Markets Weekly April 4, 2026

Hello, my friends. Today is April 4th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week was a very volatile week in markets, totally headline-driven. We even had a very interesting day where oil was up 10%, and yet the stock market was flat. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 remains below the 200-day moving average, and geopolitical risks continue to increase. So I think this is a very dangerous time in markets. All right, so today let's talk about two things. First off, we have to talk about the blowout jobs report on Friday, as well as interesting research from the Fed that helps us understand how the Fed is looking at the labor market. And secondly, we have to talk about the ongoing war in Iran, because it looks like we're steadily climbing Professor Pape's escalation ladder. A ground invasion of Iran appears imminent. And historically speaking, once you cross that decline, things accelerate, and they turn out oftentimes quite badly very quickly.

您好，我的朋友们。今天是4月4日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。上周市场波动剧烈，完全由新闻推动。我们甚至经历了一个非常有趣的日子，油价上涨了10%，但股市持平。最终，标准普尔500指数仍低于200日移动平均线，而地缘政治风险继续增加。所以我认为这是一个市场非常危险的时期。今天我们要讨论两个话题。首先，我们必须谈谈上周五的就业报告，这是一份相当出色的报告，以及美联储提供的有趣研究，帮助我们理解美联储如何看待劳动力市场。其次，我们必须讨论伊朗正在进行的战争，因为我们似乎在逐步攀升佩普教授所说的升级阶梯。对伊朗的地面入侵似乎迫在眉睫。从历史上看，一旦越过这道界限，局势就会迅速加剧，而且往往以相当糟糕的方式迅速演变。

All right, starting with the labor market. So just for some context, in February, we had a shockingly bad non-forms payrolls report. The market was expecting some degree of jobs growth, but instead we got a loss of 90,000 jobs in February. So that kind of changed the narrative a lot and got many people fearing that maybe we are heading into recession. So on Friday, the market was still expecting some degree of jobs growth. But what we got was far beyond anyone's expectations. 178,000 jobs created. Now we did further revise down the bad February number to even worse, 130,000 jobs lost in February. But that huge headline print on Friday just was very good. But more importantly, though, the unemployment rate ticked lower. And that's the number to watch.

好的，我们先从劳动力市场开始。为提供一些背景信息，2月份我们得到了一份非常糟糕的非农就业报告。当时市场原本预期会有一定程度的就业增长，但结果我们却在2月份失去了9万个工作岗位。这改变了许多人的看法，使得很多人担心我们可能正在走向经济衰退。 到了星期五，市场仍然预期会有一些就业增长。然而实际结果远超出任何人的预期，我们创造了17.8万个工作岗位。不过，我们也进一步下调了糟糕的2月数据，现在显示2月失去的工作岗位更多，达到13万个。然而，星期五那份引人瞩目的数据却非常好。更重要的是，失业率有所下降，而这才是值得关注的数字。

Now remember, the Fed's mandate is full employment and price stability. Price stability is super easy. We have these inflation indexes, and the Fed has a 2% PCE goal. Full employment is more difficult because the labor market changes over time. The Fed has been focused on the unemployment rate as the most important factor because there have been changes in the population. And with the unemployment rate ticking lower, the market immediately priced in a more hawkish path of policy. With inflation above target, if you want Fed cuts, you need the labor market to crack. And Friday's report was the opposite of that. Now with that in mind, we have very interesting research from the Fed helping us understand how the Fed could be looking at the labor market.

现在请记住，美联储的职责是实现充分就业和价格稳定。价格稳定相对简单。我们有这些通货膨胀指数，美联储设定了2%的个人消费支出（PCE）目标。充分就业则更具挑战，因为劳动市场会随着时间变化。美联储一直关注失业率作为最重要的因素，因为人口结构发生了变化。随着失业率下降，市场立即预测政策将更为强硬。由于通货膨胀高于目标，如果你希望美联储降息，就需要劳动市场出现疲软。但上周五的报告显示的情况正好相反。考虑到这一点，美联储提供了一些非常有趣的研究，帮助我们理解美联储如何看待劳动市场。

So at a high level, so the amount of jobs you create each month to maintain your unemployment rate has to have some link with your overall growth of your labor market, right? If you have a labor market, if you have a labor population that continues to grow, then you're going to need to continue to create jobs each month to maintain the unemployment rate. Now, this Fed research is looking at this labor force growth, and it's coming to an interesting conclusion. So over the past few decades, the labor force in the U.S. has steadily grown. Part of that was due to immigration. Part of that was due to boomers coming of age and thus joining labor force. But what's happening now is because the Trump administration has been enforcing immigration law.

