务。至于在该地区的服务，我们的工作是持续进行的。我想那些都是长期合同，因此不会直接受到短期内发生的情况影响。
But what are you seeing there? Yeah, I mean we do service the equipment. We're there to take care of it, keep it up, running and reliable. We're putting safety first as we make those decisions and making them with our customers. But there's definitely a priority there on helping the customers continue to be successful as they make the decisions on whether they run or not as well. On the flip side, I've been hearing a little bit of talk here that what's happening in the straight-offermuse and the choking off of oil supplies and energy supplies there is sort of reinforcing the need for energy security.
但你在那里看到了什么？是的，我的意思是，我们确实在维护设备。我们在那里是为了照顾设备，确保其正常运行并且可靠。在做这些决策的时候，我们把安全放在首位，并且与客户共同制定这些决定。但优先考虑的肯定是帮助客户继续取得成功，即便是在他们决定是否继续运行的情况下。另一方面，我听到一些人在谈论，直接切断石油供应和能源供应的情况，似乎增强了对能源安全的需求。
And I wonder if you're hearing that from clients. If they were considering a project that is not going to be reliant on those types of fuel inputs, if now they're sort of doubly convinced or if that's helping you as you make your pitch to clients. Yeah, I think it's a little bit early to know how that's all going to play out over time. We play a key role across the value stream. So we serve oil and gas customers all the way from bringing the product up through the ground, moving it through pipelines and then burning it to make power.
我想知道您是否从客户那里听到了这些反馈。如果他们正在考虑一个不依赖这些类型燃料输入的项目，那么现在他们是否更加坚定，以及这是否在您向客户推介时有所帮助。是的，我认为现在判断这些事情将如何在未来发展还为时过早。我们在整个价值链中扮演着关键角色。我们服务于石油和天然气客户，从将石油和天然气从地下开采、通过管道输送到最终用于发电。
So we're getting a lot of inputs right now. We think ultimately that's going to be a very important part of it. How do we have not only more power but reliable power over time? It's a big part of what we do is ensuring that happens with our customers. Speaking of it being early, I'm also curious if you're hearing anything from your clients domestically in the US about increasing their production and increasing orders from you in order to make that oil and gas production happen.
我们现在收到了很多反馈意见。我们认为从长远来看，这将是非常重要的一部分。我们不仅需要更多的动力，还需要长期可靠的动力。这是我们工作的重要部分，确保我们的客户能够实现这一目标。说到目前阶段还比较早，我也很好奇，你有没有听到美国国内客户的消息，他们是否有增加生产或增加订单的意向，以促进石油和天然气的生产。
Yeah, we were in a very good market when it comes to oil and gas even before the war in the situation. So we see that can trim, trim continuing gas compressions have been a real highlight for us. Our customers are pulling for product, more product to help move the gas. It's going to be needed for LNGs, going to be needed to create more electricity with the moving and electricity market that we're seeing.
是的，即使在战争前，我们的石油和天然气市场已经非常好。因此，我们看到天然气压缩行业表现亮眼。我们的客户正在要求更多的产品来帮助运输天然气。这对于液化天然气（LNG）和增加电力生产是必需的，特别是在我们看到电力市场正在发展的情况下。
I'm also curious on the cost side for you guys. You're already facing increased cost from tariffs, right? $800 million. I believe is the total cost from tariffs in the first quarter. Are you now seeing increasing costs as well because of some of the supply constraints that are happening with the with the straight?
我也对你们的成本问题感到好奇。你们已经面临关税带来的成本增加，对吧？第一季度的关税总成本是8亿美元。我想知道，由于某些供应限制问题，你们现在也看到成本在增加吗？
Yeah, we're working to understand the cost in the supply chain kind of a daily activity right now. No huge impacts that we're talking about so far, but we'll continue to to understand, continue to look at it closely. Okay, let's talk more about the data center picture for you guys. We were just talking in the break about a panel that you were on yesterday with the CEO Duke Energy and talking about some of your partnerships there.