从整体上来看，为了维持失业率，你每个月创造的就业岗位数量需要与劳动力市场的整体增长保持一定的联系，对吧？如果你的劳动力人口持续增长，那么你需要每月持续创造就业岗位以保持失业率。现在，美联储的研究正在关注劳动力增长，并得出了一个有趣的结论。在过去的几十年里，美国的劳动力一直在稳定增长。部分原因是因为移民，部分原因是婴儿潮一代成年后加入了劳动力市场。但现在的情况是，由于特朗普政府在严格执行移民法律。

So the amount of illegal immigrants entering into the U.S. has declined significantly. And because boomers are aging, and so for that cohort, their labor force participation rate is declining. And so the labor force actually this year is expected to not grow at all, or at least basically not grow. And if the labor force is not expected to grow, then that fundamentally changes your expectations as to how many jobs should be created each month. According to this research, the amount of jobs created each month that would maintain the unemployment rate is basically around zero. Obviously, if your labor force is not growing, then you really don't need to continue to grow jobs to increase job numbers to maintain your unemployment rate.

进入美国的非法移民数量已经显著减少。与此同时，因为婴儿潮一代正在老龄化，他们的劳动参与率正在下降。因此，今年的劳动力预计不会增长，或者说基本上没有增长。如果劳动力不增长，那么每月需要创造的工作数量预期也会发生根本性的变化。根据这项研究，每月创造的工作数量保持失业率不变基本上是零。显然，如果劳动力不增长，那么实际上不需要继续增加工作岗位来维持失业率。

So from that interpretation, even if we were to get a zero NFP print or slightly negative NFP print, that's not a cause for alarm. That's still in line with, say, no growth in labor force. Now, that being said, the totality of the data still suggests to me that the labor market is weakening. One way you can see this, of course, is the steady deceleration in wages. Again, there's quantity and there's price. And if wages are declining, that's obviously because labor demand is decelerating faster than supply. And also, if you look at the JOLTS report, for example, the number of job openings per person looking for a job continues to decline.

所以，从这个解读来看，即使我们看到非农就业数据（NFP）为零或略有下降，也不必惊慌。这仍然与劳动力市场没有增长相符。话虽如此，总体数据仍然让我觉得劳动力市场正在走弱。一个明显的迹象是工资的持续放缓。工资是数量和价格的体现。如果工资在下降，显然是因为劳动力需求的减速快于供应。此外，比如从JOLTS报告中可以看到，每个找工作的人对应的职位空缺数也在持续减少。

The labor churn rate continues to be very low, as low as it was in the depths of the Great Recession. So very clearly, a low fire and low hire environment. And also, interestingly, if you look at where the job growth has been the past year, you can see that it's basically entirely been in health care. Everything else has actually been losing jobs. So it seems like a lot of the job growth we've been seeing so far is just linked with demographics. You have boomers aging. And so there's more demand for health care services. So again, the unemployment rate is good. The jobs print is good. But I continue to think that the labor market is weak. And historically speaking, when it actually does crack, it happens in a very nonlinear fashion. And that's what was documented in the SOM rule. Or of course, Bill Dudley would also make the same observation as well. So, so far, at least, there is no reason for the Fed to be cutting on at least on behalf of the labor market.

劳动力流动率仍然非常低，低得就像在经济大衰退的深渊时期一样。显然，这是一个低解雇率和低招聘率的环境。而且有趣的是，如果观察过去一年的就业增长情况，可以看到几乎全部集中在医疗保健领域。其他行业实际上都在失去工作机会。因此，目前我们看到的大部分就业增长似乎只是与人口结构变化有关。因为婴儿潮一代在老龄化，对医疗服务的需求增加。因此，失业率表现不错，就业数据也很好看，但我仍然认为劳动力市场很弱。历史数据表明，当劳动力市场出现问题时，往往是以一种非线性的方式发生的，这在SOM规则中有所记载。当然，比尔·达德利也会有类似的观察。因此，至少到目前为止，美联储还没有理由因为劳动力市场的原因而降息。

All right, the second topic we have to talk about is, of course, Iran. So last week, full of headlines, and the president actually finally gave an address to the public giving an update on the Iran war. Let's take a listen. We are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong. So, obviously, there's been a big change in the rhetoric here. So in the beginning, it was all about regime change, liberating the Iranian people. A lot of the Iranian diaspora was cheering this, and I don't think they feel the same way. The rhetoric really has shifted to more of an outright destruction of Iran's industrial capacity. So the president has been talking about destroying their industry, destroying their power plants, and so forth. And like he said, sending them back to the stone ages.

好的，我们要讨论的第二个话题是伊朗。上周，新闻头条不断，总统终于发表了公开讲话，更新了有关伊朗战争的情况。让我们来听听。他说我们很快就会完成所有美国的军事目标，非常快。接下来的两到三周内，我们会对他们进行猛烈打击，把他们打回到石器时代。这显然是一个巨大的言论变化。起初，讨论的都是政权更迭、解放伊朗人民。许多伊朗侨民对此表示支持，但我认为他们现在的看法不一样了。措辞已经转变为彻底摧毁伊朗的工业能力。总统提到要摧毁他们的工业、发电站等等，正如他所说的，把他们送回石器时代。

Now, again, there's not a lot of consistency with the messaging here. Sometimes it's about seizing the uranium. Sometimes it's about getting the ballistic missiles. Sometimes it's about opening the Strait of Hormuz, and so forth. And so it's just, you know, it's just kind of a messy situation. Now, remember, there are three players at the table, and the United States, very inconsistent. But the other players have been a lot more consistent. Israel, of course, would like to destroy Iran. And Iran, of course, is not looking for a ceasefire. It's looking for a way to somehow inflict enough damage such that it won't be attacked every now and then. So that's been a problem for them. Now, one interesting development that I've noticed over the past few weeks is that every time the U.S. tries to have some kind of step down, having some kind of negotiation, the person they negotiate with, it gets killed by Israel.

现在，这里的信息传递并不一致。有时是关于控制铀，有时是关于获取弹道导弹，有时又是涉及开启霍尔木兹海峡等问题。所以，目前的情况有点混乱。要记住，这里有三方参与，而美国的立场非常不一致。但是，其他两方的表现相对较为一致。以色列当然希望摧毁伊朗，而伊朗并不在寻找停火，它在寻求一种方式以造成足够的损害，确保自己不会时常遭到攻击。这对他们来说是个问题。最近几周，我注意到一个有趣的现象：每当美国试图缓和局势并进行某种谈判，以色列就会杀掉美国谈判的对象。

So as we can see, even though the U.S. and Israel are on the same team, they have different goals. Now, the U.S., no one really knows what President Trump is doing over there. And of course, this is an unpopular war. But it seems like it's more and more difficult for them to get out because everyone they want to talk to gets killed. So again, it's both on the same team, but they don't have the same interests. Now, there have been some interesting developments the past few days, even though the President tells everyone that Iran's military capability has been totally demolished. Yesterday, we had Iranian air defenses shoot down a fighter jet, and it seems like they're still looking for one of the pilots. One of the pilots has been rescued, and the other one is still at large somewhere with efforts by the U.S. military to rescue that person.