好的，目前我们每天都在努力了解供应链成本的情况。目前还没有发现特别大的影响，但我们会继续深入了解，密切关注这一点。那么，我们来详细谈谈你们的数据中心情况。刚才休息时，我们聊到你昨天参加的一个小组讨论会，与Duke Energy的CEO一起谈论你们的一些合作项目。
Energy really seems to power, really seems to be the bottleneck when it comes to these AI data centers. So where do you see us on that spectrum of breaking up that bottleneck and making it happen? Yeah, we it absolutely is. I mean, as we talked to data and I've worked with data center customers for a number of years. Our business historically was a lot of backup power for the data centers.
在这些人工智能数据中心中，能源确实是一个关键因素，也确实是瓶颈。那么您认为我们目前在解决这个瓶颈并实现突破的进展如何？是的，这确实是个问题。正如我们提到的，我与数据中心的客户合作了多年，我们的业务过去主要为数据中心提供备用电源。
We've seen that change in the last year or so where they're asking us for different kinds of primary power because they can't hook up to the utility. And in that case, sometimes it's a bridge. So help us for a short period of time to bridge the power until the utility can be ready and we have products on wheels we can we can bring up quickly and make that a solution.
在过去的一年左右，我们观察到了一些变化，他们要求我们提供不同类型的主要电源，因为他们无法连接到公共电网。在这种情况下，有时我们需要提供临时解决方案。所以，我们帮助他们在短时间内提供电力过渡，直到公共电网准备就绪。同时，我们有可以快速部署的移动产品，可以作为解决方案。
Other times it's more of a midterm solution. They want us to deliver and sometimes now they're asking us just to build a power plant with them at the side of the data center and be the primary power source for the foreseeable future. So we're excited about that. It's been great for us and we have a lot of great solutions to serve that no matter which of those solutions they're looking for.
有时这更像是一种中期解决方案。他们希望我们交付，有时甚至要求我们在数据中心旁边与他们一起建造一个发电厂，并作为未来的主要电力来源。我们对此感到兴奋。这对我们来说非常有利，并且无论他们寻找哪种解决方案，我们都有很多优秀的解决方案可以提供。
And you guys have been booking a lot of orders on this front. I think it's four orders of at least a gigawatt each if I if I have that right. And so you guys are doubling your turbine capacity in order to meet that. So we talked about what the bottleneck is for them. I'm curious what where the constraints are for you because if you're doubling capacity, you know, is it, are you finding the labor they need? Are you finding the materials you need? Talk me through that process.
你们在这方面接了很多订单。我想如果我没记错的话，有四个订单每个至少一吉瓦。为了满足这些需求，你们正在将涡轮机的产能翻倍。因此，我们谈到了他们的瓶颈问题。我很好奇，你们面临的限制是什么？因为你们在扩大产能，那么你们能找到所需的劳动力吗？你们能找到所需的材料吗？请给我讲讲这个过程。
Yeah, we so we're we are doubling our large engine capacity and we're more than doubling our turbine capacity between now and the end of the decade. So lots of work there. We're heavy in execution mode. You know, some of its within our own facilities, upgrading equipment, adding new equipment within our facilities to be able to build more. But a lot of it's in the supply base.
好的，我们正在加倍提高我们大型发动机的产能，并且在现在到本世纪末之间，我们的涡轮机产能将增至两倍以上。所以我们有很多工作要做。目前我们正处于全力执行的阶段。有些工作是在我们自己的设施内进行，比如升级设备和添加新设备，以便能生产更多产品。但很多工作是在供应链中进行的。
So we're out with suppliers, understanding what their bottlenecks are, working with them to invest to get the parts and the components that we need to build more product. So working it on multiple fronts, but having a lot of success so far, it's going really well. And you know, yours is the fastest growing part. It's now the largest part of catapultage business.
我们正在与供应商合作，了解他们的瓶颈所在，并与他们携手投资，以便获取我们需要的零部件来生产更多的产品。所以我们在多个方面同时努力，目前取得了很大的成功，进展非常顺利。而且，你的部门是增长最快的，现在已经成为弹射业务中最大的一部分。
You know, people who think of catapillars as sort of earth moving company, right? You guys are really now a power and energy equipment company. That's the biggest part of the business, the fastest growing part of the business. So how do you see, you know, further leveraging that growth up over the next couple years? Is it just that the demand is out there and it's just a matter of meeting in that demand?