所以，正如我们所看到的，尽管美国和以色列是在同一阵营，但他们的目标不同。现在，美国这边，没有人真正知道特朗普总统在那里做什么。而且，显然这是个不受欢迎的战争。但看起来他们越来越难脱身，因为他们想谈判的对象一个个被消灭。因此，虽然在同一阵营，但他们没有共同的利益。现在过去几天有一些有趣的发展，尽管总统告诉大家伊朗的军事能力已经被彻底摧毁。但是昨天，伊朗的防空系统击落了一架战斗机，目前似乎还在寻找一个飞行员。其中一名飞行员已经获救，而另一名仍然下落不明，美国军方正在努力营救这个人。

And the Iranians are also desperately trying to find him as well. Capturing a U.S. pilot would have a lot of propaganda value. And of course, Iran continues to fire missiles. Now, there's a leaked intelligence report, leaked to CNN, so again, take this with a grain of salt, that suggests that, you know, Iran actually still has about 50% of their missiles. This is always something that's going to be difficult to know, because a lot of Iranian capabilities are underground, and Iran is a very vast country. But again, Iran continues to fire missiles, and it continues to have heavily fortified positions. So it's not inconceivable that they still have a lot of missile capability and are really reaching for that long, long war of attrition.

伊朗人也在拼命寻找他。俘获一名美国飞行员将具有很大的宣传价值。当然，伊朗还在继续发射导弹。现在，有一份泄露给CNN的情报报告显示，伊朗实际上可能仍然保有大约50%的导弹。这种事总是难以确定，因为伊朗的许多能力都是地下的，而且伊朗是一个非常广大的国家。但无论如何，伊朗仍在持续发射导弹，并且拥有高度防御工事。因此，他们仍然拥有大量导弹能力，并准备进行漫长的消耗战，这并不是不可想象的。

If you look at oil prices, the ultimate tell here is that oil prices continue to trend higher. Now, as of recording, it looks like there's been more attacks on Iranian industrial capacity, including some petrochemical reductions. And that reliably has led to retaliation by Iran on Gulf state facilities. And so you can see this oil facilities, oil prices continue to rise.

如果你观察一下油价，最明显的迹象是油价在持续上涨。截至录音时，看起来对伊朗工业产能的袭击有所增加，包括一些石化设施的减产。这通常会导致伊朗对海湾国家设施进行报复。因此，你可以看到油价会继续上涨。

Now, there's some interesting work done by some analysts that suggest that in the coming weeks, that the oil market is going to hit an air pocket. So between the time the ships leave the Strait of Hormuz to when they land at their respective ports, that's a period of a few weeks. So over the past few weeks, the world has still been getting oil that was coming out of the Strait of Hormuz before it was closed. But next week and the week after, it seems to be a time where we could hear an air pocket where there's no more oil arriving from there.

现在，有分析师进行了一些有趣的研究，表明在未来几周内，石油市场可能会遇到一个“空窗期”。也就是说，从船只离开霍尔木兹海峡到达它们各自港口之间大约需要几周的时间。在过去的几周里，世界仍然在接收从霍尔木兹海峡运出的石油，因为那些石油是在海峡关闭前运出的。但是，下周和再下周，可能会出现一个时间段，在那段时间内我们可能会遇到一个“空窗期”，不会再有来自那里的石油到达。

That's partially buffered by stockpiles and so forth. But no, when that air pocket hits, you could have oil prices definitely react in a nonlinear way. And you could have governments react in a way they try to, I guess, manage this either through subsidies or through strong encouragement for work from home, take public transit or so forth. So the oil analyst people are very concerned about this.

这在一定程度上可以通过库存等方式缓解。然而，一旦出现油价冲击，油价可能会以非线性方式剧烈波动。政府可能会采取措施来应对，比如提供补贴或者强烈鼓励居家办公、使用公共交通工具等等。因此，石油分析师对此感到非常担忧。

And it seems like the market may not be correctly pricing just how big of an impact this could be. Now, the most important thing that I'm looking at right now is that it looks like by all accounts that the U.S. is preparing some degree of ground operation in Iran. So we talked about last week that the first installment of Marines have arrived. And a lot of reports suggest that more assets are being moved into the sector.