你知道，有些人可能认为卡特彼勒公司只是一家土木工程公司，对吧？事实上，你们现在主要是以动力和能源设备为主的公司。这是业务中最大且增长最快的部分。那么，未来几年，你们计划如何进一步利用这种增长呢？是否仅仅因为市场需求存在，你们只需满足这种需求呢？
Yeah, I think it speaks really well to catapillar and the diversity of catapillar and all the things that we're able to do across the machine business and now our power and energy business that we have. A lot of it's execution in our space. So we've set the targets with capacity. We've set some bold growth goals in our investor day last fall and we're head down and executing.
是的，我认为这很好地体现了 Caterpillar 的多元化，以及我们在机械业务和我们现在的电力和能源业务中能够做的各种事情。这很大程度上取决于我们在这个领域的执行力。因此，我们已经设定了产能目标。在去年秋天的投资者日上，我们制定了一些大胆的增长目标，现在我们正全力以赴地执行这些目标。
We see the demand there, not just power generation, but also strong and oil and gas and gas compression and so serving customers, having the right products, having the right solutions, taking care of them through the full lifecycle with them is what we're focused on. You know, I'm curious, as I've talked to people at this conference, there has been the sentiment among the oil and gas folks that maybe the market is underpricing the potential duration of this conflict at this point and then just was talking to economists if that if it does last longer than you talk about more economic concerns and the slow down potentially.
我们看到需求不仅仅在发电方面，还在石油、天然气和气体压缩上。因此，我们专注于服务客户，提供合适的产品和解决方案，并在整个生命周期中关注他们。我很好奇的是，在这个会议上和石油天然气行业的人交流时，大家都有一种感觉，认为市场可能低估了这个冲突持续的潜在时间。如果冲突确实持续更长时间，那就会有更多的经济问题和可能的经济放缓。
Do you think that things like AI contracts are somewhat recession proof or how do you think about that sort of economic sensitivity in your business? It's one of the great reasons to be here at the conference because you get so many different viewpoints on that. I was on a panel group around AI this morning, definitely positivity in that space and the AI space that doesn't seem to be waning as I am out talking with customers or talking to colleagues here this week. So you remain positive there.
你认为像人工智能合同这样的东西在某种程度上具有抗衰退性吗？或者你是如何看待你的业务对经济变化的敏感性的？在这个会议上能听到很多不同的观点，这是一个重要的原因。我今天早上参加了一个关于人工智能的小组讨论，显然这一领域充满了积极态势。我这周和客户交流或和这里的同事交谈时，这种积极性似乎并没有减退。所以，我对此仍然持乐观态度。
All right, Jason, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time here. Appreciate it. Thank you. Miles, send it back to you. All right, Julie, I'm in live from Sarah Weekdown in Houston. Appreciate that interview coming up. We're going to talk about how ad supported streaming platform Tubby plans to survive the AI age and the argument for why it's one of the most innovative companies of the year.
好的，杰森，非常感谢你。感谢你抽出时间。谢谢，迈尔斯，交给你。好的，朱莉，我在休斯顿的Sarah Weekdown现场。感谢那个采访。接下来，我们将讨论广告支持的流媒体平台Tubby如何在人工智能时代生存，并阐述为什么它是今年最具创新性的公司之一。
All right, Fast Company out with its picks for the most innovative companies of the year tech giants like Nvidia, Google and Theropic topping list. So included culture makers like Tubby, Nintendo and Reddit joining me now to break down what went into putting this issue together. We're joined by Brendan Bond. He is Fast Company's editor in chief also joined by Angelic Sood, Tubby's CEO.
好的，《Fast Company》发布了年度最具创新性的公司排行榜，科技巨头如Nvidia、Google和Theropic位居榜首。同时也包含了像Tubby、任天堂和Reddit这样的文化创意公司。现在与我一起分析这期内容的是Brendan Bond，《Fast Company》主编，以及Tubby的CEO Angelic Sood。
Friends, I want to start with you just on some of the top names here. We'll maybe go through the top five and kind of how your team thought about putting this list together over the balance of 2025. I guess it was. Yeah, so Miles, thanks for having me. The most innovative companies are biggest thing we do all year. It is our franchise program. It is a year round reporting project. Crunch time is in the fall, you know, into the early winter when we publish this, but we're working on this all the time.