似乎市场可能并未正确评估这一事件可能带来的重大影响。现在，我最关注的一件事是，从各方面来看，美国似乎正在准备在伊朗进行某种程度的地面行动。上周我们提到，第一批海军陆战队员已经抵达。而且很多报告显示，更多的军事资源正在向这一地区移动。

An interesting tweet from President Trump yesterday suggests that, hey, you know what? Maybe a new goal in this war could be to take the oil. And of course, for that to happen, you really would need to have ground troops. Now, looking at Polly Market, you can see the odds of a ground invasion of Iran have surged to a very, very high level. It looks like 85% by the end of this month.

特朗普总统昨天发了一条有趣的推文，暗示说，也许这个战争的新目标可以是夺取石油。当然，要实现这个目标，地面部队是必不可少的。现在，看一下Polly Market的预测数据，可以看到入侵伊朗的可能性急剧上升，目前看来在这个月底前达到了85%的可能性。

We know this administration is an administration full of leakers and full of people who want to profit from the markets. So it looks likely that maybe someone knows and has been placing a big bet. So to be totally clear, a ground invasion into Iran is basically a suicide mission. If you look at this map, you can see why. Now, Iran is vast. It has a million-man army.

我们知道这届政府充满了泄密者和想从市场中牟利的人。因此，可能有人知道一些消息并进行了巨额投注。要完全清楚的是，对伊朗的地面入侵基本上就是一次自杀式任务。看看这张地图，你就会明白原因。伊朗幅员辽阔，拥有一支百万大军。

And the forces that you're sending in, maybe 10,000, 20,000 Marines, is just not going to be enough. So historically speaking, as we saw in Vietnam, when you send in these people, well, they suffer casualties, and they will suffer casualties. Obviously, the supply lines are so stretched. It's unfamiliar terrain. And of course, you have the entire Iranian people who are, you know, they're being invaded, right? They don't want the homeland to be invaded.

你派遣的部队，比如一万或两万海军陆战队，可能是不够的。从历史角度来看，比如在越南战争中，我们看到，当你派遣这些士兵时，他们会遭受伤亡，而这次也不例外。显然，补给线被拉得太长，地形又不熟悉。当然，整个伊朗人民正在面临入侵，他们不想让自己的家园被攻占。

So they're going to be fighting for their homeland. So logically speaking, that means the U.S. is going to have to reinforce these troops to protect them. And again, reinforcements begin more reinforcements. And just like Vietnam, maybe one day you wake up and you have a sizable contingency there. An interesting tell is that a couple weeks ago, the president requested a $200 billion supplement for the war in Iran.

他们将为自己的家园而战。因此，从逻辑上讲，这意味着美国将不得不增派部队以保护他们。而且，增援往往会带来更多的增援。就像越南战争一样，也许有一天你醒来时会发现那里驻扎了相当多的部队。一个有趣的迹象是，几周前，总统请求拨出2000亿美元作为对伊朗战争的补充资金。

And all that time, of course, he was telling everyone it was just two weeks. It was just two weeks. But then a $200 billion ask is not something that would end in two weeks. And of course, they're also having a very big request for military spending for the upcoming budget as well. Now, it wouldn't take the two weeks very literally. Two weeks in President Trump speak is just, it means nothing really.

当然，在整个期间，他一直在对大家说这只是两周的事。只是两周。然而，要2000亿美元的请求可不是两周能解决的事。当然，他们还计划在即将公布的预算中提出一项大规模的军事支出请求。现在，不要把这“两周”太当真。在特朗普总统的语境中，“两周”这个说法其实没什么实质意义。

Very memorably, it was used during the pandemic, but it was two weeks to stop the spread. And guys, we remember it was anything but two weeks. So there is really no end date to this. And there's no clear, clear way that this conflict could end. So some reports suggest that more ships are entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

令人难忘的是，这句话在疫情期间被使用过，说的是“用两周时间遏制疫情传播”。但大家都记得，这绝对不止两周。所以，这件事情其实没有明确的结束日期。而且也没有一个清晰的方法来结束这场冲突。有报道指出，越来越多的船只正在进出霍尔木兹海峡。

Reports suggest that there is a $2 million toll to enter the Strait of Hormuz and a $2 million to exit. And that is, of course, to be paid in R&B to bank accounts in China. So that could be really what Iran is shooting for, for their endgame, some degree of tollbooth system. So $4 million roundtrip is actually not a lot of money, especially at current oil prices and how desperate many countries are for oil.