朋友们，我想先跟你们聊聊一些重要名字。我们可能会先讨论一下前五名，并讲讲你们团队在2025年期间是如何考虑制作这个名单的。是的，Miles，谢谢你的邀请。最具创新性的公司是我们今年做的最重要的事情。这是我们的品牌项目，是一个全年持续进行的报道项目。每年秋季到初冬是我们的关键时期，因为我们在那时发布这个项目，但实际上我们一直在为此努力。
Innovation is our editorial north star at Fast Company and we have five covers this year. They're not the top five, but the covers are Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Angelic Sood who's here with us today, CEO of Tubby, Alex Cooper from the Call Her Daddy podcast, Steve Huffman from Reddit, and Ryan Coogler, director of "Black Panther" and the CEO of Proximity Media.
创新是《Fast Company》的编辑方向，今年我们有五个封面故事。虽然不是排名前五，但封面人物有：谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊、今天在场的Tubby首席执行官安吉丽克·苏德、《Call Her Daddy》播客的Alex Cooper、Reddit的Steve Huffman，以及《黑豹》导演兼Proximity Media首席执行官瑞恩·库格勒。
So it's diverse. That's the whole point. It's diverse across industry. It is our sort of core idea at Fast Company is that when you come to read us, you are getting ideas from across the entire innovation ecosystem, not just your own industry and very often those ideas apply to your work even if you don't, even if you wouldn't necessarily encounter those ideas in the course of your normal sort of industry media diet or in the course of your work.
所以它是多元化的。这就是重点。我们的核心理念是，当你阅读《Fast Company》时，你会获取整个创新生态系统中的各种想法，而不仅仅是你所在的行业。即使你在日常工作或行业媒体中不一定会遇到这些想法，但它们通常也能运用于你的工作中。
Yeah, we were chatting before and it's like, I love a good list and I love a list that goes AMD, Redwood Materials, Tubby and then it goes to BID. And the Onion is in there as well. I want to talk a little bit about Tubby and in this medium moment where we have seen, I think in my opinion, a lot of what Tubby's strategy kind of, it's kind of come to you guys. If I look at the way all these different media companies have hacked up their production, their rights, how they want to charge people for it, I feel like Tubby's value there as willing to take lots of content, willing to be ad supported has met the consumer in a place a lot of companies have moved out of.
好的，我们之前在聊天的时候，我提到自己很喜欢列清单，特别是一个包括AMD、Redwood Materials、Tubby，然后是BID的清单。还有《洋葱报》也在其中。我想谈谈Tubby，尤其是在现如今这个媒介时期，我觉得Tubby的策略取得了不少成果。如果看看各大媒体公司在如何处理他们的制作、版权以及收费方式的变化，我觉得Tubby在这方面的价值表现得很明显。它愿意接纳大量内容并通过广告支持的模式，正好迎合了很多公司已经不再关注的消费者需求。
Yeah, I mean, look, I think it was a contrarian bet at one point to say that the future of entertainment is free and on demand and is personalized and driven by choice. But yeah, I think in the last couple of years, we just see audiences more and more like this is what they want. By giving them what they want, you can build a really thriving business. And I think being recognized by Fast Company is a great validation that it's resonating with consumers.
是的，我的意思是，曾几何时，说娱乐的未来是免费、按需、个性化，并由选择驱动的，这种观点可能被认为是逆向思维。但在过去几年中，我们看到越来越多的观众对此表示认可。通过满足他们的需求，你可以建立一个非常繁荣的商业模式。而被《Fast Company》认可，是我们这种理念与消费者产生共鸣的绝佳证明。
So when you look at your catalog, what are the things that consumers are? Is it movies mostly, is it old TV shows, how is it breaking down in terms of those viewership trends? Well, I think what's interesting is it's everything. We have some of the best Hollywood movies. We have hundreds of Tubby originals. We have creator content. Some of the world's most popular creators are now putting their content on Tubby.