据报道，进入霍尔木兹海峡需要支付200万美元的费用，离开时也需支付200万美元。而且，这笔费用需要以人民币支付到中国的银行账户。伊朗可能正是想通过这种方式，建立一个某种程度上的“收费站”系统。因此，400万美元的往返费用其实并不算多，尤其考虑到当前的油价和许多国家对石油的迫切需求。

So that's potential exit path. Again, I don't think the US and Israel would like that. A ground invasion, also a potential path. If that were to be the case, it would be a quagmire. And also recall that Iran continues to have escalation, a potential to escalate here. So kind of like a suicide bomber, they have promised to attack all the Gulf oil, all Gulf facilities if they would continue to be attacked.

所以这就是一个可能的解决途径。不过我认为美国和以色列不会喜欢这种方式。地面入侵也是一种可能的选择，但如果发生这种情况，将会陷入泥潭。此外，我们要记住，伊朗仍有可能在这里升级冲突。就像自杀式炸弹袭击一样，他们曾扬言，如果持续受到攻击，他们将袭击海湾地区的所有石油和设施。

Now reports suggest that last night, this morning, some of their petrochemical industries were attacked and maybe they retaliate. If that were the case, oil prices will continue to rise. If there was a ground invasion, they could also, of course, destroy a lot of the capacity of the Gulf states to produce oil, that would send oil permanently higher because it would be a permanent shortage that even opening the Strait of Hormuz would not solve. That would be terrible. Now, I hear some reports saying that, guys, this is not going to affect the US because the US is energy independent. That is totally, totally wrong. An easy way to see this is to just look at the price of the pump. Even though the Strait of Hormuz is closed, you can see that gas prices in the US continue to increase.

现在有报道称，昨晚和今天早上，他们的一些石化工业遭到了攻击，可能他们会进行报复。如果情况确实如此，油价将继续上涨。如果发生地面入侵，他们当然也可能摧毁海湾国家的大量石油生产能力，这将导致油价永久上涨，因为这将造成一个即使开放霍尔木兹海峡也无法解决的永久性短缺。这将是非常可怕的。现在，我听到一些报道说，这不会影响美国，因为美国实现了能源独立。这完全错误。一个简单的判断方法就是看看油价。即使霍尔木兹海峡关闭，你也会发现美国的汽油价格仍在上涨。

The reason is very simple. Oil is a global market. So, in a global market, when some regions have shortages, then they will bid for oil in other regions. So, let's say Japan or someone bidding for LNG that was destined for Europe just to make sure that they have supplies. So, other countries can come and try to buy US oil and US refined products because they are short of oil that they would have got from the Gulf that pushes US prices up. And so, at the end of the day, US consumers face higher oil prices. That's good for US oil companies, but everyone else will have to pay higher prices. If you have a permanent decline in supply of oil, that is a global recession. The US will suffer. It will suffer less than other countries because they produce oil, but they will still be worse off.

原因非常简单。石油是一个全球市场。因此，在全球市场中，当某些地区出现短缺时，它们会在其他地区竞购石油。比如，日本或者其他国家可能会购买本来运往欧洲的液化天然气，以确保它们有足够的供应。同样，其他国家也可能会来购买美国的石油和精炼产品，因为它们缺少从海湾地区获取的石油，这就会推高美国的油价。最终，美国消费者将面临更高的油价。这对美国石油公司来说是好事，但其他人都得支付更高的价格。如果石油供应持续下降，那么全球经济将陷入衰退。虽然美国会受到影响，但由于美国本身有石油生产，受影响程度会比其他国家小一些，不过情况依然会变得更糟。

All right. So, this is not in any way beneficial for the US. A global recession is bad for everyone. Oh, one other note that I would like to make, since I hear this a lot, it's about the quote-unquote petrodollar system. So, again, Iran is receiving payment in RMB and depositing in China, obviously, as a way to avoid US sanctions. So, the petrodollar system is something that is kind of more of a historic relic than something that's relevant today. So, once upon a time, the US and Saudi Arabia had an agreement, and this is a secret agreement, whereas Saudi Arabia, against selling oil to the US, receives a bunch of dollars, would reinvest those dollars into US treasuries and dollar assets, and in exchange, of course, receive military protection from the US.