所以当你查看您的目录时，消费者主要在关注哪些内容呢？是电影为主还是老电视剧呢？这些观看趋势是如何分布的？我认为有趣的是，这实际上包含了所有类型的内容。我们有一些最佳的好莱坞电影，我们还有数百部 Tubby 原创作品。此外, 一些世界上最受欢迎的创作者现在也在 Tubby 上传他们的内容。
We just announced a partnership with TikTok to help short form creators. At Longform, we have video podcasters. We have live sports. And I think it really does come down to this bet that if you think... about entertainment, we no longer define that as just kind of Hollywood or television or movies, it's anything we choose to spend our time on. And that means for this next generation, we're competing with any other form of entertainment. So we have to make it as easy for them to access it. Yes, I like to think that, you know, we do this show linearly, we write stories linearly, but this will be consumed in kind of like interstitial time. Like it exists like in a vacuum and filling the vacuum right now is mostly AI around text and content. And I'm curious how you and your team have started to think about AI content creation. Are you scared of it? Are you okay with it? And what are creators telling you about how they want to incorporate it?
我们刚刚宣布与 TikTok 建立合作关系，以帮助短视频创作者。在 Longform，我们有视频播客，我们有现场体育节目。我觉得这实际上是一个赌注，如果你考虑娱乐，定义已不再局限于好莱坞、电视或电影，而是我们选择花费时间的任何内容。对下一代来说，这意味着我们的竞争对手可以是任何形式的娱乐。所以，我们必须让他们更容易获取我们的内容。是的，我喜欢认为我们以线性的方式制作节目，编写故事，但这些内容将被以一种片段化的方式消费。就像存在于某种真空中，而现在主要由围绕文本和内容的 AI 填补这些真空。我很好奇你和你的团队开始如何思考 AI 内容创作。对此你们是惧怕还是接受？创作者们向你们反馈了他们希望如何将 AI 融入创作吗？
I mean, I think for us, we believe in Longform storytelling. That's the content we put out. And actually what we hear from, you know, Gen Z Gen Alpha, they want cinematic long form storytelling. They also want the short stuff. But, but story telling isn't going away. And so, I think for us, what we are seeing from creators is many are experimenting with AI tools to help them make content faster, increase the quality and the production value of that content. And so, I think we hope that this will be a tailwind. And if you just think about it, if there's a lot more content that's going to be made, every single one of those stories needs to find its audience and its fans. And that's the role I think to be hopes to play.
我的意思是，我认为对我们来说，我们相信长篇故事叙述。这是我们推出的内容。而实际上，我们从Z世代和α世代那里听到的反馈是，他们想要电影般的长篇故事叙述。他们也想要短篇内容。但故事叙述不会消失。所以，我认为对于我们来说，我们看到很多创作者正在尝试使用AI工具，以更快地制作内容，提高内容的质量和制作价值。因此，我们希望这将是一个推动力。想想看，如果会有更多的内容被制作出来，那每一个故事都需要找到它的受众和粉丝。我认为这是我们希望能够扮演的角色。
One of the things that I really found insightful and interesting about our interview, Anjali, I interviewed Anjali for the issue was what you said about not following the herd kind of, you know, and it speaks to miles what you sort of said in your intro about the world was going, everything feels like it's hitting your credit card and there's a subscription fee, right? That's right. To be, and I forgot about it. It's pretty, right? Exactly. And you forget about there's apps to actually get that under control for people. Was just how much noise there is about like, oh, we're doing this cool thing. We're doing that cool thing. Oh, we better do that now, right? We have to keep up. Whereas the way that 2B has been run under Anjali's leadership is, no, we're going to do what we think is right for our audience. We're going to follow that signal and we're going to make something that is kind of this cross between sort of a TikTok style for you page, you know, interface and a traditional fast network and then throw in a little bit of traditional page streamer in there too with all the premium content that you guys have.
我在采访中发现非常有启发性和有趣的一点是，Anjali 谈到不随大流，这让我想起你的介绍中提到的世界发展趋势：似乎一切都扣在信用卡上，处处都有订阅费用，对吧？没错，而且我们常常忘记这一点。要控制这一现象，其实有一些应用程序可以帮助我们。当大家都在说“我们在做这个很酷的事情，我们在做那个很酷的事情，我们必须跟上”时，2B在Anjali的领导下却采取了不同的策略。她坚持做他们认为对观众有利的事情，遵循自己的方向，打造了一种结合了TikTok风格的个性化页面、传统快速网络界面，并加入了一些传统流媒体元素的平台，提供你们所有的优质内容。
Yeah, I'm curious like in that context, Anjali, how you think about, you know, the old re-hastings like we're competing with sleep and Netflix now has that they have that or Nielsen has the circle chart and Netflix does it as well of time spent on all these different services and 2Bs really started to show up in some of those places. Like when you think about form factor, I'm always surprised by how much YouTube is now being watched on televisions and 2B certainly to me feels like it lives on televisions but is this now like a cross platform? Like I, I mean, I'm on the commute, I'm on the, and it's just people watching shows on their phone. I guess it all kind of feels like it's merging to one screen in a way and that to me feels appetized to do. I don't know how you think about that.
好的，我很好奇在这种情况下，Anjali，你是如何看待的。你知道，像Re-Hastings曾说过，我们是在跟睡眠竞争，现在Netflix有那张或者说尼尔森有关于在各种服务上花费时间的圆形图表，而2B也开始在其中一些地方出现。就形式而言，我总是对现在有多少YouTube是在电视上观看的感到惊讶，而2B在我看来肯定是适合在电视上观看的，但这是不是已经变成一个跨平台的现象？就像，我的意思是，我在上班路上，周围人用手机在看节目。我觉得这一切都有点像是在向一个屏幕融合，而对我来说，这似乎是一个不错的发展方向。我不知道你是怎么想的。
Yeah, I mean, look, our job is to meet the audience wherever they are and that definitely includes not just the living room where we are predominantly but it includes mobile, it includes any surface and we are doing a lot. We did introduce a TikTok like feed in our mobile app for example because we know that people discover differently when they're on their commute and we do think we can offer a really great experience throughout that and you know, if you think about just what's happening in the entertainment industry, it is, there is a lot of a tendency towards gatekeeping and walls gardens and the more we can just provide that ubiquitous access and just make it easy.
是的，我的意思是，你看，我们的工作就是在任何地方与观众见面，而这不仅仅包括我们主要所在的客厅，还包括移动设备和任何其他平台。我们正在做很多努力。例如，我们在移动应用中引入了类似TikTok的动态，因为我们知道人们在通勤时的内容发现方式不同。我们相信可以在各个方面提供出色的体验。此外，如果你考虑到当前娱乐行业的情况，就会发现存在很多壁垒和封闭的平台。我们希望尽可能提供无处不在的访问，并让这一切变得简单。
Yeah. Just make it easy. How many of us have had a frustrating experience with binding what to watch or finding that the sports show, you know, game you want. We just got to make it easier and it sounds like a radically simple idea but it would appear it's innovative in today's world. Yes, exactly. I want to turn my TV on. I don't want to load the TV and then do the software all this up.
是的。就是让事情变得简单。我们中有多少人曾经在决定看什么节目或者找到想看的体育赛事时感到沮丧。我们只需要让这一切变得更简单。虽然这听起来像是一个非常简单的想法，但在当今世界却显得很有创新性。没错，正是这样。我只想打开电视，不想花时间加载电视软件。
Quickly before we go, what are you watching right now? Oh, well, we have a very exciting TV original that dropped called Kissing is the Easy Part. I'm a romcom girl so I'm a big fan and actually we've had a lot of success with finding some of these sort of young adult stories and will cast, you know, TikTok influencers and digitally native talents in these movies and I will say I'm not just saying it because I'm the CEO. It is really good. Check it out.
在我们走之前，你现在在看什么？哦，我们刚刚推出了一部非常精彩的电视原创剧，叫做《吻是最简单的事》。我特别喜欢浪漫喜剧，所以我是它的忠实粉丝。实际上，我们在发掘这些青少年题材的故事上取得了很大成功，还会在这些电影中选择TikTok网红和数字原生人才。我不是因为我是CEO才这么说，这部剧真的非常好。一定要去看看。
That's great. All right. I'm really Brendan. Thank you guys so much. Thank you. Stop and buy. All right, that's it for Market Catalyst. I'm Miles Oden. Thanks for watching. We'll have more on Yahoo Finance coming up after this.
太好了。好的。我真的是Brendan。非常感谢你们。谢谢你们停下来并参与。好的，这就是《市场催化剂》的全部内容。我是Miles Oden。感谢观看。稍后我们将在雅虎财经上带来更多内容。