好的。那么，这对美国没有任何好处。全球经济衰退对每个人都是不利的。哦，我还想补充一点，因为我经常听到人们提到这个所谓的“石油美元体系”。再说一次，伊朗通过人民币结算，并将款项存入中国银行，显然是为了规避美国的制裁。因此，石油美元体系如今更像是一个历史遗迹，而不是一个与当今相关的概念。曾几何时，美国和沙特阿拉伯有一个秘密协议，根据这个协议，沙特阿拉伯在出售石油给美国时，收取大量美元，并将这些美元再投资于美国国债和美元资产，作为交换，自然也得到美国的军事保护。

Now, for the decades since that, of course, Saudi Arabia made tremendous amounts of money selling oil and did indeed increase their treasury holdings, which, until a decade ago, were actually secret. Even today, though, their full holdings are not fully disclosed since they can hide it in foreign custodians. So, it's not easy to disentangle. However, though, that system where you sell oil to the US, take dollars and reinvest into dollar assets, that system basically ended about a decade ago. The reason being that, and you can see this chart from Bedser to help you understand, the reason being that the oil countries really weren't making that much of a surplus.

近年来，沙特阿拉伯通过出售石油赚取了巨额资金，并确实增加了他们的国债持有量。直到十年前，这些持有量实际上都是保密的。即便是现在，他们的全部持有量也没有完全公开，因为他们可以通过外国托管机构隐藏这些资产，所以很难彻底搞清楚。然而，这种把石油卖给美国、换取美元然后再投资于美元资产的模式，基本上在大约十年前就结束了。原因在于石油国家实际上并没有赚取那么多的盈余，你可以通过Bedser的这张图表来更好地理解这个问题。

So, oil prices went lower in part due to competition from US shale, but also the spending of the Gulf states increased as well. Saudi Arabia promised more benefits and began to invest more of their surplus into their own country, trying to diversify their economy. So, for the past decade, the dollar proceeds of oil sales from the Gulf countries just really hasn't been that big of a factor, big of a marginal demand for US dollar assets. So, that system is more of a description of what happened in the past than how it is today. And like most things in markets, the system is always changing. And so, what was true one era is not true today, and that will continue to happen.

所以，石油价格下跌部分是由于美国页岩油的竞争，但也因为海湾国家的支出增加。沙特阿拉伯承诺提供更多福利，并开始将其盈余更多地投资于本国，以努力实现经济多元化。因此，过去十年中，海湾国家的石油销售收入对美国美元资产的需求影响并不大。所以，这个制度更多的是过去的一个描述，而不是当今的状况。就像市场中的大多数事情一样，制度总是在变化。因此，过去的事实在今天可能不再成立，这种变化还会继续发生。

All right. So, this morning, the president tweeted out a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran. Obviously, he's very mad that the US fightership was shot down. So, it looks like we're going to have further escalation. The US is very much a policy, looking at President Trump's temperament, that he's just going to be keep escalating until the opposite side breaks. And if it doesn't break, if they don't break, this could really get out of hand. Remember, US and Israel are nuclear powers. I don't think the US would use nuclear weapons, but it's possible that Israel could. This is a very dangerous situation. I hope everyone is very careful. All right. That's all I prepared. Talk to you guys next week. Thank you.

好的。今天早上，总统在推特上向伊朗发出了48小时的最后通牒。显而易见，他对美国战斗机被击落一事非常愤怒。目前看来，局势可能会进一步升级。根据对特朗普总统性格的了解，美国的政策通常是持续升级，直到对方妥协。如果对方不妥协，情况可能会失控。请记住，美国和以色列都是拥有核武器的国家。我认为美国不太可能使用核武器，但以色列有可能。这是一个非常危险的局面，希望大家都多加小心。好了，这就是我准备的全部内容。下周再和大家联系。谢谢。